Flop & Best Musical predictions for new season

[Sylar2]

Posted: 1/6/11 at 11:32pm

This is one of the most exciting seasons I can remember but a lot of the shows are going to be competing for the same dollar. So, which of the new shows do you think won't make it to summer?

My biggest bet is that Wonderland will crash and burn quick.

I think the Best Musical battle is going to come down to Catch Me if You Can and The Book of Mormon... and I'd be happy with either of those winning.

What say you!

[VernonGersch]

Posted: 1/7/11 at 1:49am

Looking forward to BOOK OF MORMON - those guys are brillant...I already bought my tickets - still not sure about CATCH ME...I'll wait and see what the board buzzes about before I pick up my tickets to that...

Already have tix for JERUSALEM, ANYTHING GOES and BOOK - debating betwen SPIDERMAN and CATCH ME for my last slot...

[Sylar2]

Posted: 1/12/11 at 11:12pm

Friends that were able to see the workshop said the music in Book of Mormon is very legit Broadway but I'm sorta baffled why there is nothing out there. I've now heard music from SisterAct, Wonderland, Catch Me, etc yet Book of Mormon seems to be keeping things secretive.

Has anyone heard anything from it? I keep hoping they post something to their Facebook but sadly nothing yet

[NotSinceCarrie2]

Posted: 1/12/11 at 11:30pm

Well, we've already had three musicals flop this fall, so hopefully that should appease the gods for awhile.

The year's big artistic hit, IMO, will be Book of Mormon. Everything else (even Wonderland and Spider-Man) will have respectable, if not spectacular, grosses. That being said, I imagine How to Succeed will close first (give or take two weeks after Radcliffe's contract expires).

Side note: is Sister Act playing up its Disney roots? If so, that could help it, and if it proves successful, I wouldn't be surprised if (among others) Down and Out in Beverly Hills -- The Musical occurs in the future

[threetwoone]

Posted: 1/12/11 at 11:34pm

I LOVED 'Catch Me' in Seattle, but unless they overhauled the show for the better, I don't think it's best musical material, sadly Though I do wish to be proven wrong. Tony's for leading and supporting actors/actresses? Yes.

[TheatreFan27]

Posted: 1/13/11 at 5:47pm

I have hardly a clue of what BOOK OF MORMON is about but I have this gut feeling that it will win the Tony for Best Musical this year! I also think it will be very popular amongst the younger crowd. Could it take the route of AVENUE Q? I already have my tickets for CATCH ME IF YOU CAN this April and will be checking out SPIDER-MAN in March. This is definitley going to be one of the most interesting seasons/Tony Awards in a while...

[quizking101]

Posted: 1/13/11 at 5:54pm

I'm still hoping BBAJ wins the Tony. (Which if it did, it would break the record for shortest-running Best Musical winner, succeeding PASSION)

I think PRISCILLA, SISTER ACT, THE BOOK OF MORMON, and CATCH ME IF YOU CAN will cause the most fervor.

For me, the jury is out on HOW TO SUCCEED (since we don't know how Daniel Radcliffe sings) and THE PEOPLE IN THE PICTURE.

I'm thinking WONDERLAND and SPIDER-MAN will fold like origami swans.

[wickedfan11]

Posted: 1/13/11 at 6:00pm

quizking- Have you seen the grosses for Spider-Man? It looks like it will last a long time.

[quizking101]

Posted: 1/13/11 at 6:13pm

Ok...I'm HOPING.

[RippedMan]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 2:28pm

I think Spider-Man will lose steam whenever it actually opens. Once the word gets out that it's not actually all that great, and kind of sloppy. But, I don't think it will close quickly or anything.

Wonderland will probably bomb. With all the other shows opening this season/spring, I think it will just be forgotten and overlooked. It doesn't have any "names" in it, and it doesn't really have any great material for it's leading lady. Like, with "Sister Act," I think everyone will be talking about Patina Miller.

The sides I've read for "Book of Mormon" are hilariously offensive. Let's just say they go to Africa and there is a whole AIDs bit. I think the songs are probably more part of the show, so wouldn't be so great out of context. Like, they aren't stand alone pop songs, they are funny because of the context.

I forgot about Donna Murphy. Hm, that throws a wrench into Best Actress category. I thought Patina had it in the bag, but we'll see.

[philly03]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 2:37pm

I agree with RippedMan .. once reviews come out for Spider-man (pending them being raves), it won't sell as good because most the mystery (& hopefully injuries/etc) will be over with.

Re; WONDERLAND - Janet has the best material in the show, having several solos: "Worst Day of My Life" (altered from the concept album greatly now), "Down the Rabbit Hole," "Once More I Can See," and "Finding Wonderland," not to mention several duets, and other touching moments. She's on stage pretty much the entire show.

That being said I think Sister Act will prove to be a big hit, Catch Me If You Can will do good business but no where near the sell-outs some people have been anticipating, and Priscilla, also, will not be a huge hit like everyone is saying.

