While, yes, EVERYTHING does good business during the holidays, it's also true that most shows struggle during January and February. SPAMALOT and THE ODD COUPLE will be sold out, but even perennial hits like LION KING and MAMMIA MIA, watch their box office fortunes dwindle for several weeks, with attendance figures in the 70s and 80s rather than doing their usual SRO business. As for the shows already struggling, there's a reason we often see as many as a half dozen shows close every year right after New Years. The tourists leave and the theatregoers in NYC area, fearing snow, don't buy tickets in advance (a large percentage of business becomes same day walk up service).
The shows that stick it out have large reserve funds set aside to supplement their income as box office drops to below break even for a couple of months. For a show like CHITTY, which has been able to pay back only a tiny percentage of its enormous original investment, it probably would not be the wisest thing to try and stay open until March and April when the tourists return, given the enormous amount of money they would lose during the months before.
We'll see, but a January closing sounds VERY likely for an expensive show like this that has never caught on with the public.
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie
[http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/]
"The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney