bjh2114 said: "bear88 said: "bjh2114, I don’t really have much.Sunset Blvd. is the clear favorite for Best Revival based on the nominations (nothing forGypsydirector George C. Wolfe). That gives Scherzinger an edge, and suggests that at least some actual Tony voters are buying what Jamie Lloyd is selling - and his main attraction is Scherzinger. Obviously, Audra McDonald could overcome all that because, well, she’s Audra."
But the nominating committee and the Tony voters are not the same body. I wouldn't take the number of nominations one production received over another as gospel. Sure, it's generally a decent indicator, but there have been plenty of times historically where the production receiving the most nominations has gone home with very few awards. In semi-recent memory,Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812 led with the most nominations in 2017 with 12 (Dear Evan Hansen had 9), and it walked away with 2 awards (Dear Evan Hansen got 6). In 2018, Mean Girls and SpongeBob tied with the most nominations at 12, and Mean Girls walked away with 0 awards and SpongeBob got 1. If we're talking about revivals, that same year Carousel got 11 nominations (winning 2) and My Fair Lady got 10 nominations (winning 1). Yet Once On This Island won Best Revival. In 2023, Some Like it Hot led with 13 nominations while Kimberly Akimbo got 8 (also Shucked had 9), and we all know how that turned out.
All of this is to say that sometimes the voters and the nominators don't have exactly the same taste. Yes there is often correlation, but I wouldn't read into it too much. Double this when it comes to the performers rather than production awards since there are more "personal feelings" involved there. This isn't to say that Nicole can't or won't win. I just think interpreting the number of nominations as "momentum" isn't a super accurate lens, especially when you factor in the "beloved member of the Broadway community" factor for Audra and the "where can I get that red hat" factor for Nicole. There are, in my opinion, too many variables to make a call in this race at the moment."
I am definitely not making a call, and no one should believe me if I were. To the extent I think Scherzinger has a slight edge, it’s less about the nomination count than about the clear impression I have that Sunset Blvd. Is the frontrunner for Best Revival (Jamie Lloyd nominated for Best Director, Wolfe not). I agree that one hard-to-guess intangible favors McDonald. She is a beloved Broadway veteran giving a historic starring turn in a classic. Scherzinger has the problem of her personal politics (liking the Kennedy post kind of gives it away) at a fraught time. I think her PR team has done a good job trying to get past that (even her song choice at Miscast felt deliberate) and it doesn’t seem like it’s a big topic. But I don’t know if it will be enough to work, especially when Audra is giving a performance that seems to surpass the production. Ben Brantley’s piece wasn’t about Gypsy; it was about Audra.
Score seems like a very fluid category, and I don’t blame the Death Becomes Her team for going for it. The Maybe Happy Ending score, which I was just listening to yesterday, is a solid, lyrics-driven candidate but it feels like a stronger book. Dead Outlaw has a fine score but I’m still not sure how voters will feel about it overall. Real Women Have Curves feels doomed due to its lack of major nominations. Operation Mincemeat has the best song but voters can honor that by picking Jak Malone.
A stipulation: I don’t really know what I’m talking about. It’s just fun to speculate in such an unpredictable year.
Updated On: 5/17/25 at 02:38 PM
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