Hey folks! I figured it could be helpful to have some confirmed/expected placement lists (for musicals) in one place on this thread!
ELIGIBLE FOR BEST MUSICAL (open by 04/25/24)
5 NOMINEES (possibly 6 or 7, if tied)
- Back to the Future
- Days of Wine and Roses
- Harmony
- Hell's Kitchen
- Here Lies Love
- How to Dance in Ohio
- Lempicka
- Once Upon a One More Time
- Suffs
- The Great Gatsby
- The Heart of Rock and Roll
- The Notebook
- The Outsiders
- Water for Elephants
ELIGIBLE FOR BEST REVIVAL (MUSICAL) (open by 04/25/24)
4 NOMINEES (possibly 5 or 6, if tied)
- Cabaret
- Gutenberg!
- Merrily We Roll Along
- Monty Python's Spamalot
- The Who's Tommy
- The Wiz
ELIGIBLE FOR LEADING ACTOR (MUSICAL) -- 5 NOMINEES (possibly 6 or 7, if tied)
Confirmed (as of 11/30/23)
- Josh Gad, Gutenberg!
- Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
- Justin Guarini, Once Upon a One More Time
- Casey Likes, Back to the Future
- Andrew Rannells, Gutenberg!
Expected, pending Tonys Admin Comm. Confirmation
- Corey Cott, The Heart of Rock and Roll
- Brian D'Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
- Grant Gustin, Water for Elephants
- James Monroe Iglehart, Monty Python's Spamalot
- Jeremy Jordan, The Great Gatsby
- Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret
Questions
- Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Who's Tommy -- This seems like a leading role to me, but Michael Cerveris was nominated in Featured Actor for playing the same role in 1993. Bourzgui is likely to be billed below the title, so it's up to producers where they think he'd have the best chance at a nomination and/or win.
- The Notebook -- I don't know the show well enough to say if maybe Ryan Vasquez, Dorian Harewood, or John Cardoza are petitioned for Lead or if they all stay in Featured, as they're likely to be billed below the title.
- The Outsiders -- I don't know the show well enough to predict, but I'm familiar with the novel and film...seems like there's a case for keeping all the boys in Featured or moving Brody Grant to Lead. Could go either way.
- How to Dance in Ohio -- I'd say this is a true ensemble piece, but I could see a case for petitioning Caesar Samayoa and/or Liam Pearce to Lead in an unlikely bet to get a nomination in this category.
ELIGIBLE FOR LEADING ACTRESS (MUSICAL) -- 5 NOMINEES (possibly 6 or 7, if tied)
Confirmed (as of 11/30/23)
- Briga Heelan, Once Upon a One More Time
- Arielle Jacobs, Here Lies Love
Expected, pending Tonys Admin Comm. Confirmation
- Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
- McKenzie Kurtz, The Heart of Rock and Roll
- Nichelle Lewis, The Wiz
- Isabelle McCalla, Water for Elephants
- Maleah Joi Moon, Hell's Kitchen
- Eva Noblezada, The Great Gatsby
- Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
- Gayle Rankin, Cabaret
Questions
- The Notebook -- Again, hard to say if Joy Woods, Maryann Plunkett, or Jordan Tyson move to Lead...from what I've heard about the show, the strongest case for Lead Actress here is Joy Woods.
- Suffs -- I don't know the show super well, but from what I gather, it is mostly an ensemble piece. I did notice that Alice Paul (Shaina Taub's role) has a standby, so perhaps that could be significant. Folks who were familiar with it off-Broadway could shed some light on this.
Hope it's helpful to see it in this way! Also, the competition will be FIERCE for these...good luck to us all...