Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#1
Posted: 5/7/26 at 12:30am
So now that we have our TONY nominees this year, its not too early start picking and predicting who's gonna win this year so here is my very initial thoughts on who I believe is going to be the front runner in each category...keep in mind this list will definitely change as we get closer to Tony Sunday
Best Play - Liberation
Best Musical - Schmigadoon!
Best Revival of a Play - Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Revival of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical - Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play - John Lithgow, Giant
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play - Susannah Flood, Liberation
Best Book of a Musical - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) by Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre - Schmigadoon! (Music & Lyrics: Cinco Paul)
Best Scenic Design of a Play - Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Costume Design of a Play - Paul Tazewell, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Best Costume Design of a Musical - Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Lighting Design of a Play - Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Lighting Design of a Musical - Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Best Sound Design of a Play - Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Sound Design of a Musical - Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Direction of a Play - Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Direction of a Musical - Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Choreography - Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Orchestrations - Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play - Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play - Ruben Santiago-Hudson, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical - Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical - Andre De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#2
Posted: 5/7/26 at 12:55am
My predictions so far
Best Play - Liberation
Best Musical - Lost Boys
Best Revival of a Play - Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Revival of a Musical - Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical - Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play - John Lithgow, Giant
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play - Susannah Flood, Liberation
Best Book of a Musical - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) by Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre - Schmigadoon! (Music & Lyrics: Cinco Paul)
Best Scenic Design of a Play - Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
Best Costume Design of a Play - Paul Tazewell, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Best Costume Design of a Musical - Linda Cho, Ragtime
Best Lighting Design of a Play - Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Lighting Design of a Musical - Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Best Sound Design of a Play - Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Sound Design of a Musical -Brian Ronan, Richard O’ Brian’s Rocky Horror Show
Best Direction of a Play - Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Direction of a Musical - Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Best Choreography - Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Best Orchestrations - Brian Usifer, Chess
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play - Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play - Ruben Santiago-Hudson, August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical - Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical - Andre De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#3
Posted: 5/7/26 at 12:57am
Best Musical - Schmigadoon!
Best Play - Liberation
Best Revival of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Revival of a Play - Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical - Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play - Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play - Leslie Manville, Oedipus
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play - Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play - Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical - Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical - Andre De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Book of a Musical - Schmigadoon! by Cinco Paul
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre - Schmigadoon! (Music & Lyrics: Cinco Paul)
Best Direction of a Play - Robert Icke, Oedipus
Best Direction of a Musical - Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Scenic Design of a Play - David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
Best Costume Design of a Play - Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Best Costume Design of a Musical - Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Lighting Design of a Play - Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Lighting Design of a Musical - Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Best Sound Design of a Play - Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Sound Design of a Musical - Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Choreography - Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Orchestrations - Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#4
Posted: 5/7/26 at 7:08am
If Lost Boys looses Scenic Design it would be the “crime of the century”. Also don’t get why Cats is getting so many awards in these predictions. It doesn’t look like a Broadway Show.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#5
Posted: 5/7/26 at 9:13am
Andre de Shields getting a Tony for THAT performance would be something, alright... I feel like someone else will emerge but it's so hard to say who.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#6
Posted: 5/7/26 at 9:19am
Ptero2 said: "Andre de Shields getting a Tony for THAT performance would be something, alright... I feel like someone else will emerge but it's so hard to say who."
The Tonys relationship to him is so weird. They ignored all of his earlier work (not giving him his first nomination until he was in his 50s). Now they suddenly can't stop rewarding him, likely giving him 2 Tonys for 2 of his weakest performances.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#7
Posted: 5/7/26 at 9:42am
theatrekid3302 said: "If Lost Boys looses Scenic Design it would be the “crime of the century”. Also don’t get why Cats is getting so many awards in these predictions. It doesn’t look like a Broadway Show."
How about you actually see the production?
Chorus Member Joined: 3/13/25
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#8
Posted: 5/7/26 at 10:18am
Agree with the above posters on the big four --
Best Musical: Schmigadoon!
Best Play: Liberation
Best Revival of a Musical: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Revival of a Play: Death of a Salesman
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#9
Posted: 5/7/26 at 11:09am
Best Play - Liberation
It may be closed, but it's the only play here with really strong, vocal support.
Best Musical - Schmigadoon
I think Schmigadoon's old school musical comedy charms and sendup will prevail with a rattled, nervous industry over the smaller-scale Two Strangers, which may be the only truly original of the nominees but seems to struggle to translate being well-liked into broad support. I think being the very early, de facto presumptive favorite has somewhat worked against it. Lost Boys could swoop in as a spoiler, but its technical aspects are what a lot of people seem to be taking away from it- and it should be duly awarded for those.
