Posted: 4/21/26 at 6:49pm
Jeffrey Karasarides said: "As I alluded to earlier, if Schmigadoon! were to lose Best Book, but still win Best Musical, it would need to take a major above the line category to go with it. In fact, when the New York Times mentioned in their 2024 Tony voter survey thatThe Outsiderswas ahead in Best Musical, I settled on that in my final predictions. I also predicted it would take Book to go with it as I knew it would seem odd foraBest Musical winner to not take home any major above the line awards.Fossewas the last show topull that off wayback in 1999. In the end, The Outsiders did win a major above the line award to suggest its Best Musical prize, just not the one I expected."
Nothing “needs” to win anything in order to win for anything else. Art and Clybourne Park won Best Play without winning in any other categories. A Strange Loop was nominated in 11 categories but only won Best Musical and Best Book (which in your definition I guess counts as ‘above the line’ but was still dwarfed by the 4 wins for MJ - and looking at what’s running today, one could argue that in that case ‘above the line’ ultimately didn’t mean much).
Remember too that we’re liable to get a skewed read on how the awards are shaping up since a few major entries (Cats and Titanique) won’t be eligible for precursors like Drama Desk and Outer Critics, having been eligible in previous years. (Hence today’s 11 Outer Critics noms for The Lost Boys before it’s even opened; that could be a change in momentum, but more likely reminds me of the year when 9 to 5 got a leading 15 Drama Desk nominations before it opened, on its way to receiving four Tony noms.)
Nothing happens in a vacuum, obviously, and in a consensus year there tends to be a cluster of big categories that go for 1 or 2 shows while others get shut out. This year? I could easily see a situation where (for example) Two Strangers wins Score, Titanique wins Book, Ragtime wins Direction, Cats wins Choreography, The Lost Boys wins several Design awards, and Schmigadoon wins Best Musical (along with orchestration or something else). In a scattered year like this one, all bets are off and results could well be scattered.
(But my money’s on Schmigadoon for Book.)
Updated On: 4/21/26 at 06:49 PM