[Overkill]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 3:09pm

I think Spider-Man will be running for a long time. Even after officially opening. It's a bigger name show than something like Mamma Mia and that's still running. It's just going to be a huge tourist trap that will run and run.

Catch Me If You Can is fantastic and I love it to pieces. I think it will definitley be nominated for Best Musical, and it should probably win, but I haven't seen The Book of Morman (nor has anyone), so knows?

From what I hear with Wonderland, it's not the show I was hoping for. I thinkn it'll have a repectable run, but it won't last longer than a year or so.

As for How to Succeed, it will make a ton of money with all the Harry Potter kids running to see it. He'll probably close the show after a year. I see it following the same trend as Promises, Promises.

Sister Act will do well, because it's a BIG movie that everyone knows and it has Alan Menken music. Right there, it'll be nominated for actress and score at least.

So, the real flop of the season will probably end up being Wonderland.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 3:21pm

Remember when everybody predicted MEMPHIS would be a huge flop before it opened and that THE ADDAMS FAMILY would be the shoo-in for Best Musical?

I always love looking back at these threads come Tony time.

That said, I think SISTER ACT & CATCH ME will be successes. I'm most excited for SISTER ACT, BOOK OF MORMON, and to see what they do to help improve CATCH ME.

SPIDER-MAN should be interesting to keep an eye on. I find it very hard to believe it can sustain a run long enough to be a financial success. It would have to sell out every ticket to every performance for 3+ years.

I'm genuinely excited for a lot of musical productions this season, come to think of it....
Updated On: 1/14/11 at 03:21 PM

[Jon]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 3:28pm

PRISCILLA seems to be aimed at the same audience as XANADU, and will probably do about as well.

MORMON seems aimed at the URINETOWN audience, and hopefully, will be as good and do as well.

[BroadwayGuy12]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 3:39pm

I'm quite excited for the spring's musicals, especially because the fall played out so much more differently than I had expected.

I thought WOMEN ON THE VERGE was going to be my favorite new musical of the fall and probably even a contender for Best Musical. Then I saw it. I really enjoyed BLOODY BLOODY ANDREW JACKSON and THE SCOTTSBORO BOYS, but don't expect to see much of them come awards season.

This spring, I'm most excited for CATCH ME and SISTER ACT, although I'm not expecting either to be huge critical hits. I think BOOK OF MORMON will play well with the critics, and I'm quite curious to see how THE PEOPLE IN THE PICTURE is received. I know nothing about it; it really could go either way.

[fingerlakessinger]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 3:43pm

BOOK OF MORMON I think will be the smash hit along with SISTER ACT

WONDERLAND will most likely be the ugly duckling and grab decent grosses and get a few noms, most likely NOT best musical (I have a feeling that BOM and SA will grab those noms and BOM will win)

SPIDER-MAN I think will die rather quickly after opening (if it ever does)
Right now the press surrounding it is so vast that most are seeing it to be able to say they did see it. However, once it runs for a bit, word of mouth is going to go out and it will die.
Already if I'm not mistaken, a majority of people are walking out with a "meh" feeling, and that "meh" feeling is not going to redeem the insane ticket prices.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 3:57pm

I wouldn't underestimate Priscilla. It has spectacle and a mainstream pop score on its side.

I saw Sister Act in London and I fear it will struggle. I don't see the reviews being stronger than Women on the Verge, but the familiar title and strong marketing could give it a bit of traction.

I sort of assumed Catch Me if You Can would be the big hit this season, but Book of Mormon could be its strongest competitor. The lid on Mormon is so tight, though. We really don't know what to expect. If they push it too far, they could have a Jerry Springer: The Opera on their hands and the response could be too polarizing for a commercial hit. Catch Me if You Can will have a snazzy score and sex appeal on its side. Plus, it is tour material.

People in the Picture will go the way of Everyday Rapture.

Spider-Man could do well financially, but the critics will rip everything to shreds except perhaps design if they get it sorted.

Though I generally like Wildhorn, I don't have high hopes for Wonderland. I just don't think the concept is compelling enough to bring in audiences (especially with no bankable stars attached) nor the material strong enough to win over the critics. The only thing the show has going for it is Alice in Wonderland which has proven to be rocky material to navigate. Only the Disney animated film has given a universally embraced vision of the source material. It would need some astounding visuals, instantly memorable tunes and a fiercely engaging story to compete with Wicked, which seems to be its closest competitor.

I'm just sad Women on the Verge closed. I loved it and I saw a truly Tony-worthy performance from Benanti. And I haven't been as obsessed with a score in YEARS.

[tazber]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 5:10pm

Spiderman will exist in it's own orbit. It won't get critical kudos and will probably always be a punchline on boards such as this.

But it will be a huge hit and a consistent seller. I honestly think it will run for a very long time.

As far as the rest, who knows? I'd say that Sister Act, Catch Me, and Mormon have the most potential to be hits.

How To Suceed will probably do really well also.

For some reason I don't think Anything Goes will make much of a splash.

Wonderland and People In The Picture are going to have the biggest challenge finding an audience in such a crowded season.

Priscilla is a wild card.