Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 7/22/18- Page 3

[CPannullo]

Posted: 7/24/18 at 7:36pm

I’m gonna predict a Once On This Island closing in January followed by a spring transfer of Hadestown to Circle In The Square

[Rainah]

Posted: 7/24/18 at 8:42pm

CPannullo said: "I’m gonna predict a Once On This Island closing in January followed by a spring transfer of Hadestown to Circle In The Square"

I know as of last winter Hadestown did not want Circle in the Square and were keen to keep the proscenium staging. Source was a friends roommate who worked on the show in a capacity that makes me trust the info. Now, that was six months ago when they were still looking to transfer this fall, now they're doing a tryout in london and looking at the spring, so the info may no longer be accurate. But I think at least that they'll keep the proscenium staging and look for a smallish venue

[Sarah329]

Posted: 7/24/18 at 8:59pm

I thought OOTI was doing well? Their seats are actually not that cheap. It’s also a smaller theatre so idk if that affects the amount it’s making.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 7/24/18 at 9:13pm

Yeah, if OOTI can sustain this number/% of gross, they can survive a little longer.

Labor Day for a closing? Don't think so.

[Rainah]

Posted: 7/24/18 at 9:29pm

they're not doing awful, but CITS is a hard theatre to make the financials work. The tickets are expensive but an average ticket price of $105 says that MOST of the tickets they're selling are discounted in some way. The lowest priced ticket I'm seeing is $89, and there's not many of those. most are the $159 ones. Therefore, the majority of people seeing the show are not paying face value for the tickets. 

Some shows/theatres can make that work more than others, but CITS is small enough that each seat counts. 70% of gross potential is not awful, as I've said, but OOTI isn't a cheap show either. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/24/18 at 10:03pm

At the current pace, OOTI is sustaining at the rate of contributing around $10k to paying down what must be a fairly substantial deficit.

[MannPhan24601]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 10:04am

When I was at the Hirschfield on Sunday, I was thinking it would be wayy to small for Moulin Rogue from the pictures I've seen of the Boston production. Guess they want it to be like a BOM?

[Rainah]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 10:33am

HogansHero said: "At the current pace, OOTI is sustaining at the rate of contributing around $10k to paying down what must be a fairly substantial deficit."

Exactly. Not awful by any means, but people are worrying what will happen once summer ends.

I think it's very clear that OOTI is not going to recoup their investment, barring a miracle. This may be the best hope for the show; people are employed, the show is being shared with a close to full audience every night, they won some well-deserved awards, they're in the black on week to week costs, and there's a small drop in the bucket of their debt.

That's a lot of wins. I think the definition of a successful show shouldn't be limited to recoupment, if it was we'd be leaving a whole lot of incredible shows out of the conversation. Broadway's a risky business and most of 'em lose money.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 11:02am

to the list of "wins," you can add the 6 or more separate line items paying the lead producer money each and every week. [which explains a lot]

you can, of course, propose a new definition of success, but the existing one has been around a long time and has the benefit of being objectively determinable. Every other definition I can think of requires a judgment call, and not everyone (maybe not even a majority) is likely to ever agree, especially considering that folks come to the question from different perspectives. When you invest a million dollars in a show and get nothing back, as is likely the case here, keeping people employed sounds a lot like an act of charity rather than the foundation of a success. 

[springwillcome]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 11:21am

ACL2006 said: "The Hudson and Sondheim will (likely) be open for the Spring. CRAZY FOR YOU in the Sondheim? JAGGED LITTLE PILL to the Cort? HADESTOWN to the Hudson? AIN'T TOO PROUD to the Marquis?"

A lot of my friends have expressed that they think JLP would do really well in the Booth and are hoping for that (no idea what the show is pulling for, though, I'm just hoping it transfers!)

 

[Rainah]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 12:49pm

Broadway's a crap investment in general. The vast majority of shows do not recoup. Now, recoupment is certainly a goal, financials are important, absolutely. But if 'will I make money on this show' was the sole consideration, there would be precious little investment.

People invest for all kinds of reasons, everything from a show being a passion project, to ancillary benefits, to thinking that this one in particularly will be that longrunning it. I'm not proposing a new definition of success, I'm saying that recoupment cannot be the sole measure of value because it is clear that it is not the sole factor driving the production of shows.

