The 78th Annual Tony Award Nominations for 2025- Page 17

[bear88]

Posted: 6/5/25 at 6:26pm

BJR said: "MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Went back to Variety's final predictions for 2024, and they of course got plenty wrong:

Lead Actor - Play: Leslie Odom Jr. instead of Jeremy Strong
Featured Actress -Musical: Lindsey Mendez instead of Kecia Lewis
Featured Actress - Play: Sarah Pidgeon instead of Kara Young
Book: The Outsiders instead of Suffs
Score: Stereophonic instead of Suffs
Director - Musical: Maria Friedman instead of Danya Taymor"

That is a LOT wrong."

My impression is that even Variety, with its conversations with however many Tony voters, or someone like Adam Feldman, who seems to keep his ear to the ground, get plenty of their picks wrong. (I checked on Feldman’s choices from last year. He was closer than Variety but still had some big misses.)

That’s why the New York Times survey is obviously the gold standard. But Paulson hedges his predictions if races look close. And he doesn’t ask about most categories anyway. 

That said, I’m happy to have a little drama about who might win in so many big categories.

[Bette's Turban]

Posted: 6/5/25 at 6:30pm

Looks like “for rhe gaze” from DBH.  

[djoko84]

Posted: 6/5/25 at 7:29pm

I would say Variety spoke to 10 to 20 voters at the most. I think if it was a big number like more than 50 then they would've said so. 

[djoko84]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 3:22am

The NY Times voters poll is out and Paulson polled a huge 25% of the voters. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/theater/tony-awards-predictions-2025.html

Discuss...

[djoko84]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 3:27am

Basically, it didn't give us any clarity on the close races other than that it looks like Jonathan Groff will win Lead Actor over Darren Criss.

[bear88]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 3:29am

The New York Times' annual Tony voters survey is out and djoko84 and I crossed paths writing about it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/theater/tony-awards-predictions-2025.html

There are no major surprises, with Maybe Happy Ending leading easily for Best Musical (second place is a tie between Buena Vista Social Club and Death Becomes Her). Best Play is a virtual three-way tie between Purpose and John Proctor is the Villain - with Oh, Mary "only a tiny bit behind." 

Best Actress in a Musical is - shocker - too close to call between Audra McDonald and Nicole Scherzinger. The latter actress may get a boost because Sunset Blvd. is ahead for Best Revival over the "polarizing" Gypsy.

Michael Paulson hedges his prediction in Best Actor in a Musical, but he seems pretty convinced that Jonathan Groff is going to win. 

"Jonathan Groff, a much-loved Broadway star, won his first Tony Award last year for Merrily We Roll Along, and it’s likely, but by no means certain, that he will pick up his second this year for playing Bobby Darin in the musical Just in Time," he writes.

If Groff doesn't win, Darren Criss will, Paulson adds.

Best Revival of a Play is close, with Eureka Day having a "slight edge" over Yellow Face.

The survey is, as always, limited to best plays, musicals and lead acting performances. Paulson's story doesn't provide many hints about where Best Direction will wind up. My assumption based on the article is that it's between Michael Arden for Maybe Happy Ending and Jamie Lloyd for Sunset Blvd. The fact that Dead Outlaw isn't mentioned makes me think it will probably be shut out. It's hard to imagine it winning Best Score, for example, when it's running fourth or fifth in Best Musical.

Other random guesses: I suspect Maybe Happy Ending gets book and score, not because voters necessarily want a sweep in those categories but because they are too divided on an alternative unless there's a groundswell for Death Becomes Her to win outside of Best Costume Design.

If Buena Vista Social Club is running second or third for Best Musical, that probably bodes well for its nominees like Natalie Venetia Belcon in Best Featured Actress and maybe orchestrations.

There will be plenty of excitement on Sunday evening.

Updated On: 6/6/25 at 03:29 AM

[MezzA101]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 5:10am

djoko84 said: "The NY Times voters poll is out and Paulson polled a huge 25% of the voters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/theater/tony-awards-predictions-2025.html

Discuss..."

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/theater/tony-awards-predictions-2025.html?unlocked_article_code=1.M08.pf6j.fSFPSRaXBffY

 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 7:19am

I've been thinking Darren Criss will win but the NYT article gives me pause. Looks like it could be two years in a row for Groff.

Everything else is pretty much as expected. Does not seem like an upset for Jasmine Amy Rogers is brewing. 

[Kad]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 7:20am

That is such a large sample size that it lessens concerns that nominee support is under- or over-represented in the sampling. Although the overwhelming majority of voters still weren’t polled, any kind of substantial support movement would likely have shown up in this sample. 
 

For me, I think Paulson’s canvassing rules out the idea of Jasmine Amy Rogers pulling a dark horse victory. She would need support that would have shown up here. 
 

Otherwise, Paulson’s findings aren’t terribly surprising in these categories, save perhaps for Best Play being a lot tighter than I expected. 

[TigerBait88]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 7:44am

Kad said: "

For me, I think Paulson’s canvassing rules out the idea of Jasmine Amy Rogers pulling a dark horse victory. She would need support that would have shown up here."

