It indeed is starting to feel like momentum is with Audra. I already felt that way after the Patti mess this week, but now even more so.
Nicole doesn't have zero chance, but now it would be a big surprise. Jasmine an even bigger surprise, though. Huge upset. Only thing close might be 2003 with Idina, but that wasn't her first nomination and she was in a huge hit, the favorite to win Musical even.
Of course, very curious to see what Paulson has to say later this week.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/26/19
Has Drama Desk always been this chaotic? Never followed it closely. 3 winners in the same category seems unserious.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/26/16
Someone with more expertise on whether these awards have any predictive value can enlighten me. I have had the impression that these awards aren’t terribly reliable (especially because some shows or performers aren’t eligible) but that’s not my area of expertise and I am too lazy to research it now.
Here’s my bit of uninformed speculation that might be completely wrong: Everyone has been assuming that - in such a deep season with a variety of good shows - that no single musical would dominate.
But what if that’s wrong? What if Maybe Happy Ending sweeps most or all of the major awards? Not just Best Musical, but Book, Score and Best Actor? And even Best Direction, despite the Jamie Lloyd hype? Even if many Tony voters want to spread the wealth, it is difficult for hundreds of people to work that out.
Is there some sort of consensus emerging that one of the other musicals has the best score or book? I have read a wide variety of opinions, but those opinions include Maybe Happy Ending.
Best direction may depend on voters’ impression of Lloyd’s work, because Michael Arden’s direction of MHE is arguably the strongest element of the whole musical.
Once again, I don’t really know what I am talking about. I don’t know any Tony voters. I’m just tossing out a possibility that occurred to me, not really because of the Drama Desk awards.
Broadway Star Joined: 3/14/13
bjh2114 said: "CoffeeBreak said: "The other awards members overlap. Critics etc."
But MANY of the voting members for all 3 of these voting bodies are ALSO Tony voters."
Actually, this is very false. Voters for any of the awards do not overlap with the Tonys. You're just making things up now.
djoko84 said: "bjh2114 said: "CoffeeBreak said: "The other awards members overlap. Critics etc."
But MANY of the voting members for all 3 of these voting bodies are ALSO Tony voters."
Actually, this is very false. Voters for any of the awards do not overlap with the Tonys. You're just making things up now."
I did t write that .
djoko84 said: "bjh2114 said: "CoffeeBreak said: "The other awards members overlap. Critics etc."
But MANY of the voting members for all 3 of these voting bodies are ALSO Tony voters."
Actually, this is very false. Voters for any of the awards do not overlap with the Tonys. You're just making things up now."
Perhaps you'd like to tell people like Helen Shaw and Adam Feldman that. They might be surprised to learn that their Tony voter status has been revoked...
bear88 said: "Here’s my bit of uninformed speculation that might be completely wrong: Everyone has been assuming that - in such a deep season with a variety of good shows - that no single musical would dominate.
But what if that’s wrong? What ifMaybe Happy Endingsweeps most or all of the major awards? Not just Best Musical, but Book, Score and Best Actor? And even Best Direction, despite the Jamie Lloyd hype? Even if many Tony voters want to spread the wealth, it is difficult for hundreds of people to work that out.
Is there some sort of consensus emerging that one of the other musicals has the best score or book? I have read a wide variety of opinions, but those opinions includeMaybe Happy Ending.
Best direction may depend on voters’ impression of Lloyd’s work, because Michael Arden’s direction ofMHEis arguably the strongest element of the whole musical."
At this point, Maybe Happy Ending is the favorite for Musical, Score, Book, Director, Actor, and likely Scenic Design. That wouldn't be the effect of a "sweep" though. It's actually expected to win those awards. If it picks up a few others (lighting design, sound design), maybe we could talk about it being the effect of a sweep. As for Director, people seem to be so focused on the Jamie Lloyd of it all, but for some reason the population on this board doesn't seem to understand that Sunset has been a very divisive production. Maybe Happy Ending has been much more universally beloved in the community. Could Jamie Lloyd win? Sure. But I fully expect Arden to walk away with it at this point.
As someone who loved Sunset, I don't think Lloyd really told the story, so therefore, I don't think it's great direction. If you didn't know the story going in, I don't think you'd understand the nuances of the story. As a vehicle for Nicole? Sure. It's a smash. She's wonderful.
