Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions — Page 2

Fred Mason said: "I think there’s a real chance that Marla Mindelle can win. We’ve been seeing this shtick for so long that it’s a little tired at this point, but you can’t deny it’s an inspired performance. I’d vote for her over Caissie Levy."

It's a parody of Celine Dion. It's fun and indeed a Schtick. Caissie is playing a character. And acting/singing the hell out of it.

Kad said: "theatrekid3302 said: "If Lost Boys looses Scenic Design it would be the “crime of the century”. Also don’t get why Cats is getting so many awards in these predictions. It doesn’t look like a Broadway Show."

How about you actually see the production?"

I will only see it if I can get it for cheap. I am not spending 200+ dollars on a show I am probably not going to enjoy. I'd rather spend that many on better things like SEEING RAGTIME AGAIN. Brilliant Production!!!!

Excited to see Schmigadoon soon, already have tickets. I think it will be good. Do I think it will be better than The Lost Boys? No, but we will see. The Lost Boys was breathtaking and exactly what Broadway needs: BIG EXPENSIVE PRODUCTIONS. It has the most momentum of the nominees the energy in that theatre was electric. I was at Two Strangers the other day and it was half empty and people were barely clapping.

Titanique i will probably see also but wish they would just make an actual adaptation of the movie already instead of a parody. Jack and Rose's love story would make such great music.

theatrekid3302 said: "Kad said: "theatrekid3302 said: "If Lost Boys looses Scenic Design it would be the “crime of the century”. Also don’t get why Cats is getting so many awards in these predictions. It doesn’t look like a Broadway Show."

How about you actually see the production?"

I will only see it if I can get it for cheap. I am not spending 200+ dollars on a show I am probably not going to enjoy. I'd rather spend that many on better things like SEEING RAGTIME AGAIN. Brilliant Production!!!!

Excited to see Schmigadoon soon, already have tickets. I think it will be good. Do I think it will be better than The Lost Boys? No, but we will see. The Lost Boys was breathtaking and exactly what Broadway needs: BIG EXPENSIVE PRODUCTIONS. It has the most momentum of the nominees the energy in that theatre was electric. I was at Two Strangers the other day and it was half empty and people were barely clapping.

Titanique i will probably see also but wish they would just make an actual adaptation of the movie already instead of a parody. Jack and Rose's love story would make such great music."

Your posts are getting more unhinged by the minute.

I have not seen any of the Best Musical nominees so I have no opinion on the shows (aside from having seen the Schnigadoon! TV series) themselves. But in terms of guessing a winner, I wonder whether certain things that usually don’t matter might this time.

On this thread, Schmigadoon! has emerged as the early favorite. Shoot, Apple is even promoting the original series again, highlighting all of its Tony nominations. (They could have renewed it for a third season, dammit.)

But doesn’t the show need to start performing better at the box office? Schmigadoon! is basically a parody of Golden Age musicals, which is amusing when you know what’s being parodied. Will the average theatergoer know shows that are all more than 65 years old?

This won’t matter if the competition is Two Strangers, which has been playing to two-thirds-full houses for months. But what if The Lost Boys takes off a bit? Not a huge hit, but bringing in $1.2 or $1.3 million per week. IfTwo Strangers or Schmigadoon! or Titanique doesn’t get a noticeable box office bump, won’t some voters think about The Lost Boys differently, because it would be the only show that even might be a hit?

Normally, I wouldn’t think any of that matters - and I am probably wrong, or my scenario won’t play out the way I described. But aren’t I describing how The Outsiders won?

Updated On: 5/8/26 at 11:36 PM

Ragtime has never won either Best Musical or Best Revival. I think Tony voters would want to give this show that honor by having this production win Best Revival.

I also agree that the Lost Boys is showing a lot of what made The Outsiders win and that is BUZZ. The Word of Mouth and Energy behind this production cannot be underestimated. The energy in that Theatre for Lost Boys was insane it just has Best Musical Energy. While, Two Strangers half the mezzanine was empty, it’s on TDF everyday, and people were barely clapping. The energy was just very different.


Schmigadoon, I have not seen yet but I do expect it to be good. I could see a world where that wins Best Musical but my money is on The Lost Boys. Titanique has no chance it’s a parody musical.

theatrekid3302 said: "Ragtime has never won either Best Musical or Best Revival. I think Tony voters would want to give this show that honor by having this production win Best Revival.

I am a Tony voter and absolutely do not think like that, nor is it some sort of groupthink process.

What does the package look like if Lost Boys wins? Musical/Score/techs, maybe featured actor? Best Director upset over Cats (a la Outsiders over Merrily)?

Ptero2 said: "What does the package look like if Lost Boys wins? Musical/Score/techs, maybe featured actor? Best Director upset over Cats (a la Outsiders over Merrily)?"

I don't think it needs Score or Director to win Best Musical. It would probably need either featured actor/actress as well as the techs to win. My feeling is this is going to be a split the baby year, where they award multiple productions awards. If it wins Director, we know it will most likely win Musical.

Updated On: 5/8/26 at 03:00 PM

I honestly think Lear dB has a better shot at taking director over Michael Arden. I will likely be the duo behind Cats TJB, though.

Amy Archer said: "I am a Tony voter and absolutely do not think like that, nor is it some sort of groupthink process."

Wow, I didn't think we'd have an actual Tony voter in our midst, do we know what the general stance is at this point.

Sutton Ross said: "Amy Archer said: "theatrekid3302 said: "Ragtime has never won either Best Musical or Best Revival. I think Tony voters would want to give this show that honor by having this production win Best Revival.

I am a Tony voter and absolutely do not think like that, nor is it some sort of groupthink process."

Thank you, I figured that. That poster has trashed shows they haven't even seen, so his opinion is completely moot."

Agreed—if you haven’t seen the show, your opinion on whether it should win or lose doesn’t really matter. Making strong statements that it would be an “utter disgrace” if Cats won without actually seeing the production just comes across as biased. That said, I do think Ragtime should win Best Revival. I saw Cats: The Jellicle Ball and thought it was terrible—but I actually saw it, so that opinion is based on the show itself, not just having a bias against it.

broadfan327 said: "Ptero2 said: "What does the package look like if Lost Boys wins? Musical/Score/techs, maybe featured actor? Best Director upset over Cats (a la Outsiders over Merrily)?"

I don't think it needs Score or Director to win Best Musical. It would probably need either featured actor/actress as well as the techs to win. My feeling is this is going to be a split the baby year, where they award multiple productions awards. If it wins Director, we know it will most likely win Musical."

Ehhhh. When is the last time something won without Book, Score, OR Director? I feel like if there’s enough love for it to get Musical, it’s almost definitely getting score too. Not like any of the others are undeniably above it in that category.

(but I’m still predicting Schmig FWIW)

''I just thought they wouldn't give BM to Schmigadoon! which is a limited run,''

''Schmigadoon!,'' set to run through Sept. 6, 2026, has now been extended through Jan. 3, 2027.

Updated On: 5/9/26 at 12:39 AM