PLAYS POSITIVE MIXED NEGATIVE
Cost of Living 14 1 0 (Pulitzer)
Prima Facie 13 1 0 (Olivier)
Old Man/Pool 13 1 0
Leopoldstadt 12 2 1 (Olivier)
Rivrside & Cray 11 0 1 (Pulitzer)
Life Of Pi 10 4 0 (Olivier)
Ain't No Mo' 10 0 1
Peter...Wrong 9 4 0
Summer, 1976 9 3 1
Fat Ham 9 2 1 (Pulitzer)
Xmas Carol 8 3 1
Gdnight Oscar 5 4 3
Thanksgiving 5 4 3
Pictures..Home 4 7 1
Kite Runner 2 5 4
Collaboration 1 6 6
Walking..Ghosts 1 4 5
Broadway Star Joined: 6/25/18
PipingHotPiccolo said: "Jarethan said: "Call_me_jorge said: "Considering how panned the the funny girl Revival was, I highly doubt Lea Michele would have even been nominated had she opened the production."
Are you saying this to get a rise out of people, because I think that may be the stupidest thing posted on this board in at least a year. IMO she would have won by a landslide, though neither of us could prove our position."
I agree that she would have been nominated, but I seriously wonder if the adoration would have been this over the top without the narrative of "shes coming in to save the show after NOT getting the role initially" and in THAT context, its hard to see her (at that point more fresh off her "cancellation" beating Joaquina in a show about racial issues. Woulda been a different universe and we'll never really know.
Still think the Parade v Sweeney (and maybe ITW) contest is going to be the most intense, as the number of nominations/buzz will likely clue us into the rest."
Yeah I agree - I think if Lea had opened Funny Girl the whole narrative around her in the show would have been totally different, and much more negative. For starters the theatre vultures on social media woulda been calling her out constantly, much in the same way that the Jagged Little Pill controversies kinda overwhelmed it in the end.
jkcohen626 said: "TikTok seems to have gone all in for Shucked (including for score) and kinda dropped Kimberly Akimbo.
Very fascinating to see some of that show's biggest (former) evangelists now going all-in on a new show that has not been received nearly as positively everywhere besides TikTok (it seems to have received generally positive reviews across the internet, but not in the way that some TikTokers ADORE it).
I'll be seeing the show between noms and awards and I'm very curious to see how I like it."
If this is how things worked in reality, Mean Girls or SpongeBob would have been the winner of 10 Tonys.
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/24/14
REVIVAL PLAYS POSITIVE MIXED NEGATIVE
Topdog/Underdog 14 1 0
Death of a Salesman 11 5 0
The Piano Lesson 10 4 0
Ohio States Murders 10 3 0
A Doll's House 9 4 2
The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window - - -
Unless something goes really wrong with ''Sidney'', the play revivals this season were really stellar. I don't even know which 2 will be left at the Tonys
Broadway Legend Joined: 2/10/11
PipingHotPiccolo said: "Jarethan said: "Call_me_jorge said: "Considering how panned the the funny girl Revival was, I highly doubt Lea Michele would have even been nominated had she opened the production."
Are you saying this to get a rise out of people, because I think that may be the stupidest thing posted on this board in at least a year. IMO she would have won by a landslide, though neither of us could prove our position."
I agree that she would have been nominated, but I seriously wonder if the adoration would have been this over the top without the narrative of "shes coming in to save the show after NOT getting the role initially" and in THAT context, its hard to see her (at that point more fresh off her "cancellation" beating Joaquina in a show about racial issues. Woulda been a different universe and we'll never really know.
Still think the Parade v Sweeney (and maybe ITW) contest is going to be the most intense, as the number of nominations/buzz will likely clue us into the rest."
A few comments:
— JK was in a mega-flop
— JK’s role was not huge. IMO she won the Tony for one song. (Don’t misunderstand me…she was excellent, but Fanny Brice is a monumentally large and challenging role).
— Best Actress in a Musical was not a great category last year. The inclusion of LM would have changed the dynamic.
