Yes, but if the role isn't meaty/interesting enough, she won't be on anyone's radar. And certainly no more "out there" of a comment then just assuming she will get a nom simply for originating a role.
chrishuyen said: "I'm really curious about how Suffs will be because the production at the Public had a lot of promise but needed major edits."
They did an extensive workshop/backers audition in the fall (without Shaina performing in it this time so she could focus on the writing), but I don't know how much it has changed since the Public run, if Jill Furman & co have the $$ in place to move ahead, or if there are theatre owners willing to give them a house.
Of all the recent(ish) Public musicals, I'd frankly prefer David Henry Hwang & Jeanine Tesori's SOFT POWER.
You’re all assuming Harmony makes it until June.
It doesn’t exactly have the same momentum as most other off Broadway transfers.
RippedMan said: "You’re all assuming Harmony makes it until June.
It doesn’t exactly have the same momentum as most other off Broadway transfers."
It's early and off-bway "momentum" is pretty meaningless (small theatre people bubbles). There's not a show on my list that is a guaranteed hit. What HARMONY does have is Barry Manilow, promoting this show more actively than I expected he might. That's not a 1/1 translation to ticket sales (as we know from plenty of other famous pop stars whose writing efforts have failed on Bway), but pre-opening he makes the show much more press-friendly than Wine & Roses or Suffs or Lempicka.
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/21/20
Fetch Clay, Make Man
This is another possibility for a transfer - it's a play about the relationship between Muhammad Ali (Ray Fisher) and Stepin Fetchit (Edwin Lee Gibson) that's opened to strong reviews in LA.
Well, there aren't any obvious ready-to-transfer Off-Broadway hits waiting for a theater this time around, so the 23-24 Broadway season is pretty wide open in terms of awards as of now. That hasn't been the case in a while. Going back to 2014, only 2 Best Musical winners have not originated off-Broadway (Gentleman's Guide and Moulin Rouge). And of those 7 other shows, only Hadestown was not a carbon-copy transfer of its off-Broadway production. And all of those off-Broadway transfers were obvious frontrunners from the get go.
Understudy Joined: 5/3/23
Kad said: "Well, there aren't any obvious ready-to-transfer Off-Broadway hits waiting for a theater this time around, so the 23-24 Broadway season is pretty wide open in terms of awards as of now. That hasn't been the case in a while. Going back to 2014, only 2 Best Musical winners have not originated off-Broadway (Gentleman's Guide and Moulin Rouge). And of those 7 other shows, only Hadestown was not a carbon-copy transfer of its off-Broadway production. And all of those off-Broadway transfers were obvious frontrunners from the get go."
What I’m hearing you say is that you DON’T think “White Girl in Danger” is ready to transfer?
(Hopefully the sarcasm read&hellip
I would love for it to transfer so it could baffle even more audiences and so Tarra Conner Jones could get well deserved recognition for her performance but yeah, seems highly unlikely in the near future.
Understudy Joined: 5/3/23
To be fair, I did not see it, but all of my friends who did thought it was too long and that the plot was a mess, which is where my not-ready-to transfer comment came from. I love supporting new musicals though, so hopefully they can get the show ready for a transfer!
Evita, Jesus Christ Superstar, Beauty and the Beast, Damn Yankees, Kiss of the Spiderwoman, Pal Joey, The Secret Garden, Spamalot, Light in the Piazza, Dear World, Chess, Cabaret, The Wiz, Merrily We Roll Along
Goddess, Suffs, The Notebook, Water for Elephants, The Great Gatsby, Hells Kitchen, Secret Life of Bees, Come Fall in Love
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/21/20
It just occurred to me that depending on if/when the transfer of A Wonderful World happens, James Monroe Iglehart could be a double nominee in Best Actor in a Musical.
Broadway Star Joined: 10/14/21
Now that Suffs is officially coming in, we have 11 musicals officially announced for this season that are vying for Best Musical (let alone Lempicka which hasn't announced yet): Back to the Future, Days of Wine and Roses, Gutenberg! The Musical!, Harmony, Here Lies Love, How to Dance in Ohio, The Notebook, Once Upon a One More Time, The Outsiders, Suffs, and Water for Elephants.
