The 78th Annual Tony Award Nominations for 2025 — Page 14

Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan chatted their musical performance predictions here.

Both agree Audra has a very slim advantage over Nicole, and that Criss, Malone, and Belcon are the frontrunners in their respective categories.

MezzA101 said: "Jessw Green:

Tonys 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?



https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/theater/tonys-2025-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Hk8.ckVw.30LF3s5efdod&smid=nytcore-android-share"

Thank you for the gift link! Some … interesting predictions (mainly in favor of DEATH BECOMES HER).

Am I allowed to comment on these predictions, djoko84? 🙄

Updated On: 5/17/25 at 08:44 AM

Wow - sounds like the voters are really enjoying DEATH BECOMES HER?

(I am assuming Green at least spoke with some voters before compiling this list.)

Green doesn’t really have a great prediction record, so I wouldn’t read much into this at all on that front. It’s really more reflective of him and his view of the industry which is looking increasingly out of touch.

Jesse Green been out here just makin stuff up.

Looking over Green’s predictions the last few seasons, he generally gets the very obvious wins correct but when the categories are unsettled, he seems to underestimate Tony voters and his “should win” picks end up winning (or he’s just entirely off).


I do think we’ve had a bit of a shift away from one show coming in and sweeping to awards being more spread out, which makes predictions harder. Covid seems to have really sapped nonprofit off-Broadway’s engine as a development and transfer machine (half of the best musical winners in the 2010s were direct transfers, Hadestown started as a NYTW production and Mormon was initially developed there as well). Of the post covid seasons, the only show that really fits that transfer-sweep model is Kimberly Akimbo (even Strange Loop underperformed at the awards).


We all got used to there being such an obvious frontrunner every year that the question wasn’t if they would win, but by how much. Now we’re on another season of several strong contenders, which is exciting.

Updated On: 5/16/25 at 11:31 AM

bear88 said: "I would be a little surprised by a major category sweep, but Scherzinger seems to have what passes for momentum for BestActress (despite a formidable rival in Audra McDonald) and Jamie Lloyd is a serious contender."

What exactly are you considering momentum for Scherzinger?

The discourse this year is starting to remind me of 2023 when Kimberly Akimbo was the frontrunner for so long and then between nominations and the awards, everyone seemed to star to think that Some Like It Hot was positioning itself to win and gaining momentum. Then of course Kimberly still won.

I feel the same here. Yes, I do think Death Becomes Her has gotten stronger but I still think Best Musical is going to Maybe Happy Ending and I don't actually think it's all that close.

WiCkEDrOcKS said: "MezzA101 said: "Jessw Green:

Tonys 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?



https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/theater/tonys-2025-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Hk8.ckVw.30LF3s5efdod&smid=nytcore-android-share"

Thank you for the gift link! Some interesting predictions here (mainly in favor of DEATH BECOMES HER).

Am I allowed to comment on these predictions,djoko84? 🙄"

People can talk about them as PREDICTIONS all they want, but just like the poster above said people are delusional if they think Jesse Green is basing them off of speaking to Tony voters. The NY Times voters poll is done by someone totally different and comes out the Friday before the Tonys. So like the person above said, if anyone thinks Death Becomes Her has a shot bc Jesse Green made a nonsensical prediction, then they're delusional.

bear88 said: "Geez, djoko84, you remain determined to spoil any fun by knocking down more straw men. We all know the New York Times poll of Tony Awards voters is done by its theater reporter and that Jesse Green is a critic and isn’t running around conducting a formal survey.

The only points I would make are the following:Death Becomes Heris probably stronger than I thought. It got a bunch of Tony nominations and picked up steam at the box office. Green’s prediction, while farfetched, is consistent with other information we do have. I am not sure if that strength will lead to any Tony wins in major categories or impact any other races, though. I don’t think it has a chance at Best Musical becauseMaybe Happy Endingis in the sweet spot there. I think it’s in a stronger position thanKimberly Akimbowas in 2023 because it’s doing betterat the box office at this point, to the extent that matters. Its only disadvantage compared to KAis that the competition is stronger this year.

bjh2114, I don’t really have much.Sunset Blvd. is the clear favorite for Best Revival based on the nominations (nothing forGypsydirector George C. Wolfe). That gives Scherzinger an edge, and suggests that at least some actual Tony voters are buying what Jamie Lloyd is selling - and his main attraction is Scherzinger. Obviously, Audra McDonald could overcome all that because, well, she’s Audra."

The difference is your post brings up good points in a discussion. I wouldn't be critical if more of the posts were like yours. But the posts after the link to Jesse Green's predictions are talking nonsense.

djoko84 said: "WiCkEDrOcKS said: "MezzA101 said: "Jessw Green:

Tonys 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?



https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/theater/tonys-2025-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Hk8.ckVw.30LF3s5efdod&smid=nytcore-android-share"

Thank you for the gift link! Some interesting predictions here (mainly in favor of DEATH BECOMES HER).

Am I allowed to comment on these predictions,djoko84? 🙄"

People can talk about them as PREDICTIONS all they want, but just like the poster above said people are delusional if they think Jesse Green is basing them off of speaking to Tony voters. The NY Times voters poll is done by someone totally different and comes out the Friday before the Tonys. So like the person above said, if anyone thinks Death Becomes Her has a shot bc Jesse Green made a nonsensical prediction, then they're delusional."

News flash: “people can talk” about whatever the hell they want to and if you don’t like it, too damn bad.

Sadly for the rest of us, that includes your insufferably obnoxious and condescending comments which you seem to have no shortage of.

Updated On: 5/17/25 at 07:40 AM

bear88 said: "bjh2114, I don’t really have much.Sunset Blvd. is the clear favorite for Best Revival based on the nominations (nothing forGypsydirector George C. Wolfe). That gives Scherzinger an edge, and suggests that at least some actual Tony voters are buying what Jamie Lloyd is selling - and his main attraction is Scherzinger. Obviously, Audra McDonald could overcome all that because, well, she’s Audra."

But the nominating committee and the Tony voters are not the same body. I wouldn't take the number of nominations one production received over another as gospel. Sure, it's generally a decent indicator, but there have been plenty of times historically where the production receiving the most nominations has gone home with very few awards. In semi-recent memory, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812 led with the most nominations in 2017 with 12 (Dear Evan Hansen had 9), and it walked away with 2 awards (Dear Evan Hansen got 6). In 2018, Mean Girls and SpongeBob tied with the most nominations at 12, and Mean Girls walked away with 0 awards and SpongeBob got 1. If we're talking about revivals, that same year Carousel got 11 nominations (winning 2) and My Fair Lady got 10 nominations (winning 1). Yet Once On This Island won Best Revival. In 2023, Some Like it Hot led with 13 nominations while Kimberly Akimbo got 8 (also Shucked had 9), and we all know how that turned out.

All of this is to say that sometimes the voters and the nominators don't have exactly the same taste. Yes there is often correlation, but I wouldn't read into it too much. Double this when it comes to the performers rather than production awards since there are more "personal feelings" involved there. This isn't to say that Nicole can't or won't win. I just think interpreting the number of nominations as "momentum" isn't a super accurate lens, especially when you factor in the "beloved member of the Broadway community" factor for Audra and the "where can I get that red hat" factor for Nicole. There are, in my opinion, too many variables to make a call in this race at the moment.