Clearly, no way of knowing, but I don’t think JK would have won in most seasons. She was fortunate that there was no standout competition last year.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/14/11
Jarethan said: "Clearly, no way of knowing, but I don’t think JK would have won in most seasons. She was fortunate that there was no standout competition last year."
I'd hardly say there was no standout competition. Both Sharon D. Clarke and Mare Winningham were highly acclaimed and Sutton Foster had a lot of supporters clamoring for a 3rd Tony for her as well. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that was one of the most competitive Tony Best Actress races in a while.
Could Lea have won? Certainly. But Joaquina was one of those performances that just really caught on at the right moment and perfectly built up that momentum to Tony night. So my guess is she still would have won it head-to-head, especially if she was already able to beat those other three.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/14/11
MadsonMelo said: "REVIVAL PLAYS POSITIVE MIXED NEGATIVE
Topdog/Underdog 14 1 0
Death of a Salesman 11 5 0
The Piano Lesson 10 4 0
Ohio States Murders 10 3 0
A Doll's House 9 4 2
The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window - - -
Unless something goes really wrong with ''Sidney'', the play revivals this season were really stellar. I don't even know which 2 will be left at the Tonys"
This is definitely one of the more fascinating races to watch. I feel like Salesman and Piano Lesson are locked in and barring a surprising negative response to Sidney, it likely gets in as well (although I do wonder if there is any backlash to them swooping in at the last second with virtually no preview period to be eligible in time). My gut feeling says Doll's House gets the last slot since it's still open, but Topdog was highly acclaimed as well (and Murders definitely has a shot still, but I feel it's the least likely to get in). Would not at all be stunned if the vote is close enough to give us 5 nominees.
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/24/14
Broadway61004 said: "MadsonMelo said: "REVIVAL PLAYS POSITIVE MIXED NEGATIVE
Topdog/Underdog 14 1 0
Death of a Salesman 11 5 0
The Piano Lesson 10 4 0
Ohio States Murders 10 3 0
A Doll's House 9 4 2
The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window - - -
Unless something goes really wrong with ''Sidney'', the play revivals this season were really stellar. I don't even know which 2 will be left at the Tonys"
This is definitely one of the more fascinating races to watch. I feel like Salesman and Piano Lesson are locked in and barring a surprising negative response to Sidney, it likely gets in as well (although I do wonder if there is any backlash to them swooping in at the last second with virtually no preview period to be eligible in time). My gut feeling says Doll's House gets the last slot since it's still open, but Topdog was highly acclaimed as well (and Murders definitely has a shot still, but I feel it's the least likely to get in). Would not at all be stunned if the vote is close enough to give us 5 nominees."
I want to believe that the nominators saw Topdog/Underdog and will repeat the acclaim from critics. There were ''''detractors'' to both Salesman and Piano, especially the latter, while everyone loved ''Topdog''.
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/24/14
People nominated for Drama Desk, Drama League and Outer Critics
Outstanding Lead Performance in a Musical
Micaela Diamond, Parade
J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like it Hot
Anna Uzele, New York, New York
Outstanding Featured Performance in a Musical
Alex Newell, Shucked
Outstanding Lead Performance in a Play
Hiran Abeysekera, Life of Pi
Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House
Jodie Comer, Prima Facie
Sean Hayes, Good Night, Oscar
Audra McDonald, Ohio State Murders
Outstanding Featured Performance in a Play
Danielle Brooks, The Piano Lesson
Sharon D Clarke, Death of a Salesman
I believe all these get at the Tonys, maybe Uzele will be left out?
We still have the Chita Rivera, but being mainly for dancers, it's not fair to put together with the other 3.
Is there still another eligibility meeting before Tuesday? I feel like we didn't hear about the second wave of rulings?
Mr. Wormwood said: "Is there still another eligibility meeting before Tuesday? I feel like we didn't hear about the second wave of rulings?"
We've had two rulings, one for the whole fall and one for everything that opened before the past week or so. We are still missing for the last slew of late-April openings though. Most shouldn't be controversial, but the ruling regarding New York, New York's eligibility for best score could shake up that category!
