Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions- Page 2

[goodtimes123]

Posted: 5/7/26 at 4:30pm

Fred Mason said: "I think there’s a real chance that Marla Mindelle can win. We’ve been seeing this shtick for so long that it’s a little tired at this point, but you can’t deny it’s an inspired performance. I’d vote for her over Caissie Levy."

It's a parody of Celine Dion. It's fun and indeed a Schtick. Caissie is playing a character. And acting/singing the hell out of it.

[goodtimes123]

Posted: 5/7/26 at 4:30pm

Fred Mason said: "I think there’s a real chance that Marla Mindelle can win. We’ve been seeing this shtick for so long that it’s a little tired at this point, but you can’t deny it’s an inspired performance. I’d vote for her over Caissie Levy."

It's a parody of Celine Dion. It's fun and indeed a Schtick. Caissie is playing a character. And acting/singing the hell out of it.

[theatrekid3302]

Posted: 5/7/26 at 4:48pm

Kad said: "theatrekid3302 said: "If Lost Boys looses Scenic Design it would be the “crime of the century”. Also don’t get why Cats is getting so many awards in these predictions. It doesn’t look like a Broadway Show."

How about you actually see the production?"

I will only see it if I can get it for cheap. I am not spending 200+ dollars on a show I am probably not going to enjoy. I'd rather spend that many on better things like SEEING RAGTIME AGAIN. Brilliant Production!!!!

Excited to see Schmigadoon soon, already have tickets. I think it will be good. Do I think it will be better than The Lost Boys? No, but we will see. The Lost Boys was breathtaking and exactly what Broadway needs: BIG EXPENSIVE PRODUCTIONS. It has the most momentum of the nominees the energy in that theatre was electric. I was at Two Strangers the other day and it was half empty and people were barely clapping. 

Titanique i will probably see also but wish they would just make an actual adaptation of the movie already instead of a parody. Jack and Rose's love story would make such great music. 

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 5/7/26 at 5:03pm

Here's the thing, again: Unless you have seen both shows, slamming Cats: The Jellicle Ball and saying it would be an "utter disgrace" if it won is pretty ridiculous. And I love Ragtime. 

[Matt Rogers]

Posted: 5/7/26 at 5:27pm

theatrekid3302 said: "Kad said: "theatrekid3302 said: "If Lost Boys looses Scenic Design it would be the “crime of the century”. Also don’t get why Cats is getting so many awards in these predictions. It doesn’t look like a Broadway Show."

How about you actually see the production?"

I will only see it if I can get it for cheap. I am not spending 200+ dollars on a show I am probably not going to enjoy. I'd rather spend that many on better things like SEEING RAGTIME AGAIN. Brilliant Production!!!!

Excited to see Schmigadoon soon, already have tickets. I think it will be good. Do I think it will be better than The Lost Boys? No, but we will see. The Lost Boys was breathtaking and exactly what Broadway needs: BIG EXPENSIVE PRODUCTIONS. It has the most momentum of the nominees the energy in that theatre was electric. I was at Two Strangers the other day and it was half empty and people were barely clapping.

Titanique i will probably see also but wish they would just make an actual adaptation of the movie already instead of a parody. Jack and Rose's love story would make such great music."

Your posts are getting more unhinged by the minute. 

[theatrekid3302]

Posted: 5/7/26 at 7:22pm

https://www.imdb.com/es/news/ni65827418/?ref_=nwc_art_perm

Even before the Tony nominations buzz, new musical The Lost Boys saw its highest grossing week yet, bringing in $1 million last week at the Palace Theatre.

Capacity dipped slightly to 85 percent, but it’s still promising for the musical, which co-leads the Tony nominations Tuesday alongside new musical Schmigadoon! While Schmigadoon! is in a much smaller theater and therefore with a lower gross potential, the show played to 75 percent capacity last week and brought in $646,129. Both may get further boosts from the Tonys and press campaigns moving forward.

Among the other top Tonys contenders, Death of a Salesman is still selling fairly strong, with $1.7 million last week and playing to 88 percent capacity, as is Ragtime, which brought in $1.1 million last week and played to 99 percent capacity, even after being open since the fall. Cats: The Jellicle Ball is still commanding strong attendance at 94 percent capacity, even as grosses fell slightly to $935,627.
 

[bear882]

Posted: 5/7/26 at 11:36pm

I have not seen any of the Best Musical nominees so I have no opinion on the shows (aside from having seen the Schnigadoon! TV series) themselves. But in terms of guessing a winner, I wonder whether certain things that usually don’t matter might this time.

On this thread, Schmigadoon! has emerged as the early favorite. Shoot, Apple is even promoting the original series again, highlighting all of its Tony nominations. (They could have renewed it for a third season, dammit.)

But doesn’t the show need to start performing better at the box office? Schmigadoon! is basically a parody of Golden Age musicals, which is amusing when you know what’s being parodied. Will the average theatergoer know shows that are all more than 65 years old? 

This won’t matter if the competition is Two Strangers, which has been playing to two-thirds-full houses for months. But what if The Lost Boys takes off a bit? Not a huge hit, but bringing in $1.2 or $1.3 million per week. IfTwo Strangers or Schmigadoon! or Titanique doesn’t get a noticeable box office bump, won’t some voters think about The Lost Boys differently, because it would be the only show that even might be a hit?

