The 78th Annual Tony Award Nominations for 2025- Page 14

[bear88]

Posted: 5/15/25 at 1:58pm

djoko84 said: "TotallyEffed said: "Am I the only one who feels the tides have turned in Darren Criss’ favor?"

They were always in his favor."

Hey, djoko84! You were speculating very recently about who might win at the Tony Awards on this very thread. According to your rules, that’s not permitted - and to use your favorite word , ‘foolish’ - because you are supposed to wait until the New York Times survey next month. Now you’re backtracking and saying people shouldn’t put too much weight on the two Tony voters interviewed in an article - something no one did.

i think the djoko84 rules are stupid and just a chance for you to act superior by setting up a straw man so you can knock it down. But I guess they should apply to you. 

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/15/25 at 2:20pm

Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan chatted their musical performance predictions here.

Both agree Audra has a very slim advantage over Nicole, and that Criss, Malone, and Belcon are the frontrunners in their respective categories.  

[MezzA101]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 6:30am

Jesse Green:

Tonys 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/theater/tonys-2025-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Hk8.ckVw.30LF3s5efdod&smid=nytcore-android-share

Updated On: 5/16/25 at 06:30 AM

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 8:44am

MezzA101 said: "Jessw Green:

Tonys 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?



https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/theater/tonys-2025-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Hk8.ckVw.30LF3s5efdod&smid=nytcore-android-share"

Thank you for the gift link! Some … interesting predictions (mainly in favor of DEATH BECOMES HER). 

Am I allowed to comment on these predictions, djoko84? 🙄 

Updated On: 5/17/25 at 08:44 AM

[DanS3]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 10:24am

MezzA101 said: "Jessw Green:

Tonys 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/theater/tonys-2025-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Hk8.ckVw.30LF3s5efdod&smid=nytcore-android-share"

 

 

Thank you for this link!  Wow..kinda surprised that he's predicting a shutout for MHE?  I really enjoyed Death Becomes Her, but I hope he's wrong about it winning.  MHE was just a better show overall (IMO).

[MB124]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 10:37am

Wow - sounds like the voters are really enjoying DEATH BECOMES HER? 

(I am assuming Green at least spoke with some voters before compiling this list.)

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 10:44am

That's exactly what I was going to ask. The DBH predictions are so contrary to most other predictions, and clearly not to his own preferences, that it's hard to believe he would predicting those wins without reason.

[Kad]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 10:51am

Green doesn’t really have a great prediction record, so I wouldn’t read much into this at all on that front. It’s really more reflective of him and his view of the industry which is looking increasingly out of touch.   

[musikman]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 10:59am

Kad said: "Green doesn’t really have a great prediction record, so I wouldn’t read much into this at all on that front. It’s really more reflective of him and his view of the industry which is looking increasingly out of touch. "
 

He has Sam Mendes winning for best director of a play, which I don’t think a single person has predicted.  
 

 

 

Updated On: 5/16/25 at 10:59 AM

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 11:00am

Jesse Green been out here just makin stuff up.

[BanjoKazooie]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 11:01am

musikman said: "Kad said: "Green doesn’t really have a great prediction record, so I wouldn’t read much into this at all on that front. It’s really more reflective of him and his view of the industry which is looking increasingly out of touch. "


He has Sam Mendeswinning for best director of a play, which I don’t think a single person has predicted."

On the merits of the work, I would personally vote for Mendes, but I would never predict him. It's not happening for a closed fall production against both Oh, Mary! and John Proctor's directors.

 

[Kad]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 11:31am

Looking over Green’s predictions the last few seasons, he generally gets the very obvious wins correct but when the categories are unsettled, he seems to underestimate Tony voters and his “should win” picks end up winning (or he’s just entirely off). 
 

I do think we’ve had a bit of a shift away from one show coming in and sweeping to awards being more spread out, which makes predictions harder. Covid seems to have really sapped nonprofit off-Broadway’s engine as a development and transfer machine (half of the best musical winners in the 2010s were direct transfers, Hadestown started as a NYTW production and Mormon was initially developed there as well).  Of the post covid seasons, the only show that really fits that transfer-sweep model is Kimberly Akimbo (even Strange Loop underperformed at the awards). 
 

We all got used to there being such an obvious frontrunner every year that the question wasn’t if they would win, but by how much. Now we’re on another season of several strong contenders, which is exciting. 

Updated On: 5/16/25 at 11:31 AM

[bear88]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 9:14pm

Kad said: "Looking over Green’s predictions the last few seasons, he generally gets the very obvious wins correct but when the categories are unsettled, he seems to underestimate Tony voters and his “should win” picks end up winning (or he’s just entirely off).


I do think we’ve had a bit of a shift away from one show coming in and sweeping to awards being more spread out, which makes predictions harder. Covid seems to have really sapped nonprofit off-Broadway’s engine as a development and transfer machine (half of the best musical winners in the 2010s were direct transfers, Hadestown started as a NYTW production and Mormon was initially developed there as well). Of the post covid seasons, the only show that really fits that transfer-sweep model is Kimberly Akimbo (even Strange Loop underperformed at the awards).


We all got used to there being such an obvious frontrunner every year that the question wasn’t if they would win, but by how much. Now we’re on another season of several strong contenders, which is exciting."

I still think Maybe Happy Ending wins Best Musical, but I also can safely assume that Jesse Green - whatever one thinks of his critical assessments - talks to a lot more Tony voters than I do (especially because my number is zero). The impression I am getting is that there’s a lot of admiration for Death Becomes Her, perhaps not enough to win a major category but enough that a victory wouldn’t be a shock. And even if it doesn’t win, a good showing could affect other races. What show might it take votes from?

The other factor is the looming presence of Sunset Blvd. It’s the clear favorite for Best Revival. Does it win Direction, Best Actress and even Best Actor in a splintered field? I would be a little surprised by a major category sweep, but Scherzinger seems to have what passes for momentum for Best Actress (despite a formidable rival in Audra McDonald) and Jamie Lloyd is a serious contender.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/16/25 at 10:57pm

bear88 said: "I would be a little surprised by a major category sweep, but Scherzinger seems to have what passes for momentum for BestActress (despite a formidable rival in Audra McDonald) and Jamie Lloyd is a serious contender."

What exactly are you considering momentum for Scherzinger?

[Robbie2]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 12:18am

pablitonizer said: "ElephantLoveMedley said: "BEST MUSICAL
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat"

I hope Death Becomes her gets it! it's the best musical this season imo!"

 

Me too and a lot of buzz is now shifting towards DBH vs. MHE. At the spring conference, it was big hit and loved the most for their subscribers!

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 12:24am

The discourse this year is starting to remind me of 2023 when Kimberly Akimbo was the frontrunner for so long and then between nominations and the awards, everyone seemed to star to think that Some Like It Hot was positioning itself to win and gaining momentum. Then of course Kimberly still won.

I feel the same here. Yes, I do think Death Becomes Her has gotten stronger but I still think Best Musical is going to Maybe Happy Ending and I don't actually think it's all that close.

[WldKingdomHM]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 1:38am

Whoever thinks Death will win best musical is delusional as well as Danny for best featured actor  

[djoko84]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 3:15am

WiCkEDrOcKS said: "MezzA101 said: "Jessw Green:

Tonys 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?



https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/theater/tonys-2025-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Hk8.ckVw.30LF3s5efdod&smid=nytcore-android-share"

Thank you for the gift link! Some interesting predictions here (mainly in favor of DEATH BECOMES HER).

Am I allowed to comment on these predictions,djoko84? 🙄"

People can talk about them as PREDICTIONS all they want,  but just like the poster above said people are delusional if they think Jesse Green is basing them off of speaking to Tony voters. The NY Times voters poll is done by someone totally different and comes out the Friday before the Tonys. So like the person above said,  if anyone thinks Death Becomes Her has a shot bc Jesse Green made a nonsensical prediction, then they're delusional. 

[bear88]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 4:38am

Geez, djoko84, you remain determined to spoil any fun by knocking down more straw men. We all know the New York Times poll of Tony Awards voters is done by its theater reporter and that Jesse Green is a critic and isn’t running around conducting a formal survey. 

The only points I would make are the following: Death Becomes Her is probably stronger than I thought. It got a bunch of Tony nominations and picked up steam at the box office. Green’s prediction, while farfetched, is consistent with other information we do have. I am not sure if that strength will lead to any Tony wins in major categories or impact any other races, though. I don’t think it has a chance at Best Musical because Maybe Happy Ending  is in the sweet spot there. I think it’s in a stronger position than Kimberly Akimbo was in 2023 because it’s doing better at the box office at this point, to the extent that matters. Its only disadvantage compared to KA is that the competition is stronger this year.

bjh2114, I don’t really have much. Sunset Blvd. is the clear favorite for Best Revival based on the nominations (nothing for Gypsy director George C. Wolfe). That gives Scherzinger an edge, and suggests that at least some actual Tony voters are buying what Jamie Lloyd is selling - and his main attraction is Scherzinger. Obviously, Audra McDonald could overcome all that because, well, she’s Audra. 

[djoko84]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 5:28am

bear88 said: "Geez, djoko84, you remain determined to spoil any fun by knocking down more straw men. We all know the New York Times poll of Tony Awards voters is done by its theater reporter and that Jesse Green is a critic and isn’t running around conducting a formal survey.

