Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions- Page 3
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions
Stand-by Joined: 5/19/20
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#50
Posted: 5/9/26 at 1:34am
Ragtime winning revival would be nuts. You can find the original on youtube - it's filled with brilliant directorial flourishes and design elements, the acting is naturalistic, complex and emotionally grounded. As a revival, the new production does absolutely nothing and is very cold and poorly paced. I didn't like Cats much better, though, because it is inarguably a worse piece of writing than Ragtime and I didn't feel like any changes helped overcome that. The chaotic aesthetic of the production made its meandering feel even more aimless to me. But the award isn't for the best show, it's for the best revival, and the new Cats is inventive, bold, looks fantastic, and is beautifully performed.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#51
Posted: 5/9/26 at 2:12am
Wayman_Wong said: "''I just thought they wouldn't give BM to Schmigadoon! which is a limited run,''
''Schmigadoon!,''set to run through Sept. 6, 2026, has now been extended through Jan. 3, 2027."
I wasn't aware. If the voters get passed it was pretty similar to the TV series, then it probably will win.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#52
Posted: 5/9/26 at 3:36am
I have been assuming all along that the conceptual brilliance of Cats: The Jellicle Ball would carry the day in Best Revival, and I still think it will.
But…
While I don’t like the book of Ragtime at all, I can’t ignore the admiration it gets from almost everyone but me. The revival doesn’t make anyone the slightest bit uncomfortable, even though it should, but maybe that partially explains its popularity. And it has some standout performances, even if they at times veer dangerously close to a concert instead of a musical.
Ragtime comforts the audience with its dignity and familiarity. Cats: The Jellice Ball mocks the rules of theater even before the show begins. It is deliberately messy and wild, and has its ups and downs along the way. I thought it worked marvelously overall, but I can imagine it feeling off-putting to some Tony voters.
And then there are the individual awards. It is expected to win Best Actor and Best Actress, and might even win in one of the featured categories. That’s a lot of big wins.
I still expect Cats: The Jellicle Ball to prevail, but I can imagine a situation where the show’s directors win but the ‘important’ and ‘timely’ Ragtime pulls off an upset.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#53
Posted: 5/9/26 at 9:32am
They are very different aspects what art celebrates. “Ragtime” is social, political, extremely now, and I think many people resonate with that especially because the Acting is superb (can it win 4 Acting Tonys?), but “Cats” is such a queer celebration, something is so close to the theater community that I also find hard to ignore, and unlikely “Ragtime”, This production put “Cats” upside down and we know thats the way voters are going.
Featured Actor Joined: 3/1/10
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#54
Posted: 5/9/26 at 12:10pm
Lost Boys = Best Musical
Ragtime = Best Musical Revival
Thats all.
(remember so many of the voters are American Theatre Wing)
Stand-by Joined: 5/19/20
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#55
Posted: 5/9/26 at 3:16pm
MadsonMelo said: "They are very different aspects what art celebrates. “Ragtime” is social, political, extremely now, and I think many people resonate with that especially because the Acting is superb (can it win 4 Acting Tonys?), but “Cats” is such a queer celebration, something is so close to the theater community that I also find hard to ignore, and unlikely “Ragtime”, This production put “Cats” upside down and we know thats the way voters are going."
I would dare to say that the singing is superb, not the acting, which mostly feels hammy and surface level. I also don't think Ragtime is "extremely now," it's been that way every time it's run on Broadway because the themes are timeless. Nothing about the choices in this production have made it more "of the moment," though it would lend itself quite well to reinterpretation in that way.
Broadway Legend Joined: 10/13/03
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#56
Posted: 5/10/26 at 9:10am
I thought Ragtime the strongest lock of this season ... and then I saw Jellicle. I went in with that awful arms-across-the-chest skepticism but by the intermission was in tears. I said to someone, and I'm owning my snootiness here, "It shouldn't work. It'll knock you back in your seat." It's a rare staging alone that remints a work, and this is that creature Broadway adores: a genuine surprise.. I wouldn't discount its success on Tony night. The company is filled with gifted people who were never destined to get to the Broadhurst Theatre, and so the poignant alchemy at work is something to behold.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#57
Posted: 5/10/26 at 10:59am
TWO STRANGERS should win. It's original and unique. Sadly, if it doesn't win Best Musical, it'll probably close at the end of June.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/26/03
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#58
Posted: 5/10/26 at 11:51am
Yeah I have to say…I didn’t love Ragtime. There were some great performances but it feels like a safe and surface level take on the subject matter.
