Too Early Tony Nom Predictions- Page 4

[kurtal]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 4:28pm

A Strange Loop is bringing its Pulitzer into the awards season.  Of course, that's not a guarantee of Tony success (see Next to Normal & Sunday in the Park with George), but I can't imagine it will hurt.

[broadwayindie]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 12:01am

With Music Man opening do people still think that Hugh and Sutton are likely to win Tonys? My money is on Jaquel Spivey and Joaquina Kulakango.

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 12:03am

My money is on Jaquel Spivey and Sharon D. Clarke; however, Kalukango will get nominated as well. 

Updated On: 2/18/22 at 12:03 AM

[VotePeron]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 12:12am

broadwayindie said: "With Music Man opening do people still think that Hugh and Sutton are likely to win Tonys? My money is on Jaquel Spivey and Joaquina Kulakango."


No, I do not think either are going to win or be the top 2 contenders in their categories.

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 12:53am

VotePeron said: "broadwayindie said: "With Music Man opening do people still think that Hugh and Sutton are likely to win Tonys? My money is on Jaquel Spivey and Joaquina Kalukango."


No, I do not think either are going to win or be the top 2 contenders in their categories."

With Kalukango and Clarke in the running, I don't think Sutton was ever going to win for this role. I thought Hugh might, but the reviews have not been so kind to his performance. I'm thinking it'll be Spivey or maybe Frost.  

 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 12:56am

VotePeron said: "broadwayindie said: "With Music Man opening do people still think that Hugh and Sutton are likely to win Tonys? My money is on Jaquel Spivey and Joaquina Kalukango."


No, I do not think either are going to win or be the top 2 contenders in their categories."

With Kalukango and Clarke in the running, I didn't think Sutton was ever going to win for this role. I thought Hugh might, but the reviews have not been so kind to his performance. I'm thinking it'll be Spivey or maybe Frost.  

 

[quizking101]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 6:34am

Actor looks like it’s going to be between Spivey, Frost, McClure, Jackman, and Crystal, with Karimloo for “Funny Girl” and Jay O. Sanders for “North Country” as potential spoilers.

Having seen Frost, Jackman, Sanders, and McClure - I have to give it to Frost by a hair over McClure. Sanders may ride on collective love for NC. Jackman is definitely out of this race.  I also have no desire to see Crystal unless those prices DROP. Seeing Spivey and Karimloo later this spring.

Actress seems like it will be Feldstein, Foster, Kalukango, Winningham, and Clarke. The only potential spoiler is Katrina Lenk for “Company” (since she was rather polarizing). No chance it’s going to be one of the girls from SIX, since none of them would have enough individual support to pose a real threat.

Having seen Foster, Lenk, Winningham, and Clarke - to me, it’s Clarke’s to lose, but Winningham is my sentimental favorite. (I see Feldstein and Kalukango later in Spring)

Updated On: 2/18/22 at 06:34 AM

[JBroadway]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 9:43am

I don't see Karimloo being a serious player in this race, unless he gives the best acting performance of his career, which...we'll see.

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 10:55am

JBroadway said: "I don't see Karimloo being a serious player in this race, unless he gives the best acting performance of his career, which...we'll see."

I love Ramin Karimloo, but I think he's honestly kinda like the Six Queens. Like he can be great, but there's just not going to be enough there to merit a best actor win. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 11:10am

It's going to be interesting to see how Caroline, or Change is remembered.  It's no secret that for whatever reason Tony voters have an extreme recency bias when it comes to musicals (no closed show has ever won Best Musical or Best Revival).  And Caroline will have been closed 5 months when the Tonys happen, whereas 3 other big musical revivals will all presumably still be running (and all will have opened after Caroline).  So even though Clarke got raves, if Feldstein or Kalukango get above-average notices, I wouldn't at all be shocked for them to take it.  This kind of reminds me of the Follies and Porgy and Bess year (where Follies closed in January, ultimately leading to Porgy and Bess winning revival and Steve Kazee riding the Once train to top Danny Burstein).

[kurtal]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 12:49pm

broadwayindie said: "With Music Man opening do people still think that Hugh and Sutton are likely to win Tonys? My money is on Jaquel Spivey and Joaquina Kulakango."

