The 76th Annual Tony Award Nominations (2023)- Page 20

[yyys]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 10:15am

Rooting for Kimberly Akimbo and less Some Like It Hot (yeah, not a fan of it....)

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 1:39pm

Best Featured Actress in a Musical is the one I'm most excited to see announced tomorrow. I honestly loved both Bonnie Milligan and Betsy Wolfe so much and can't choose between the two of them.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 2:29pm

I really think Bonnie the lockiest award of the evening regard the actors in musical.

Honestly? maybe Brandon is more certain, but I see Chastain and Ashford beating the favorites in their categories before Milligan loses this one.

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 2:36pm

I really think Some Like It Hot will take it !!

[ACL2006]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 2:47pm

Some Like It Hot has more appeal to tour which should get it some votes over Kimberly Akimbo.

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 2:58pm

A successful tour has nothing to do with the award for Best Musical.

Bonnie, Brandon and Kimberly Akimbo are locks. 

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 3:10pm

Not at all. No locks this year.  Just take a look at the teams behind the shows. That’s how it should be looked at.  

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 3:18pm

ACL2006 said: "Some Like It Hot has more appeal to tour which should get it some votes over Kimberly Akimbo."

People always say stuff like this, but there really isn't much evidence that points to any sort of pattern for shows that tour well winning. 

Gent's Guide won over Aladdin and Beautiful, Fun Home over American in Paris and Something Rotten, Band's Visit over all three of its competitors, Strange Loop over MJ and SIX. 

I'm sure some people vote more for business considerations than on artistic merit. But, my personal theory is that all of that stuff tends to cancel out and let the artistic merit win. 

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 3:19pm

Correct. 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 3:23pm

BdwyFan said: "Not at all. No locks this year. Just take a look at the teams behind the shows. That’s how it should be looked at."

I would skeptical of Bonnie and Brandon being locks, even if I think they do both prevail. But, Michael Paulson actually polled Tony voters (it's a gift link for anyone who wants to read) and there are 100% locks this year as there are every year. 

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 3:24pm

MadsonMelo said: "I really think Bonnie the lockiest award of the evening regard the actors in musical."

Right show, wrong actor. I think there's no way Victoria Clark doesn't spin a disk. (I'm not saying Bonnie won't win, mind you. )

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 3:34pm

dramamama611 said: "MadsonMelo said: "I really think Bonnie the lockiest award of the evening regard the actors in musical."

Right show, wrong actor. I think there's no way Victoria Clark doesn't spin a disk. (I'm not saying Bonnie won't win, mind you. )"

In the end, they both been pretty sure since the off-broadway debut in 2021!

[BCfitasafiddle]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 4:19pm

Sara Bareilles is posting about her gown fittings and Parade is supposedly doing "This is Not Over Yet." So, despite being WGA members it seems like both Sara and Ben Platt will be at the Tonys! Wonder about Christian Borle and Annaleigh Ashford.

[ELP]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 4:38pm

BdwyFan said: "Not at all. No locks this year. Just take a look at the teams behind the shows. That’s how it should be looked at."

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/arts/tony-awards-winners-math-predictions-categories-1235511990/

[Ensemble1680343767]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 4:43pm

BCfitasafiddle said: "Sara Bareilles is posting about her gown fittings and Parade is supposedly doing "This is Not Over Yet." So, despite being WGA members it seems like both Sara and Ben Platt will be at the Tonys! Wonder about Christian Borle and Annaleigh Ashford."

Unless the WGA directory is wrong, it doesn’t appear that Ben is in the WGA. He nor any of the writers of Theater Camp, or the movie itself appear in the directory. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 6/10/23 at 4:50pm

jkcohen626 said: "ACL2006 said: "Some Like It Hot has more appeal to tour which should get it some votes over Kimberly Akimbo."

People always say stuff like this, but there really isn't much evidence that points to any sort of pattern for shows that tour well winning.

Gent's Guide won over Aladdin and Beautiful, Fun Home over American in Paris and Something Rotten, Band's Visit over all three of its competitors, Strange Loop over MJ and SIX.

I'm sure some people vote more for business considerations than on artistic merit. But, my personal theory is that all of that stuff tends to cancel out and let the artistic merit win."

Yep, I think the tour thing used to be a thing way back when, but that's been thoroughly debunked in recent years with the situations you pointed out. If anything, tour voters might favor a smaller show that can get the Best Musical moniker when it tours vs. something like MJ or Mean Girls that will do fine on tour with or without a Best Musical win.

[BoringBoredBoard40]

Posted: 6/11/23 at 1:38am

it seems like SLIH and Kimberly are neck and neck, wonder what show Shucked is pulling more votes from, I know two people who skipped Kimberly and saw Shucked over it for scheduling reasons (keep in mind you could skip a show and still vote in a category this year)

I think Kimberly wins the most awards of any musical but I think it might be in for a slight upset with Best Musical 

Updated On: 6/11/23 at 01:38 AM

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 6/11/23 at 2:48am

BoringBoredBoard40 said: "it seems like SLIH and Kimberly are neck and neck, wonder what show Shucked is pulling more votes from, I know two people who skipped Kimberly and saw Shucked over it for scheduling reasons (keep in mind you could skip a show and still vote in a category this year)

I think Kimberly wins the most awards of any musical but I think it might be in for a slight upset with Best Musical"

According to Michael Paulson's survey (and yes, I will broken record it b/c it's actual info and not speculation), they are not neck and neck. Kimberly has a solid lead, but will be a plurality winner. Some Like it Hot and Shucked are actually getting around the same amount of votes. 

[BoringBoredBoard40]

Posted: 6/11/23 at 3:00am

Michael Paulson only interviewed a 1/5th of the voters so who knows if that 5th just happened to lean towards certain shows, performers, etc (that was the first article I saw placing Topdog/Underdog to win best play revival for example) 

Just because something is leading within a sample doesn't always turn out to be a true trend as we have seen in the last several elections

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 6/11/23 at 3:11am

The 2016 and 20 elections poisoned the minds of so many people with regards to trusting polling and statistics and it just makes me so sad! 

 

[JasonC3]

Posted: 6/11/23 at 4:05am

jkcohen626 said: "The 2016 and 20 elections poisoned the minds of so many people with regards to trusting polling and statistics and it just makes me so sad!"

I 100% agree with this sentiment in general.  But if this is a response to anyone questioning Paulson's predictions, it gets a bit shakier for me.  As Paulson states, "This is not a scientific poll, but in past years this exercise has provided a reliable forecast of the ultimate winners in key categories."

So I trust it as far as he does.  But he doesn't tell us how reliable it was in the past nor do we have a margin of error on his current predictions.  As such, I take it as a pretty decent estimation of what the results might be, but the awards might still turn out differently.

 

[Musicaldudepeter]

Posted: 6/11/23 at 9:20am

Is there any chance Ruthie Ann Miles could upset and get a second Tony for her Beggar Woman? when she won in 2015 for Lady Thiang, she was against three performers from Fun Home, and a lot of people predicted Sydney Lucas or Judy Kuhn to take it but Miles won for her understated, but praised performance in a secondary role with not a lot to do. She might take home the gold again for a similar performance. 

[yyys]

Posted: 6/11/23 at 9:25am

anything is possible.....rooting for her !

Musicaldudepeter said: "Is there any chance Ruthie Ann Miles could upset and get a second Tony for her Beggar Woman? when she won in 2015 for Lady Thiang, she was against three performers from Fun Home, and a lot of people predicted Sydney Lucas or Judy Kuhn to take it but Miles won for her understated, but praised performance in a secondary role with not a lot to do. She might take home the gold again for a similar performance."

 

[Kad]

Posted: 6/11/23 at 9:59am

Musicaldudepeter said: "Is there any chance Ruthie Ann Miles could upset and get a second Tony for her Beggar Woman? when she won in 2015 for Lady Thiang, she was against three performers from Fun Home, and a lot of people predicted Sydney Lucas or Judy Kuhn to take it but Miles won for her understated, but praised performance in a secondary role with not a lot to do. She might take home the gold again for a similar performance."

It’s not impossible but it is extremely unlikely.

[Musicaldudepeter]

Posted: 6/11/23 at 10:00am

I would love it to happen. There is a LOT of love for Miles in the industry, and I can see a lot of voters ticking her name as a result