Tony race for Best New Musical

[pacificnorthwest]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 12:43pm

My apologies if I'm doubling up on a thread. I've seen the subject discussed in various places but didn't see it as a specific topic. If I'm wrong, happy to be redirected there.

All that said, it feels like a tight season for Best New Musical and I'm wondering what people are thinking about the nominees and likely winner.

In that category, so far I've seen Maybe Happy Ending, Operation Mincemeat and Death Becomes Her. Right now my vote goes to MHE. And I predict it will stay that way even after I get to a few of the upcoming shows. But we'll see...

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 12:44pm

Death Becomes Her is not winning Best Musical.

[Ptero2]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 12:56pm

Feels like it'll be a two way race between Mincemeat in MHE to me. I personally think Dead Outlaw is going to have trouble attracting Broadway audiences and it's not gonna stand up to the two big critically loved (assuming here for Mincemeat) crowd pleasers. 

[pacificnorthwest]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 1:02pm

I agree, re: Death Becomes Her. 

Nevertheless, I thought it was highly enjoyable and really well done. Maybe awards for sets, lighting, costumes?

[bway1430]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 1:11pm

With double the number of new musicals opening between now and the Tony cutoff than are currently in the running, it is WAY to soon to even consider this as a serious question.

Will get back to you in late April. :-)

 

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 1:19pm

This was surely change, but I'm feeling this:

Best Musical: Maybe Happy Ending
Best Book: Operation Mincemeat
Best Score: Dead Outlaw

And I would even push Maybe Happy Ending for Best Orchestrations, but there's a part of me that feels like that's destined to go to Buena Vista for sheer accomplishment.

Yeah, it's really one of those years. I also feel like it's unfair for me to use last years Dead Outlaw as an indicator for how it will translate on Broadway. I really liked it but I don't know what types of changes they'll make, how it will translate on a larger stage etc. And with "Real Women Have Curves" coming, speaking too soon just feels stupid.

The only thing I feel is a LOCK (will die on this hill) is Jak Malone winning Best Featured Actor in a Musical. That's the juggernaut performance of that show and it rises above what I feel to be a "fine" musical.

Updated On: 3/3/25 at 01:19 PM

[bway1430]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 1:27pm

Falsettolands said: "This was surely change, but I'm feeling this:

Best Musical: Maybe Happy Ending
Best Book: Operation Mincemeat
Best Score: Dead Outlaw

And I would even push Maybe Happy Ending for Best Orchestrations, but there's a part of me that feels like that's destined to go to Buena Vista for sheer accomplishment.

Yeah, it's really one of those years. I also feel like it's unfair for me to use last years Dead Outlaw as an indicator for how it will translate on Broadway. I really liked it but I don't know what types of changes they'll make, how it will translate on a larger stage etc. And with "Real Women Have Curves" coming, speaking too soon just feels stupid.

The only thing I feel is a LOCK (will die on this hill) is Jak Malone winning Best Featured Actor in a Musical. That's the juggernaut performance of that show and it rises above what I feel to be a "fine" musical."

I think assuming SMASH and BOOP! are DOA would be unwise....both shows have had revisions since their respective workshops/tryouts and they have some folks in charge who know their craft so I think everything is still up for grabs as far as new musicals are concerned.....

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 1:29pm

There was some earlier discourse in this thread: https://forum.broadwayworld.com/thread/Operation-Mincemeat-vs-Maybe-Happy-Ending-Race-for-Best-Musical

I posted in that one but I mostly agree with Falsettolands, though I think book is a bit more up for grabs and my guess is director would lean towards Mincemeat

[JSquared2]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 1:46pm

Falsettolands said: "This was surely change, but I'm feeling this:

Best Musical: Maybe Happy Ending
Best Book: Operation Mincemeat
Best Score: Dead Outlaw

And I would even push Maybe Happy Ending for Best Orchestrations, but there's a part of me that feels like that's destined to go to Buena Vista for sheer accomplishment.

