Jonathan Cohen said: "I was curious if Tim Minchin is correct that Broadway can only sustain two new hit musicals at once, so I did some quick research using recouping as a proxy for being a hit. During the last 10 years, he's probably directionally right but there's not enough data transparency to know how many shows you're not personally involved in turn a profit.
For example, Disney doesn't announce if their shows recoup. SurelyAladdin recouped but did Frozen after825 performances? No clue. Also,should a show like Something Rotten! be considered a hit? They didn't recoup on Broadway, but came close enough that the lead producer said they likely would after going on tour.
Anyway, it is possible to have three new hit musicals on Broadway per calendar year (I didn't look per season), but that's probably it.
New Broadway Musicals That Recouped In the Last 10 Years
2022: MJ
2021: Six
2019:Moulin Rouge!, Hadestown, Freestyle Love Supreme
2018:Mean GIrls, Ain’t Too Proud
2017:The Band’s Visit, Come From Away
2016:Dear Evan Hansen, Waitress
2015:Hamilton, School of Rock, Fun Home
2014:Beautiful: The Carole King Musical, Aladdin (probably)
2013:A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, Kinky Boots, Matilda the Musical
Where the competition is more a zero sum game, is the Tonys. Winning a Best Musical Tony would have really helpedGroundhog Day financially and it came out in a season where all 4 nominated shows were good enough to win. That's not normally the case."
I think your years are a bit off as Hamilton and Waitress were technically in the same season. Same with Come From Away and Dear Evan Hansen.
To my knowledge, 2006 was a big year with Light in the Piazza, Spamalot, and Spelling Bee all being hits.