Lead Actress in a Musical 2026

Possible Options

1. ~ Christine Sherrill, Mamma Mia as Donna Sheridan
2. ~ Jessica Vosk, Beaches as Cee Cee Bloom
3. ~ Caissie Levy, Ragtime as Mother
4. ~ Lea Michele, Chess as Florence Vassy
5. ~ Christiana Pitts, Two Strangers as Robin Rainey
6. ~ Kristin Chenoweth, The Queen of Versailles as Jackie Siegel
7. ~ Marla Mindelle, Titanique as Celine Dion
8. ~ Sara Chase, Schmigadoon, as Melissa Gimble
9. ~ Kelli Barrett, Beaches as Bertie White
10. ~ Stephanie Hsu, Rocky Horror Picture Show as Janet Weiss (could be supporting)
11. ~ Isabella Isler, Beetlejuice as Lydia Deetz (if eligible)
12. ~ Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys as Lucy Emerson (could be supporting)
13. ~ Amy Weaver, Mamma Mia as Sophie Sheridan (could be supporting)

.. Who do you think will be the Top 5 ?



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Updated On: 2/7/26 at 11:34 PM

Caissie Levy, Lea Michele, and Christiani Pitts feel like safe locks.

I would not rule out Chenoweth based on sheer lack of competition. The nominators like to reach back to fall shows sometimes.

Would both BEACHES ladies be in lead? If Vosk makes a meal out of crummy material she could get a nod.

I've got no sense of how TITANIQUE could do with nominators in that massive house. It could get 10 noms, it could be largely ignored (including MM).

Michele barely acted in this.



My money is on Levy.

Interested to see the Beaches ladies.

Levy sounds great but is no Marin Mazzie. That's not easy to forget.

Agree Michele could awards schmooze her way to the top.

Pitts and especially Tutty will get nominations. It has a strong trajectory towards spring.

Rocky Horror has the potential to steal a lot of thunder. And CATS: The Jellicle Ball will remind everyone what a best revival is come spring pouncing the competition. It's Bill Rauch's concept and direction FTW in revival.

Updated On: 2/7/26 at 12:51 AM

CoffeeBreak said: "Rocky Horror has the potential to steal a lot of thunder. And CATS: The Jellicle Ball will remind everyone what a best revival is come spring pouncing the competition. It's Bill Rauch's concept and direction FTW in revival."

Yeah. I’m firmly team CATS for revival. It definitely already has at least Featured Actor in a Musical locked up for Andre de Shields, and I can imagine that Costume Design will also be theirs.

I know I’m veering off topic here but I think RAGTIME is a noble revival, but it’s coasting on the idea that it “speaks to our times”, which doesn’t mean it will be the “best” revival. It’s very much like Sunset vs. Gypsy last year. Gypsy dared to take a new lens with unconventional casting, but Sunset turned the entire source material on its head and created magic.

Worth noting that people should not be looking at the precursor awards to gauge any potential RAGTIME success against CATS, since CATS was eligible for 2025 awards when it was down at Perelman PAC

binau said: "I agree with everything you say though I wonder if 'speaking to the times' especially with all the chaos over the last few months is exactly what will resonate with voters and buzz this year. It would emotionally feel like the theatre community expressing themselves.

That said, maybe the negative buzz around the staging and set of Ragtime (even from some fans of the revival and performances) will hurt its chances if "Cats" continues to excite the way it did off broadway."

In theory, CATS, with its overt queerness and representation of all races, sexual orientations, and gender identities, could also serve as a strong expression and rebuke of the current environment. I’m sure it’ll make a particular someone’s head roll that his favorite song, “Memory”, is now an anthem for a black trans woman who is reclaiming her space in a world that left her behind.