What a stacked season.
ElephantLoveMedley said: "Now thatSuffsis officially coming in, we have 11 musicals officially announced for this season that are vying for Best Musical (let aloneLempickawhich hasn't announced yet):Back to the Future, Days of Wine and Roses, Gutenberg! The Musical!, Harmony, Here Lies Love, How to Dance in Ohio, The Notebook, Once Upon a One More Time, The Outsiders, Suffs, andWater for Elephants.
What a stacked season."
Definitely a stacked season with no real frontrunner which makes it extra interesting. My money is on The Outsiders for now but it really could go so may ways.
My money’s on Days of Wine and Roses, but that might suffer from the disadvantage of being a closed show when the ceremony rolls around.
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/21/20
On the verge of a new year and with the season more clearly defined, time for new wild speculation!
Best Musical
Best Play
Best Musical Revival
Best Play Revival
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Director - Musical
Best Director - Play
Best Book of a Musical
Best Score
I'm going to zone in on some of these categories.
KevinKlawitter said: "On the verge of a new year and with the season more clearly defined, time for new wild speculation!
Best Play
**"The Shark Is Broken" has a very slim if any chance of making it in to the mix. This seems like a head to head between Appropriate and Prayer for the French Republic - both critical darlings with preceding reptuations.
Best Musical Revival
**Probably going to be Merrily's to lose, but I see "The Wiz" getting in over "Gutenberg", depending on how much they change on the road to Broadway and also recency bias.
Best Play Revival
**Hard to call, but unless any of these other productions is a true knockout or rides the wave of recency bias, I'd be hard pressed to not see Kenny Leon claim another winning Play Revival trophy.
Best Actor in a Musical
**Gustin unseen, this whole category feels rather weak to me this year. I was not as knocked out by Zien and Groff as many were. I don't think Gad and Rannells will break in since they come as a matched set.
Best Actor in a Play
**I'm assuming everyone in Prayer for the French Republic is considered Featured until otherwise noted, so swap out Edwards for probably Madge unless they really want to stack the deck and add DeVito, or even expand the category.
Best Actress in a Play
**Removing Jaja's cast from consideration since the Tony nominators ruled them all as featured. - https://www.broadwaynews.com/tony-awards-committee-issues-first-eligibility-rulings-for-2023-2024-season-2/ and also sticking with removing the French Republic cast for the same reason. You could actually add Laura Bell Bundy for The Cottage in the mix - since she seemed to be the standout of an otherwise middling show.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
**I would be shocked if HOW TO DANCE IN OHIO ended up in any major categories since I think it will be closed and long forgotten by awards season. I could see Kyle Ramar Freeman as The Lion in THE WIZ sneaking in, since there is precedent for that role being a nominee (and winner). You also have an embarassment of riches in the SPAMALOT cast and also Ato-Blankson Wood and Steven Skybell for CABARET
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
**Seems about right. No notes.
Best Featured Actor in a Play
**Move the French Republic actors down here for contention, and switch out Jay O. Sanders for Billy Eugene Jones (although I'd be delighted if both made it in).
Best Featured Actress in a Play
**Move the Jaja ladies down to this category, but I think Kara Young may actually be the one to beat here. She will become the first African-American actress to earn three consecutive Tony nominations in three years and she's overdue for a win. It would be history making AND well deserved.
If Kecia Lewis transfers with Hell's Kitchen, I'd be surprised if she wasn't nominated, and, personally, I'd rather she got in over Shoshana Bean, if it came down to that.
Updated On: 12/31/23 at 02:08 PM
I honestly don’t care who gets nominated, I just want to best Adam Feldman for a second year in a row with my winner predictions. Nothing against him, but it should lead to some playful ribbing.
Featured Actor Joined: 12/28/21
OK, I'll play. I'm ignoring Stereophonic in acting categories since I don't know where they'll be categorized.
Musical
Noms
Hell's Kitchen
Here Lies Love
Suffs
The Notebook
Water for Elephants
Contenders
Days of Wine and Roses
Lempicka
The Outsiders
Play
Noms
Appropriate
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Mother Play
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic
Contenders
Just for Us
Mary Jane
My Son's a Queer
Play Revival
I assume there will be only three
Noms
Doubt
Purlie Victorious
Uncle Vanya
Contender
An Enemy of the People
Musical Revival
Noms
Cabaret
Gutenberg
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who's Tommy
Contenders
Spamalot
The Wiz
Leading Actor - Play
Noms
Steve Carell - Uncle Vanya
William Jackson Harper - Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Purlie Victorious
Jeremy Strong - An Enemy of the People
Liev Schreiber - Doubt
Contenders
Danny DeVito - I Need That
Alex Edelman - Just for Us
Eric McCormack - The Cottage
Rob Madge - My Son's a Queer...
Leading Actress - Play
Noms
Tyne Daly - Doubt
Jessica Lange - Mother Play
Rachel McAdams - Mary Jane
Laura Bell Bundy - The Cottage
Sarah Paulson - Appropriate
Contenders
Tatiana Maslany - Grey House
Laurie Metcalf - Grey House
Celia Keenan-Bolger - Mother Play
Leading Actor - Musical
Noms
Jonathan Groff - Merrily We Roll Along
Brian D'Arcy James - Days of Wine and Roses
Ryan Vazquez - The Notebook
Eddie Redmayne - Cabaret
Chip Zien - Harmony
Contenders
Roger Bart - Back to the Future
Josh Gad - Gutenberg
Andrew Rannells - Gutenberg
Grant Gustin - Water for Elephants
Brody Grant - The Outsiders
Tommy
Leading Actress - Musical
Noms
Kelli O'Hara - Days of Wine and Roses
Joy Woods - The Notebook
Eden Espinoza - Lempicka
Gayle Rankin - Cabaret
Maleah Joi Moon - Hell's Kitchen
Contenders
Arielle Jacobs - Here Lies Love
Isabelle McCalla - Water for Elephants
Nichelle Lewis - The Wiz
Shaina Taub - Suffs
Featured Actor - Play
Noms
Jay O. Sanders - Purlie Victorious
Michael Imperioli - An Enemy of the People
Anthony Edwards - Prayer for the French Republic
Jim Parsons - Mother Play
Alfred Molina - Uncle Vanya
Contenders
Ari Brand - Prayer for the French Republic
Alex Moffat - The Cottage
Colin Donnell - The Shark is Broken
Stereophonic?
Featured Actress - Play
Noms
Kara Young - Purlie Victorious
Francis Benhamou - Prayer for the French Republic
Quincy Tyler Bernstine - Doubt
Alison Pill - Uncle Vanya
Elle Fanning - Appropriate
Contenders
Sophia Anne Caruso - Grey House
One of the women from Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Betsy Aidem - Prayer for the French Republic
Jayne Houdyshell - Uncle Vanya
Anika Noni Rose - Uncle Vanya
Victoria Pedretti - An Enemy of the People
Featured Actor - Musical
Noms
Paul Alexander Nolan - Water for Elephants
Ato Blankson-Wood - Cabaret
Daniel Radcliffe - Merrily We Roll Along
Brandon Victor Dixon - Hell's Kitchen
Conrad Ricamora - Here Lies Love
Contenders
One of the Spamalot men (I'd vote for Ethan Slater)
John Cardoza - The Notebook
One of The Outsiders
Someone from The Wiz
Featured Actress - Musical
Noms
Maryann Plunkett - The Notebook
Bebe Neuwirth - Cabaret
Lindsay Mendez - Merrily We Roll Along
Kecia Lewis - Hell's Kitchen
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer - Spamalot
Contenders
Krystal Joy Brown - Merrily
Jennifer Simard - Once Upon a One More Time
Deborah Cox - The Wiz
Shoshana Bean - Hell's Kitchen
Someone from Suffs (Grace McLean has a real shot if she stays with it)
Direction - Play
Noms
Lila Neugebauer - Appropriate
Kenny Leon - Purlie Victorious
David Cromer - Prayer for the French Republic
Daniel Aukin - Stereophonic
Tina Landau - Mother Play
Contenders
Whitney White - Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Anne Kauffman - Mary Jane
Lila Neugebauer - Uncle Vanya
Sam Gold - An Enemy of the People
Direction of a Musical
Noms
Alex Timbers - Here Lies Love
Maria Friedman - Merrily We Roll Along
Michael Greif & Schele Williams - The Notebook
Rebecca Frecknall - Cabaret
Michael Greif - Hell's Kitchen
Contenders
Michael Greif - Days of Wine and Roses
Jessica Stone - Water for Elephants
Danya Taymor - The Outsiders
Rachel Chavkin - Lempicka
Leigh Silverman - Suffs
Book of a Musical
Noms
Days of Wine and Roses
The Notebook
Water for Elephants
Suffs
Hell's Kitchen
Contenders
Here Lies Love
The Outsiders
Lempicka
Score
Noms
Here Lies Love
Days of Wine and Roses
The Notebook
Suffs
The Outsiders
Contenders
Water for Elephants
Lempicka
Hell's Kitchen (if eligible, which probably not)
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/21/20
Thanks for the category clarification, quizking101. I was wondering about that, but I must not have looked hard enough when I was researching potential nominees.
With that in mind, my revised acting categories:
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
I agree Featured Actress is probably Young's to lose. She's clearly loved by the voters and she gives an absolutely show-stealing performance. My rationale for including Liam Pearce as a nominee (apart from just being stubborn over liking the show more than most on this board ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ) is that the representation is by a pretty wide margin the thing that has earned the show the most praise, and whether it closes early or not there will probably be pressure on Tony voters to recognize that in some way. (yes that's a little cynical and counter to the show's message, but that's the sort of thinking you run into when your hobby is predicting showbiz industry awards). Liam Pearce is the face of the show in many ways, has the biggest song, and gives a charismatic performance. I would even argue he could potentially be placed in Lead (where, as was mentioned, it's a weaker competition).
There will be more productions announced including Sterophonic and Dear England and The Great Gatsby which nobody is including in their nominations.
I think Gad and Rannels are in for best actor. As well as Maria Friedman for direction. No way shark or cottage get any nominations. Throwing Laura Bell Bundy in there is laughable. Who I love by the way and thought she was great. Here Lies Love is out. The outsiders, the Notebook, days of wine and roses, Suffs, lempicka are in. Hell’s Kitchen, Great gatsby, water for elephants could possibly get in.
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/18/10
I wonder will Cabaret sweep like it did at the Olivers?
I'd love to see Reg Rogers get a featured actor nomination. He's effortlessly spot-on throughout the show, and his delivery of "Folks, it's Funny Girl, Fiddler (with a hint of Teyve's dance), and Dolly combined" is just so damn perfect. I can't imagine anyone making Joe Josephson as interesting or as memorable as he does.
Broadway Legend Joined: 9/27/21
I think people are really underestimating Gutenberg and Josh and Andrew here, I have talked to a handful of nominators and voters who really loved the show and both of the guys, I don't know if they both get nominated but I think one of the two might slip in that last slot
And now that Sunset is absolutely not coming this season I think Gutenberg ends up in revival over Spamalot and The Wiz
Appropriate premiered over ten years ago, and had a significant Off-Broadway production, so really, it should be deemed a revival. I guess it's a bit of a gray area though, and it would be nice to see BJJ get a Tony Award.
Some of these other predictions are a bit wild though - i.e. Alfred Molina may be a three-time Tony nominee, but his role in Uncle Vanya is relatively thankless and no matter how good he is in it, a nomination for this role is unlikely. Same with Ato Blankson-Wood in Cabaret. The role of Cliff is the most boring of all the principals, and I can't imagine any actor getting nominated for a major award for playing it.
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