Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread- Page 16

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 1:09pm

woeisme3 said: "The Prom is basically a lock for a nomination, lol. It got very good reviews compared to The Cher Show which were mostly negative and BMC which were decidedly mixed off broadway.

I do think THE PROM's chances at a nomination go down if it closes before Tony time. And those grosses are bad. Right now, critical reception for BEETLEJUICE and AIN'T TOO PROUD (and to a lesser extent TOOTSIE) are the biggest unknowns for Musicals. But, if all continues according to plan, THE PROM should wake up to nominations for Musical, Score, Book, Lead Actress (Beth), possibly Lead Actor (Brooks), and maybe a few craft categories.


With Kiss Me, Kate’s consensus being “good but not great”, I think Oklahoma has a great chance of revival of a musical. It seems like the kind of production that critics will adore even if it’s divisive for audiences."

OKLAHOMA! winning Musical Revival is the surest lock in any category this year. It already has raves from the New York critics, who will re-review its Broadway transfer. Including the very unique joint-review in the NYT from both Brantley and Green.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 1:24pm

Best Revival of a Play fascinates me because the category has no clear frontrunner. I always had LEAR penciled in for Best Revival because of the pedigree of Jackson + Gold + Rudin, but early reports all say it's a mess. The only two revivals we haven't seen yet are All My Sons and Burn This. This season has had some good revivals but no truly great revivals.

Play Revivals this season: All My Sons, The Boys in the Band, Burn This, King Lear, Torch Song, True West, The Waverly Gallery 

[Scarlet Leigh]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 1:28pm

With them sort of less then enthusiastic reports so far of Ain't Too Proud, really think that solidifies that the Best Musical race is just between Hadestown and Tootsie. And it's going to be hard to pin down one over the other between them. It seems like it's going to be one of those years where it can really go either way. The two shows are so drastically different but both equally seem to be praised so far in each of their previous runs before coming to NYC. It's a matter of taste from the voters and weighting the pros of one with the pros of the other. 

It kind of reminds me of the Best Actress race between Patina Miller and Laura Osnes from a few years ago. Both well liked and praised performances but both for very different reasons. Everyone had their own opinion on which was the better one based mostly on personal preference. While everyone had their favorite, most also recognized that it would not be shocking to see it go to the other in the end. This feels like that all over again. The scale is going to tip based on if the voting committee for this year prefers a show that call backs well to classic musical comedies and brings it up to date or prefers an innovative piece that uses uses creative concepts to bring a classic tale and characters to the stage in an unexpected way with an unexpected sound.

[Kad]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 1:36pm

OKBroadwayFan said: "For those of you predicting Revival of a Musical. From the 2018 Rules:

Each year the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall determine whether there shall exist in quality and quantity a sufficient number of Revivals to merit the granting of an Award for Best Revival of a Play or Musical and, if so, the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall also determine whether there shall be a separate Play and Musical Revival category; provided, however, that if there are at least three such plays and three such musicals, there shall automatically be separate Play and Musical Revival categories.

Will there be a separate category for Musical Revival? Only two this year: Kiss Me Kate and Oklahoma!"

 I highly doubt the committee would rule in such a way as to prevent Kiss Me Kate or Oklahoma from receiving recognition, as they are both sure to meet the "quality" criteria, though the last time there were fewer than 3 nominees in Best Musical was 2002 (coincidentally enough,  a production of Oklahoma was one of the nominees that year).

 

 

[woeisme3]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 2:04pm

Yeah, there was also the Anything Goes/How To Succeed year and the countless years of only 3 nominees- there’ll be separate categories.

[OKBroadwayFan]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 2:10pm

Kad said: "OKBroadwayFan said: "For those of you predicting Revival of a Musical. From the 2018 Rules:

Each year the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall determine whether there shall exist in quality and quantity a sufficient number of Revivals to merit the granting of an Award for Best Revival of a Play or Musical and, if so, the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall also determine whether there shall be a separate Play and Musical Revival category; provided, however, that if there are at least three such plays and three such musicals, there shall automatically be separate Play and Musical Revival categories.

Will there be a separate category for Musical Revival? Only two this year: Kiss Me Kate and Oklahoma!"

I highly doubt the committee would rule in such a way as to prevent Kiss Me Kate or Oklahoma from receiving recognition, as they are both sure to meet the "quality" criteria, though the last time there were fewer than 3nominees in Best Musical was 2002 (coincidentally enough, a production of Oklahoma was one of the nominees that year).

 

Or will the category be "Best Revival Musical or Play"?
"

 

[bjh2114]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 2:25pm

Kad said: "though the last time there were fewer than 3nominees in Best Musical was 2002 (coincidentally enough, a production of Oklahoma was one of the nominees that year)."

