Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

[kurtal]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 6:28pm

Play

Dana H
Is This a Room
The Lehman Trilogy
Pass Over
Skeleton Crew

Musical

A Strange Loop
Girl from the North Country
MJ The Musical
Mr Saturday Night
Six

Play Revival

for colored girls...
How I Learned to Drive
Macbeth
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind

Best Musical Revival

Caroline, or Change
Company
Funny Girl
The Music Man

Leading Actor (Play)

Daniel Craig (Macbeth)
David Morse (How I Learned to Drive)
Laurence Fishburne (American Buffalo)
Matthew Broderick (Plaza Suite)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Lackawanna Blues)

Leading Actress (Play)

Deirdre O'Connell (Dana H)
LaChanze (Trouble in Mind)
Mary-Louise Parker (How I Learned to Drive)
Phylicia Rashad (Skeleton Crew)
Ruth Negga (Macbeth)

Leading Actor (Musical)

Billy Crystal (Mr Saturday Night)
Hugh Jackman (The Music Man)
Jaquel Spivey (A Strange Loop)
Myles Frost (MJ)
Rob McClure (Mrs Doubtfire)

Leading Actress (Musical)

Beanie Feldstein (Funny Girl)
Carmen Cusack (Flying Over Sunset)
Katrina Lenk (Company)
Sharon D Clarke (Caroline, or Change)
Sutton Foster (The Music Man)

Featured Actor (Play)

Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Take Me Out)
Jesse Williams (Take Me Out)
Michael Zegen (Trouble in Mind)
Ron Cephas Jones (Clyde's)
Sam Rockwell (American Buffalo)

Featured Actress (Play)

Alana Raquel Bowers (Chicken & Biscuits)
Chanté Adams (Skeleton Crew)
Jessica Frances Dukes (Trouble in Mind)
Kara Young (Clyde's)
Uzo Aduba (Clyde's)

Featured Actor (Musical)

Jared Grimes (Funny Girl)
Matt Doyle (Company)
Quentin Earl Darrington (MJ)
Robert Sella (Flying Over Sunset)
Shuler Hensley (The Music Man)

Featured Actress (Musical)

Jane Lynch (Funny Girl)
Jenn Gambatese (Mrs Doubtfire)
Jennifer Simard (Company)
Kimber Elayne Sprawl (Girl from the North Country)
Patti LuPone (Company)

Direction (Play)

Camille A Brown (for colored girls...)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Skeleton Crew)
Sam Mendes (The Lehman Trilogy)
Scott Ellis (Take Me Out
Tina Satter (Is This a Room)

Direction (Musical)

Jerry Zaks (The Music Man)
Marianne Ellis (Company)
Michael Longhurst (Caroline, or Change)
Michael Mayer (Funny Girl)
Stephen Bracket (A Strange Loop)

Book (Musical)

A Strange Loop
Girl from the North Country
MJ
Mr Saturday Night
Paradise Square

Score

A Strange Loop
Flying Over Sunset
Mr Saturday Night
Paradise Square
Six

Choreography

for colored girls...
Funny Girl
MJ
Mr Saturday Night
The Music Man

Scenic Design (Play)

Clyde's
The Lehman Trilogy
Pass Over
Plaza Suite
Skeleton Crew

Scenic Design (Musical)

Caroline, or Change
Flying Over Sunset
Funny Girl
Girl from the North Country
The Little Prince

Costume Design (Play)

Chicken & Biscuits
The Lehman Trilogy
Macbeth
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind

Costume Design (Musical)

Caroline, or Change
Funny Girl
Girl from the North Country
Mrs Doubtfire
The Music Man

Lighting Design (Play)

The Lehman Trilogy
Macbeth
Pass Over
Skeleton Crew
The Skin of Our Teeth

Lighting Design (Musical)

Caroline, or Change
Flying Over Sunset
Girl from the North Country
The Little Prince
The Music Man

Sound Design (Play)

Dana H
for colored girls...
Is This a Room
The Lehman Trilogy
Thoughts of a Colored Man

Sound Design (Musical)

Caroline, or Change
Flying Over Sunset
Girl from the North Country
The Little Prince
The Music Man

Orchestrations

Caroline, or Change
Company
Flying Over Sunset
Mr Saturday Night
The Music Man

[NativeNYer2]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 8:43pm

One show I think will play into the awards is The Minutes, which is absent from your predictions altogether. I imagine at least Annaleigh Ashford might get a nomination. EDIT: Annaleigh Ashford is NOT in The Minutes. That was a mistake on my part. Don’t know where I came up with that.
 

I am curious about your placement of Uzo Aduba in Supporting Actress. Is that where she would fall?  I assumed she would be in Leading Actress. If she were to be in Supporting, I imagine she would be a pretty safe bet for the win. For that matter, do you really think Clyde’s will miss on a Best Play nomination?

and also… do you not feel Simon Russell Beale will get in for Lehman Trilogy?

Updated On: 12/28/21 at 08:43 PM

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 8:48pm

I wonder if TROUBLE IN MIND will be considered a revival? It has never been on Broadway and never had a high-profile production.

Leaving Samantha Williams off the featured Actress list is a big mistake, she is giving a memorable performance. I don't see Jenn making it on the list. But a lot can happen in the Spring.

 

[akhoya87]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 9:02pm

CurtainPullDowner said: "I wonder if TROUBLE IN MIND will be considered a revival? It has never been on Broadway and never had a high-profile production.

Leaving Samantha Williams off the featured Actress list is a big mistake, she is giving a memorable performance. I don't see Jenn making it on the list. But a lot can happen in the Spring.

"

Re: Trouble in Mind, I believe the eligibility committee has already ruled it as a revival:

https://www.playbill.com/article/tony-awards-committee-makes-eligibility-rulings-on-six-diana-more

Updated On: 12/28/21 at 09:02 PM

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 9:05pm

Chances are The Little Prince will not be considered a musical by the Tony committee. NYT labels it as a “special theatrical event.”

[kurtal]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 9:20pm

NativeNYer2 said: "One show I think will play into the awards is The Minutes, which is absent from your predictions altogether. I imagine at least Annaleigh Ashford might get a nomination.


I am curious about your placement of Uzo Aduba in Supporting Actress. Is that where she would fall? I assumed she would be in Leading Actress. If she were to be in Supporting, I imagine she would be a pretty safe bet for the win. For that matter, do you really think Clyde’s will miss on a Best Play nomination?

and also… do you not feel Simon Russell Beale will get in for Lehman Trilogy?"

 

Yeah, it's hard to bet against Tracy Letts.  I saw The Minutes pre-pandemic and wasn't into it at all...but I could definitely see it making some waves.

Re: Clyde's...

I went by the "Above the Title" rules...and even though Uzo is (arguably) the biggest name, she's totally a supporting character in the play.  It's really an ensemble piece.  That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tony Committee bump her up to Lead.  And I could totally see it break through into the Best Play slate.  I think Lehman and Skeleton Crew are locks.  And I think Dana H is close to a lock.  But I could totally see a couple of other shows grab the last few slots (Clyde's and The Minutes being the most likely, I think).

 

[kurtal]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 9:23pm

Oh, and yes, I could totally see Beale get a Lehman nod, although I'd personally prefer Adam Godley snag it. I could also see Ian Barford grabbing a spot -- or Norm Lewis based on name recognition (although that performance might be supporting...not sure).

[kurtal]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 9:26pm

Leaving Samantha Williams off the featured Actress list is a big mistake, she is giving a memorable performance. I don't see Jenn making it on the list. But a lot can happen in the Spring.

Yeah, I totally considered Samantha Williams.  And I'm not sold on Jenn getting the nomination either.  I also could see Whitney Bashor or Jayne Houdyshell getting on the ballot.  And I know literally nothing about Paradise Square, so maybe there's a nom there that will emerge.

 

[kurtal]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 9:29pm

Jordan Levinson said: "Chances areThe Little Prince will not be considered a musical by the Tony committee. NYT labels it as a “special theatrical event.”"

I can definitely see that happening.  Based on what I've read, it seems as musical-like as Paramour was at least...but I could totally see it not fitting the category.  

 

[TaffyDavenport]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 9:37pm

From what I've seen and heard, Joaquina Kalukango's performance in Paradise Square should be getting Best Actress attention.

[Alexander Lamar]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 9:45pm

I think Chuck Cooper would get nominated before Michael Zegen, and I hope Tamika Lawrence is nominated for Caroline or Change as well.  

[KJisgroovy]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 9:56pm

If Paradise Square is able to open and isn't laughed out of town, there's simply no way Joaquina Kalukango won't be nominated. 

[smidge2]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 10:27pm

NativeNYer2 said: "One show I think will play into the awards is The Minutes, which is absent from your predictions altogether. I imagine at least Annaleigh Ashford might get a nomination.


I am curious about your placement of Uzo Aduba in Supporting Actress. Is that where she would fall? I assumed she would be in Leading Actress. If she were to be in Supporting, I imagine she would be a pretty safe bet for the win. For that matter, do you really think Clyde’s will miss on a Best Play nomination?

and also… do you not feel Simon Russell Beale will get in for Lehman Trilogy?"

When did Annaleigh Ashford join The Minutes?

[NativeNYer2]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 10:42pm

Omg you’re absolutely right. I don’t know why I thought Annaleigh Ashford was in The Minutes. But nonetheless, Sally Murphy and Blair Brown are in it, and they certainly have the pedigree to get a Tony nomination in this category to represent the play.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 10:42pm

I tend to shy away from making full-on predictions at this stage, so the following is a bit of a hybrid between personal preferences, and filling in the gaps with predictions. 

(Parentheses) = I haven't seen it yet, but I'm slotting it in as a potential prediction. 

PLAY
Clyde's
Is This a Room
The Minutes
Pass Over
Skeleton Crew

NOTE: I assume Lehman will get nominated, but I didn't like it so I didn't include it above. And then, we'll have to see about Birthday Candles. 

MUSICAL
Flying Over Sunset 
Girl From the North Country
Six
A Strange Loop
(Paradise Square) 

PLAY REVIVAL
Trouble in Mind
Lackawanna Blues
(American Buffalo)
(For Colored Girls)
(How I Learned to Drive)

NOTE: There are a lot of unknowns in this category. 7 out of the 9 eligible productions have not yet premiered. (I'm counting For Colored Girls as a new production for now, since it's a new director) 

LEAD/ACTOR/MUSICAL
(Hugh Jackman - Music Man)
(Rob McClure - Mrs. Doubtfire)
(Myles Frost - MJ) 
(Jaquel Spivey - A Strange Loop)

NOTE: Right now, I only count 8 eligible male leads, which means there will only be 4 nominees in this category. I previously had Harry Hadden-Paton listed here as a 5th, but I deleted his name because I think he's the most likely to get dropped out of those 5. 

LEAD/ACTRESS/MUSICAL
Sharon D. Clarke - Caroline
Katrina Lenk - Company
Carmen Cusack - Flying Over Sunset
Mare Winningham - Girl From the North Country 
(Jaoquina Kulakango - Paradise Square) 

NOTE: Wow, this is a strong category already. Are there any Lead Actresses in Mrs. Doubtfire or MJ? Or alternately, are there 2 leads in Paradise Square? If so, then we'll have 5 nominees. Currently, I count only 8 eligible performers: the 5 above, plus Feldstein, De Waal, and Foster. 

LEAD/ACTOR/PLAY
Ruben Santiago-Hudson - Lackawanna 
Simon Russell Beale - Lehman
(Daniel Craig - Macbeth)
(David Morse - How I learned to Drive)
(Jesse Williams - Take Me Out)

NOTE: For “Take me Out” - Jesse Williams’ role was supporting at the Tonys in 2003, but went Lead at the Off-Broadway awards. I don’t personally know the play. This is also a strong category, and it could go a lot of different ways. 

LEAD/ACTRESS/PLAY
LaChanze - Trouble in Mind
Uzo Aduba - Clyde's 
Dierdre O'Connell - Dana H
Emily Davis - Is This a Room 
(Mary-Louise Parker - How I Learned to Drive)

FEATURED/ACTOR/PLAY
Austin Pendleton - The Minutes
Ron Cephas Jones - Clydes 
Chuck Cooper - Trouble in Mind 
Gabriel Ebert - Pass Over 
(Darren Criss - American Buffalo)

FEATURED/ACTRESS/PLAY
Kara Young - Clyde's
Jessica Frances Duke - Trouble in Mind 
Jessie Mueller - The Minutes
??

NOTE: A surprisingly sparse category so far. But that might change when we see "For Colored Girls." In any case, I would be perfectly happy if Kara Young or Jessica Frances Duke won a Tony Award for these roles.

FEATURED MUSICAL (ACTOR/ACTRESS)
I'm not even going to bother right now, because there's a lot I haven't seen, or didn't care for. But I'l just say that I'd love for Samantha WIlliams and Tamika Lawrence to be nominated. 

SCORE
Six
Flying Over Sunset
A Strange Loop
The Lehman Trilogy 
Thoughts of a Colored Man

NOTE: There are lots of eligible plays for which I don't remember the score at all, or haven't heard it yet. And I haven't heard any music from Doubtfire or Paradise Square 

BOOK
Flying Over Sunset
Six
Girl From the North Country 
A Strange Loop 
??
NOTE: A weak category, just like every year. *Sigh* 

Updated On: 12/29/21 at 10:42 PM

[@z5]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 10:47pm

Wait you all don’t actually think Pass Over would be nominated…? I thought it was the biggest piece of trash ever put on stage. Terrible written, and dialogue was nothing more than what a 6th grader can write. 

[kurtal]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 10:59pm

NOTE: Can someone please inform me if there's a lead actor in Paradise Square? If not, that means there are currently only 8 eligible actors, in which case there will only be 4 nominees in this category.

i think it's two leading actresses and no male lead.  However, Ramin Karimloo could be in this category for Funny Girl depending on billing, which would bring it to nine.

NOTE: Wow, this is a strong category already. Are there any Lead Actresses in Mrs. Doubtfire or MJ? Or alternately, are there 2 leads in Paradise Square? If so, then we'll have 5 nominees. Currently, I count only 8 eligible performers: the 5 above, plus Feldstein, De Waal, and Foster.

I'm not sure if Jenn Gambatese is going to end up in lead or featured for Doubtfire.  And all six of the Six queens are competing in lead, per the most recent Tony rulings.  This category is stacked AF.

NOTE: A surprisingly sparse category so far. But that might change when we see "For Colored Girls." In any case, I would be perfectly happy if Kara Young or Jessica Frances Duke won a Tony Award for these roles.

Agreed all around!  Kara Young gave one of my favorite performances of the season so far.

 

 

[kurtal]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 11:01pm

@z5 said: "Wait you all don’t actually think Pass Over would be nominated…? I thought it was the biggest piece of trash ever put on stage. Terrible written, and dialogue was nothing more than what a 6th grader can write."

I'm not convinced that it *will* be nominated, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is.  And I liked it a lot.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 11:22pm

kurtal said: "i think it's two leading actresses and no male lead. However, Ramin Karimloo could be in this category for Funny Girl depending on billing, which would bring it to nine.

NOTE: Wow, this is a strong category already. Are there any Lead Actresses in Mrs. Doubtfire or MJ? Or alternately, are there 2 leads in Paradise Square? If so, then we'll have 5 nominees. Currently, I count only 8 eligible performers: the 5 above, plus Feldstein, De Waal, and Foster.

I'm not sure if Jenn Gambatese is going to end up in lead or featured for Doubtfire. And all six of the Six queens are competing in lead, per the most recent Tony rulings. This category is stacked AF."

 

Thanks for that! I've been keeping a running list of eligibility for my own reference, but I forgot to include Ramin, and I forgot to move the Six Queens over to Leading after the recent announcement. I still think it's very strange that they chose to put them all in lead, but we already thoroughly discussed that in the other thread. 

 

[BCfitasafiddle]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 11:27pm

Jeez, what a year for the leading categories. Especially actresses in musicals and plays. Embarrassment of riches.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 11:34pm

Caroline, or Change isn’t eligible for Orchestrations.

[kurtal]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 11:48pm

HeyMrMusic said: "Caroline, or Change isn’t eligible for Orchestrations."

Ah thanks.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 12/28/21 at 11:50pm

NativeNYer2 said: "I don’t know why I thought Annaleigh Ashford was in The Minutes."

I guess you were thinking of Jessie Mueller? 

 

[NativeNYer2]

Posted: 12/29/21 at 12:10am

The OP indicates that Uzo Aduba would be a Supporting Actress unless the committee rules otherwise. Also, I think it is highly unlikely that Ruth Negga will miss a nomination in Leading Actress. She may even get an Academy Award nomination this year. My feeling is that she will end up being a favorite to win, but unless Macbeth is a total bomb, she will get nominated. She is more of a safe bet this year for Macbeth than Glenda Jackson was for Sam Gold’s production of King Lear.

[quizking101]

Posted: 12/29/21 at 12:35am

I’m still pissed that they ruled Ebony-Marshall Oliver as Leading Actress for “Chicken & Biscuits” because that could’ve been an EASY nomination in supporting. I could also see Michael Urie possibly sneaking into Featured Actor - but certainly not Alana Raquel Bowers.

I feel like people are underestimating what the turnout might be for “Girl From The North Country”. I could very likely see Winningham enter the Leading Actress race, but there are also a number of performances that could reasonably be considered for Featured - Kimber Elayne Sprawl, Austin Scott, and Jeanette Bayardelle come to mind. 

As for DOUBTFIRE, Jenn Gambatese isn’t getting a nomination, nor would anyone else in the show for that matter other than McClure. All the characters in that show are basically foils for him to play off of. 

If I had to give any of the girls from SIX a nod, it would be Adrianna Hicks or Brittany Mack, but even then, I don’t think there is truly enough material for any of them to merit a Tony nomination.