I havent seen Cats yet but the mere act of creating a revival that specifically celebrates black queer culture feels a lot more “now” and novel than anything I saw in Ragtime.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#59
Posted: 5/10/26 at 3:36pm
ACL2006 said: "TWO STRANGERS should win. It's original and unique. Sadly, if it doesn't win Best Musical, it'll probably close at the end of June."
Probably the most boring musical I have ever seen. Some of the songs were good, but the set was a bore, and the cast consisting of only TWO PEOPLE made the story hard to follow and rather dull. Lost Boys and Schmigadoon were both fantastic and should be the main contenders for this award. I was at Schmigadoon yesterday, PACKED HOUSE, so much excitement. Same thing with the Lost Boys. For Two Strangers, the mezzanine was half empty and the audience was not that enthusiastic, mind you, that was the day of tony nomination announcements.
Between Lost Boys and Schmigadoon, I think Lost Boys should 100% win best musical it was breathtaking the scenic design, the flying, i think the storyline was great, music was great. Both of these shows have what we have been seeing less and less of on Broadway for years SPECTACLE. Both are expensive lavish productions with costumes, a large set, powerful vocals. That will be the story for whoever wins.
Schmigadoon specifically would be a signal that we miss the classics we want feel good musicals again. WE WANT BROADWAY.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/26/03
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#60
Posted: 5/10/26 at 4:01pm
I think it’d be such a bummer if something wins Best Musical because it’s a big flashy musical adapted from a movie, or a barely new musical that’s basically a TV show on stage.
I’m rooting for Two Strangers or Titanique. New, young writers, scrappier shows ftw. I don’t care how expensive the set is.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#61
Posted: 5/10/26 at 4:10pm
BroadwayGirl107 said: "I think it’d be such a bummer if something wins Best Musical because it’s a big flashy musical adapted from a movie, or a barely new musical that’s basically a TV show on stage.
I’m rooting for Two Strangers or Titanique. New, young writers, scrappier shows ftw. I don’t care how expensive the set is."
Titanique is not even a real musical, and why on earth should Two Strangers win only because its "new". This thread is so out of touch with the average broadway consumer and is the reason broadway is going downhill. People want to see their money they want to go to a show and say WOW THAT WAS WORTH IT. People want big and flashy, THAT'S BROADWAY. A real bummer would be if Two Strangers and Cats won Best Musical and Best Revival because they are "new" when they are up against clearly better shows.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#62
Posted: 5/10/26 at 4:22pm
Wayman_Wong said: "''I just thought they wouldn't give BM to Schmigadoon! which is a limited run,''
''Schmigadoon!,''set to run through Sept. 6, 2026, has now been extended through Jan. 3, 2027."
Wayman, you should (and probably DO) know better -- "extended" only means that they've put tickets on sale until that date. They could still post closing on Monday. It'll run at least through the Tonys -- but if you look at ANY date on the show's ticketing site, there are a lot of unsold seats!
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#63
Posted: 5/10/26 at 4:26pm
JSquared2 said: "Wayman_Wong said: "''I just thought they wouldn't give BM to Schmigadoon! which is a limited run,''
''Schmigadoon!,''set to run through Sept. 6, 2026, has now been extended through Jan. 3, 2027."
Wayman, you should (and probably DO) know better -- "extended" only means that they've put tickets on sale until that date. They could still post closing on Monday. It'll run at least through the Tonys -- but if you look at ANYdate on the show's ticketing site, there are a lotof unsold seats!
"
When i went every seat was taken. I am sure they make a lot off of same-day ticket sales / rush.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#64
Posted: 5/10/26 at 4:41pm
theatrekid3302 said: " This thread is so out of touch with the average broadway consumer and is the reason broadway is going downhill.."
