Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions

So now that we have our TONY nominees this year, its not too early start picking and predicting who's gonna win this year so here is my very initial thoughts on who I believe is going to be the front runner in each category...keep in mind this list will definitely change as we get closer to Tony Sunday

Best Play - Liberation

Best Musical - Schmigadoon!

Best Revival of a Play - Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Best Revival of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical - Caissie Levy, Ragtime

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play - John Lithgow, Giant 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play - Susannah Flood, Liberation

Best Book of a Musical - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) by Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre - Schmigadoon! (Music & Lyrics: Cinco Paul)

Best Scenic Design of a Play - Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Costume Design of a Play - Paul Tazewell, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Best Costume Design of a Musical - Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Lighting Design of a Play - Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Best Lighting Design of a Musical - Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

Best Sound Design of a Play - Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Best Sound Design of a Musical - Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Direction of a Play - Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Best Direction of a Musical - Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Choreography - Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Orchestrations  - Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play - Betsy Aidem, Liberation

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play - Ruben Santiago-Hudson, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical - Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical - Andre De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

 

Updated On: 5/7/26 at 12:30 AM

Best Musical - Schmigadoon!
Best Play - Liberation
Best Revival of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Revival of a Play - Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime 
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical - Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play - Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman 
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play - Leslie Manville, Oedipus
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play - Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman 
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play - Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical - Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical - Andre De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball


Best Book of a Musical - Schmigadoon!  by Cinco Paul
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre - Schmigadoon! (Music & Lyrics: Cinco Paul)

Best Direction of a Play - Robert Icke, Oedipus
Best Direction of a Musical - Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball


Best Scenic Design of a Play - David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon 
Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys

Best Costume Design of a Play - Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels 
Best Costume Design of a Musical - Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Lighting Design of a Play - Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Lighting Design of a Musical - Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

Best Sound Design of a Play - Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Sound Design of a Musical - Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Choreography - Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Orchestrations  - Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Andre de Shields getting a Tony for THAT performance would be something, alright... I feel like someone else will emerge but it's so hard to say who. 

theatrekid3302 said: "If Lost Boys looses Scenic Design it would be the “crime of the century”. Also don’t get why Cats is getting so many awards in these predictions. It doesn’t look like a Broadway Show."

How about you actually see the production? 

Best Play - Liberation

It may be closed, but it's the only play here with really strong, vocal support.

Best Musical - Schmigadoon

I think Schmigadoon's old school musical comedy charms and sendup will prevail with a rattled, nervous industry over the smaller-scale Two Strangers, which may be the only truly original of the nominees but seems to struggle to translate being well-liked into broad support. I think being the very early, de facto presumptive favorite has somewhat worked against it. Lost Boys could swoop in as a spoiler, but its technical aspects are what a lot of people seem to be taking away from it- and it should be duly awarded for those. 

Best Revival of a Play - Death of a Salesman

Best Revival of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Jellicle Ball had an uphill climb to prove itself to a skeptical public and succeeded in spades. This reinvention is truly a feat, which doesn't diminish Ragtime's power as a very good, but conventional take, production. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical - Joshua Henry

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical - Caissie Levy

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play - Nathan Lane

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play - Lesley Manville

Best Book of a Musical - Schmigadoon

It's a witty, funny book and voters tend to like that. 

Best Original Score  - Two Strangers

Two Strangers benefits from being an original score. I think Schmigadoon's pastiche-heavy (sometimes leaning into straight-out parody) score works against it here. 

Best Scenic Design of a Play - Dog Day Afternoon

Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Lost Boys

Best Costume Design of a Play - Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Best Costume Design of a Musical - Jellicle Ball

Double nominee Qween Jean may end up a double winner, but at the very least she will likely take this home. (And I believe make history as the first trans designer to win a Tony?)

Best Lighting Design of a Play -  Death of a Salesman

Best Lighting Design of a Musical -  The Lost Boys

Best Sound Design of a Play - Death of a Salesman

Best Sound Design of a Musical - Lost Boys

Best Direction of a Play - Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman

Best Direction of a Musical - Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Choreography - Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Orchestrations  - Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

I suspect if Cats' reinvention is being rewarded, it will extend even here. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play - Laurie Metcalf

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play - Alden Ehrenreich

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical - Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

A weaker category than expected in many ways. Bean may persevere here and she certainly seems like the strongest positioned for a win, at last clinching her Tony- a good narrative for a nominee in an up-for-grabs category. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical - Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime

A tossup category here- I could really see anyone other than Pinkham winning, really. I can see Ross riding love for Ragtime- which may very well only be otherwise taking home the leading performance awards and voters may want to recognize it further- to a win. 

Updated On: 5/7/26 at 11:09 AM

Best Musical - Schmigadoon!
Best Play - Liberation
Best Revival of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Revival of a Play - Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime 
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical - Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play - Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman 
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play - Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play - Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman 
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play - Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical - Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical - Layton Williams, Titaníque
Best Book of a Musical - Titaníque
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Best Direction of a Play - Whitney White, Liberation
Best Direction of a Musical - Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Scenic Design of a Play - David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon 
Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Costume Design of a Play - Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels 
Best Costume Design of a Musical - Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Lighting Design of a Play - Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Lighting Design of a Musical - Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Best Sound Design of a Play - Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Sound Design of a Musical - Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Choreography - Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Orchestrations  - Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Updated On: 5/7/26 at 12:46 PM

While "Two Strangers" would be my personal pick (and I would love to see it win), I agree that it's Schmigadoon's to lose. Besides the aforementioned points, it's a homegrown product (vs a foreign import) with a large cast of Broadway favorites on and offstage. In a year without a consensus critical favorite, it seems like it has the most going for it to make it the popular choice. 

Kad said: "Double nominee Qween Jean may end up a double winner, but at the very least she will likely take this home. (And I believe make history as the first trans designer to win a Tony?)”

Correct. If Qween Jean wins either category they will be the first trans costume designer to win a Tony. 

rg7759 said: "I certainly hope casie Levi isn't a lock, no offense. U Just dont want to win with the, 'well, Timothy chalamet pissed us off' reasoning"

That wouldn't be the reasoning at all.  No one is saying that.  Many people think she's giving an incredible performance and deserves to win.  

rg7759 said: "I certainly hope casie Levi isn't a lock, no offense. U Just dont want to win with the, 'well, Timothy chalamet pissed us off' reasoning"

The woman's name is Caissie Levy and Timothee Chalamet's dumb comments have nothing to do with theater. He does not matter in any theater, ballet, or opera space. And you should probably check out Ragtime's tiny desk concert  if you have any doubt of her talent. It's extraordinary as is every single person in the cast. 

Ragtime should win for Best Revival, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor. 

The Lost Boys should win for Best Supporting Actress, Scenic Design, and Lighting.

Two Strangers Carry a Cake Across New York should win Best Musical.

Schmigadoon! should win Best Choreography and Best Direction. 

Updated On: 5/7/26 at 03:41 PM

My point was to say isn't it a 2fer between her and pitts? Or is she really a lock is my question. The similarities w last year nicole

rg7759 said: "My point was to say isn't it a 2fer between her and pitts? Or is she really a lock is my question. The similarities w last year nicole"

I think if anyone is a potential spoiler, it’s Mindelle, not Pitts. 

Fred Mason said: "I think there’s a real chance that Marla Mindelle can win. We’ve been seeing this shtick for so long that it’s a little tired at this point, but you can’t deny it’s an inspired performance. I’d vote for her over Caissie Levy."

It's a parody of Celine Dion. It's fun and indeed a Schtick. Caissie is playing a character. And acting/singing the hell out of it.