Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions — Page 4

goodtimes123 said: "It's a parody of Celine Dion. It's fun and indeed a Schtick. Caissie is playing a character. And acting/singing the hell out of it."

Well Stephanie J Block and Jessie Mueller won their Tonys for impersonations...what's your point? Marla Mindelle is far from counted out. Caissie's performance could very well win her the Tony, but to say she's going to win over Marla simply bc Marla is parodying a living person is a bit absurd. Especially when considering that *successful* comedy is widely regarded as much more difficult a craft than dramatics.

theatrekid3302 said: "JSquared2 said: "Wayman_Wong said: "''I just thought they wouldn't give BM to Schmigadoon! which is a limited run,''

''Schmigadoon!,''set to run through Sept. 6, 2026, has now been extended through Jan. 3, 2027."



Wayman, you should (and probably DO) know better -- "extended" only means that they've put tickets on sale until that date. They could still post closing on Monday. It'll run at least through the Tonys -- but if you look at ANYdate on the show's ticketing site, there are a lotof unsold seats!

"

When i went every seat was taken. I am sure they make a lot off of same-day ticket sales / rush."

 

It doesn't matter if they are filled or not. Look at the weekly grosses...most of the shows are 90%+ attendance.  Attendance, coupled with average ticket price is what matters, and Schmiggadoon's is bad.  I doubt that they have had a breakeven week yet

OhHiii said: "BroadwayGirl107 said: "I think it’d be such a bummer if something wins Best Musical because it’s a big flashy musical adapted from a movie, or a barely new musical that’s basically a TV show on stage."

That's frankly a very stupid reason to be rooting against something when they're good to great adaptations of their source material. If the product is good, it shouldn't matter where the material came from if it stands on it's own which both of those mentioned do..."

Is it stupid that I’m rooting for Two Strangers or Titanique because I think they’re better shows and enjoyed them more?? 

Ewwww. I hate when people use that passive aggressive "Hope that helps clarify for you" 

 

OhHiii said: "BroadwayGirl107 said: "Is itstupidthat I’m rooting for Two Strangers or Titanique because I think they’re better shows and enjoyed them more??"

Your reasoning that they're less worthy simply for being adaptationsisstupid. Maybe literacy isn't your strong suit.Hope that helpsclarify for you.

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "Keep in mind, there's a difference between impersonating a real-life person and portraying them. Block and Mueller both won for portrayinglegendary recording artists in biographical shows that weren't parodies."

Doesn't, inany way, counter my point that Marla doing an impersonation in a parody makes her less likely to win an acting award."

 

SCHMIGADOON! just won the Outer Critics Circle award for outstanding new Broadway musical over TWO STRANGERS and THE LOST BOYS.

Interesting. 

ER765 said: "While I do believe SCHMIGADOON is the current presumptive front runner, we all know by now that the OCCs are not any sort of predictor for other awards ceremonies."

That’s right. When it comes to any awards season (especially the TONYs) the critics/press aren’t always correct when it comes to predicting the big award shows themselves. Luckily, both the Drama League AND Drama Desk Awards are happening this week and even tho like the OCC’s they honor both on and off broadway shows, they are voted on by those working in the industry, so I believe those will be a big indicator for several categories.  

malcs98 said: "ER765 said: "While I do believe SCHMIGADOON is the current presumptive front runner, we all know by now that the OCCs are not any sort of predictor for other awards ceremonies."

That’s right. When it comes to any awards season (especially the TONYs) the critics/press aren’t always correct when it comes to predicting the big award shows themselves. Luckily, both the Drama League AND Drama Desk Awards are happening this week and even tho like the OCC’s they honor both on and off broadway shows, they are voted on by those working in the industry, so I believe those will be a big indicator for several categories."

Don't the Drama League and Drama Desk (like the Outer Critics Circle) have no voter overlap with the Tonys?

''Luckily, both the Drama League AND Drama Desk Awards are happening this week and even tho like the OCC’s they honor both on and off broadway shows, they are voted on by those working in the industry''

Frankly, i don't think the Drama League or Drama Desk represent more voters ''working in the industry.'' For the many years I edited at the New York Daily News, I belonged to the Outer Critics Circle and the Drama Desk, and their memberships are pretty similar: mostly folks who cover the theater for print, radio, online, etc. And as press, I attended lots of Drama League luncheons. Membership is open to the public, and starting at $250 a year, you, too, get to vote on their awards.

