Im really surprised noone has mentioned Michael Cerveris for LoveMusik. Many feel he was slided at last years tonys and he could just walk away with the sympathy vote.
I wasn't really into theatre three years ago (the 2003-2004 season), so what I'm saying may be completely wrong, but if I'm not mistaken, wasn't the Featured Actor in a Musical award a close race between Cerveris and Esparza? And, as we all know, Cerveris won the award. In my opinion, it could be that Cerveris gets some sympathy votes, but his chances at winning would be much stronger if Raul were not in Company this season. I think that having the two of them nominated in the same category again only a few years later would hurt Cerveris' chances at winning again, since his main competitor a few years ago is the frontrunner for the Tony.
That being said, I am a huge fan of both actors. I personally think that Cerveris should have won last year for Sweeney, but this year I believe that Esparza should win. His performance of Being Alive brought me to tears. And while I would consider myself an emotional person, for some odd reason I do not cry in public. Except for when I saw Company.
Hadley Fraser? The Playbill says he's appearing with permission from Equity; I thought that meant that he's not a member but an exception was made, but if being in a Broadway show gives you automatic membership does that just mean he's appearing in an Equity show even though he didn't go through the point system and stuff?
luvtheEmcee - I asked COULD HE win, not WILL HE win. I know not to ask if someone WILL win, thank you.
"I'm tellin' you, the only times I really feel the presence of God are when I'm having sex and during a great Broadway musical." - Nathan Lane - Jeffrey
Yankee - I don't think there is a single performance on Broadway that is of the calibar or Christine Ebersole in GREY GARDENS. Raul is DEFINITELY not on that level. Despite GG opening 8 months ago, Ebersole's performance is STILL talked about and STILL draws audiences.
In COMPANY, while Raul is a draw, surely not because of a strong buzz. I'd imagine because of his fanbase. And then people go to see the show because of it's name and being a Sondheim. On my last trip I stood outside the TKTS line for an hour waiting for my mother to meet me. I kept hearing people refer to GREY GARDENS as "that Christine Ebersole show."
Can you name anyone who is truly giving Ebersole high-end competition? No name I can think of at the top of my head.
Has LOVEMUSIK had any pre-Broadway engagements? If not, how can we be SO sure Cerveris is a nominee? Because the season is already jam-packed with potential Leading Actor in the Musical nominees, I wouldn't count in anyone from LOVEMUSIK or LEGALLY BLONDE until the shows open for previews.
Look at all these leading actors!! All of these were only the ones from the top of my head, I am sure I am missing some. I can't choose a sure winner, let alone a sure list of nominees!!
Michael Arden (THE TIMES THEY ARE A CHANGIN') Christian Borle (LEGALLY BLONDE) Michael Cerveris (LOVEMUSIK) Will Chase (HIGH FIDELITY) Raul Esparza (COMPANY) Hadley Fraser (THE PIRATE QUEEN) Alexander Gemignani (LES MISERABLES) Jonathan Groff (SPRING AWAKENING) Brian D'arcy James (THE APPLE TREE) Steve Kazee (110 IN THE SHADE) Gavin Lee (MARY POPPINS) David Hyde Pierce (CURTAINS) Martin Short (MARTIN SHORT: FAME BECOMES ME)
And I'm not sure on the eligibility of Matt Cavenagh (GREY GARDENS); Norm Lewis (LES MISERABLES); and Patrick Page (DR. SEUSS' HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS).
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle
Amen on Christine E.! She'd better win. I think Audra McDonald and Donna Murphy as well as Kristin Chenoweth will have something to say about 'serious' competition, though. But, gawd, she deserves that award. She's still giving a nuanced yet passionate performance. I see something new each time I see that show. (A different element or song pops out at me.)
"A birdcage I plan to hang. I'll get to that someday. A birdcage for a bird who flew away...Around the world."
"Life is a cabaret old chum, only a cabaret old chum, and I love a cabaret!"-RIP Natasha Richardson-I was honored to have witnessed her performance as Sally Bowles.
In COMPANY, while Raul is a draw, surely not because of a strong buzz. I'd imagine because of his fanbase. And then people go to see the show because of it's name and being a Sondheim.
I think there's a misconception that Esparza's fanbase is much bigger than it really is. His performance got great notices almost across the board, but I really don't think he has a fanbase big enough to account for the majority of the draw to the show. I think the draw is mostly because it's a Sondheim show, to be honest. I also think that Ebersole has been much longer-established whereas while people have known about Raul and considered him a very versatile talent for quite some time, a lot of people will consider this his breakout, capable of knocking his status up to that level. Raul doesn't match her status in that sense, but I think in terms of quality of performance, he certainly does.
I think the funniest thing is that David Hyde Pierce, himself, would side with the Raul supporters. To quote him from a Playbill.com interview, "Well, I've had the privilege of seeing Raúl [Esparza] in Company, so I'm able to put away my thoughts about any Tony Award because I thought he was so amazing in that role."
Emcee - took the words outta my mouth but articulated them better. My wording may have made it seem like I meant Esparza had a huge fanbase - but I would compare his fanbase to that of John Tartaglia (pre his Disney show). It was enough of a draw to the BO to have a percentage, even if it was only 10%.
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle
Remember there are politics and other things going on for the TONY race. Sentiment, past performances and an actor's status in the community all play a part. After JLY won last year and made a fool of himself on the Award's show, he pretty much became a laughing stock in the community (watch the jokes about him in GYPSY OF THE YEAR) Of course a lot of it is also jealousy. Before handing anyone the award, let's at least see Cervaris. And for those who haven't, Fraser and Pierce.
