We’ve entered the post-nomination, pre-awards period where, in the absence of any actual developments happening, attempts to read the tea leaves and wild conjecture take hold, which tend to make some of these categories feel like more of a race than they likely are.
I will say though that DBH has been wisely putting out a lot of videos of its very charming and funny composing team talking about and singing their score. I think it’s clear that’s where the producers see an opening.
Broadway Legend Joined: 2/24/11
Jesse's predictions and preferences are all over the place. But I finally took myself to see Floyd Collins last night and Jeremy Jordan is extraordinary in every was possible (in a show I'm now sure I will never love). Criss IS the frontrunner, and is giving a lovely performance, but to compare what both actors are doing on their separate stages...there IS no comparison...
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/26/16
bjh2114 said: "bear88 said: "bjh2114, I don’t really have much.Sunset Blvd. is the clear favorite for Best Revival based on the nominations (nothing forGypsydirector George C. Wolfe). That gives Scherzinger an edge, and suggests that at least some actual Tony voters are buying what Jamie Lloyd is selling - and his main attraction is Scherzinger. Obviously, Audra McDonald could overcome all that because, well, she’s Audra."
But the nominating committee and the Tony voters are not the same body. I wouldn't take the number of nominations one production received over another as gospel. Sure, it's generally a decent indicator, but there have been plenty of times historically where the production receiving the most nominations has gone home with very few awards. In semi-recent memory,Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812 led with the most nominations in 2017 with 12 (Dear Evan Hansen had 9), and it walked away with 2 awards (Dear Evan Hansen got 6). In 2018, Mean Girls and SpongeBob tied with the most nominations at 12, and Mean Girls walked away with 0 awards and SpongeBob got 1. If we're talking about revivals, that same year Carousel got 11 nominations (winning 2) and My Fair Lady got 10 nominations (winning 1). Yet Once On This Island won Best Revival. In 2023, Some Like it Hot led with 13 nominations while Kimberly Akimbo got 8 (also Shucked had 9), and we all know how that turned out.
All of this is to say that sometimes the voters and the nominators don't have exactly the same taste. Yes there is often correlation, but I wouldn't read into it too much. Double this when it comes to the performers rather than production awards since there are more "personal feelings" involved there. This isn't to say that Nicole can't or won't win. I just think interpreting the number of nominations as "momentum" isn't a super accurate lens, especially when you factor in the "beloved member of the Broadway community" factor for Audra and the "where can I get that red hat" factor for Nicole. There are, in my opinion, too many variables to make a call in this race at the moment."
I am definitely not making a call, and no one should believe me if I were. To the extent I think Scherzinger has a slight edge, it’s less about the nomination count than about the clear impression I have that Sunset Blvd. Is the frontrunner for Best Revival (Jamie Lloyd nominated for Best Director, Wolfe not). I agree that one hard-to-guess intangible favors McDonald. She is a beloved Broadway veteran giving a historic starring turn in a classic. Scherzinger has the problem of her personal politics (liking the Kennedy post kind of gives it away) at a fraught time. I think her PR team has done a good job trying to get past that (even her song choice at Miscast felt deliberate) and it doesn’t seem like it’s a big topic. But I don’t know if it will be enough to work, especially when Audra is giving a performance that seems to surpass the production. Ben Brantley’s piece wasn’t about Gypsy; it was about Audra.
Score seems like a very fluid category, and I don’t blame the Death Becomes Her team for going for it. The Maybe Happy Ending score, which I was just listening to yesterday, is a solid, lyrics-driven candidate but it feels like a stronger book. Dead Outlaw has a fine score but I’m still not sure how voters will feel about it overall. Real Women Have Curves feels doomed due to its lack of major nominations. Operation Mincemeat has the best song but voters can honor that by picking Jak Malone.
A stipulation: I don’t really know what I’m talking about. It’s just fun to speculate in such an unpredictable year.
Definitely fun to speculate. That is all anyone is doing here. But regarding Brantley's piece; Look for other free things to come out for the other nominees.