Maybe Happy Endings was just a 10/10 from curtain up to curtain down. It's new, interesting, and the direction amplifies the story.
Broadway Star Joined: 10/6/18
“As for Director, people seem to be so focused on the Jamie Lloyd of it all, but for some reason the population on this board doesn't seem to understand that Sunset has been a very divisive production. Maybe Happy Ending has been much more universally beloved in the community. Could Jamie Lloyd win? Sure. But I fully expect Arden to walk away with it at this point."
THIS! I’m surprised how many people here are assuming Lloyd is the frontrunner/winner for director considering the divisiveness.
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/24/14
I was with the Lloyd train till recently, if they really love MHE, then Arden winning feels right. But I can see a world where Sunset takes 4 awards too. Let's see and wait for what NYT says.
Chorus Member Joined: 3/17/09
bjh2114 said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "And as we just saw, OH, MARY!, DEAD OUTLAW, and BUENA VISTA all weren’t eligible for this year’s Drama Desks."
Yah I expect Buena Vista to win a few of these (choreography perhaps, sound design perhaps, orchestrations almost certainly), but Boop's biggest competitors in the other two categories have been nominated alongside of it at every turn this season. At this point, I do expect it to win for costumes, and I'm still not sold that a Jasmine win is out of the question. To be honest, I think Nicole has a lot of VERY LOUD fans, but I've also heard a lot of people say they really did not enjoy her performance outside of her two big songs. Her performance may be the most divisive among the trio of performers who could realistically win the Tony. I think that works against her. I still think it's probably Audra's to lose at this point, but a Jasmine win would not surprise me in the slightest."
To be fair, ONE big song has been proven to be enough to score a Tony win (off the top of my head, see Alex Newell, Joaquina, Patti in Company, and soon to be Tony winner Jak Malone).
Honestly though, history has shown that these smaller awards have never really been a “precursor” or indicator of how the Tonys will shake out.
abcd12 said: "To be fair, ONE big song has been proven to be enough to score a Tony win (off the top of my head, see Alex Newell, Joaquina, Patti in Company,and soon to be Tony winner Jak Malone).
Honestly though, history has shown that these smaller awards have never really been a “precursor” or indicator of how theTonys will shake out."
If you think Patti won for Company because of "one big song", I have a bridge to sell you. Patti was going to win that award no matter what, not because she sang The Ladies Who Lunch. And while I agree that Alex and Joaquina had big showstopping numbers, I wouldn't say those are the reasons they won. For the most part, people really enjoyed their performances as a whole. But even if they did win for their big solo numbers, they benefitted from those being NEW songs in roles they originated. Nobody had ever heard those songs sun by anyone else before. Nicole sounds great on With One Look and As If We Never Said Goodbye, but there have also been a million renditions of those songs over the years. So sounding good on those songs while delivering what's otherwise a divisive interpretation might not be enough to push her over the edge.
Also, as a side note, while Dear Bill is an incredible song, I think anyone watering down Jak's potential win to that one song is doing him a disservice. His embodiment of Hester in the book scenes is also exquisite, and he is a laugh riot as Spilsbury. Does Dear Bill help his chances? Absolutely. But his performance is much better than people are giving him credit for.
Broadway Star Joined: 3/14/13
bjh2114 said: "djoko84 said: "bjh2114 said: "CoffeeBreak said: "The other awards members overlap. Critics etc."
But MANY of the voting members for all 3 of these voting bodies are ALSO Tony voters."
Actually, this is very false. Voters for any of the awards do not overlap with the Tonys. You're just making things up now."
Perhaps you'd like to tell people like Helen Shaw and Adam Feldman that. They might be surprised to learn that their Tony voter status has been revoked..."
Only 20 members of the NY Drama Critics Circle were given their voting rights back. No other critics organizations were. I wouldn't call that MANY of the same voters.
djoko84 said: "Only 20 members of the NY Drama Critics Circle were given their voting rights back. No other critics organizations were. I wouldn't call that MANY of the same voters."
That's fair. Perhaps my capitalization of "many" was too extreme. But the point still stands that it's certainly more than the overlap between the other voting bodies whose awards have already been presented.
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