The only points I would make are the following:Death Becomes Heris probably stronger than I thought. It got a bunch of Tony nominations and picked up steam at the box office. Green’s prediction, while farfetched, is consistent with other information we do have. I am not sure if that strength will lead to any Tony wins in major categories or impact any other races, though. I don’t think it has a chance at Best Musical becauseMaybe Happy Endingis in the sweet spot there. I think it’s in a stronger position thanKimberly Akimbowas in 2023 because it’s doing betterat the box office at this point, to the extent that matters. Its only disadvantage compared to KAis that the competition is stronger this year.

bjh2114, I don’t really have much.Sunset Blvd. is the clear favorite for Best Revival based on the nominations (nothing forGypsydirector George C. Wolfe). That gives Scherzinger an edge, and suggests that at least some actual Tony voters are buying what Jamie Lloyd is selling - and his main attraction is Scherzinger. Obviously, Audra McDonald could overcome all that because, well, she’s Audra."

The difference is your post brings up good points in a discussion. I wouldn't be critical if more of the posts were like yours. But the posts after the link to Jesse Green's predictions are talking nonsense.

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 6:59am

These boards are blessed to have you here to serve as the arbiter of what's nonsense and to police discussions.

[MB124]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 7:40am

djoko84 said: "WiCkEDrOcKS said: "MezzA101 said: "Jessw Green:

Tonys 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?



https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/theater/tonys-2025-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Hk8.ckVw.30LF3s5efdod&smid=nytcore-android-share"

Thank you for the gift link! Some interesting predictions here (mainly in favor of DEATH BECOMES HER).

Am I allowed to comment on these predictions,djoko84? 🙄"

People can talk about them as PREDICTIONS all they want, but just like the poster above said people are delusional if they think Jesse Green is basing them off of speaking to Tony voters. The NY Times voters poll is done by someone totally different and comes out the Friday before the Tonys. So like the person above said, if anyone thinks Death Becomes Her has a shot bc Jesse Green made a nonsensical prediction, then they're delusional."

News flash: “people can talk” about whatever the hell they want to and if you don’t like it, too damn bad. 

Sadly for the rest of us, that includes your insufferably obnoxious and condescending comments which you seem to have no shortage of.

Updated On: 5/17/25 at 07:40 AM

[SteveSanders]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 7:49am

The Awards ceremony cannot come soon enough so this place can return to the usual inanity.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 8:47am

bear88 said: "bjh2114, I don’t really have much.Sunset Blvd. is the clear favorite for Best Revival based on the nominations (nothing forGypsydirector George C. Wolfe). That gives Scherzinger an edge, and suggests that at least some actual Tony voters are buying what Jamie Lloyd is selling - and his main attraction is Scherzinger. Obviously, Audra McDonald could overcome all that because, well, she’s Audra."

But the nominating committee and the Tony voters are not the same body. I wouldn't take the number of nominations one production received over another as gospel. Sure, it's generally a decent indicator, but there have been plenty of times historically where the production receiving the most nominations has gone home with very few awards. In semi-recent memory, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812 led with the most nominations in 2017 with 12 (Dear Evan Hansen had 9), and it walked away with 2 awards (Dear Evan Hansen got 6). In 2018, Mean Girls and SpongeBob tied with the most nominations at 12, and Mean Girls walked away with 0 awards and SpongeBob got 1. If we're talking about revivals, that same year Carousel got 11 nominations (winning 2) and My Fair Lady got 10 nominations (winning 1). Yet Once On This Island won Best Revival. In 2023, Some Like it Hot led with 13 nominations while Kimberly Akimbo got 8 (also Shucked had 9), and we all know how that turned out.

All of this is to say that sometimes the voters and the nominators don't have exactly the same taste. Yes there is often correlation, but I wouldn't read into it too much. Double this when it comes to the performers rather than production awards since there are more "personal feelings" involved there. This isn't to say that Nicole can't or won't win. I just think interpreting the number of nominations as "momentum" isn't a super accurate lens, especially when you factor in the "beloved member of the Broadway community" factor for Audra and the "where can I get that red hat" factor for Nicole. There are, in my opinion, too many variables to make a call in this race at the moment.

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 5/17/25 at 10:30am

''Sure, it's generally a decent indicator, but there have been plenty of times historically where the production receiving the most nominations has gone home with very few awards.''

Each awards is its own thing, with its own variables and voters. ''Death Becomes Her'' led the Outer Critics nominations with 12, and lost: 0 for 12. ''Boop!'' leads the Drama Desk noms with 11, but only got 3 at the Tonys. 

Updated On: 5/17/25 at 10:30 AM