2011 had only How to Succeed and Anything Goes and they kept the musical revival category.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 2:26pm

SomethingPeculiar said: "Best Revival of a Play fascinates me because the categoryhas no clear frontrunner. I always had LEAR penciled in for Best Revival because of the pedigree of Jackson + Gold + Rudin, but early reports all say it's a mess.The only two revivals we haven't seen yet areAll My SonsandBurn This.This season has had somegoodrevivals but no trulygreatrevivals.

Play Revivals this season:All My Sons,The Boys in the Band,Burn This,King Lear,Torch Song,True West,The Waverly Gallery"

I would think right now The Waverly Gallery is #1, with the other 2 yet to debut are the other contenders. It'd be great if Torch Song could get a win though. I'm not even sure Lear will get a nomination at this point 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 2:34pm

One other factor in the Best Musical race: the road!

People who run touring venues across the country make up 20-25% of the Tony voting body. We've seen them go for more challenging pieces (Fun Home over Beautiful/American in Paris, for example), and then other times they vote with their wallets for what will be the biggest hit on the road.

Hamilton has helped make the road really healthy, and there have also been 4 hot titles in 2 years (Evan Hansen, Come From Away, Frozen, Mean Girls), but last year's two winners (Band's Visit and Island) will have more moderate results.

Looking at this year, there's not a FROZEN-sized title yet, so because of that, I think the voters will want to anoint TOOTSIE as a hit and give it Best Musical. (Though depending on how things shake out, Tootsie, Mockingbird, Beetlejuice, Pretty Woman, Cher, Ain't Too Proud, Hades, and Be More Chill could do great or just ok on the road.)

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 2:47pm

While the "road" presenters used to make up about a quarter of the voters, those numbers have changed in the last decade and so has their influence over the Tonys (that is of course assuming the majority of them vote the same way). Road presenters are now roughly 10-12% of Tony voters.

I personally think road voters are more than willing to vote for something daring for Best Musical. They have jukebox shows that will make them easy money without that Tony, Tootsie could already prove to be an easy sell without the Tony stamp. But Hadestown? You probably need the "Best Musical" title in front of it to sell it on the road. So why wouldnt they vote for that so they get yet another show they can sell?

[Robbie2]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 3:21pm

Best Musical

Tootsie

Hadestown

The Prom

Ain't Too Proud or Beetlejuice

 

Best Play

The Ferryman

TKAM

Gary

What the Consitution Means to Me

Ink

 

Updated On: 3/12/19 at 03:21 PM

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 7:37pm

I think Torch Song! Elaine May for actress but not the show. My prediction!!

[bjh2114]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 11:48pm

Elaine May will likely be nominated, but I think she'll have a hard time beating Jackson, Metcalf, Nielsen, and Schreck since her show will be long closed.

[Robbie2]

Posted: 3/6/19 at 11:57pm

bjh2114 said: "Elaine May will likely be nominated, but I think she'll have a hard time beating Jackson, Metcalf, Nielsen, and Schreck since her show will be long closed."

 

And probably Annette Bening ~ All My Sons

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 7:36am

Don't forget Lauren Donnelly for The Ferryman. I can't imagine she won't be nominated. My preditctions are

Elaine May

Annette Benning

Glenda Jackson

Lauren Donnelly

Laurie Metcalf


also I'm pretty sure Neielsen is supproting for Gary, I could be wrong though.

[theaterlyfe19]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 7:56am

Rogerdellibovi said: "Anyone else just happy that there probably don’t be a sweep this year?Like I think hadestown will win best musical but not lead actor or actress, or best book."

I have to agree. I don't think one show will sweep this year. There are too many amazing performances that have been already getting raves, so I can't imagine a show like Hadestown pulling off a sweep across the board. 

[CT2NYC]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 8:01am

Mike Barrett said: "Don't forget Lauren Donnelly for The Ferryman. I can't imagine she won't be nominated. My preditctions are

Elaine May

Annette Benning

Glenda Jackson

Lauren Donnelly

Laurie Metcalf


also I'm pretty sure Neielsen is supproting for Gary, I could be wrong though."

It's Laura Donnelly, not Lauren.

[CT2NYC]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 8:11am

bjh2114 said: "Elaine May will likely be nominated, but I think she'll have a hard time beating Jackson, Metcalf, Nielsen, and Schreck since her show will be long closed."

I couldn't disagree more. In my opinion, Elaine May is one of the only locks to win, regardless of Waverly being closed. Not only did she deliver an absolutely stunning performance, but, as an 86-year-old legend returning to Broadway after over half a century, she will get the sentimental vote. I don't think anyone else can compete with that.

[rg7759]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 9:17am

I'm just gonna pick my 8 favorite. Jeff Daniels Janet mcteer Latoya Richardson Jackson and Zachary quinto.

