Robbie2 said: "Goldderby - Nicole leadsBest Actress Musical
https://www.goldderby.com/odds/graph/tony-awards-2025-predictions/best-actress-musical/"
I am starting to rethink my speculation that Nicole Scherzinger has a slight edge. First off, I don’t take Gold Derby all that seriously on the Tony Awards, but Scherzinger’s lead is based on her running up the score with the site’s ‘Top 24’ users. I don’t know who these people are. Their ‘experts’ - including critics - favor McDonald by a 7-4 margin. I’m not counting any of this.
I’m not going to make too big of a deal about the Drama Desk award for McDonald - shared with Jasmine Amy Rogers - but it’s in the mix.
Mainly, I am wondering if I overstated the significance of the apparent advantage Scherzinger might have based on my assumption that Sunset Blvd. would win Best Revival and that would help Scherzinger in a close race.
What if my assumption was wrong in the first place? What if McDonald has been the frontrunner all along? What if many voters are happy to vote for Sunset but honor Audra at the same time for a history-making turn in one of the most famous roles in musical theater history?
Audra’s campaign has been old-fashioned - the Ben Brantley tribute in the New York Times, the Time magazine story that discusses performing before former Vice President Kamala Harris and what the role means to her as a Black woman - but might be very effective with the industry voters she needs.
Her leading competitors, Scherzinger and Rogers, are making their Broadway debuts. Scherzinger is a fantastic vocalist and is doing exactly what her director wants. But I can imagine voters wanting to see what else she can do. I still would be pretty surprised if Rogers wins for a show that is regarded as mediocre.
I’ve changed my mind. I think Audra McDonald has the edge.
And once again, for clarification: I know nothing. I am speculating for fun.
Updated On: 6/2/25 at 04:41 AM
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