Won't it be a Hoot if Arden is included? (well a fan can dream.)
Sometimes my friends tease me and say that I am his fanbase. That's obviously an exaggeration in itself, but there's a point to behold in that while his fans certainly help, he certainly hasn't one comparable to, say like... Idina or someone who even if not a huge household name, when stuck in a show, you can rely on legions of loyal fans to substantially impact sales.
I really respect DHP for saying that; I don't think it's a comment many would make. A lot of actors would assume they should win!
Arden will have his day; he's so young yet, but he's so wonderfully talented.
Edited for the worst sentence construction ever. Changed to better-yet-still-poor sentence construction.
Just to clarify, anyone performing in a Broadway show is both a member of Equity AND Tony-eligible -- whether they will actually win or even be nominated is another issue entirely. If you are cast in a Broadway show, you are officially invited to join Equity and must pay the dues etc.... prior to the show opening, even if you have no points or credits of any kind or you've never set foot on a professional stage in your life (I'm sure several of the kids in SPRING AWAKENING just got their Equity cards right before the show opened at The Atlantic -- since that's an Equity house, they would have HAD to).
Hadey Fraser is probably part of the Equity exchange program (which would explain the program note about appearing at the "permission" of AEA). He's probably a member of British Equity and the program allows a certain number of their members to appear here, while a certain number of US actors get to appear over there. It's no big deal. Lots of non-Americans have been nominated for (and won) Tonys in the past.
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie
[http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/]
"The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney
Curtain- How did Young make a fool of himself and become the laughing stock of the community at the TONYs? I've never heard that.
My pick is for Michael Cerveris, but you all knew that already.
"I wouldn't let Esparza's Bobby take my kids to the zoo...I'd be afraid he'd steal their ice cream and laugh."- YankeeFan
"People who like Sondheim enjoy cruelty."-LuvtheEmcee
Hook - Esparza got reviews on par with Ebersole. John Simon, the notorious Methusela in the world of theater criticism, a man who has seen everything from the past hundred years, called Esparza the best Bobby he's ever seen.
He and Ebersole got universally excellent reviews. Will Esparza go down in the textbooks like Ebersole? Of course not, but still...
John Simon, if I recall correctly, also pretty much disliked the show and the quote about Esparza's Bobby out-of-context was much more flattering than it was in context. It had some kind of negative qualifier to it, and wasn't what it seems when it's plucked out for marketing.
ETA -- nevermind, other than him not liking the show on the whole, I didn't recall correctly. I must have been thinking of something else. Simon's commentary on Esparza was very flattering. His review stuck out in my mind because he was one of the few to mention Raúl's (bi?)sexuality in the review. I'm not one for deleting posts to avoid admitting I was wrong, but you all have permission to ignore it.
Yankee - despite his reviews, he is by no means a frontrunner IMHO. Ebersole is a frontrunner. Esparza - not so much.
My predictions right now:
Raul Esparza (COMPANY)* Hadley Fraser (THE PIRATE QUEEN) Alexander Gemignani (LES MISERABLES) Jonathan Groff (SPRING AWAKENING)* David Hyde Pierce (CURTAINS)*
alternate: Martin Short (MARTIN SHORT: FAME BECOMES ME) *lock for a nomination.
As for the three other musicals yet to open, we'll see how they shake things up.
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle
While I do think it's fair to say that Ebersole is much more definite for the win than Esparza is, I have to say something a little bit blasphemous. Given what I think of Esparza, this is by no means whatsoever a slam to Ebersole's performance because I thought she was divine, but I really don't think that she is all that much better than he is... if at all. I thought she was wonderfully brilliant and her performance was moving, but I just don't. I'm sorry. If she's more of a front-runner than he is, I don't think it's because of quality of performance, but because of all of the "extras" that you can factor in. It is much easier to stand out playing a kooky, zany character than it is playing a normal guy, a character full of quiet subtlty, and as brilliant an actress as she is, I think that plays a big part in her notices because she is perfectly capturing this woman who has fascinated people for decades. She has also had a longer career and she's much better known than Esparza is.
I've also heard the opinion that in order to recognize the brilliance in Esparza's performance, you have to know his work in order to appreciate what he's doing as Bobby because the calm and quiet is such a radical change from the explosive, impassioned nature of the majority of his work -- which can be a little bit dangerous, I think. I disagree with that opinion, though I'm certainly not the best judge, but it's a bad thing if prior knowledge is needed in order to recognize brilliance. More people may feel that way, which will also play a part if they do.
Jonathan Groff as a lock? No way. He'll be lucky to see a nomination. He's very talented and will probably go quite far, but there's no way he's on par with those other men. That's just not realistic, IMO.
My prediction are "will be" and not "should be," BTW. If we're talking SHOULD, then I would not include Martin Short nor David Hyde Pierce. They are both hilarious, but I don't think as good of an acting performance as Esparza, Groff, Fraser, Gemignani, or Lee.
If I had to choose between Short and DHP - DHP all the way!
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle
As far as Groff goes, I feel like that could be the case if this were a year in which the lead actor category weren't quite so packed. I suppose he could slip in there, but I'd be surprised -- nor do I think he's deserving. I think any attractive young actor who can sing would be just as good as he is. It's a fairly unsubstantial, underdeveloped role, IMO.
I'm leaving in like half an hour to see Curtains. Yay!