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#26

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 12:35am

I’m still pissed that they ruled Ebony-Marshall Oliver as Leading Actress for “Chicken & Biscuits” because that could’ve been an EASY nomination in supporting. I could also see Michael Urie possibly sneaking into Featured Actor - but certainly not Alana Raquel Bowers.

I feel like people are underestimating what the turnout might be for “Girl From The North Country”. I could very likely see Winningham enter the Leading Actress race, but there are also a number of performances that could reasonably be considered for Featured - Kimber Elayne Sprawl, Austin Scott, and Jeanette Bayardelle come to mind.

As for DOUBTFIRE, Jenn Gambatese isn’t getting a nomination, nor would anyone else in the show for that matter other than McClure. All the characters in that show are basically foils for him to play off of.

If I had to give any of the girls from SIX a nod, it would be Adrianna Hicks or Brittany Mack, but even then, I don’t think there is truly enough material for any of them to merit a Tony nomination.

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#27

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 12:46am

Regarding Aduba:

I think we'll have to wait and see. 2nd Stage has a general practice of putting all of their actors below the title, regardless of the role, or the actors' star power. And as a general rule, there's really no point in assuming an actor's category placement based on their billing. The billing is based on marketability, not necessarily the size of the role, and we see the Tony committee rule against the default billing tons of times every year. So, as for the size of the role: they could very well petition her for lead. But I agree her role is a grey area.

Sometimes, in situations like this, a role gets ruled as a "lead" if they're a central figure within the story of the play, even if they don't have more stage time - especially if there's star power involved. So she could be ruled as a lead on the grounds that (a) she's the title character, (b) Aduba has the star power, (c) she begins and ends the play, (d) even when she's offstage, her character looms over the story.

As for Ruth Negga:

Lady Macbeth is a tricky role when it comes to awards. The role is too juicy and too important to be deemed Supporting, yet she doesn't get as much stage-time as Macbeth, or many other Shakespeare leads. And for that matter, the role isn't as large as the other leads in contention for the Tony this year.

Note that the role of Lady Macbeth has never won a Tony award, and it hasn't always earned a nomination either. And even Frances McDormand (an awards darling) isn't in getting any awards buzz for her performance as Lady Macbeth in Joel Coen's film. It's not that these actors aren't giving great performances, it's just hard to win a leading award for a role that borders on supporting.

I like Ruth Negga, and I'm certainly not rooting AGAINST her. I hope she's fantastic. And if she's fantastic, I hope she's taken seriously as an awards contender. But I have my doubts, partly for the reasons I mentioned above, but also because I thought her Hamlet was good-not-great.

#28

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 10:02am

I won’t make a long list, just share who I think will win top honors in the musical category.

Best Musical - SIX

Best Revival of a Musical - COMPANY

Best Original Score - SIX (Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss)

Best Book of a Musical - SIX (Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical - SIX (Tim Deiling)

Best Sound Design of a Musical - SIX (Paul Gatehouse)

Best Orchestrations - SIX (Tom Curran)

Best Costume Design of a Musical - SIX (Gabriella Slade)

Best Choreography - Mrs. Doubtfire (Lorin Latarro)

Best Scenic Design of a Musical - COMPANY (Bunny Christie)

Best Director of a Musical - Marianne Elliott (COMPANY)

Best Actor in a Musical - Rob McClure (Mrs. Doubtfire)

Best Actress in a Musical - Sharon D. Clarke (Caroline, or Change)

Best Featured Actress in a Musical - Patti LuPone (COMPANY)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical - Matt Doyle (COMPANY)

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Updated On: 12/29/21 at 10:02 AM

#29

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 11:10am

A handful of changes from the OP im the musical categories. I don’t know much about this year’s plays. (my changes are in bold)

Featured Actress (Musical)

Jane Lynch (Funny Girl)
Analise Scarpaci (Mrs Doubtfire)
Jennifer Simard (Company)
Jane Houdyshell (The Music Man)
Patti LuPone (Company)

Costume Design (Musical)

Caroline, or Change
Funny Girl
Six
Mrs Doubtfire
The Music Man

Lighting Design (Musical)

Caroline, or Change
Flying Over Sunset
Girl from the North Country
Six
The Music Man

Sound Design (Musical)

Caroline, or Change
Six
Girl from the North Country
The Little Prince
The Music Man

"Grease," the fourth revival of the season, is the worst show in the history of theater and represents an unparalleled assault on Western civilization and its values. - Michael Reidel

#30

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 12:43pm

Dylan Smith4 said: "I won’t make a long list, just share who I think will win top honors in the musical category.

Best Musical - SIX

Best Revival of a Musical -COMPANY

Best Original Score -SIX(Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss)

Best Book of a Musical -SIX(Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical -SIX(Tim Deiling)

Best Sound Design of a Musical -SIX(Paul Gatehouse)

Best Orchestrations -SIX(Tom Curran)

Best Costume Design of a Musical -SIX(Gabriella Slade)

Best Choreography -Mrs. Doubtfire(Lorin Latarro)

Best Scenic Design of a Musical -COMPANY(Bunny Christie)

Best Director of a Musical -Marianne Elliott(COMPANY)

Best Actor in a Musical -Rob McClure(Mrs. Doubtfire)

Best Actress in a Musical -Sharon D. Clarke(Caroline, or Change)

Best Featured Actress in a Musical - Patti LuPone(COMPANY)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical - Matt Doyle(COMPANY)

"

Obviously you haven't seen "A Strange Loop". My feeling is, if it opens this year, it will win a majority of the awards for Musicals.

Updated On: 12/29/21 at 12:43 PM

#31

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 12:45pm

Anyone who thinks SIX is in contention for Book of a Musical is buggin’

There is virtually no book to speak of other than some sassy banter between songs. It would be an affront to musicals with actual structures. Hell, I’d put Flying Over Sunset (which I deeply disliked) in that category over Six.

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#32

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 12:49pm

There’s no way A Strange Loop will go home empty-handed.

#33

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 12:51pm

A Strange Loop and Company will dominate the musical awards. SIX will not win anything, but quite honestly, it’s not the kind of show that desperately needs Tony wins to stay open.

“I am furious, but I am sailing.”

#34

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 12:55pm

quizking101 said: "Anyone who thinks SIX is in contention for Book of a Musical is buggin’

There is virtually no book to speak of other than some sassy banter between songs. It would be an affront to musicals with actual structures."

The show actually has a pretty well-conceived book. The whole concept of taking wives of Henry VIII and pitting them against each other in a pop-concert, only for them to come together in their shared trauma. These are the decisions of a book writer. It's not just about the dialogue, it's about the storytelling. The structure is simple, yes, but it's clever, and it's elegant in its simplicity. Not to mention it's pretty original and inventive (sure, maybe it takes cues from Hamilton, Lizzie, etc. but I think it has its own spin)

EDIT: Obviously you're welcome to disagree, if you feel that this concept is not clever or elegant, or if it's too simple to be taken seriously. But I'd argue that it's a misconception to say that the show has no structure, no story, no unifying concept, etc - which are important components of its book.

That said, I would still personally give it to Flying Over Sunset (which I actually liked). And I would predict that it'll go to Strange Loop over both of them.

Updated On: 12/29/21 at 12:55 PM

#35

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 1:18pm

I know it hasn’t opened in New York yet, but I think Paradise Square’s Joaquina Kalukango and Nathaniel Stampley will be a major contenders for their respective categories. I’d even give Joaquina the win.

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#36

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 1:34pm

Jordan Levinson said: "A Strange Loop and Company will dominate the musical awards. SIX will not win anything, but quite honestly, it’s not the kind of show that desperately needs Tony wins to stay open."

I have a hard time seeing SIX breaking through on most of the design categories because of the perceived simplicity of the concert format. I think costumes could definitely be the exception, as the designer did such a great job with a unifying visual theme that still differentiated each of the queens. Maaaaaybe choreo or lighting if there's a big old SIX wave.

I think the revivals are going to dominate the design awards by and large.

#37

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 1:36pm

I think Six definitely wins for Best Costumes, probably for Best Orchestrations, and probably also for Best Score (although it might be a tossup between Six and A Strange Loop), but I think A Strange Loop will be the uncontested winner for Best Book. I know Patti is a lock for featured actress, but I really hope Caissie Levy at least gets a nomination for Caroline, or Change...her take on Rose's character is incredibly sympathetic and nuanced. It would obviously also be great for Tamika Lawrence and/or Samantha Williams to get a nomination. Also unlikely, but I think it would be amazing if the kids playing Noah, Jackie, and Joe in Caroline, or Change got recognized somehow - particularly for the little boys who alternate Noah, there is some incredible talent for a very tough role.