Yeah, it's really one of those years. I also feel like it's unfair for me to use last years Dead Outlaw as an indicator for how it will translate on Broadway. I really liked it but I don't know what types of changes they'll make, how it will translate on a larger stage etc. And with "Real Women Have Curves" coming, speaking too soon just feels stupid.

The only thing I feel is a LOCK (will die on this hill) is Jak Malone winning Best Featured Actor in a Musical. That's the juggernaut performance of that show and it rises above what I feel to be a "fine" musical."

 

I think David Thaxton (SUNSET) is WAY more likely to be remembered in this category and take the prize.

 

[getatme]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 2:19pm

Jak Malone seems the most likely win for Operation Mincemeat, but I'd hardly call it a lock. Burstein is doing really phenomenal work in Gypsy, Sieber is delivering musical comedy gold in Death Becomes Her, and there's still a handful of other shows that could give a featured actor a moment just as wonderful as Malone's.

I think the race for Best Musical will likely come down to Maybe Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw. There's a world where Mincemeat factors in, but I think Maybe Happy Ending will be seen as the little show that could, turned business around based on word of mouth and positive reviews and became a surprise hit and I think the Wing will want to reward that. I also think overall, it's a higher quality piece of theatre than Mincemeat.

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 2:24pm

getatme said: "Jak Malone seems the most likely win for Operation Mincemeat, but I'd hardly call it a lock. Burstein is doing really phenomenal work in Gypsy, Sieber is delivering musical comedy gold in Death Becomes Her, and there's still a handful of other shows that could give a featured actor a moment just as wonderful as Malone's."

 

Christopher Sieber is not winning a Tony for Death Becomes Her.

[kurtal]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 2:28pm

I think any of the following shows have a chance at a nomination right now:

Boop
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
Real Women Have Curves
Smash

I think MHE, OM, and DO have the strongest shots as of today, but it's way too soon to tell how any of the others will land.  Heck, even Just In Time could catch fire.  

I love that this season is as wide open as it is.  Makes for a fun season!

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 2:38pm

getatme said: "Jak Malone seems the most likely win for Operation Mincemeat, but I'd hardly call it a lock. Burstein is doing really phenomenal work in Gypsy, Sieber is delivering musical comedy gold in Death Becomes Her, and there's still a handful of other shows that could give a featured actor a moment just as wonderful as Malone's."

This seems to presume Malone only has "a" moment, but there's far more to his performance than the single song that is the show's emotional highpoint. He flawlessly embodies multiple characters, and at one point transitions from one back to his primary character onstage in front of the audience. He's present and has much more stagetime than most of the other contenders (including Sieber, who I dearly love but who has one big number, one short number, but is otherwise easily overlooked in a show that has pushed the emphasis from a three-person story to a two-person one). I really liked, without quite loving, Mincemeat, but if they get any wins, it should be that one. (Thaxton would be #2 of what I've seen, but if Malone rightly beat him at the Oliviers, I don't know why he wouldn't beat him at the Tonys.)

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 2:44pm

And frankly, I don't know if any of the other performances in Mincemeat are even nominated. Natasha Hodgson is killing it, but the Lead category is STACKED and she's doing something very specific and impressive, but it's not what's usually lauded or awarded any flowers.

[Sauja]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 2:58pm

I don't know which way things will go, but I do think it's a very EXCITING year for new musicals. I've seen and adored both Maybe Happy Ending and Operation Mincemeat. I also loved Buena Vista Social club and thought Death Becomes Her was a hoot. That would be a really rich line-up of nominees right there alone.

 

And that's without factoring in Boop, Smash, Real Women Have Curves, or Dead Outlaw, all of which I'm really excited for--especially Dead Outlaw, which I was so sad to miss downtown. 

 

We've had some duds this season, as in any, but the highs have been really high!

[BroadwayRox3588]

Posted: 3/3/25 at 3:55pm

I've been thinking for months that it would be a two-horse race between Maybe Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw. But with the positive buzz I'm hearing for Operation Mincemeat, that two-horse race may soon become a three-horse race.

I think the nominees will be:
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat