I'd like to add Caissie Levy from "Ghost". Really hoping she gets a nomination. And I'll join the group in saying Peters doesn't deserve a nomination.
As of now, my 5 are: Caissie Levy, Jan Maxwell, Audra McDonald, Elena Rogers & Christin Milioti, with Kelli O'Hara as the dark horse.
A Chorus Line revival played its final Broadway performance on August 17, 2008. The tour played its final performance on August 21, 2011. A new non-equity tour started in October 2012 played its final performance on March 23, 2013. Another non-equity tour launched on January 20, 2018. The tour ended its US run in Kansas City and then toured throughout Japan August & September 2018.
I didn't see the latest readings, but based on past versions I would think Kelli O'Hara is likely for a nomination. It's a pretty flashy role that gives her lots of opportunities to show off and I'm sure Kathleen Marshall will showcase her well.
At this point I would say Jan Maxwell, Audra McDonald and Elena Roger are definitely IN, with Bernadette Peters and Kelli O'Hara likely (but not guaranteed at this point) and then Jessica Philips and Cristin Milioti battling it out for the last spot. Of course that could all change once all the shows are actually playing.
And even if she doesn't win, Jan Maxwell will be only the 4th person to be nominated in all 4 acting categories (Boyd Gaines, Raul Esparza and Angela Lansbury are the only others, right?). That is quite an accomplishment all on its own.
As of now, my 5 are: Caissie Levy, Jan Maxwell, Audra McDonald, Elena Rogers & Christin Milioti, with Kelli O'Hara as the dark horse.
Regardless of Kelli's role, there is no situation in which Kelli is the dark horse behind a nomination for Caissie Levy's underwhelming performance in Ghost.
While we're at it, what about the men? Have they decided where Danny Burstein and Ron Raines are going to end up? I'm going to assume Burstein is in Featured.
Could this be a Porgy and Bess acting sweep, with Audra for Best Actress and Norm Lewis for Best Actor? I'm trying to think of other people up for Best Actor and in my head I remember Jeremy Jordan (technically twice but if he gets nominated for anything it will be Newsies), Harry Connick Jr., Matthew Broderick, Ricky Martin, Paul Nolan, and Josh Young. Obviously we've only seen Lewis, Jordan (to an extent), and Connick so far so it's too early to call, but it seems as if Lewis has gotten the best notices.
Do NOT count out Steve Kazee for Once, who I think is a shoe-in for a nomination. Also Richard Fleeshman will be eligible, but I doubt he will be nominated.
And while I think its ridiculous to be discussing any of this since there is still 19 shows left to open, i will place any amount of money that Cristen Milloti of ONCE wins, her performance is amazing, within the first 5 minutes of her being on stage I knew she was the winner this year, she is hilarious, heartbreaking and has an amazing voice.
I must say that I really don't get the general feeling that Bernadette isn't deserving of a nod this year. I thought she was amazing. True, I'd rather have Jan Maxwell than her win the tony, but I really think she gave everything she had in her performance of Sally. I was truly touched by her.
Anyway, I'm not the kind to predict a nomination for a show/perfomance that I didn't see and there are still a lot of time before the Tony's so I'll simly say that at this moment, I can only say that Jan, Audra and Bernadette all deserves to be nominated.
What I really want from the Tony's this year though(like a lot of people) is to see Danny Burstein win for Best Actor. He is overdue and his performance of Buddy was near perfection.
I agree that Bernadette also truly gave everything she could to her performance. She is such a hard working actress. I think her performance of "In Buddy's Eyes" is as good as many of her other classic performances and think she should be nominated. But FOLLIES will be long closed and there is so much competition from new shows opening.
If Bernadette didn't get a nomination and FOLLIES were still open I would care a little more.
"You can't overrate Bernadette Peters. She is such a genius. There's a moment in "Too Many Mornings" and Bernadette doing 'I wore green the last time' - It's a voice that is just already given up - it is so sorrowful. Tragic. You can see from that moment the show is going to be headed into such dark territory and it hinges on this tiny throwaway moment of the voice." - Ben Brantley (2022)
"Bernadette's whole, stunning performance [as Rose in Gypsy] galvanized the actors capable of letting loose with her. Bernadette's Rose did take its rightful place, but too late, and unseen by too many who should have seen it" Arthur Laurents (2009)
"Sondheim's own favorite star performances? [Bernadette] Peters in ''Sunday in the Park,'' Lansbury in ''Sweeney Todd'' and ''obviously, Ethel was thrilling in 'Gypsy.'' Nytimes, 2000
I think her performance of "In Buddy's Eyes" is as good as many of her other classic performances and think she should be nominated.
In Buddy's Eyes is my favorite part of her whole performance as Sally. There is such nuance and conflicted feelings expressed in her rendition of that song that she should be nominated just for it.
But like you said, Follies is already closed and might be forgotten come Tony time. I don't understand why it would be, but then again I'm not really familiar with the whole thing. I watch it every year, but I have no clue on how the nominations are made and who are the Tony voters.
Bernie will get a Nom. and Audra will win. Saying Bernadette was "out of control" as the run went on is crazy, did anyone see the Pone most of her GYPSY run? She was wearing wool slippers and yelling at the audience. Both times I saw Peters do LOSING MY MIND, I was riveted. scared and in awe. I could be wrong.
This is such an exciting season for the Best Actress category. I'm personally pulling for Audra McDonald. But I wouldn't mind if it went to Jan Maxwell.
I hope Kelli O'Hara gives an exceptional performance in "Nice Work..." I'm not familiar with the show (not even the score), but I hope it works. Mainly because I want a cast album!
Well, I don't think Lansbury will win, but if Ann Sothern managed to get a Golden Globe nomination for playing the part in a movie version, I certainly believe that the queen of the Tonys (literally, she's the first-ever Honorary Chairman of The American Theatre Wing) can get at least a Tony nomination.
My predictions are: Jessie Mueller (On A Clear Day) Laura Osnes (Bonnie and Clyde) Audra McDonald (Porgy and Bess) Bernadette Peters (Follies) Caisse Levy (Ghost)
Bernie could star as the titular character in a jukebox musical version of Rango with songs by Ke$ha and stell get nominated. But it's really between Jan and Audra.
Jessie Mueller gave my favorite performance this season so far....that is a performance that deserves acclaim based not on a legendary career, but simply on what she did on that stage each night. My fingers are crossed that she is remembered with a nomination, but even if she is not, the quality and skill will not be diminished in my mind.
Jessie Mueller is eligible in the featured category, NOT the leading category. And though the show is closed, I still think she has an excellent shot at being nominated (it's probably the only nomination the show will get).