Show Closures Before Spring (speculation)

[theatrejunkie007]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 2:41pm

Is it safe to say that these are the most likely candidates for impending closures (the ones that aren't announced, or limited run) that would make way for some new shows in the Spring? No particular order:

1. Chicago

2. Hell's Kitchen

3. Six

4. Stranger Things

 

 

 

 

[DCS]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 2:58pm

theatrejunkie007 said: "Is it safe to say that these are the most likely candidates for impending closures (the ones that aren't announced, or limited run)that would make way for some new shows in the Spring? No particular order:

1. Chicago

2. Hell's Kitchen

3. Six

4. Stranger Things


Chicago and Six aren't going anywhere at this point.  The Weisslers will keep Chicago going and Six has low running costs and is still probably close to making its weekly nut.  Stranger Things is very likely a goner and possibly Hell's Kitchen. I would also keep and eye on Gatsby and Moulin Rouge with their very high weekly running costs as potential closers by the end of the year.




"

 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 3:03pm

Chicago? lolol

[BorisTomashevsky]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 3:10pm

Yeah Chicago (and TLK and Wicked) all have eternal immunity I’d say. Everything else will close one day (including Hamilton), and everything yet to open will close one day. 

But not those three.

[Birdie Boy]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 3:15pm

&julist seems at risk.  I hope moulin rouge can keep it going 

[jimmycurry01]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 3:21pm

Chicago is eternal. It's essentially a staged concert. It costs very little to run, and almost assuredly makes enough every week to pay the bills. Chicago is the cockroach of Broadway. It could survive a nuclear holocaust.

[BorisTomashevsky]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 3:28pm

jimmycurry01 said: "Chicago is eternal. It's essentially a staged concert. It costs very little to run, and almost assuredly makes enough every week to pay the bills. Chicago is the cockroach of Broadway. It could survive a nuclear holocaust."

And really, the Weisslers deserve every penny. They took that initial risk. And they’ve been very nicely rewarded for it.

[Birdie Boy]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 3:30pm

They’re also shameless with their casting. Chicago is the bottom of the barrel, dusty and tired, they’ll throw anyone in the show 

[quizking101]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 3:31pm

CHICAGO? Girl, that show will outlive the actual city itself with the way things are these days.

SIX is also remarkably cheap to run and since it’s operating on pure profit, they pretty much can close at their leisure unless the Nederlanders get their hands on a show worth kicking SIX out for. (And it will still probably go to NWS after)

I think many people are betting on the new season of STRANGER THINGS to bring this massive business boom to the play, but the question is going to be how much money Netflix is going to be willing to light on fire in the hope that the long game will succeed. 

I will say that, in terms of massively large productions, I think HARRY POTTER will likely shutter after Tom Felton’s run finishes in May since it’s not making nearly as much as it used to. It recouped back in late 2022, but now they run the risk of burning off profits by going past the sell-by date. I also think MOULIN ROUGE is at great risk since the stunt casting doesn’t seem to be helping like it once was (if it ever really did).

GATSBY is a weird nut to crack since it could go downhill any moment but it’s still somehow running. It’s not like the precipitous downfall of CABARET. I’m wondering if they are considering any of the London performers (Corbin Bleu, Rachel Tucker, etc) for a Broadway run. Also, that theatre is not the most desirable, and so I can imagine that the Shuberts will keep them aboard until something better comes along.

[quizking101]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 3:33pm

Birdie Boy said: "They’re also shameless with their casting. Chicago is the bottomof the barrel, dusty and tired, they’ll throw anyone in the show"

David Merrick walked, so the Weisslers could run, so the “Oh Mary” casting team could fly.

[Ensemble1711444445]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 3:58pm

Juliet still in profit. Low running costs. Moulin Rouge is in the red. High running costs. 

 

[Birdie Boy]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 4:08pm

I’d suggest courting Jessie J for Satine.  Apparently she was interested in Cabaret on Broadway so maybe she’d want to do Moulin Rogue.  They definitely need a decent pop star to come in for the winter.  

[ChiDoc]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 4:10pm

Chicago also has the benefit of being in the Ambassador, which isn't exactly a sought-after house.  There's truly nothing stopping the show from running through infinity.

[Birdie Boy]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 4:14pm

How much is their actual weekly nut?

[quizking101]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 4:32pm

ChiDoc said: "Chicago also has the benefit of being in the Ambassador, which isn't exactly a sought-after house. There's truly nothing stopping the show from running through infinity."

I’m curious that if/when CHICAGO does close (in a decade that far succeeds our own), they will renovate it like they did with the Majestic. 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 6:58pm

I don't know about the backstage, but that theatre has a fundamental issue that is probably not solvable, unless they turn it into a 600 - 700 theatre tor some non-profit.  It's orchestra and front mezzanine are so wide that they have a ridiculous number of bad seats.  No show will ever WANT to go into the Ambassador unless perhaps a one-person show with no scenery. 

IMO the Winter Garden also has a horrible number of very far side seats, but it has never posed a problem.  I guess its location and size play a big role in that.

[Timon3]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 7:23pm

A show that has recouped can cut its operating costs, that is why Hadestown, Six, Book of Mormon and Chicago are still running, all those 4 shows could easily move to off Broadway.

[OhHiii]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 7:32pm

I asked this in the grosses thread before I saw this one existed but I really feel like Moulin Rouge is on a death march. Not for nothing but the Hirschfeld could be a prime option for Evita in the spring….

[Birdie Boy]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 9:11pm

Moulin Rouge is gonna get someone big to come in, I just know it 

[Ensemble1711444445]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 9:15pm

 

Updated On: 9/4/25 at 09:15 PM

[Birdie Boy]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 9:25pm

Why r u pushing them out the door?  Do you know their numbers?  They’ve made just under a million week by week

[rosscoe(au)]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 9:26pm

Moulin Rouge is still paying for the disaster that was King Kong on Broadway and initial season in Melbourne Australia. 

[JSquared2]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 9:28pm

Timon3 said: "A show that has recouped can cut its operating costs, that is why Hadestown, Six, Book of Mormon and Chicago are still running, all those 4 shows could easily move to off Broadway."


Hardly any of those things are true. After a show recoups, a lot of the creative team will get a higher royalty, and the fixed costs don’t go down (rent, advertising, rentals, etc).

SIX is the only one of those shows that could transfer to Off Broadway without a major overhaul. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 9:28pm

At this point, I feel like Moulin Rouge has been running so long that it will get a long runway from announcement to closure (same with Hadestown and Mormon and of course Chicago, not that Chicago will ever close). So if we don't hear anything soon, I don't think MR is closing before spring since it'll probably be several months between announcement and actual closing date with possibly an extension if an announcement boosts sales back up.

I think Hell's Kitchen or Gatsby are next as far as closing announcements.

[theatrejunkie007]

Posted: 9/3/25 at 9:47pm

Where exactly can operating costs be cut, once recouped?

Updated On: 9/3/25 at 09:47 PM