Broadway Star Joined: 10/14/21
My final batch of predictions in the musical categories before Tuesday:
Best Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Potential Swap: New York, New York for A Beautiful Noise
Best Revival of a Musical
Camelot
Into the Woods
Parade
Sweeney Todd
Potential Swap: Camelot for Dancin’
Best Actress in a Musical
Annaleigh Ashford, Sweeney Todd
Sara Bareilles, Into the Woods
Victoria Clark, Kimberly Akimbo
Micaela Diamond, Parade
Phillipa Soo, Camelot
Anna Uzele, New York, New York
Potential Swap: I’m predicting we get six nominees here. The competition is just so incredibly dense this year. If anything, maybe Soo or Uzele get swapped out for Lorna Courtney in & Juliet.
Best Actor in a Musical
Andrew Burnap, Camelot
J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like It Hot
Josh Groban, Sweeney Todd
Ben Platt, Parade
Will Swenson, A Beautiful Noise
Potential Swap: Andrew or Will for Brian D’Arcy James, Into the Woods or Christian Borle, Some Like It Hot
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Alli Mauzey, Kimberly Akimbo
Ruthie Ann Miles, Sweeney Todd
Bonnie Milligan, Kimberly Akimbo
Phillipa Soo, Into the Woods
Betsy Wolfe, & Juliet
Potential Swap: Alli or Ruthie for Robyn Hurder, A Beautiful Noise or NaTasha Yvette Williams, Some Like It Hot
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Justin Cooley, Kimberly Akimbo
Jordan Donica, Camelot
Alex Joseph Grayson, Parade
Gaten Matarazzo, Sweeney Todd
Alex Newell, Shucked
Potential Swap: Donica for Kevin Del Aguila, Some Like It Hot or Steven Boyer, Kimberly Akimbo
Awaiting the final determinations today to see if they throw any curveballs!
Does anyone happen to know WHEN the nominators are voting? It's always bizarre that the Tonys don't announce this. I believe there were a few years when they voted on the same day of final determinations (which would be today) but other times it has been a few days later (Monday?).
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/14/11
MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Awaiting the final determinations today to see if they throw any curveballs!
Does anyone happen to know WHEN the nominators are voting? It's always bizarre that the Tonys don't announce this. I believe there were a few years when they voted on the same day of final determinations (which would be today) but other times it has been a few days later (Monday?)."
I don't think they formally announced it, but I believe recently they've been doing it on Monday, so I'm guessing that's the case this year?
Really interested in how they rule for Camelot's book and NYNY's score as those will massively shake up those races. I also keep having this crazy suspicion that they're going to do something truly bizarre and rule both Burnap and Donica leading for Camelot, especially with the emphasis this revival places on the love triangle. Highly unlikely, of course, but they're always good for at least one insane ruling.
Featured Actor Joined: 3/1/10
The Time Out New York (TONY) nominations list is out. Not predictions, but, rather, who they would nominate if they could:
https://www.timeout.com/newyork/theater/the-2023-tony-nominations
Barring any major shockers (and looking ahead a bit), it appears that Kimberly Akimbo will be the first musical to take home the Triple Crown since there were four straight Triple Crown winners from 2015-2018.
GoldDerby Tony Predictions
https://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/editor-predictions/tony-awards-nominations-2023-predictions/best-musical/sort/recent/
Robbie2 said: "GoldDerby Tony Predictions
https://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/editor-predictions/tony-awards-nominations-2023-predictions/best-musical/sort/recent/"
A few truly WTF choices in there haha. But who knows - always some surprises in the noms
Broadway61004 said: "MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Awaiting the final determinations today to see if they throw any curveballs!
Does anyone happen to know WHEN the nominators are voting? It's always bizarre that the Tonys don't announce this. I believe there were a few years when they voted on the same day of final determinations (which would be today) but other times it has been a few days later (Monday?)."
I don't think they formally announced it, but I believe recently they've been doing it on Monday, so I'm guessing that's the case this year?