Normally, I wouldn’t think any of that matters - and I am probably wrong, or my scenario won’t play out the way I described. But aren’t I describing how The Outsiders won?

 

Updated On: 5/8/26 at 11:36 PM

[Dreamboy3]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 6:36am

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL:  should win: Jellicle Ball; will win: Ragtime

I am wondering if the love for Jellicle Ball - including from me—is overstating its odds for winning best revival. I loved both Jellicle Ball and Ragtime and agree with many who say the award should go the revival that is the most transformative and that is clearly Jellicle Ball. But would Ragtime appeal to a broader group of Tony voters (as opposed to those who post here)?

[theatrekid3302]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 7:25am

Ragtime has never won either Best Musical or Best Revival. I think Tony voters would want to give this show that honor by having this production win Best Revival.

I also agree that the Lost Boys is showing a lot of what made The Outsiders win and that is BUZZ. The Word of Mouth and Energy behind this production cannot be underestimated. The energy in that Theatre for Lost Boys was insane it just has Best Musical Energy. While, Two Strangers half the mezzanine was empty, it’s on TDF everyday, and people were barely clapping. The energy was just very different. 
 

Schmigadoon, I have not seen yet but I do expect it to be good. I could see a world where that wins Best Musical but my money is on The Lost Boys. Titanique has no chance it’s a parody musical.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 7:57am

I really think Shoshana can win, but Im surprise with people thinking DeShields can lose.

Also: Alden. So Little love for the show.

[Amy Archer]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 8:54am

theatrekid3302 said: "Ragtime has never won either Best Musical or Best Revival. I think Tony voters would want to give this show that honor by having this production win Best Revival.

I am a Tony voter and absolutely do not think like that, nor is it some sort of groupthink process.

[Matt Rogers]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 9:20am

theatrekid3302 said: "Ragtime has never won either Best Musical or Best Revival. I think Tony voters would want to give this show that honor by having this production win Best Revival.

I also agree that the Lost Boys is showing a lot of what made The Outsiders win and that is BUZZ. The Word of Mouth and Energy behind this production cannot be underestimated. The energy in that Theatre for Lost Boys was insane it just has Best Musical Energy. While, Two Strangers half the mezzanine was empty, it’s on TDF everyday, and people were barely clapping. The energy was just very different.


Schmigadoon, I have not seen yet but I do expect it to be good. I could see a world where that wins Best Musical but my money is on The Lost Boys. Titanique has no chance it’s a parody musical."

Why do you keep posting the same thing over and over again????

[Ptero2]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 11:00am

What does the package look like if Lost Boys wins? Musical/Score/techs, maybe featured actor? Best Director upset over Cats (a la Outsiders over Merrily)? 

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 2:40pm

Best Scenic Design of a Play:
David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon (Should/would win)

Absolutely! Korins should've had at least a couple of Tonys by now. He was the only designer on ''Hamilton'' NOT to win one. Korins won the Outer Critics and Drama Desk for ''Beetlejuice,'' but somehow lost the Tony. And he definitely deserved one for transforming the Broadway Theatre into a multi-level disco for ''Here Lies Love.'' I even recall his work on shows that didn't get a Tony nomination, like David Henry Hwang's ''Chinglish,'' which had an ingenious set that reminded me of a Chinese Rubik's Cube. Hope he wins for ''Dog Day''!

[broadfan327]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 3:00pm

Ptero2 said: "What does the package look like if Lost Boys wins? Musical/Score/techs, maybe featured actor? Best Director upset over Cats (a la Outsiders over Merrily)?"

I don't think it needs Score or Director to win Best Musical.  It would probably need either featured actor/actress as well as the techs to win.  My feeling is this is going to be a split the baby year, where they award multiple productions awards.  If it wins Director, we know it will most likely win Musical.

Updated On: 5/8/26 at 03:00 PM

[Kad]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 3:10pm

Considering Arden has won the category in 2 of the last 3 ceremonies, I really doubt he’ll win again. In that category at least- he’ll likely pick up a win for lighting design.  

[theblackumbrella]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 4:04pm

I honestly think Lear dB has a better shot at taking director over Michael Arden. I will likely be the duo behind Cats TJB, though.

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 4:37pm

Amy Archer said: "theatrekid3302 said: "Ragtime has never won either Best Musical or Best Revival. I think Tony voters would want to give this show that honor by having this production win Best Revival.

I am a Tony voter and absolutely do not think like that, nor is it some sort of groupthink process."

Thank you, I figured that. That poster has trashed shows they haven't even seen, so his opinion is completely moot.

[malcs98]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 6:04pm

Amy Archer said: "I am a Tony voter and absolutely do not think like that, nor is it some sort of groupthink process."

Wow, I didn't think we'd have an actual Tony voter in our midst, do we know what the general stance is at this point. 

[Kad]

Posted: 5/8/26 at 6:41pm

malcs98 said: "Amy Archer said: "I am a Tony voter and absolutely do not think like that, nor is it some sort of groupthink process."

Wow, I didn't think we'd have an actual Tony voter in our midst, do we know what the general stance is at this point."

There are 800+ voters. There is no way they have a general stance.