Rentaholic2 said: "I think Ragtime will get 5 acting noms for Levy and Henry (both winning) and Uranowitz, Ross, and Lewis. I could even see Colin Donnell sneaking in if supporting actor isn’t a strong category. Which makes me wonder if it’s possible they actually sweep the acting categories? Has that ever happened before? I don’t know offhand who else is competitive in the supporting categories though."

To this day, the original South Pacific is the only production in history to have won all four musical acting categories at the Tonys. I wonder if Hamilton could've pulled that off if Phillipa Soo wasn't up against Cynthia Erivo in The Color Purple.

"That said, I do think Cats will take revival for the reasons others have stated, unless it just doesn’t land with the same excitement that it did before. If it feels like they waited too long or something was lost in the move to Broadway, Ragtime’s “right time” argument may carry the day."

It should hopefully make for one interesting race. I think a key thing to look out for is if either or both productions gets nominated for directing. Lear DeBessonet did make the cut for her Into the Woods revival a couple years ago, so she's clearly respected by her peers. Although if she misses, that won't bode well for Ragtime in Best Revival. Similar to George C. Wolfe missing for Gypsy last year as well as Thomas Kail missing for Sweeney Todd in 2023.

I can also see a world where history repeats itself from 1998 where Ragtime comes up short of the big prize to an innovative musical production with a bunch of animals. But hey, other classic musicals such as West Side Story and Follies also have yet to win a Best Production award from the Tonys.

Although it'd also be interesting if Cats takes Revival yet Ragtime still takes both lead acting prizes. The last time we saw a scenario like that in the musical categories was way back in 1991 where Jonathan Pryce and Lea Salonga both won for Miss Saigon, yet Best Musical went to The Will Rogers Follies.

binau said: "What is wrong with you? This is not acceptable behaviour. If you disagree with the characterisation of who conceived the show you can challenge politely on this. The poster clearly is just a fan of the show, concept and direction yet you turn it into a vicious, juvenile attack."

No no. CoffeeBreak has a history of Black artistic slamming and erasure on these threads. Just because you permit them intentionally overlooking the Black co- director attached to Cats doesn’t mean I will. What’s wrong with YOU?

Updated On: 2/7/26 at 10:05 AM

God, what an anemic list. Sigh.

My money’s on Levy at this point.

Gypsy should have opened this season and then both Nicole and Audra would have got their Tonys!

Hell, if Boop opened this season I wonder if it could have stood a chance winning best actress AND musical.

CoffeeBreak said: "Ensemble1698878795 said: "CoffeeBreak said: "Interested to see the Beaches ladies.

Levy sounds great but is no Marin Mazzie. That's not easy to forget.

Agree Michele could awards schmooze her way to the top.

Pitts and especially Tutty will get nominations. It has a strong trajectory towards spring.
best.

If you really believe Bill Rouch came up with placing Cats in a POC Ballroom setting you’re as stupid as you sound. Bill was planning Cats in a different era, but the idea of Ballroom was based off an idea Zhailon presented after they met. This is documented.

Just because you try and erase Black contributions doesn’t mean I’ll let you. There would also be no revival of Cats without the POC bodies that make this version work. So no Bill doesn’t get all the praise. Take your white savior approach back to your President.

Ensemble1698878795 said: "binau said: "What is wrong with you? This is not acceptable behaviour. If you disagree with the characterisation of who conceived the show you can challenge politely on this. The poster clearly is just a fan of the show, concept and direction yet you turn it into a vicious, juvenile attack."

No no. CoffeeBreak has a history of Black artistic slamming and erasure on these threads. Just because you permit them intentionally overlooking the Black co- director attached to Cats doesn’t mean I will. What’s wrong with YOU?"

Binau is a racist MAGAt tho. He once defended Charlie Kirk for 96 hours straight and called everyone a terrorist who didn't agree. Don't engage.

Just because you try and erase Black contributions doesn’t mean I’ll let you. There would also be no revival of Cats without the POC bodies that make this version work. So no Bill doesn’t get all the praise. Take your white savior approach back to your President.