I never got the sense that people thought that Hugh or Sutton were shoo-ins to win.  I definitely think they'll both get nominations, but I think they both have big uphill climbs to win.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 1:26pm

Considering Scott Rudin is no longer here(or is he?) to campaign for The Music Man I would not venture Hugh Jackman or Sutton Foster will win. I think had Rudin still been around I’d give it to Jackman, but not anymore.

Updated On: 2/18/22 at 01:26 PM

[Wallman2]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 1:59pm

"when it comes to musicals (no closed show has ever won Best Musical or Best Revival)".    I think that statement is incorrect.  Didn't "Hallelujah Baby!" win the Tony for Best Musical way back when and it had been closed for several weeks when the Awards were given out?

[BroadwayNYC2]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 2:11pm

The Big River revival had also been closed for nearly a year when it won. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 2/18/22 at 2:43pm

Wallman2 said: ""when it comes to musicals (no closed show has ever won Best Musical or Best Revival)". I think that statement is incorrect. Didn't "Hallelujah Baby!" win the Tony for Best Musical way back when and it had been closed for several weeks when the Awards were given out?"

Ah, sorry, you are correct--I always forget that opened before the 1967 Tonys but just missed the cutoff and actually didn't win until 1968 (when it was closed). But we'll say in the last 50 years that hasn't happened (including never since the early 90s when revivals were split into plays and musicals).

BroadwayNYC2, the Big River revival was nominated but didn't win (lost to Assassins). Caroline will almost assuredly be nominated, but will be interesting to see how voters stack it up against the 3 ones that will still be running.

Updated On: 2/18/22 at 02:43 PM

[kurtal]

Posted: 3/25/22 at 6:37pm

Updated predictions because why not?

Musical

Girl from the North Country
Mr. Saturday Night
Paradise Square
Six
A Strange Loop

Play

Hangment
The Lehman Trilogy
The Minutes
Skeleton Crew
Thoughts of a Colored Man

Musical Revival

Caroline, or Change
Company
The Music Man
(But I could see them nominating all four)

Play Revival

American Buffalo
for colored girls...
The Skin of Our Teeth
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind

Leading Actor Musical

Billy Crystal (Mr. Saturday Night)
Myles Frost (MJ)
Hugh Jackman (The Music Man)
Rob McClure (Mrs. Doubtfire)
Jaquel Spivey (A Strange Loop)

Leading Actress Musical

Sharon D. Clarke (Caroline, or Change)
Carmen Cusack (Flying over Sunset)
Sutton Foster (The Music Man)
Joaquina Kalukango (Paradise Square)
Katrina Lenk (Company)

Leading Actor Play

Simon Russell Beale (The Lehman Trilogy)
Daniel Craig (Macbeth)
Laurence Fishburne (American Buffalo)
David Morse (How I Learned to Drive)
David Threlfall (Hangmen)

Leading Actress Play

Gabby Beans (The Skin of our Teeth)
LaChanze (Trouble in Mind)
Ruth Negga (Macbeth)
Deirdre O'Connell (Dana H)
Mary-Louise Parker (How I Learned to Drive)

Supporting Actor Musical

Matt Doyle (Company)
Jefferson Mays (The Music Man)
John-Andrew Morrison (A Strange Loop)
Robert Sella (Flying Over Sunset)
AJ Shively (Paradise Square)

Supporting Actress Musical

Jayne Houdyshell (The Music Man)
Chilean Kennedy (Paradise Square)
Patti LuPone (Company)
Jane Lynch (Funny Girl)
Samantha Williams (Caroline, or Change)

Supporting Actor Play

Alfie Allen (Hangmen)
Chuck Cooper (Trouble in Mind)
Darren Criss (American Buffalo)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Take Me Out)
Michael Oberholtzer (Take Me Out)

Supporting Actress Play

Uzo Aduba (Clyde's)
Jessica Frances Dukes (Trouble in Mind)
Amber Gray (Macbeth)
Kenita R. Miller (for colored girls...)
Phylicia Rashad (Skeleton Crew)

Director Musical

Caroline, or Change
Company
Mr. Saturday Night
Paradise Square
A Strange Loop

Director Play

for colored girls...
Hangmen
The Lehman Trilogy
The Minutes
Take Me Out

Score

Flying Over Sunset
Mr. Saturday Night
Paradise Square
Six
A Strange Loop

Musical Book

Girl from the North Country
Mr. Saturday Night
Paradise Square
Six
A Strange Loop