This thread is about Tony award predictions, not what you think should win.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#65
Posted: 5/10/26 at 4:59pm
Kad said: "theatrekid3302 said: "This thread is so out of touch with the average broadway consumer and is the reason broadway is going downhill.."
This thread is about Tony award predictions,not what you think should win."
Um, that is a Tony Award prediction. I PREDICT Lost Boys will win the Tony because it is by far the best show of the season. The only other viable option is Schmigadoon, which was also great, but The Lost Boys was at another level.
I predict that RAGTIME will win the Tony Award for Best Revival because I think the Tony Award voters are smart enough to see that Ragtime is clearly better than Cats: The Jellicle Ball, which has made a mockery of Cats and doesn't even have cats in it anymore, yet the lyrics still suggest their cats. And I've listened to Tempress singing Memory; she did not sound good, no wonder she didn't get a Tony nomination. This is a fashion show, not a Broadway musical. It is a travesty that Chess was not nominated for Best Revival what a great show that was!! with some incredible vocals. But who knows the Tony voters have been known to make idiotic decisions like Avenue Q winning against Wicked. How is that even possible? A PUPPET SHOW over WICKED! Give me a break!
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#66
Posted: 5/10/26 at 5:10pm
theatrekid3302 said: "Kad said: "theatrekid3302 said: "This thread is so out of touch with the average broadway consumer and is the reason broadway is going downhill.."
This thread is about Tony award predictions,not what you think should win."
Um, that is a Tony Award prediction. I PREDICT Lost Boys will win the Tony because it is by far the best show of the season. The only other viable option is Schmigadoon, which was also great, but The Lost Boys was at another level.
I predict that RAGTIME will win the Tony Award for Best Revival because I think the Tony Award voters are smart enough to see that Ragtime is clearly better than Cats: The Jellicle Ball, which has made a mockery of Cats and doesn't even have cats in it anymore, yet the lyrics still suggest their cats. And I've listened to Tempress singing Memory; she did not sound good, no wonder she didn't get a Tony nomination. This is a fashion show, not a Broadway musical. It is a travesty that Chess was not nominated for Best Revival what a great show that was!! with some incredible vocals. But who knows the Tony voters have been known to make idiotic decisions like Avenue Q winning against Wicked. How is that even possible? A PUPPET SHOW over WICKED! Give me a break!"
I honestly just don’t see any of your points.
How is Lost Boys “by far” the best musical of the season. I was extremely disappointed by it. Two Strangers has a tuneful score. Is charming and sweet. Snappy direction of a smart set. Lost Boys is uneven, all over the place and all of the music sounds the same. It should win best Set Design and lighting design. That is where the spectacle should be rewarded. Not musical. Titanique knows what it s in’s way Lost Boys doesn’t.
Ragtime and Cats are both great. But Rsgtime is a mediocre production of a stunning show. Cats is a genius reimagining of a poorly written show.
Using puppet show to diminish Avenue Q is also misguided
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#67
Posted: 5/10/26 at 5:58pm
theatrekid3302 said: "Kad said: "theatrekid3302 said: "This thread is so out of touch with the average broadway consumer and is the reason broadway is going downhill.."
This thread is about Tony award predictions,not what you think should win."
Um, that is a Tony Award prediction. I PREDICT Lost Boys will win the Tony because it is by far the best show of the season. The only other viable option is Schmigadoon, which was also great, but The Lost Boys was at another level.
I predict that RAGTIME will win the Tony Award for Best Revival because I think the Tony Award voters are smart enough to see that Ragtime is clearly better than Cats: The Jellicle Ball, which has made a mockery of Cats and doesn't even have cats in it anymore, yet the lyrics still suggest their cats. And I've listened to Tempress singing Memory; she did not sound good, no wonder she didn't get a Tony nomination. This is a fashion show, not a Broadway musical. It is a travesty that Chess was not nominated for Best Revival what a great show that was!! with some incredible vocals. But who knows the Tony voters have been known to make idiotic decisions like Avenue Q winning against Wicked. How is that even possible? A PUPPET SHOW over WICKED! Give me a break!"
