NYJoe said: "And for better or worse, Come From Away is consistently labeled as something like "the feel-good musical to see in 2017 because Trump is president and everyone needs a reminder that regular people are good." I haven't seen the musical, so I don't have any opinion, but that seems like a tricky line to walk during a Tony campaign.
Maybe the show's promoters can pull it off, but doesn't that leave it vulnerable to arguments that it won't age well, that its victory would be viewed as a fluke fueled by a desire to hold hands in the wake of Trump's election? Dear Evan Hansen has Ben Platt, a strong cast, and a resonant message of its own that draws young people to the theatre (and is not linked to election results).
I don't think CFA will have any problem aging well - after all, it's already about an event 16 years ago, and we remember it like it was yesterday; the only reason it's being mentioned in relation to today's news is because of fortuitous (?) timing. The screen-staring, texting teens of DEH are more likely to seem dated in ten years, not the kind-hearted people of Gander. And DEH won't always have Ben Platt.
I do think you should see CFA, though, as it's hard to assess a show without knowing what's in it...
I thought I was clear, but perhaps I wasn't, that I wasn't making an argument about what should win; instead, my speculation was about what will win. I have only seen two of the new musicals, and won't be back in New York City again before the Tony Awards. Whenever I see Come From Away, I may well decide that it's a much better musical than the other nominees. I'm not qualified to even offer an opinion about what should win.
Further, I wasn't getting into what would tour better. I actually think Come From Away should tour fairly well. I'm not sure will have quite the same resonance outside of New York City, and "feel-good 9/11 musical" is not the easiest sell, but it's gotten plenty of positive comments on this board and in reviews. People seem to really like the show, and it's done well in other cities. Shoot, I was standing in line for Dear Evan Hansen, listening to a guy in his 20s talk with great enthusiasm about Come From Away, which of course is playing across the street. Plus, it's the sort of show that doesn't need stars or even familiar names to tour well.
I was raising a question about Tony Award voting and wondering if some of the response (even the favorable response) to Come From Away will give voters second thoughts about awarding it the highest prize, especially if it's matched against a single rival. I can see it more easily winning in a three-horse race. That could be totally wrong, as could the assumptions in media accounts that there are only two serious contenders.
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