Choreography

for colored girls...
MJ
The Music Man
Paradise Square
Six

Scenic Design Musical

Caroline, or Change
Company
Funny Girl
The Music Man
Paradise Square

Scenic Design Play

American Buffalo
The Lehman Trilogy
Macbeth
Plaza Suite
Skeleton Crew

Costume Design Musical

Diana
Funny Girl
Mrs Doubtfire
The Music Man
Paradise Square

Costume Design Play

Chicken & Biscuits
The Lehman Trilogy
Macbeth
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind

Lighting Design Musical

Caroline, or Change
Company
Girl from the North Country
Flying Over Sunset
Paradise Square

Lighting Design Play

American Buffalo
Dana H
for colored girls...
The Lehman Trilogy
The Skin of Our Teeth

Sound Design Musical

Caroline, or Change
Company
Funny Girl
Six
A Strange Loop

Sound Design Play

Dana H
for colored girls...
Is This a Room?
The Lehman Trilogy
Skeleton Crew

Orchestrations

Caroline, or Change
Company
Paradise Square
Six
A Strange Loop


Seen: Caroline or Change, Chicken & Biscuits, Clyde's, Company, Dana H., Diana, Flying Over Sunset, Girl from the North Company, Is This a Room?, Lackawanna Blues, The Lehman Trilogy, MJ, Mrs Doubtfire, The Music Man, Paradise Square, Pass Over, Six, Skeleton Crew, Take Me Out, Thoughts of a Colored Man, Trouble in Mind

Seen related production: for colored girls... (Public), The Minutes (pre-pandemic preview), A Strange Loop (off-Broadway)

Haven't seen yet: American Buffalo, Birthday Candles, Funny Girl, Hangmen, How I Learned to Drive, The Little Prince, Macbeth, Mr. Saturday Night, Plaza Suite, Potus, The Skin of Our Teeth

 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/25/22 at 7:59pm

Good predictions, some points:

- Lehman is bound the be most nominated play, and I agree if the reviews from the Public were any indication that For Colored Girls could be the second most nominated one.

- Macbeth with 5 key noms, but not Revival of a Play?

- Take Me Out with 5 noms, including 3 actors? This board doesn't seem to make this something right.

- Paradise Square being the most nominated musical with 12 noms doesn't feel right to me. I think it's between ''The Music Man'' and ''Company''.

- The race for Best Musical is really a toss-up, I think ''A Strange Loop'', ''Six'', and to a certain degree ''Girl from North Country'' are safe bets. ''Paradise'' is definitely likely, but ''Mr. Saturday Night''? Over ''Flying'' and even ''MJ'? Well, let's see how the previews go.

[kurtal]

Posted: 3/25/22 at 11:54pm

I'm a big fan of uninformed speculation.  And your critiques are totally solid.

That said, I don't think The Music Man is going to get nearly as many noms as others might.  I agree that Company could be the real nomination queen.

I keep going back and forth on Best Musical.  I feel like A Strange Loop and Six are the only two safe bets.  I think Paradise deserves it, but I'll be interesting to see if Drabinsky's legacy keeps it out of the top spot.  I could *definitely* see MJ sneaking in.  I think Flying doesn't have a shot at the big one.  Jason Robert Brown is due for a hit.  Will this be the one?  I ****ing hated Girl from the North Country, but I agree that it's got a good shot at a nod.  And I think Paradise Square could really get a whole bunch of production nominations (and even some performance ones beyond just Joaquina).  What is the current record for most nominees for a new musical without it being nominated for Best Musical?  Because I could totally see Paradise Square pulling something like that.

On the play side of things, I'm really intrigued by The Skin of Our Teeth.  Given how revered the text is -- and how well Lincoln Center productions tend to do in the Play categories -- I could see this being a late contender for a lot of awards.  And I definitely may be bullish on Take Me Out.  I didn't actually love the production, but I do think it had a number of excellent performances in it.  And I'm a little gun-shy on Macbeth as an overall production given the absolute mess Sam Gold made of King Lear.  

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/26/22 at 12:03am

Im also very intrigued by “Skin”, I have a last slot for my trip that I will fill with a play, I will wait what previews says About “Colored” and “Skin” and the reviews of “Take Me Out” to decide what I will Watch.

[kurtal]

Posted: 1/17/25 at 9:28am

**deleted message**

Updated On: 1/17/25 at 09:28 AM