Tony race for Best New Musical- Page 2

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/7/25 at 11:27pm

Kad said: "Ensemble1665759202 said: "Kad said: "Listen, I am not and never have been somebody who thinks the label of "original" automatically makes a new musical worthwhile or superior to one adapted from an existing property, but if we are now labeling a musical based off a century-old piece of intellectual property "original," then the term no longer means anything."

Ughh were you one of those people arguing Hamilton wasn't an original musical? lol"

There is literally nothing wrong with a show being an adaptation. It is not a dirty word and it does not make a show inferior. Most musicals are adaptations!"

I think it's two different things - taking a known IP and writing a fully original story around it (like this is) versus an adapting an existing story. Betty Boop has existed as a character, but this musical isn't adapted from any of her cartoons or their plots. It's similar to Annie or the Barbie movie in that way - existing character, putting her into a fully new story. I'd call all three of them original.

I mean in the strictest way I don't disagree with you, but it also depends if we're defining original as "first/origin" vs "innovative/creative" - they're both common definitions of original, but in my mind it's more the latter. If we're discounting all shows that reference an existing character, take reference from a book or movie, any existing music... we're left with verrrrry few shows. Something like Rent, even though it has its La Boheme source material, I'd refer to as an original musical. Something like Hairspray, even with fabulous new music and a new conceit, I wouldn't. But it's all a bit grey. 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/7/25 at 11:33pm

And re: the purpose of this thread, I would be a useless Tony nominator because I truly can't remove any of these seven. I can't remember the last time a season was so strong - feels like in recent years there have been a couple of real winners and then we have the stragglers that make it into Best Musical to fill a quota. 

Boop! (unapologetically loved it and trying to manifest this)
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Operation Mincemeat
Maybe Happy Ending
Real Women Have Curves

Gun to my head, I guess I take out BVSC and Death Becomes Her, but I'm not happy about it haha. 

Updated On: 4/7/25 at 11:33 PM

[KarenValentine'sheadband]

Posted: 4/7/25 at 11:37pm

bjh2114 said: "Robbie2 said: "Thinking now that BOOP received positive reviews and it's original it will make the list but not win Best Musical

BOOP

Buena Vista Social Club

Dead Outlaw

Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat

***Real Woman Have Curves

***Will it bump one of the above?"

Based on early word of mouth about Real Women Have Curves, I imagine it'll be nominated. Despite Boop's good reviews, I think it's probably the one that gets knocked off the list based on the overall better reviews of the other shows (and the reputation Dead Outlaw had off-Broadway). But who knows... maybe this is the year we'll get 6 nominees!"

Why can't there be 6 shows nominated? I realize the number of new musicals are different year to year but there are some great shows out there now. Why not do as the Oscar's do? 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/7/25 at 11:40pm

KarenValentine'sheadband said: "Why can't there be 6 shows nominated? I realize the number of new musicals are different year to year but there are some great shows out there now. Why not do as the Oscar's do?"

There can and will be if there's a tie while voting. Frankly wouldn't be surprised if we see a few categories this year with more than the allotted number due to ties (...namely Lead Actress in a Musical). 

 

[kurtal]

Posted: 4/8/25 at 12:46pm

These Boop reviews certainly help its chances.  

I still think there are three locks in Dead Outlaw, Maybe Happy Ending, and Operation Mincemeat.  And the last two slots will go to some combination of Boop, Buena Vista Social Club, Death Becomes Her, and Real Women Have Curves.  

Having seen all four, I'd nominate BVSC & RWHC.  But I wouldn't be angry at DBH.  I did not like Boop, so I won't be rooting for It to show up in this category.  And I think the overall competition is strong enough that Old Friends will stay on the outside...even if people love it, there are plenty of actual original pieces to nominate.

[BroadwayNYC2]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 8:27am

Oh come on. That would make ANNIE an “original musical” as well. It’s ok to be an adaptation, which BOOP 100000% percent is. 

