I'm going to zone in on some of these categories.
KevinKlawitter said: "On the verge of a new year and with the season more clearly defined, time for new wild speculation!
Best Play
- Appropriate
- Jaja's African Hairstyling
- Mother Play
- Prayerfor the French Republic
- The Shark is Broken
- (alt. Mary Jane,My Son’s a Queer (But What Can You Do?) )
**"The Shark Is Broken" has a very slim if any chance of making it in to the mix. This seems like a head to head between Appropriate and Prayer for the French Republic - both critical darlings with preceding reptuations.
Best Musical Revival
- Cabaret
- Gutenberg! The Musical!
- Merrily We Roll Along
- Spamalot
- The Who's Tommy
**Probably going to be Merrily's to lose, but I see "The Wiz" getting in over "Gutenberg", depending on how much they change on the road to Broadway and also recency bias.
Best Play Revival
- An Enemy of the People
- Doubt
- Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
- Uncle Vanya
**Hard to call, but unless any of these other productions is a true knockout or rides the wave of recency bias, I'd be hard pressed to not see Kenny Leon claim another winning Play Revival trophy.
Best Actor in a Musical
- Eddie Redmayne - Cabaret
- Brian d’Arcy James - Days of Wine and Roses
- Chip Zien - Harmony
- Jonathan Groff - Merrily We Roll Along
- Ali Louis Bourzgui - The Who's Tommy
- (alt. Josh Gad, Andrew Rannells - Gutenberg! The Musical!, Grant Gustin - Water for Elephants, Jeremy Jordan - The Great Gatsby)
**Gustin unseen, this whole category feels rather weak to me this year. I was not as knocked out by Zien and Groff as many were. I don't think Gad and Rannells will break in since they come as a matched set.
Best Actor in a Play
- Jeremy Strong - An Enemy of the People
- Liev Schrieber - Doubt
- Anthony Edwards - Prayerfor the French Republic
- Leslie Odom, Jr - Purlie Victorious: a Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
- Steve Carell - Uncle Vanya
- (alt. Ari Brand - Prayerfor the French Republic, Danny DeVito - I Need That,Rob Madge -My Son'saQueer (But What Can You Do?), Jim Parsons - Mother Play)
**I'm assuming everyone in Prayer for the French Republic is considered Featured until otherwise noted, so swap out Edwards for probably Madge unless they really want to stack the deck and add DeVito, or even expand the category.
Best Actress in a Play
- Sarah Paulson - Appropriate
- Brittany Adebumola - Jaja's African Hair Braiding
- Tyne Daly -Doubt
- Jessica Lange - Mother Play
- Betsy Aidem - Prayerfor the French Republic
- (alt. Rachel McAdams- Mary Jane, Francis Benhamou - Prayer for the French Republic, Maechi Aharanwa - Jaja's African Hair Braiding)
**Removing Jaja's cast from consideration since the Tony nominators ruled them all as featured. - https://www.broadwaynews.com/tony-awards-committee-issues-first-eligibility-rulings-for-2023-2024-season-2/ and also sticking with removing the French Republic cast for the same reason. You could actually add Laura Bell Bundy for The Cottage in the mix - since she seemed to be the standout of an otherwise middling show.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
- Brandon Victor Dixon - Hell's Kitchen
- Liam Pearce - How to Dance in Ohio
- Daniel Radcliffe - Merrily We Roll Along
- Dorian Harewood - The Notebook
- Taran Killiam- Spamalot
- (alt. Wayne Brady- The Wiz, Ryan Vasquez - The Notebook, John Cardoza - The Notebook, actors tbdfrom Cabaret, The Outsiders, Water For Elephants or Tommy)
**I would be shocked if HOW TO DANCE IN OHIO ended up in any major categories since I think it will be closed and long forgotten by awards season. I could see Kyle Ramar Freeman as The Lion in THE WIZ sneaking in, since there is precedent for that role being a nominee (and winner). You also have an embarassment of riches in the SPAMALOT cast and also Ato-Blankson Wood and Steven Skybell for CABARET
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
- Bebe Neuwirth - Cabaret
- Shoshana Bean - Hell's Kitchen
- Lindsay Mendez - Merrily We Roll Along
- Maryanne Plunkett - The Notebook
- Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer - Spamalot
- (alt. Deborah Cox - The Wiz, Melody Betts - The Wiz, cast tbh from The Notebook or Tommy)
**Seems about right. No notes.
Best Featured Actor in a Play
- Michael Imperioli - An Enemy of the People
- Richard Maysur - Prayer for the French Republic
- Alex Brightman - The Shark is Broken
- Alfred Molina - Uncle Vanya
- Jay O. Sanders- Purlie Victorious: a Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
- (alt. William Jackson Harper - Uncle Vanya, Ian Shaw - The Shark is Broken)
**Move the French Republic actors down here for contention, and switch out Jay O. Sanders for Billy Eugene Jones (although I'd be delighted if both made it in).
Best Featured Actress in a Play
- Zoe Kazan - Doubt
- Rachel Christopher - Jaja's African Hair Braiding
- Celia Keenan-Bolger - Mother Play
- Kara Young - Purlie Victorious: a Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
- Alison Pill - Uncle Vanya
- (alt. Anika Noni Rose - Uncle Vanya,Quincy Tyler Bernstine- Doubt, Rachel Christopher - Jaja's African Hair Braiding)
**Move the Jaja ladies down to this category, but I think Kara Young may actually be the one to beat here. She will become the first African-American actress to earn three consecutive Tony nominations in three years and she's overdue for a win. It would be history making AND well deserved.
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