Yeah gonna go change my predictions where I can in re: to Jasmine. Seems the two lead candidates are so far ahead that the remaining 75% or so won’t change much.

Also, might go back and go with my initial gut feeling of JPITV for Best Play. Seems it’s in the race with a real shot. 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 10:03am

Thank goodness all the nonsense talk about Jasmine can put to rest.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 10:06am

Come throuuuuuuuugh, Nicole! 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 10:39am

Well...I felt confident in Oh, Mary for Best Play but after Paulson's survey I have ZERO clue what to do with that category. The closeness of the race in his description is also backed up by Purpose winning the Drama Desk despite John Proctor taking director (where Purpose wasn't even nominated, just like the Tonys).

If Purpose or John Proctor wins, they might take Best Play and nothing else. Kara Young or Fina Strazza could take featured actress from Jessica Hecht, but that category is totally up in the air. Danya Taymor could stage an upset for director, but Sam Pinkleton is currently favored. I don't see either play as competitive in any other race. Crazy year.

[someoneinatree2]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 10:43am

A Criss win would feel correct and deserved, but honestly so would Groff.

A back-to-back lead win? He really is the Tom Hanks of Broadway.

[WldKingdomHM]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 10:47am

Nicole you got this 

[Robbie2]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 10:55am

WldKingdomHM said: "Nicole you got this"

NICOLE is giving the performance of a lifetime! She breathtaking and mesmerizing as Norma! The most talked about this year along with the best musical revival of the season - SUNSET!

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 11:05am

I think “Proctor” youthful theme is not winning over “Purpose”, which is a more “serious” contender.

Its either “Oh, Mary!” or “Purpose” and even tho “Purpose” seems reasonable, I’m sticking with the comedy.

[theatergoer3]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 11:48am

Purpose has the prestige & weight but I do feel a late break for Proctor. The reviews were stellar. It is also a much bigger hit it feels like than the expectations were. 

Proctor is about youth but I feel like there’s a bit more there as well. 

I liked both quite a bit (edge to Proctor). 

Groff would be a worthy winner and also seems to have taken off - I can’t escape Just in Time ads. 

I still feel like Audra might be a hair ahead but it’s essentially tied. 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 12:12pm

Whoa, so many surprises in the Paulson survey this year that could have a ripple effect on many categories.

Seems like OH, MARY! is not the runaway favorite we might’ve thought it was, but I still see it winning lead actor and featured actor in a play. Could PURPOSE take best play, but PROCTOR director and featured actress?

 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 2:00pm

If Purpose takes Play than Kara Young is certainly winning unless Eureka Day is strong to get Hecht that win.

Strazza is too young in a strong ensemble.

The no director nomination for Purpose is too weird for me to predict for Play but maybe a stat that can be broken this year.

[JSquared2]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 2:11pm

Mr. Wormwood said: "I've been thinking Darren Criss will win but the NYT article gives me pause. Looks like it could be two years in a row for Groff.

Everything else is pretty much as expected. Does not seem like an upset for Jasmine Amy Rogers is brewing."

 

Honestly, it never was.  For her, the nomination is the win.  While I loathed BOOP, I look forward to seeing what she does next.  Could she be a candidate for Svetlana?

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 3:03pm

bear88 said: "Best Actress in a Musical is - shocker -too close to call between Audra McDonald and Nicole Scherzinger. The latter actress may get a boost because Sunset Blvd. is ahead for Best Revival over the "polarizing" Gypsy."

That's what I'm thinking. We've seen in the past that when it comes to close races at any awards show, the nominee whose project was the stronger contender usually prevails. I used that logic to successfully predict Tony Shalhoub to win for The Band's Visit despite how open-ended Best Lead Actor in a Musical was in 2018. I also used it to successfully call Maleah Joi Moon for Hell's Kitchen last year despite stiff competition from Kelli O'Hara and Maryann Plunkett because between the three of them, the former was the only one who was in a Best Musical nominee. This logic also likely helped Tracy Letts win in 2013 over both Tom Hanks and Nathan Lane, Patina Miller that same year over Laura Osnes, and Kelli O'Hara over Kristin Chenoweth in 2015.

[abcd12]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 3:18pm

Yep. I think the George C Wolfe snub is particularly telling. 
 

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 3:37pm

Maybe it's just my demographic but I feel like in the last week or so John Proctor has really taken center stage for Best Play. I know it didn't win and other awards but I don't know if that matters. The Times article about women's emotional response to the show, the amount of celebrities seeing and shouting out the show, and the social media team has genuinely done a great job of painting it as a phenom (funnily enough--it's the same social media person for the show's most direct competitor Oh Mary!). Curious if others feel this or I'm just a millenail woman in a bubble. I didn't feel this before the last week or so!

And with that...is Danya Taymor going to win Best Director again?

 

Featured Actress in a Play is my favorite category. Damn all of those women just worked magic this season. On vibes alone I want to say Tala Ashe will win. 

[BCfitasafiddle]

Posted: 6/6/25 at 3:42pm

I adored Audra's performance and I also just love her as a person. That being said, I will be rooting for Nicole on Sunday. When I look back on this season, it will be her performance that I think about most of all. It impacted me more than any one else in the category.