Broadway Star Joined: 3/29/23
How Daniel Dae Kim Learned to 'Make Room' for Himself in Hollywood (Exclusive)
https://people.com/daniel-dae-kim-tony-awards-nomination-exclusive-11736191
Broadway Star Joined: 3/29/23
SmokeyLady said: "Definitely fun to speculate. That is all anyone is doing here. But regarding Brantley's piece; Look for other free things to come out for the other nominees."
Here's a freebie. The print NYT A&L today is the Tony Awards Preview with all the articles, pictures, and splashy ads. Only picture on the front page is a large Nicole.
Swing Joined: 8/19/22
MezzA101 said: "SmokeyLady said: "Definitely fun to speculate. That is all anyone is doing here. But regarding Brantley's piece; Look for other free things to come out for the other nominees."
Here's a freebie. The print NYT A&L today is the Tony Awards Preview with all the articles, pictures, and splashy ads. Only picture on the front page is a large Nicole.
"
Anyone willing to share photos? :)
Broadway Star Joined: 3/29/23
MB124 said: "MezzA101 said: "SmokeyLady said: "Definitely fun to speculate. That is all anyone is doing here. But regarding Brantley's piece; Look for other free things to come out for the other nominees."
Here's a freebie. The print NYT A&L today is the Tony Awards Preview with all the articles, pictures, and splashy ads. Only picture on the front page is a large Nicole.
"
Anyone willing to share photos? :)"
How do I attach a screenshot of the front page of the A&L?
Just take a look at Sunset’s social media.
MezzA101 said: "SmokeyLady said: "Definitely fun to speculate. That is all anyone is doing here. But regarding Brantley's piece; Look for other free things to come out for the other nominees."
Here's a freebie. The print NYT A&L today is the Tony Awards Preview with all the articles, pictures, and splashy ads. Only picture on the front page is a large Nicole.
"
Robbie2 said: "MezzA101 said: "SmokeyLady said: "Definitely fun to speculate. That is all anyone is doing here. But regarding Brantley's piece; Look for other free things to come out for the other nominees."
Here's a freebie. The print NYT A&L today is the Tony Awards Preview with all the articles, pictures, and splashy ads. Only picture on the front page is a large Nicole.
"
"
Lovely. Thanks for letting me know. I will be picking up my print copy this afternoon.
Swing Joined: 8/19/22
Here are all of the ads:
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https://freeimage.host/i/3Panm0B
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How Nicole Scherzinger, Audra McDonald, Darren Criss and Jonathan Groff are battling for Tony Awards
https://nypost.com/2025/05/17/entertainment/how-nicole-scherzinger-audra-mcdonald-darren-criss-and-jonathan-groff-are-battling-for-tony-awards/
Norma Desmond is currently ahead of Mama Rose.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/26/16
Robbie2 said: "How Nicole Scherzinger, Audra McDonald, Darren Criss and Jonathan Groff are battling for Tony Awards
https://nypost.com/2025/05/17/entertainment/how-nicole-scherzinger-audra-mcdonald-darren-criss-and-jonathan-groff-are-battling-for-tony-awards/
Norma Desmond is currently ahead of Mama Rose."
The line is the last one in Johnny Oleksinski’s article, which states this as fact while citing Ben Brantley’s glowing New York Times piece about Audra McDonald in Gypsy but then dismissing the Times as irrelevant. For what it’s worth, he gives credence to the Drama League honor as a boost for Scherzinger.
He said Death Becomes Her was the main attraction for the out-of-town voters and characterized the race as boiling down to Death Becomes Her and Maybe Happy Ending.
I have no idea if any of this is true or if Oleksinski is touting his own favorites. Toss it into the speculation soup.
If Maybe Happy Ending’s main rival is Death Becomes Her, that’s probably good news for MHE. In a battle between a commercial comedy and a funny but poignant original musical, the latter almost always wins unless the former is a box office and cultural sensation.
The amount of Tony voters I have spoken with are really taken by DBH. It’s really starting to take over the new musical race
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