Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions — Page 5

What I find interesting is how many awards Ragtime won during the Drama Desk. Yes, Cats was not eligible this year but it was elligible last year and it did not win a single award.

Ptero2 said: "theatrekid3302 said: "What I find interesting is how many awards Ragtime won during the Drama Desk. Yes, Cats was not eligible this year but it was elligible last year and it did not win a single award."

If you can see a week into the future to know who won the Drama Desks, why not just tell us who won the Tony's?"

I mean the Outer Critics Circle Awards

theatrekid3302 said: "Ptero2 said: "theatrekid3302 said: "What I find interesting is how many awards Ragtime won during the Drama Desk. Yes, Cats was not eligible this year but it was elligible last year and it did not win a single award."

If you can see a week into the future to know who won the Drama Desks, why not just tell us who won the Tony's?"

I mean the Outer Critics Circle Awards"

Cats won best revival and featured actor at the OCC Awards last year.

Ptero2 said: "theatrekid3302 said: "Ptero2 said: "theatrekid3302 said: "What I find interesting is how many awards Ragtime won during the Drama Desk. Yes, Cats was not eligible this year but it was elligible last year and it did not win a single award."

If you can see a week into the future to know who won the Drama Desks, why not just tell us who won the Tony's?"

I mean the Outer Critics Circle Awards"

Cats won best revival and featured actor at the OCC Awards last year."

Not Drama Desk it didn’t win anything. I confused the awards just won for being the Drama Desk when it was actually the Outer Critics but it is true they didn’t win a single drama desk last year.

chrishuyen said: "Matt Rogers said: "That personis quickly becoming one of the most ridiculous posters on this site - plastering mistruths (lies) all over the place, repeating the same point fifteen million times, spilling every single plot point from various shows, trashing shows he hasn’t seen. It’s becoming quite pathetic."

It's clearly BroadwayFlash again"

What I find ridiculous is how out of touch the people on this thread are with the average Broadway consumer. What you find “innovative” and “original” people who only go to 1-2 shows a year won’t like spending money on something that doesn’t feel worth it. Two Strangers just is too simple and too dull for that type of theatre goer. I heard a lot of comments in the theatre when I went.

What I also find ridiculous is how I am bashed for bashing shows but a lot of people on this thread say really unwarranted and nasty things about shows as well. Just look at what happened to Queen of Versailles and Kristen Chenoweth she was bashed and counted out BEFORE THE SHOW EVEN OPENED because of comments she made. You all decided it was terrible and she was terrible before they even opened. The reviews in Boston were great but then when it opened on Broadway now it’s terrible. Come on now!! Kristen Chenoweth is one of the best performers to ever grace the Broadway stage and how she was treated was disgraceful. Queen of Versailles was much better than Two Strangers that’s for sure. She was robbed of a Tony Nomination and so was Lea Michele who is also very unfairly treated. How is it that Chess wasn’t nominated for Best Revival and Cats was?? Chess was fantastic and some of the best vocals you will ever hear on Broadway IT DESERVED TO BE NOMINATED

Updated On: 5/11/26 at 06:13 PM

theatrekid3302 said: "chrishuyen said: "Matt Rogers said: "That personis quickly becoming one of the most ridiculous posters on this site - plastering mistruths (lies) all over the place, repeating the same point fifteen million times, spilling every single plot point from various shows, trashing shows he hasn’t seen. It’s becoming quite pathetic."

It's clearly BroadwayFlash again"

What I find ridiculous is how out of touch the people on this thread are with the average Broadway consumer. What you find “innovative” and “original” people who only go to 1-2 shows a year won’t like spending money on something that doesn’t feel worth it. Two Strangers just is too simple and too dull for that type of theatre goer. I heard a lot of comments in the theatre when I went.

What I also find ridiculous is how I am bashed for bashing shows but a lot of people on this thread say really unwarranted and nasty things about shows as well. Just look at what happened to Queen of Versailles and Kristen Chenoweth she was bashed and counted out BEFORE THE SHOW EVEN OPENED because of comments she made. You all decided it was terrible and she was terrible before they even opened. The reviews in Boston were great but then when it opened on Broadway now it’s terrible. Come on now!! Kristen Chenoweth is one of the best performers to ever grace the Broadway stage and how she was treated was disgraceful. Queen of Versailles was much better than Two Strangers that’s for sure. She was robbed of a Tony Nomination and so was Lea Michele who is also very unfairly treated. How is it that Chess wasn’t nominated for Best Revival and Cats was?? Chess was fantastic and some of the best vocals you will ever hear on Broadway IT DESERVED TO BE NOMINATED"

You need to find a better way of getting your points across. I agree with a lot of what you are saying and have said similar things about Two Strangers being lackluster and Lost Boys deserving the Best Musical nomination. I also did enjoy Queen of Versailles and thought it was unfairly treated. That said, you sound like Donald Trump you need to tone it down a bit and not be so extreme in your criticisms and responses to people. Yeah I didn’t like Cats either but it’s not an “utter disgrace” saying that is just unfairly bashing a production you haven’t even seen.

theatrekid3302 said: "Matt Rogers said: "theatrekid3302 said: "chrishuyen said: "Matt Rogers said: "That personis quickly becoming one of the most ridiculous posters on this site - plastering mistruths (lies) all over the place, repeating the same point fifteen million times, spilling every single plot point from various shows, trashing shows he hasn’t seen. It’s becoming quite pathetic."

It's clearly BroadwayFlash again"

What I find ridiculous is how out of touch the people on this thread are with the average Broadway consumer. What you find “innovative” and “original” people who only go to 1-2 shows a year won’t like spending money on something that doesn’t feel worth it. Two Strangers just is too simple and too dull for that type of theatre goer. I heard a lot of comments in the theatre when I went.

What I also find ridiculous is how I am bashed for bashing shows but a lot of people on this thread say really unwarranted and nasty things about shows as well. Just look at what happened to Queen of Versailles and Kristen Chenoweth she was bashed and counted out BEFORE THE SHOW EVEN OPENED because of comments she made. You all decided it was terrible and she was terrible before they even opened. The reviews in Boston were great but then when it opened on Broadway now it’s terrible. Come on now!! Kristen Chenoweth is one of the best performers to ever grace the Broadway stage and how she was treated was disgraceful. Queen of Versailles was much better than Two Strangers that’s for sure. She was robbed of a Tony Nomination and so was Lea Michele who is also very unfairly treated. How is it that Chess wasn’t nominated for Best Revival and Cats was?? Chess was fantastic and some of the best vocals you will ever hear on Broadway IT DESERVED TO BE NOMINATED"

LOL. You just outed yourself, babe. If you’re defending Queen of Versailles, you are most definitely Broadway Flash. I’m ashamed of myself for not recognizing it sooner."

I don’t know who Broadway Flash is and have never even seen that user on this thread before. More than one person can defend Queen of Versailles it was a great show. Maybe look outside your bubble once in a while. Everyone on here just has the same opinion of what’s good and what’s bad and whoever disagrees is branded as crazy."

Sure thing, Flash. Sure thing.

“Ragtime will win the revival category” - CBS News Mornings

https://youtu.be/QxaGu7u69Jk?si=dpiPDW4KMVd-SXQ6

WiCkEDrOcKS said: "Elphaba2019 said: "
Right now Golden Derby is predicting a Schmigadoon and Cats: The Jellicle Ball win. Caissie Levy seems very likely to winBest Actress with an 83% chance. Joshua Henry seems like a lock for Best Actor with a 93% chance. Does not list predictions for Featured Actress which I was interested in but I am predicting Shoshana will likely take that.

https://www.goldderby.com/theater/2026/2026-tonys-odds-analysis-schmigadoon-liberation/"

Predictions in all categories are HERE."

Shoshana with a 65% chance while Nichelle Lewis is at a 26% chance. All others are far behind. Seems like this is Shoshana’s to loose but Nichelle Lewis does have a chance at pulling an upset.


My prediction is Lost Boys will win Scenic Design, Lighting Design, and Featured Actress. Schmigadoon will win Best Book and Orchestrations. Best Musical is a toss-up and could go either way.

PipingHotPiccolo said: "Just looking the play side:

Playwill be Liberation, gotta be right? I havent seen Giant yet but the Pulitzer sealed the deal there.

Revivalwill be Salesman, no question. And Mantello, surely, deserves the credit for this sensation.

Actresslooks like it will be Manville, though if it were up to me, Id probably give it to Coon.Supporting Actresswill be Metcalf, and she was great, but I can see a swell for June Squibb in the right circumstance. Id personally give it to Aidem.

I guess the real race on the play side is the actors.Actorwill be either Lane or Lithgow and I really see no reason to think one has more lift than the other.Supporting Actori thought was surely going to Ehrenreich, which makes sense to me, but I keep hearing that the Salesman love will carry the day for Abbott, which is certainly deserved.

"
Gold Derby gave Lithgow a 70% so my moneys on him but I could see a world where Nathan Lane ends up winning. Gold Derby has been wrong in the past.

Elphaba2019 said: "WiCkEDrOcKS said: "Elphaba2019 said: "
Right now Golden Derby is predicting a Schmigadoon and Cats: The Jellicle Ball win. Caissie Levy seems very likely to winBest Actress with an 83% chance. Joshua Henry seems like a lock for Best Actor with a 93% chance. Does not list predictions for Featured Actress which I was interested in but I am predicting Shoshana will likely take that.

https://www.goldderby.com/theater/2026/2026-tonys-odds-analysis-schmigadoon-liberation/"

Predictions in all categories are HERE."

Shoshana with a 65% chance while Nichelle Lewis is at a 26% chance. All others are far behind. Seems like this is Shoshana’s to loose but Nichelle Lewis does have a chance at pulling an upset.


My prediction is Lost Boys will win Scenic Design, Lighting Design, and Featured Actress. Schmigadoon will win Best Book and Orchestrations. Best Musical is a toss-up and could go either way."

Schmigadoon’s book was all over the place. Honestly could see this one going to Titanique.

PipingHotPiccolo said: "Just looking the play side:

Playwill be Liberation, gotta be right? I havent seen Giant yet but the Pulitzer sealed the deal there.

Revivalwill be Salesman, no question. And Mantello, surely, deserves the credit for this sensation.

Actresslooks like it will be Manville, though if it were up to me, Id probably give it to Coon.Supporting Actresswill be Metcalf, and she was great, but I can see a swell for June Squibb in the right circumstance. Id personally give it to Aidem.

I guess the real race on the play side is the actors.Actorwill be either Lane or Lithgow and I really see no reason to think one has more lift than the other.Supporting Actori thought was surely going to Ehrenreich, which makes sense to me, but I keep hearing that the Salesman love will carry the day for Abbott, which is certainly deserved.

I feel like Liberation for Best Play, Salesman for Revival, and Lesley Manville for Best Actress are the closest things we have to locks this season.

Lithgow and Lane will be a coin-toss, as will Featured Actor -- if there's a Salesman sweep it could go down-ballot entirely, though Ehrenreich is a deserving debut and perhaps the only time that this outstanding new production of Becky Shaw has at a win.

And I'd say the safe bet is Metcalf for Featured, though there are a number of possible spoilers, particularly if Liberation gets a lot of love.

"

Best play will not be the only category that LIBERATION wins. It could also very well win costume design, and/or even pull off a direction shocker over Mantello.