Musicals. Amber grey Patrick page, Santiago and Rebecca Naomi Jones

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 9:20am

With all the other powerhouse performances in iconic roles, I fear Jeremy Pope may get left out of best actor. I really hope this isn't the cast though, as I think he 100% deserves it for Choir Boy. Daniels, Cranston, and Paddy Considine are the only locks right now I believe. Last 2 spots are up for grabs. 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 10:50am

Mike Barrett said: "With all the other powerhouse performances in iconic roles, I fear Jeremy Pope may get left out of best actor. I really hope this isn't the cast though, as I think he 100% deserves it for Choir Boy. Daniels, Cranston, and Paddy Considine are the only locks right now I believe. Last 2 spots are up for grabs."

Two spots up for grabs, but this category is INSANE:  Tracy Letts, Nathan Lane, Adam Driver, Michael Urie, Ethan Hawke, John Lithgow, Johnny Lee Miller, Daniel Radcliffe, Lucas Hedges, Jeremy Pope.

Honestly, even Considine could be vulnerable.

Updated On: 3/7/19 at 10:50 AM

[Megsamegatron]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 12:18pm

SomethingPeculiar said: "Mike Barrett said: "With all the other powerhouse performances in iconic roles, I fear Jeremy Pope may get left out of best actor. I really hope this isn't the cast though, as I think he 100% deserves it for Choir Boy. Daniels, Cranston, and Paddy Considine are the only locks right now I believe. Last 2 spots are up for grabs."

Two spots up for grabs, but this category is INSANE:Tracy Letts, Nathan Lane, Adam Driver, Michael Urie, Ethan Hawke,John Lithgow, Johnny Lee Miller, Daniel Radcliffe, Lucas Hedges, Jeremy Pope.

Honestly, even Considine could be vulnerable."

Which is why I think Jeremy Pope might get a nomination in Featured Musical for Ain't to Proud because they feel bad he is shut out of this category. 

[meredithchandler73]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 12:56pm

bwaylyric said: "I'm hoping that Caitlyn Kinnuen sneaks into that stacked Best Actress category. She is the heart of the show."

I wholeheartedly agree. I'm a big fan of THE PROM and I would love for Caitlin Kinnunen to get some attention.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 1:20pm

Megsamegatron said: "SomethingPeculiar said: "Mike Barrett said: "With all the other powerhouse performances in iconic roles, I fear Jeremy Pope may get left out of best actor. I really hope this isn't the cast though, as I think he 100% deserves it for Choir Boy. Daniels, Cranston, and Paddy Considine are the only locks right now I believe. Last 2 spots are up for grabs."

Two spots up for grabs, but this category is INSANE:Tracy Letts, Nathan Lane, Adam Driver, Michael Urie, Ethan Hawke,John Lithgow, Johnny Lee Miller, Daniel Radcliffe, Lucas Hedges, Jeremy Pope.

Honestly, even Considine could be vulnerable."

Which is why I think Jeremy Pope might get a nomination in Featured Musical for Ain't to Proud because they feel bad he is shut out of this category."

I haven't seen it so I can't verify, but it sounds like his role is a bit too small for a tony nom in that show. I think his chance is with choir boy but ya holy crap it is stacked. I mean I can see ANY of the people listed you mentioned nominated. Paddy might be vulnerable you're right, although I expect mass love for The Ferryman at least in terms of nominations. Should be a really fun category to watch. While I think Cranston deserves it, I don't think he is a 100% lock to win yet but a likely favorite for sure. 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/7/19 at 3:58pm

Mike Barrett said: "I haven't seen it so I can't verify, but it sounds like his role is a bit too small for a tony nom in that show. I think his chance is with choir boy but ya holy crap it is stacked. I mean I can see ANY of the people listed you mentioned nominated. Paddy might be vulnerable you're right, although I expect mass love for The Ferryman at least in terms of nominations. Should be a really fun category to watch. While I think Cranston deserves it, I don't think he is a 100% lock to win yet but a likely favorite for sure."


My theory:  Jeff Daniels is a 2x nominee (soon to be 3x), has worked steadily in theatre his whole life, and people love Mockingbird but it's not winning Best Play. So as a way of honoring Mockingbird, they'll give Daniels the Tony (and will probably be Mockingbird's only win). Daniels is a very good part of a very good play, whereas Bryan Cranston is the best part of Network, but he just won a few years ago for a similarly "big" performance.

I think you're right that the passion for Ferryman helps Paddy.
Pope will probably miss both categories...but he'll win a Theatre World Award!

Best Actress in a Play is crazily stacked, too:  Elaine May, Glenda Jackson, Laura Donnelly, Laurie Metcalf, Heidi Schreck, Annette Bening, Kerry Washington, Janet McTeer, Keri Russell, Cherry Jones, and maybe Kristine Nielsen depending on the size of the role.