[Kad]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 9:15am

JudyDenmark said: "

I think it's two different things - taking a known IP and writinga fully original story around it (like this is) versus an adapting anexisting story. Betty Boop has existed as a character, but this musical isn't adapted from any of her cartoons or their plots. It's similar to Annie or the Barbie movie in that way - existing character, putting her into a fully new story. I'd call all three of them original.

I mean in thestrictestway I don't disagree with you, but it also depends if we're defining originalas"first/origin" vs"innovative/creative" - they're both common definitions of original, but in my mind it's more the latter. If we're discounting all showsthat reference an existing character, take reference from a book or movie, any existing music... we're left with verrrrry few shows. Something like Rent, even though it has its La Boheme source material, I'd refer to as an original musical. Something like Hairspray, even with fabulous new music and a new conceit, I wouldn't. But it's all a bit grey."


Well, Barbie was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Academy Awards, not Original Screenplay. I really do think a new story using extremely established characters or properties kind of inherently makes something no longer “original” even in the broadest definition of the term. I wouldn’t call either Boop or Barbie an adaptation, per se. But neither would exist were it not for a well-established prior creation. They’re neither wholly original nor adaptations, but a sort of… continuation. 

[THDavis]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 11:01am

I’m still riding on my surprising high of seeing Real Women Have Curves twice in one day (so surprised by the matinee that I turned around and saw it again that evening), but I’m still clinging that it should absolutely be nominated, if not be in the short list for winner. Curious to see Dead Outlaw. 

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 11:28am

Based on very strong production, book and score, I think in my opinion these four would be nominated in all three categories:

1. MAYBE HAPPY ENDING

2. OPERATION MINCEMEAT

3. DEAD OUTLAW 

4. REAL WOMEN HAVE CURVES

and I think the fifth slot and the only one for obvious reason would not be nominated for Best Score and probably won’t get in for a weak book, but production wise, resonates with a lot of people:

5. BUENA VISTA SOCIAL CLUB
 

If there would be a sixth slot, these three shows would be duking it out, and based on a somewhat strong score that can can get the fifth slot in Best Score and Best Book with an excellent production, the most like would be

6. DEATH BECOMES HER

and the next musicals in queue would be

7. Boop!
8. Just in Time

[ggersten]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 8:15pm

Is Old Friends considered a "new musical" or would it be a revived "special theatrical event" category? Not that it would be nominated after the NY reviews. 

[DCS]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 8:30pm

ggersten said: "Is Old Friends considered a "new musical" or would it be a revived "special theatrical event" category? Not that it would be nominated after the NY reviews."

It would very likely be considered as a Best Musical nominee. It's been a while, but you only have to go back to the 2013/2014 Season to find After Midnight nominated as Best Musical and that was also a revue.

[ggersten]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 8:36pm

I know revues have been nominated and won - but if the show had been better received, and given the competition, the producers might not have angled for a "special theatrical event" nomination/award. 

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 9:01pm

I predict the nominees will be:

Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat

With Boop! as the only serious potential swap.

[ChairinMain]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 9:45pm

I think your list is accurate - people aren't loosing their minds for "Just in Time" the way they would need to for that to break out of sixth place. I will say "Real Women Have Curves" is getting good buzz out of nowhere...I would not be shocked to see that pull an upset for a nom if the good word of mouth continues and good reviews follow. 

On a similar topic, do we think we will see four nominees for Revival, or will it be capped at three?

[DCS]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 10:31pm

On a similar topic, do we think we will see four nominees for Revival, or will it be capped at three?"

Since there are 6 eligible Musical Revivals, there should be 4 nominees (Mattress, Sunset, Gypsy, Last 5 Years, Floyd Collins, and Pirates)

[DaveyG]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 11:30pm

DCS said: "On a similar topic, do we think we will see four nominees for Revival, or will it be capped at three?"

Since there are 6 eligible Musical Revivals, there should be 4 nominees (Mattress, Sunset, Gypsy, Last 5 Years, Floyd Collins, and Pirates)"

Elf is also eligible.

Updated On: 4/9/25 at 11:30 PM

[DCS]

Posted: 4/9/25 at 11:57pm

DaveyG said: "DCS said: "On a similar topic, do we think we will see four nominees for Revival, or will it be capped at three?"

Since there are 6 eligible Musical Revivals, there should be 4 nominees (Mattress, Sunset, Gypsy, Last 5 Years, Floyd Collins, and Pirates)"

Elf is also eligible."

Correct, sorry I missed that one... still only means 4 nominees.  You don't get to 5 nominees unless you have 9 eligible shows. (Unless, of course there's a tie for that 4th nomination spot... then that 5th show would be added)

 

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/10/25 at 12:12am

Barring some crazy plot twist, I imagine the nominees for Revival will be Sunset, Gypsy, Pirates, and Mattress.

[The Other One]

Posted: 4/10/25 at 7:02am

bjh2114 said: "Barring some crazy plot twist, I imagine the nominees for Revival will be Sunset, Gypsy, Pirates, and Mattress."

Even without having seen it and despite the fact that several posters have expressed reasonable issues with the production, I'd be shocked if Floyd Collins wasn't one of the nominees.  

Updated On: 4/10/25 at 07:02 AM

[TylerJia]

Posted: 4/10/25 at 7:14am

Not necessarily my picks, but I can see these noms:

Musical
Operation Mincemeat
Dead Outlaw
Maybe Happy Ending
Death Becomes Her
Buena Vista Social Club

Revival
Sunset Blvd.
Gypsy
Pirates!
Floyd Collins

 

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/10/25 at 7:19am

The Other One said: "bjh2114 said: "Barring some crazy plot twist, I imagine the nominees for Revival will be Sunset, Gypsy, Pirates, and Mattress."

Even without having seen it and despite the fact that several posters have expressed reasonable issues with the production, I'd be shocked if Floyd Collins wasn't one of the nominees."

That's fair. I was operating under the assumption that it would be panned by the critics based on word of mouth here. But assuming it isn't, it'll probably take that fourth spot.

[theatergoer3]

Posted: 4/10/25 at 7:33am

I have not seen Pirates yet and I expect Floyd may get divisive reviews as it’s gotten on the board, but I’d vote it in and Jeremy. 

For Best Musical

Locks 

Maybe Happy Ending 

Operation Mincemeat 

Dead Outlaw (assuming it transfers well)

Next Tier

Death Becomes Her (well reviewed “blockbuster” musical)

Buena Vista Social Club (an audience/WOM favorite based off of my crowd with solid reviews)

Real Women Have Curves (seems to be the other WOM favorite)

Then Just in Time, Boop and Smash - well liked shows but with more mixed praise. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/10/25 at 10:44am

Are we so sure Operation Mincemeat is a lock? The response to it here was quite muted compared to its reception in London. Even the reviews marked as positive on Did They Like It mostly read as "it was fine." I think this could be the shocking omission in the top category. I too felt like it was just "fine." I was at a press performance and the crowd was politely clapping but no one losing their minds over it. And nearly everyone I talk to about it says something to the effect of "yeah, it was ok". Not exactly the type of passion that would make a voter put it at the top of their ballot. I think it definitely has a chance to miss Best Musical in favor of something like BOOP, Real Women Have Curves, or even Smash. All uplifting shows made by NYC talent/writers/producers. 

I'd say the only true locks are Maybe Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw.

Then Buena Vista Social Club is next in line (even though it likely misses book and director...the energy of the show is connecting with people and the reception was overwhelmingly positive).

Then Death Becomes Her (Might not actually win any Tonys, but its a proven crowd pleaser with a huge production, and will show up in a bunch of categories, prob gets into score and book).

Then it's Mincemeat vs. Real Women vs. BOOP vs. Smash for the final slot. (unless their is no consensus on the final slot which could see a tie and the addition of a 6th nominee. With such a small pool of voters, this is a common outcome).