Other than the que sera sera (Othello and its ilk) shows, it seems to me most of the "analysis" posted in this thread relate to statistically insignificant observations. We are, as noted, at or close to the nadir of the season, but many of the numbers referenced are either among those that never are useful tools because they are abstract (grosses as such, % capacity, and so on), or meaningless because they are viewed without any context. Thus, as an example, no effort is made to distinguish the magnitude of revenue drops (for instance, Wicked's at 7.5% with a solid price per ticket and a sellout, vs Six at 4 times as high, with a weak price and lousy attendance). [The same sorts of statistical differentiation makes a large number of the shows predictively meaningless. Digging down is fun for more than building sand castles. :-)