Really interested in how they rule for Camelot's book and NYNY's score as those will massively shake up those races. I also keep having this crazy suspicion that they're going to do something truly bizarre and rule both Burnap and Donica leading for Camelot, especially with the emphasis this revival places on the love triangle. Highly unlikely, of course, but they're always good for at least one insane ruling."
Heard Monday by noon
I posted preliminary predictions in the Way Too Early thread but here are my final Tony nomination predictions for musical categories (I don't follow plays closely enough).
Best Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Best Revival of a Musical
Camelot
Into the Woods
Parade
Sweeney Todd
Best Lead Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle, Some Like It Hot
J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like It Hot
Josh Groban, Sweeney Todd
Ben Platt, Parade
Will Swenson, A Beautiful Noise
Best Lead Actress in a Musical
Annaleigh Ashford, Sweeney Todd
Sara Bareilles, Into the Woods
Victoria Clark, Kimberly Akimbo
Micaela Diamond, Parade
Anna Uzele, New York, New York
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Justin Cooley, Kimberly Akimbo
Gavin Creel, Into the Woods
Jordan Donica, Camelot
Gaten Matarazzo, Sweeney Todd
Alex Newell, Shucked
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Ruthie Ann Miles, Sweeney Todd
Bonnie Milligan, Kimberly Akimbo
Philippa Soo, Into the Woods
Natasha Yvette Williams, Some Like It Hot
Betsy Wolfe, & Juliet
Best Director of a Musical
Michael Arden, Parade
Lear deBessonet, Into the Woods
Thomas Kail, Sweeney Todd
Jack O'Brien, Shucked
Jessica Stone, Kimberly Akimbo
Best Original Score
Kimberly Akimbo
Leopoldstat
Life of Pi
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Best Book of a Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Best Choreography
& Juliet
KPOP
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Parade
Shucked
Sweeney Todd
Best Costume Design of a Musical
& Juliet
Camelot
Parade
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
& Juliet
Camelot
New York, New York
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd
Best Sound Design of a Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
Parade
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd
Best Orchestrations
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
TOTALS
Some Like It Hot - 11
Kimberly Akimbo - 10
Sweeney Todd - 10
& Juliet - 8
Shucked - 8
New York, New York - 7
Parade - 7
Into the Woods - 5
Camelot - 4
A Beautiful Noise - 1
KPOP - 1
1776 - 0
Almost Famous - 0
Bad Cinderella - 0
Dancin' - 0
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/27/19
Robbie2 said: "GoldDerby Tony Predictions
https://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/editor-predictions/tony-awards-nominations-2023-predictions/best-musical/sort/recent/"
It's worth noting that only the most recent three were updated this month. The others were last updated in March, long before a lot of shows opened and the response to them was seen. I have a feeling those predictions would be different now.
Understudy Joined: 11/15/13
I saw Kimberly Akimbo tonight (having seen & Juliet several months ago) and really liked it but was not blown away. I think that Akimbo is technically a better written show so would win book and (obviously) score, but Juliet was (at least for me) more impactful over all. As for performances, I would honestly put Clark, Milligan, Mauzey, Courtney, and Wolfe all at about the same level so the awards could go any way (Milligan has the flashiest role of the bunch but I don’t necessarily think that gives her an edge). I don’t think any of the men in either show will be nominated (I saw phenomenal understudies for Cooley and Walker but don’t think the roles are meaty enough to beat out a Leo Frank, Lancelot, etc).
These are my two cents having only seen these two shows from this season, but I think Akimbo will win the most awards but will not sweep.
Swing Joined: 11/12/18
Chase Miller said: "Is there any chance the Tony committee makes an exception for Lea Michele? Maybe that’s a dumb question but genuinely curious."
Absolutely not.
Swing Joined: 11/12/18
Phillyguy said:
That said, Lea’s performance is in a league of its own. Plenty of people who have seen it think it’s the best performance they’ve seen in their lifetime. So I wouldn’t be upset if she gets a special Tony. Even without the Tony, she may still get a Grammy to acknowledge her incredible performance."
You gotta be kidding me! The best performance they've seen in their lifetimes? How old are they? Five months? I understand that the first actress cast in the revival set the bar very low, but the hype around Lea's performance is a mystery to me.
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