The 78th Annual Tony Award Nominations for 2025 — Page 17

Looks like “for rhe gaze” from DBH.

The NY Times voters poll is out and Paulson polled a huge 25% of the voters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/theater/tony-awards-predictions-2025.html

Discuss...

The New York Times' annual Tony voters survey is out and djoko84 and I crossed paths writing about it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/theater/tony-awards-predictions-2025.html

There are no major surprises, with Maybe Happy Ending leading easily for Best Musical (second place is a tie between Buena Vista Social Club and Death Becomes Her). Best Play is a virtual three-way tie between Purpose and John Proctor is the Villain - with Oh, Mary "only a tiny bit behind."

Best Actress in a Musical is - shocker - too close to call between Audra McDonald and Nicole Scherzinger. The latter actress may get a boost because Sunset Blvd. is ahead for Best Revival over the "polarizing" Gypsy.

Michael Paulson hedges his prediction in Best Actor in a Musical, but he seems pretty convinced that Jonathan Groff is going to win.

"Jonathan Groff, a much-loved Broadway star, won his first Tony Award last year for Merrily We Roll Along, and it’s likely, but by no means certain, that he will pick up his second this year for playing Bobby Darin in the musical Just in Time," he writes.

If Groff doesn't win, Darren Criss will, Paulson adds.

Best Revival of a Play is close, with Eureka Day having a "slight edge" over Yellow Face.

The survey is, as always, limited to best plays, musicals and lead acting performances. Paulson's story doesn't provide many hints about where Best Direction will wind up. My assumption based on the article is that it's between Michael Arden for Maybe Happy Ending and Jamie Lloyd for Sunset Blvd. The fact that Dead Outlaw isn't mentioned makes me think it will probably be shut out. It's hard to imagine it winning Best Score, for example, when it's running fourth or fifth in Best Musical.

Other random guesses: I suspect Maybe Happy Ending gets book and score, not because voters necessarily want a sweep in those categories but because they are too divided on an alternative unless there's a groundswell for Death Becomes Her to win outside of Best Costume Design.

If Buena Vista Social Club is running second or third for Best Musical, that probably bodes well for its nominees like Natalie Venetia Belcon in Best Featured Actress and maybe orchestrations.

There will be plenty of excitement on Sunday evening.

Updated On: 6/6/25 at 03:29 AM

I've been thinking Darren Criss will win but the NYT article gives me pause. Looks like it could be two years in a row for Groff.

Everything else is pretty much as expected. Does not seem like an upset for Jasmine Amy Rogers is brewing.

Kad said: "

For me, I think Paulson’s canvassing rules out the idea of Jasmine Amy Rogers pulling a dark horse victory. She would need support that would have shown up here."

Yeah gonna go change my predictions where I can in re: to Jasmine. Seems the two lead candidates are so far ahead that the remaining 75% or so won’t change much.

Also, might go back and go with my initial gut feeling of JPITV for Best Play. Seems it’s in the race with a real shot.

A Criss win would feel correct and deserved, but honestly so would Groff.

A back-to-back lead win? He really is the Tom Hanks of Broadway.

Purpose has the prestige & weight but I do feel a late break for Proctor. The reviews were stellar. It is also a much bigger hit it feels like than the expectations were.

Proctor is about youth but I feel like there’s a bit more there as well.

I liked both quite a bit (edge to Proctor).

Groff would be a worthy winner and also seems to have taken off - I can’t escape Just in Time ads.

I still feel like Audra might be a hair ahead but it’s essentially tied.

If Purpose takes Play than Kara Young is certainly winning unless Eureka Day is strong to get Hecht that win.

Strazza is too young in a strong ensemble.

The no director nomination for Purpose is too weird for me to predict for Play but maybe a stat that can be broken this year.

bear88 said: "Best Actress in a Musical is - shocker -too close to call between Audra McDonald and Nicole Scherzinger. The latter actress may get a boost because Sunset Blvd. is ahead for Best Revival over the "polarizing" Gypsy."

That's what I'm thinking. We've seen in the past that when it comes to close races at any awards show, the nominee whose project was the stronger contender usually prevails. I used that logic to successfully predict Tony Shalhoub to win for The Band's Visit despite how open-ended Best Lead Actor in a Musical was in 2018. I also used it to successfully call Maleah Joi Moon for Hell's Kitchen last year despite stiff competition from Kelli O'Hara and Maryann Plunkett because between the three of them, the former was the only one who was in a Best Musical nominee. This logic also likely helped Tracy Letts win in 2013 over both Tom Hanks and Nathan Lane, Patina Miller that same year over Laura Osnes, and Kelli O'Hara over Kristin Chenoweth in 2015.

Maybe it's just my demographic but I feel like in the last week or so John Proctor has really taken center stage for Best Play. I know it didn't win and other awards but I don't know if that matters. The Times article about women's emotional response to the show, the amount of celebrities seeing and shouting out the show, and the social media team has genuinely done a great job of painting it as a phenom (funnily enough--it's the same social media person for the show's most direct competitor Oh Mary!). Curious if others feel this or I'm just a millenail woman in a bubble. I didn't feel this before the last week or so!

And with that...is Danya Taymor going to win Best Director again?



Featured Actress in a Play is my favorite category. Damn all of those women just worked magic this season. On vibes alone I want to say Tala Ashe will win.