Yankee - I don't think there is a single performance on Broadway that is of the calibar or Christine Ebersole in GREY GARDENS. Raul is DEFINITELY not on that level. Despite GG opening 8 months ago, Ebersole's performance is STILL talked about and STILL draws audiences.
In COMPANY, while Raul is a draw, surely not because of a strong buzz. I'd imagine because of his fanbase. And then people go to see the show because of it's name and being a Sondheim. On my last trip I stood outside the TKTS line for an hour waiting for my mother to meet me. I kept hearing people refer to GREY GARDENS as "that Christine Ebersole show."
Can you name anyone who is truly giving Ebersole high-end competition? No name I can think of at the top of my head.
Has LOVEMUSIK had any pre-Broadway engagements? If not, how can we be SO sure Cerveris is a nominee? Because the season is already jam-packed with potential Leading Actor in the Musical nominees, I wouldn't count in anyone from LOVEMUSIK or LEGALLY BLONDE until the shows open for previews.
Look at all these leading actors!! All of these were only the ones from the top of my head, I am sure I am missing some. I can't choose a sure winner, let alone a sure list of nominees!!
Michael Arden (THE TIMES THEY ARE A CHANGIN')
Christian Borle (LEGALLY BLONDE)
Michael Cerveris (LOVEMUSIK)
Will Chase (HIGH FIDELITY)
Raul Esparza (COMPANY)
Hadley Fraser (THE PIRATE QUEEN)
Alexander Gemignani (LES MISERABLES)
Jonathan Groff (SPRING AWAKENING)
Brian D'arcy James (THE APPLE TREE)
Steve Kazee (110 IN THE SHADE)
Gavin Lee (MARY POPPINS)
David Hyde Pierce (CURTAINS)
Martin Short (MARTIN SHORT: FAME BECOMES ME)
And I'm not sure on the eligibility of Matt Cavenagh (GREY GARDENS); Norm Lewis (LES MISERABLES); and Patrick Page (DR. SEUSS' HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS).
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle