Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread — Page 16

OKBroadwayFan said: "For those of you predicting Revival of a Musical. From the 2018 Rules:

Each year the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall determine whether there shall exist in quality and quantity a sufficient number of Revivals to merit the granting of an Award for Best Revival of a Play or Musical and, if so, the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall also determine whether there shall be a separate Play and Musical Revival category; provided, however, that if there are at least three such plays and three such musicals, there shall automatically be separate Play and Musical Revival categories.

Will there be a separate category for Musical Revival? Only two this year: Kiss Me Kate and Oklahoma!"

I highly doubt the committee would rule in such a way as to prevent Kiss Me Kate or Oklahoma from receiving recognition, as they are both sure to meet the "quality" criteria, though the last time there were fewer than 3 nominees in Best Musical was 2002 (coincidentally enough, a production of Oklahoma was one of the nominees that year).

Kad said: "OKBroadwayFan said: "For those of you predicting Revival of a Musical. From the 2018 Rules:

Each year the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall determine whether there shall exist in quality and quantity a sufficient number of Revivals to merit the granting of an Award for Best Revival of a Play or Musical and, if so, the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall also determine whether there shall be a separate Play and Musical Revival category; provided, however, that if there are at least three such plays and three such musicals, there shall automatically be separate Play and Musical Revival categories.

Will there be a separate category for Musical Revival? Only two this year: Kiss Me Kate and Oklahoma!"

I highly doubt the committee would rule in such a way as to prevent Kiss Me Kate or Oklahoma from receiving recognition, as they are both sure to meet the "quality" criteria, though the last time there were fewer than 3nominees in Best Musical was 2002 (coincidentally enough, a production of Oklahoma was one of the nominees that year).



Or will the category be "Best Revival Musical or Play"?
"

SomethingPeculiar said: "Best Revival of a Play fascinates me because the categoryhas no clear frontrunner. I always had LEAR penciled in for Best Revival because of the pedigree of Jackson + Gold + Rudin, but early reports all say it's a mess.The only two revivals we haven't seen yet areAll My SonsandBurn This.This season has had somegoodrevivals but no trulygreatrevivals.

Play Revivals this season:All My Sons,The Boys in the Band,Burn This,King Lear,Torch Song,True West,The Waverly Gallery"

I would think right now The Waverly Gallery is #1, with the other 2 yet to debut are the other contenders. It'd be great if Torch Song could get a win though. I'm not even sure Lear will get a nomination at this point

While the "road" presenters used to make up about a quarter of the voters, those numbers have changed in the last decade and so has their influence over the Tonys (that is of course assuming the majority of them vote the same way). Road presenters are now roughly 10-12% of Tony voters.

I personally think road voters are more than willing to vote for something daring for Best Musical. They have jukebox shows that will make them easy money without that Tony, Tootsie could already prove to be an easy sell without the Tony stamp. But Hadestown? You probably need the "Best Musical" title in front of it to sell it on the road. So why wouldnt they vote for that so they get yet another show they can sell?

bjh2114 said: "Elaine May will likely be nominated, but I think she'll have a hard time beating Jackson, Metcalf, Nielsen, and Schreck since her show will be long closed."



And probably Annette Bening ~ All My Sons

Rogerdellibovi said: "Anyone else just happy that there probably don’t be a sweep this year?Like I think hadestown will win best musical but not lead actor or actress, or best book."

I have to agree. I don't think one show will sweep this year. There are too many amazing performances that have been already getting raves, so I can't imagine a show like Hadestown pulling off a sweep across the board.

bjh2114 said: "Elaine May will likely be nominated, but I think she'll have a hard time beating Jackson, Metcalf, Nielsen, and Schreck since her show will be long closed."

I couldn't disagree more. In my opinion, Elaine May is one of the only locks to win, regardless of Waverly being closed. Not only did she deliver an absolutely stunning performance, but, as an 86-year-old legend returning to Broadway after over half a century, she will get the sentimental vote. I don't think anyone else can compete with that.

With all the other powerhouse performances in iconic roles, I fear Jeremy Pope may get left out of best actor. I really hope this isn't the cast though, as I think he 100% deserves it for Choir Boy. Daniels, Cranston, and Paddy Considine are the only locks right now I believe. Last 2 spots are up for grabs.

SomethingPeculiar said: "Mike Barrett said: "With all the other powerhouse performances in iconic roles, I fear Jeremy Pope may get left out of best actor. I really hope this isn't the cast though, as I think he 100% deserves it for Choir Boy. Daniels, Cranston, and Paddy Considine are the only locks right now I believe. Last 2 spots are up for grabs."

Two spots up for grabs, but this category is INSANE:Tracy Letts, Nathan Lane, Adam Driver, Michael Urie, Ethan Hawke,John Lithgow, Johnny Lee Miller, Daniel Radcliffe, Lucas Hedges, Jeremy Pope.

Honestly, even Considine could be vulnerable."

Which is why I think Jeremy Pope might get a nomination in Featured Musical for Ain't to Proud because they feel bad he is shut out of this category.

Megsamegatron said: "SomethingPeculiar said: "Mike Barrett said: "With all the other powerhouse performances in iconic roles, I fear Jeremy Pope may get left out of best actor. I really hope this isn't the cast though, as I think he 100% deserves it for Choir Boy. Daniels, Cranston, and Paddy Considine are the only locks right now I believe. Last 2 spots are up for grabs."

Two spots up for grabs, but this category is INSANE:Tracy Letts, Nathan Lane, Adam Driver, Michael Urie, Ethan Hawke,John Lithgow, Johnny Lee Miller, Daniel Radcliffe, Lucas Hedges, Jeremy Pope.

Honestly, even Considine could be vulnerable."

Which is why I think Jeremy Pope might get a nomination in Featured Musical for Ain't to Proud because they feel bad he is shut out of this category."

I haven't seen it so I can't verify, but it sounds like his role is a bit too small for a tony nom in that show. I think his chance is with choir boy but ya holy crap it is stacked. I mean I can see ANY of the people listed you mentioned nominated. Paddy might be vulnerable you're right, although I expect mass love for The Ferryman at least in terms of nominations. Should be a really fun category to watch. While I think Cranston deserves it, I don't think he is a 100% lock to win yet but a likely favorite for sure.

Celia Keenan-Bolger will probably be a four time Tony nominee is a stand out performance in a beloved show, she may win for Mockingbird. And now that Wilson is not the universally praised, what's her competition?