Now I think recoupment is still a useful measure for a whole lot of things (Everything from an individual show's commercial success to the financial health of broadway as a whole) don't get me wrong. But I don't think there's anything wrong with looking at what the show did accomplish, and the successes they are having, because to me it's clear that those things matter to everyone as well.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 2:06pm

well, "success" is a term of art and so you are trying to change its meaning. I prefer the term you substituted in the 2nd paragraph-"value." I completely agree recoupment is not the sole measure of value. 

Regarding investors, my experience is that most are investing in a show because they believe in it (or have been sold on it by someone who does). Yes, there are occasional passion projects, and occasional "should be seen" projects, a few who occasionally invest "for the party" or to gain some access to another investment, but while remaining aware of the risk, most investors seem to be looking forward to the reward. 

[AEA AGMA SM]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 2:40pm

HogansHero said: "well, "success" is a term of art and so you are trying to change its meaning. I prefer the term you substituted in the 2nd paragraph-"value." I completely agree recoupment is not the sole measure of value.

Regarding investors, my experience is that most are investing in a show because they believe in it (or have been sold on it by someone who does). Yes, there are occasional passion projects, and occasional "should be seen" projects, a few who occasionally invest "for the party" or to gain some access to another investment, but while remaining aware of the risk, most investors seem to be looking forward to the reward."

There are also some investors putting money into the show as part of a long-term plan. One example would be investing in some risky shows to build relationships with lead producers and get the chance to invest in something that has much better prospects. For example, there were very few, if any, first-time investors who were even given the chance to see the offering papers for Hamilton, let alone be able to get any stake in it.

[kdogg36]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 2:47pm

HogansHero said: "well, "success" is a term of art and so you are trying to change its meaning."

Genuine question: I know that "hit" is a term of art, but is "success" really one? For instance, I know that Sweeney Todd wasn't a hit before the last Broadway revival, but is it really wrong to say that it was a successful show (in some sense of the word) despite that?

[South Florida]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 3:00pm

Hope you guys and gals see Carousel before it closes.  It was beautiful.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 4:20pm

@ AEA AGMA SM "There are also some investors putting money into the show as part of a long-term plan. One example would be investing in some risky shows to build relationships with lead producers and get the chance to invest in something that has much better prospects. For example, there were very few, if any, first-time investors who were even given the chance to see the offering papers forHamilton, let alone be able to get any stake in it."

Absolutely. That's what I was referring to when I said "to gain some access to another investment."

@kdogg36 To me they are both terms of art and are synonymous. A publicist's license, of course, permits them to use the terms in a way that their clients wouldn't.

[20806]

Posted: 7/25/18 at 4:42pm

I don’t know that I would have been jumping out of my seat to invest in Hamilton at the beginning. I liked the music from the first tim I heard it but was the commercial potential always obvious?

[binau]

Posted: 7/26/18 at 2:48am

20806 said: "I don’t know that I would have been jumping out of my seat to invest in Hamilton at the beginning. I liked the music from the first tim I heard it but was the commercial potential always obvious?"

Maybe not before it was mounted off-broadway but by the end of the off-broadway run it did seem to become clear that there were commercial prospects. 

[busylizzie238]

Posted: 8/27/18 at 1:53pm

dramamama611 said: "The prognosis isnt good, lizzie. It MIGHT make it to January, but, sadly, an August closing would not shock me.

Another thing to keep in mind: theater (and hotels) get much more expensive from Thanksgiving to New Years, and much harder to find discounts.

I hope you get to see it, it's really special .
"

Just a quick update on my last post, I've bought tickets to New York and my travel authorisation thing got approved today!!! Sorry to post here but I have no one else to gush too This is possibly one of the most spontaneous things I've ever done but after all the warnings about Once On This Island closing soon, I'd be an idiot if I didn't try see it whilst it's still open. I was in a production of it while I was young, fell in love the with the cast recording, could go on about it forever. Anyways I'll be there from 29th Sept - 3rd Oct so just need to sit tight and let's hope they don't post a closing notice before then! haha thanks for your advice everyone - I really appreciate it  I'll also try and see Band's Visit perhaps and Dear Evan Hansen and enter lots of lotteries too.