Best Revival of a Play - Death of a Salesman
Best Revival of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Jellicle Ball had an uphill climb to prove itself to a skeptical public and succeeded in spades. This reinvention is truly a feat, which doesn't diminish Ragtime's power as a very good, but conventional take, production.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical - Joshua Henry
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical - Caissie Levy
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play - Nathan Lane
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play - Lesley Manville
Best Book of a Musical - Schmigadoon
It's a witty, funny book and voters tend to like that.
Best Original Score - Two Strangers
Two Strangers benefits from being an original score. I think Schmigadoon's pastiche-heavy (sometimes leaning into straight-out parody) score works against it here.
Best Scenic Design of a Play - Dog Day Afternoon
Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Lost Boys
Best Costume Design of a Play - Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Best Costume Design of a Musical - Jellicle Ball
Double nominee Qween Jean may end up a double winner, but at the very least she will likely take this home. (And I believe make history as the first trans designer to win a Tony?)
Best Lighting Design of a Play - Death of a Salesman
Best Lighting Design of a Musical - The Lost Boys
Best Sound Design of a Play - Death of a Salesman
Best Sound Design of a Musical - Lost Boys
Best Direction of a Play - Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Direction of a Musical - Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Choreography - Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Orchestrations - Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
I suspect if Cats' reinvention is being rewarded, it will extend even here.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play - Laurie Metcalf
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play - Alden Ehrenreich
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical - Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
A weaker category than expected in many ways. Bean may persevere here and she certainly seems like the strongest positioned for a win, at last clinching her Tony- a good narrative for a nominee in an up-for-grabs category.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical - Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
A tossup category here- I could really see anyone other than Pinkham winning, really. I can see Ross riding love for Ragtime- which may very well only be otherwise taking home the leading performance awards and voters may want to recognize it further- to a win.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#10
Posted: 5/7/26 at 12:38pm
Wait ... almost everyone is guessing Schmigadoon?
I thought it was almost 100% certain it was Two Strangers?
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#11
Posted: 5/7/26 at 12:46pm
Best Musical - Schmigadoon!
Best Play - Liberation
Best Revival of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Revival of a Play - Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical - Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play - Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play - Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play - Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play - Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical - Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical - Layton Williams, Titaníque
Best Book of a Musical - Titaníque
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Best Direction of a Play - Whitney White, Liberation
Best Direction of a Musical - Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Scenic Design of a Play - David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Costume Design of a Play - Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Best Costume Design of a Musical - Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Lighting Design of a Play - Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Lighting Design of a Musical - Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Best Sound Design of a Play - Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman
Best Sound Design of a Musical - Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Choreography - Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Orchestrations - Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#12
Posted: 5/7/26 at 12:55pm
carlisle14 said: "Wait ... almost everyone is guessingSchmigadoon?
I thought it was almost 100% certain it was Two Strangers?"
Two Strangers was able to dominate the early conversation in the fall/winter because there was no competition. I think once the spring shows got going, people were happy to start looking at viable alternatives. Given that the slate of Best Musical nominees are all sort of at the same level in terms of response from critics and audiences, it makes it harder for Two Strangers to cruise to victory. It may very well still win, though. (I do think a win for Schmigadoon sends a signal that says, "We want big classic musical productions! Invest in them!" though)
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#13
Posted: 5/7/26 at 1:40pm
While "Two Strangers" would be my personal pick (and I would love to see it win), I agree that it's Schmigadoon's to lose. Besides the aforementioned points, it's a homegrown product (vs a foreign import) with a large cast of Broadway favorites on and offstage. In a year without a consensus critical favorite, it seems like it has the most going for it to make it the popular choice.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/26/03
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#14
Posted: 5/7/26 at 2:14pm
Schmigadoon has been my least favorite of the Best Musical nominees. I didn’t hate it, I just thought it was mildly enjoyable and cute enough while not quite being laugh out loud funny except for one or two one liners and elements that were clearly the actors rising above the material (McKenzie Kurtz and Ana Gasteyer in particular).
But it does seem like other folks enjoyed it more than I did & that it’s the current front runner.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#15
Posted: 5/7/26 at 2:24pm
Kad said: "Double nominee Qween Jean may end up a double winner, but at the very least she will likely take this home. (And I believe make history as the first trans designer to win a Tony?)”
Correct. If Qween Jean wins either category they will be the first trans costume designer to win a Tony.
