adamgreer said: "Sander is up 51-48 in Michigan with 20% in. That's not what polling showed, but maybe the 4 counties where polls close at 9 will swing the primary to Hillary. "
Yeah, I feel we need John King's magic map to make any sense of those early numbers right now.
The Dems of MI have an open primary and it's estimated that about 20% of the primary voters are indies. Those indies are voting for Sanders. Hillary is banking on Wayne County and another heavily populated Democrat-leaning county to get her over the wall. It's definitely too close to call right now on either side of the ledger.
She is down about 9,000 votes. It's gonna come down to the wire, but either way they are gonna split the delegates.
Is Sanders giving his press conference in the back yard from Home Improvement?
I love that you could hear crickets in the background while he was speaking.
Donna Brazile just said on CNN "If Bernie Sanders wins tonight, we could go until June. We could have another 2008."
I don't see her winning Michigan tonight, sadly.
Since the delegates are determined proportionately, wouldn't Sanders need a pretty massive win in Michigan to help make this more competitive? Obviously he'll gain delegates, but so will Clinton, so doesn't the whole thing become a wash if they're very close?
Michigan splits delegates. So this isn't a win for Bernie in terms of the numbers. It's a win in terms of the narrative.
The AP is the first to call Michigan for Sanders. Mazel tov on another impressive win, Bernie.
It looks like Clinton takes home 81 delegates tonight to Sander's 64.
Will be interesting to see more analysis on how virtually every pollster got Michigan so wrong. With a Real Clear poll average of a 20-point win for Hillary projected, tonight's results serve as a reminder to take that proverbial grain of salt with every tea leaf reading. I'm sure we'll be reading more on that over the next few days. For now FiveThirtyEight had this to say:
"There are a few possible explanations for the huge polling miss in the Michigan Democratic primary: For instance, if a significant number of Clinton supporters stayed home out of complacency or crossed over to the Republican primary to oppose Trump, that may have contributed to Sanders’s shocking win. We might get more explanations from pollsters soon — I’ve emailed several who showed Clinton ahead by 10 percentage points or more to ask why they think the polls were so far from the voting results. Here’s another possible explanation: The most recent Michigan polls in our database stopped contacting voters Sunday, the night of the last debate, held in Flint, Michigan. Although many thought Clinton performed better than Sanders in the debate, perhaps voters felt differently. After many pollsters missed Ted Cruz’s Iowa win and suggested that Clinton would win Iowa easily — she won so narrowly that some call it a tie — several pollsters told usa lesson they learned: “Keep on contacting voters as late as possible.” But it’s up to poll sponsors to pay to contact voters until the final days of the race, and none did so in Michigan."
Updated On: 3/9/16 at 12:44 AM
Sanders could have a real chance at gaining the nomination if the superdelegates were to come around.
Only if he starts winning big in delegate-rich states. Barely eking out a win doesn't do him any favors. Since Democrats award pledged delegates proportionately (not by winner takes all), he and Clinton will just split the delegates, which will make it harder for him to catch up. On Monday, he had a 200 delegate deficit, and now it's up to 218.
No doubt that barely losing Michigan was a minor setback for Clinton, but she still came out the night's winner, thanks to her major win in Mississippi. At the end of the day, she got 87 delegates to his 69. She actually widened her lead by 18 delegates and now has 762 pledged delegates to his 544.
Next week (when delegate-rich Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio vote) should give us a clearer picture whether Sanders' MI win was a fluke and it's the beginning of the end, or if it gave him any momentum.
"Will be interesting to see more analysis on how virtually every pollster got Michigan so wrong."
Congratulations to Sanders who acquitted himself well last night. I can't believe that none of the soothsyaers took into consideration the fact the Dems were holding an open primary. Independent voters came out in support of Sanders. The Dem nominee must shore up the numbers in the Rust Belt because Trump plays well in that area where voters are down on any form of trade agreement. I'm sensing that NAFTA, TPP, and similar deals are liabilities for establishment candidates across the board in this election cycle. Both Trump and Sanders were able to catch the anti-trade-agreement wave brilliantly. Hillary is nearly half way to the nomination but her team has much work to do ahead of OH, WI, and PA.
Edited to correct party:
One narrative the media got wrong was that because Michigan colleges would be on spring break, Sanders would have a problem as his core group of young voters "would all be in Florida or The Virgin Islands." (language from one article I read) But, in reality, most college students on break go home, at least in the Midwest, and having time on their hands, had nothing better to do than go to the polls. Clinton needs to worry about that, because Illinois colleges will be on break for the primary on the 15th. Plus, both Illinois and Ohio are open primaries, which allows independents to skew the Democrats' outcome.
Another one is the issue of open primaries, in which you can vote whether you are registered for the party or not.
Twenty of the 50 states have them, including three of next week's four big primaries (North Carolina, Ohio, and Illinois). So even though this wasn't a problem for Hillary in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia, Republicans and independents who favor Bernie were more heavily represented in Michigan Democratic primary last night.
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Illinois
Indiana
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Wisconsin
Broadway Legend Joined: 9/16/07
The indispensable Josh Barro explains why Hillary is just fine.
Business Insider: Hillary Clinton shouldn't panic after her stunning Michigan loss — but here's what she should worry about:
http://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-michigan-bernie-sanders-panic-2016-3
I'm really disliking Jorge Ramos as moderator. First the e-mails, then Benghazi?
His daughter Paola must be cringing back at campaign HQ.
Where are all the tough/unfair questions for Bernie?
Tonight's debate is borderline boring for several reasons. I've not been a fan of Jorge's pointed questions so far especially those regarding the deportation of children and illegals with clean records. To me, Bernie made promises in that respect that could come back to haunt him in the general election if he makes it that far. Hillary really clapped back at Maria Elena Salinas with "Everything I just said answered the question..." That was epic. Many of the questions are too direct and the dual language format doesn't serve the debate well either. Perhaps subtitles would be more useful than voice-overs which I find somewhat distracting.
I thought Bernie did a lot better in this debate than he did in the last one. That said, I thought Ramos treated Hillary somewhat unfairly. It was like he was overcompensating because his daughter works for Hillary's campaign. With that conflict of interest, he simply should have recused himself from moderating. But, I guess that's a hard pill for the breakout star of a network to do. It would be like telling Anderson Coops to not moderate any of CNN's debates.
"With that conflict of interest, he simply should have recused himself from moderating."
Amen, bruh...and what did you all think of Jorge's question to Hillary regarding a possible indictment?
javero said: ""With that conflict of interest, he simply should have recused himself from moderating."
Amen, bruh...and what did you all think of Jorge's question to Hillary regarding a possible indictment?"
Hillary handled it well. I thought it was a ridiculous line of questioning. Just like I think all of the "gotcha" clips and quotes they tried to use on both Hillary and Bernie were ridiculous. I mean, asking Bernie about a very random and inconsequential aside he made in 1985? Dumb, dumb, dumb.
The lady whose husband was deported left the most lasting impression, I think. Her face broke my heart.
Videos