Updated On: 12/29/21 at 01:36 PM

#38

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 1:36pm

I feel like people are underestimating what the turnout might be for “Girl From The North Country”. I could very likely see Winningham enter the Leading Actress race, but there are also a number of performances that could reasonably be considered for Featured - Kimber Elayne Sprawl, Austin Scott, and Jeanette Bayardelle come to mind.

I think this will largely be determined by whether or not it's still running in the spring. If North Country has closed by then, I don't think we're going to see it get many noms at all. If it's still running, I think we could see it show up in a lot of the design categories (and maybe even some of the featured performance categories).

#39

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 1:41pm

forfivemoreminutes said: "I think Six definitely wins for Best Costumes,"

Given the Tonys' demonstrated preference for period pieces or BIG productions in costumes, I have a hard time buying that SIX takes this.

The last ten recipients:

Moulin Rouge!
The Cher Show
My Fair Lady
Hello, Dolly!
Hamilton
The King and I
GGLAM
R&H's Cinderella
Follies
Priscilla, Queen of the Desert

Six just doesn't feel on brand for the win here. I'd be less surprised to see Diana get a nomination for costumes, given that the clothes had a bigger (and arguably better) starring role in Act Two than even Jeanna de Waal.

#40

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 9:21pm

Will The Little Prince be eligible in the musical category?

Also… not that it’s on topic for this thread… but would The Little Prince be eligible in the Best Unique Theatrical Experience category for the Drama Desks?

#41

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 9:45pm

^We don’t know yet. It’s unclear. Seems like a grey area, and we have to wait and see the show. But like I said in the other thread: if anyone reading this has seen the production, we’d love to hear how much music there is, and whether it’s used in the narrative enough to seem like a musical.

in another thread, I cited Cirque’s Paramour as another “special event” spectacle show that qualified as a musical for the Tonys. So it’s possible.

#42

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 9:45pm

I disagree that Six should win for best costume. They each have one outfit for the whole show and I honestly didn’t find them that exciting or spectacular.

#43

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/29/21 at 10:59pm

Do we know who's doing costume design for the Funny Girl revival yet? Seems like that could be a huge opportunity for a Tony contender.

#44

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/30/21 at 5:38pm

Yeah as much as I like Six, the only awards it will get nominated for are musical, director, score, orchestrations, and costume design, and it will probably win none of those.

#45

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/30/21 at 7:58pm

The Distinctive Baritone said: "Yeah as much as I likeSix,the only awards it will get nominated for are musical, director, score, orchestrations, and costume design, and it will probably win none of those."

And I'm not even sure about Director.

#46

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 12/30/21 at 10:33pm

Best Musical - SIX

Best Revival of a Musical - COMPANY

Best Original Score - SIX (Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss)

Best Book of a Musical - SIX (Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical - SIX (Tim Deiling)

Best Sound Design of a Musical - SIX (Paul Gatehouse)

Best Orchestrations - SIX (Tom Curran)

Best Costume Design of a Musical - SIX (Gabriella Slade)

Wow, that's pretty optimistic to predict 7 Tonys for ''Six.''

Even in London, ''Six'' got 5 Olivier Award nominations, and wound up with 0 wins!

#47

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 1/1/22 at 12:04am

Really don’t understand all the love for Six. I saw it twice. Once at Cambridge A.R.T. and a second time on a Norwegian cruise ship. At 80 minutes, it’s perfect for a cruise ship, but on Broadway it’s really only a one act musical with no set or costume change. I’ve seen Girls From The North Country, Mrs. Doubtfire, and Mr. Saturday Night (at Barrington Stage) and in my opinion all those were better than Six. I can see Six getting nominated for Best Musical due to its popularity. I just don’t see it winning anything.

#48

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 1/1/22 at 1:40pm

Rooting for both Patti LuPone & Claybourne Elder for Company.

Updated On: 1/1/22 at 01:40 PM

#49

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 1/1/22 at 5:51pm

No offense to Elder, but is that really a TONY winning role?

Also I think the BEST musical will open in the spring.

#50

Too Early Tony Nom Predictions

Posted: 1/1/22 at 6:06pm

I think Elder could very well be nominated like Richard Fleeshman In London.

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