Broadway Star Joined: 5/6/16
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#16
Posted: 5/7/26 at 2:54pm
I certainly hope casie Levi isn't a lock, no offense. U Just dont want to win with the, 'well, Timothy chalamet pissed us off' reasoning
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/14/04
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#17
Posted: 5/7/26 at 2:58pm
rg7759 said: "I certainly hope casie Levi isn't a lock, no offense. U Just dont want to win with the, 'well, Timothy chalamet pissed us off' reasoning"
That wouldn't be the reasoning at all. No one is saying that. Many people think she's giving an incredible performance and deserves to win.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#18
Posted: 5/7/26 at 3:05pm
rg7759 said: "I certainly hope casie Levi isn't a lock, no offense. U Just dont want to win with the, 'well, Timothy chalamet pissed us off' reasoning"
Even if this were remotely true, why would Chalamet's comments apply more to Caissie winning than anyone else?
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/20/13
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#19
Posted: 5/7/26 at 3:41pm
rg7759 said: "I certainly hope casie Levi isn't a lock, no offense. U Just dont want to win with the, 'well, Timothy chalamet pissed us off' reasoning"
The woman's name is Caissie Levy and Timothee Chalamet's dumb comments have nothing to do with theater. He does not matter in any theater, ballet, or opera space. And you should probably check out Ragtime's tiny desk concert if you have any doubt of her talent. It's extraordinary as is every single person in the cast.
Ragtime should win for Best Revival, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor.
The Lost Boys should win for Best Supporting Actress, Scenic Design, and Lighting.
Two Strangers Carry a Cake Across New York should win Best Musical.
Schmigadoon! should win Best Choreography and Best Direction.
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/13/04
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#20
Posted: 5/7/26 at 3:48pm
If the winners were announced today...
Best Musical:
The Lost Boys (Should win)
Schmigadoon! (Would win)
Best Play:
Liberation (Should/would win, but shout out to Little Bear Ridge Road, which I loved)
Best Revival of a Musical:
CATS: The Jellicle Ball (Should/would win)
Best Revival of a Play:
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Should/would win)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical:
Joshua Henry, Ragtime (Should/would win)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical:
Caissie Levy, Ragtime (Would win)
Marla Mindelle, Titanique (Should win)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play:
Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Should win)
John Lithgow, Giant (Would win)
Best Performance by an Actress in Leading Role in a Play:
Carrie Coon, Bug (Would win)
Susannah Flood, Liberation (Should win)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical:
Andre De Shields, CATS: The Jellicle Ball (Would win)
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime (Should win)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical:
Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys (Should/would win)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play:
Christopher Abbott, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Should/would win)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play:
Laurie Metcalf, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Should/would win)
Best Book of a Musical:
Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon! (Would win)
Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue, Titanique (Should win)
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre:
The Rescues, The Lost Boys (Should win)
Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) (Would win)
Best Scenic Design of a Play:
David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon (Should/would win)
Best Scenic Design of a Musical:
Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys (Should/would win)
Best Costume Design of a Play:
Qween Jean, Liberation (Should win)
Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels (Would win)
Best Costume Design of a Musical:
Qween Jean, CATS: The Jellicle Ball (Should/would win)
Best Lighting Design of a Play:
Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Should/would win)
Best Lighting Design of a Musical:
Adam Honoré, CATS: The Jellicle Ball (Should win)
Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys (Would win)
Best Sound Design of a Play:
Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Should/would win)
Best Sound Design of a Musical:
Kai Harada, CATS: The Jellicle Ball (Should win)
Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys (Would win)
Best Direction of a Play:
Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman (Should/would win)
Best Direction of a Musical:
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, CATS: The Jellicle Ball (Should/would win)
Best Choreography:
Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, CATS: The Jellicle Ball (Should/would win)
Best Orchestrations:
Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, CATS: The Jellicle Ball (Should win)
Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon! (Would win)
Broadway Star Joined: 5/6/16
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#21
Posted: 5/7/26 at 4:00pm
My point was to say isn't it a 2fer between her and pitts? Or is she really a lock is my question. The similarities w last year nicole
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#23
Posted: 5/7/26 at 4:10pm
rg7759 said: "My point was to say isn't it a 2fer between her and pitts? Or is she really a lock is my question. The similarities w last year nicole"
I think if anyone is a potential spoiler, it’s Mindelle, not Pitts.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#24
Posted: 5/7/26 at 4:11pm
I think there’s a real chance that Marla Mindelle can win. We’ve been seeing this shtick for so long that it’s a little tired at this point, but you can’t deny it’s an inspired performance. I’d vote for her over Caissie Levy.
Understudy Joined: 10/3/22
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#25
Posted: 5/7/26 at 4:30pm
Fred Mason said: "I think there’s a real chance that Marla Mindelle can win. We’ve been seeing this shtick for so long that it’s a little tired at this point, but you can’t deny it’s an inspired performance. I’d vote for her over Caissie Levy."
It's a parody of Celine Dion. It's fun and indeed a Schtick. Caissie is playing a character. And acting/singing the hell out of it.
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