Broadway Legend Joined: 4/26/16
Kad said: "I wouldn't be totally shocked if Musical, Book, & Score go to three different shows- I would guess MHE, Mincemeat, and Outlaw, respectively. MHE is a good overall package, Book often rewards clever, funny shows and voters may want to give Mincemeat something meaningful, and Dead Outlaw's score is just great and Yazbek has really emerged as one of our finest musical theatre composers.
I believe the last time there was a three way split of those awards in a competitive year (aka- not the COVID ceremony) was 2005 with Spamalot, Spelling Bee, and Piazza- a similarly very strong year with no obvious frontrunner to sweep."
I can imagine that happening. The open question is how enthusiastic Tony voters will be to ‘reward’ a particular show. I suspect Jak Malone will win in featured actor so Operation Mincemeat won’t go home empty-handed even if it loses book. The main questions, I guess, are the amount of love for Maybe Happy Ending (which could also affect the Best Actor race) and the level of enthusiasm for Operation Mincemeat and Dead Outlaw.
Maybe Happy Ending - lots of overall nominations, including direction. No best actress nom for Helen Shen in an admittedly tough category. Lots of critical praise, good narrative, some critique of it being too ‘cute.’ Score isn’t memorable on its own but works very well in the context of the character- and plot-driven story. Strong, well-crafted book that covers some dark themes but is designed to have audiences leaving happy.
Operation Mincemeat - no best direction, no acting nominations outside of Malone (who voters can admire without liking the overall show). Weaker reviews than the other two, probably was the fifth choice for Best Musical. Very clever and sentimental but not for everyone. Already won the Olivier - not sure if that helps. Best new song and some catchy melodies. Do voters want to award the actor-writers?
Dead Outlaw - about as well reviewed as Maybe Happy Ending. A very American musical that has no desire to be loved or appeal to sentiment, a notable contrast to the other two. Probably the strongest overall score but it can be a bit grating at times. Definitely not for everyone. Most acting nominations of the three along with direction. How do Tony voters respond to it?
If Maybe Happy Ending wins Best Musical, might it win nothing else? That seems unlikely. I can imagine the show sweeping the three categories, and Criss prevailing too, or just winning Best Musical without another major win.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/26/19
Who is the obvious frontrunner for Best Direction of a Play? Unfortunately, I've missed English but based on the rest I saw, I'm rooting for Danya Taymor.
Sam Pinkleton - Oh, Mary
HeyMrMusic said: "WhileMaybe Happy Ending’s book may seem simplistic, it’s much deeper than surface level. It deals with facing mortality, deep-seated trauma, abandonment by loved ones, falling in love despite a known expiration date. I can’t be the only one to have connected with the show on a human level because we know someone who has a terminal illness, is in advanced age, or any other related hardship. Add to that, the show is basically a musical two-hander, which is not common and hard to pull off. It seems simple because there are not many people onstage, but it feels like a complete story when combined with the character- and narrative-driven score.
I think there’s a scenario where MHE takes several of those design awards fromSunsetif a sweep is to be had. It wouldn’t be inconceivable forMaybe Happy Endingto win a majority of its nominations."
It would really be a sweep if they take costume design.
Costumes will go to Death Becomes Her or Boop. Not sure how MHE even made that category over MINCEMEAT, SMASH, RWHC etc
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/24/14
I was looking for a stat and ''The Goat, or Who Is Sylvia?'' is the only Best Play Winner without a Directing nom (against a nominee who got a directing nom) in this century. Even with the Pulitzer, it's a hard stat for ''Purpose'' to overcome.
CoffeeBreak said: "Costumes will go to Death Becomes Her or Boop. Not sure how MHE even made that category over MINCEMEAT, SMASH, RWHC etc"
MHE got a costume design nomination because they were designed by an industry favorite (and previous winner) and the look of the characters are instantly recognizable and memorable.
Broadway Star Joined: 3/14/13
CoffeeBreak said: "Costumes will go to Death Becomes Her or Boop. Not sure how MHE even made that category over MINCEMEAT, SMASH, RWHC etc"
I'm glad it was you CoffeeBreak who mentioned this. When a show gets noms in categories that had stronger contenders that means it's really loved in the industry. Another reason it will win Best Musical. Thanks for bringing that up, CoffeeBreak.
CoffeeBreak said: "Costumes will go to Death Becomes Her or Boop. Not sure how MHE even made that category over MINCEMEAT, SMASH, RWHC etc"
Mr Showbiz.. so impressed your mentioning Boop in a positive light.
bear88 said: "IfMaybe Happy Endingwins Best Musical, might it win nothing else? That seems unlikely. I can imagine the show sweeping the three categories, and Criss prevailingtoo, or just winning Best Musical without another major win."
I know no one asked, but a while back I went down a rabbit hole and verified that no show has ever won only Best Musical and nothing else, though a few shows have only won one other Tony Award (most recently A Strange Loop). There have been plays (e.g. Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike) and musical revivals (e.g. Hair) that won only the big award and nothing else, though.
Understudy Joined: 4/6/14
Apologies if this has been addressed, but does anyone know what happened to the usual Tony nominee press day that's typically one or two days after the nominations? Was that delayed for some reason?
Videos