You need to find a therapist.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/26/03
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#68
Posted: 5/10/26 at 7:44pm
I gather theatrekid3302 might be an actual kid so I don’t think they need therapy (or full grown adults to tell them such) just a place where they can safely express their enthusiasm for theater. I appreciate they’re doing that.
theaterkid, I do hope as you get older you open your heart to appreciating the magic of “smaller” shows. When something like Two Strangers or Titanique breaks through and makes it to Broadway it can feel like a miracle an an industry that seems to value big splashy musicals and only takes risks on known writers.
Personally, for me the way these shows feel like Davids to the others’ Goliath adds to their charm.
But I also just enjoyed them more and found more value in them. Two Strangers felt earnest and heartfelt in the way the world needs right now and Titanique was pure silliness that amounted to some of the best laughter I’ve ever had in a theater.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#69
Posted: 5/10/26 at 7:44pm
Ok so I’ve had to make a minor change to my predictions: consider this a very chaotic choice but initially I had Kai Harada for Cats: The Jellicle Ball getting sound design of a musical but after I saw Rocky Horror last night, I think Brian Ronan might pull an upset here
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#70
Posted: 5/10/26 at 10:21pm
I am curious how the latest Broadway Groses will play into who will win Best Musical. Schmigadoon is obviously the front runner but looking at the latest Broadway grosses (week ending May 3), I think The Lost Boys has a strong case to win Best Musical because it’s clearly leading the nominees commercially. It brought in $1,003,881 for the week, making it the only Best Musical nominee over the $1 million mark, compared to Titaníque at $730,431, Schmigadoon! at $646,129, and Two Strangers at $506,589. It also had the highest attendance with 11,216 people and played to 85% capacity, ahead of Titaníque (79%), Schmigadoon! (75%), and Two Strangers (69%). Since The Lost Boys is also tied with Schmigadoon! for the most Tony nominations, I think this is a two-show race between Lost Boys and Schmigadoon.
We saw the same thing with Maybe Happy Ending vs Buena Vista Social Club so we can’t go by groses but I do think it is somewhat of a factor. Schmigadoon! has a stronger Book and Score and industry support which is why they are currently in the lead but I do think there is a chance Lost Boys can overtake them because of how well they are doing with both attendance as well as the strong likelihood they will win a few tech / scenic design awards as well as Shoshana likely winning Best Featured Actress.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#71
Posted: 5/11/26 at 2:55am
Buena Vista was Never going to win being a jukebox tho, same for Hell’s Kitchen two seasons ago.
I think this is a 3 way race that anyone can guess and even NYT may no clear it all
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#72
Posted: 5/11/26 at 3:39am
I tossed out the box office theory the other day, which assumes that word of mouth and Tony nominations help The Lost Boys but do not boost the other nominees. My caveat is that ‘box office results’ have never mattered much in past Best Musical races. In short, I am skeptical of my own theory. If Tony voters like Schmigadoon! or Two Strangers more than The Lost Boys, they will vote for the show they like.
This is just an unusual year.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#73
Posted: 5/11/26 at 7:43am
Voter said: "MadsonMelo said: "They are very different aspects what art celebrates. “Ragtime” is social, political, extremely now, and I think many people resonate with that especially because the Acting is superb (can it win 4 Acting Tonys?), but “Cats” is such a queer celebration, something is so close to the theater community that I also find hard to ignore, and unlikely “Ragtime”, This production put “Cats” upside down and we know thats the way voters are going."
I would dare to say that the singing is superb, not the acting, which mostly feels hammy and surface level. I also don't think Ragtime is "extremely now," it's been that way every time it's run on Broadway becausethe themes are timeless. Nothing about the choices in this production have made it more "of the moment," though it would lend itself quite well to reinterpretation in that way."
Well, BLM didn’t exist when Ragtime first opened, and at least for many white people the fact that law enforcement kills the two black characters makes the show seem prescient.
Stand-by Joined: 3/16/17
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions#74
Posted: 5/11/26 at 8:38am
Cats The Jelicle Ball will be winning Best Revival of a Musical.
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