Updated On: 5/11/26 at 03:17 PM

ACL2006 said: "theatrekid3302 said: "ACL2006 said: "TWO STRANGERS should win. It's original and unique. Sadly, if it doesn't win Best Musical, it'll probably close at the end of June."

Probably the most boring musical I have ever seen. Some of the songs were good, but the set was a bore, and the cast consisting of only TWO PEOPLE made the story hard to follow and rather dull. Lost Boys and Schmigadoon were both fantastic and should be the main contenders for this award. I was at Schmigadoon yesterday, PACKED HOUSE, so much excitement. Same thing with the Lost Boys. For Two Strangers, the mezzanine was half empty and the audience was not that enthusiastic, mind you, that was the day of tony nomination announcements.

Between Lost Boys and Schmigadoon, I think Lost Boys should 100% win best musical it was breathtaking the scenic design, the flying, i think the storyline was great, music was great. Both of these shows have what we have been seeing less and less of on Broadway for years SPECTACLE. Both are expensive lavish productions with costumes, a large set, powerful vocals. That will be the story for whoever wins.

Schmigadoon specifically would be a signal that we miss the classics we want feel good musicals again. WE WANT BROADWAY."

You're in incompetent fool ifyou didn't understand TWO STRANGERS. Big musicals don't always win Best Musical. And Two Strangers has the Best book, hands down"

There is no need to be rude I did understand it was about two strangers that one was an estranged son going to the wedding of a father he never met and the girl was the sister of the bride.He wants to explore the city and she is a grump who has issues with her sister. They picked up a cake they drop it. They start liking each other and opening up. He gets angry when she tells him the truth that his father doesn’t want to meet him and the fiancé invited him. Then he realizes she was trying to help him and they both don’t go to the wedding and make up and then he goes home. Nice story but it’s too dull for it to take 2 hours and 15 minutes to tell and without the side characters it’s hard to fully understand certain scenes especially, when there interacting with characters who aren’t even on stage. It would have been nice to have seen the sister, seen robins grandma, had some scenery other than suitcases. Sometimes the suitcases worked like when they were at the plaza it looked like a hotel room but other scenes it was hard to tell where they were or what exactly was happening. The story was cute but boring, some of the songs were good others weren’t. Was it terrible? No but it left a lot to be desired. To say this has the best book is utterly ridiculous the storyline is ridiculously simple and lacks any real plot. This would have been a good Lifetime or Hallmark movie.

gibsons2 said: "theatrekid3302 said: "To say this has the best book is utterly ridiculous the storyline is ridiculously simple and lacks any real plot.This would have been a good Lifetime or Hallmark movie."

I think it's difficult to write a musical with perfectlydeveloped characters. Most musicals, even very good ones, lack in that department. But minimizing Two Strangers to a surface level, primitive Hallmark movie is ridiculous and short minded. Both characters are deeply flawed, one with severe abandonment trauma, another one is an impulsive cynic with a huge skeleton in the closet. It's advertised as romcom, but if you dig a little deeper into those two characters, the whole story is pretty dark and divisive."

Yes, but I also found that the writers could have done a better job conveying that fully through song to change the mood and tone of the show which read like a hallmark movie as the other poster said. Dear Evan Hansen did a great job of doing that as an example by really finding that emotional depth. It wasn’t nearly as emotionally heavy as it could have been and layed heavily into the comedy aspect which got played out within 20 minutes of the show. The beginning of the show I found it funny then it kind of got played out. I loved the last song “If I Believed” and thought that was brilliantly done the only problem was I thought to myself “this is what I’ve been waiting for the whole show a song like this, a moment like this”. 

Updated On: 5/11/26 at 04:09 PM

kidmanboy said: "gibsons2 said: "theatrekid3302 said: "To say this has the best book is utterly ridiculous the storyline is ridiculously simple and lacks any real plot.This would have been a good Lifetime or Hallmark movie."

I think it's difficult to write a musical with perfectlydeveloped characters. Most musicals, even very good ones, lack in that department. But minimizing Two Strangers to a surface level, primitive Hallmark movie is ridiculous and short minded. Both characters are deeply flawed, one with severe abandonment trauma, another one is a impulsive cynic with a huge skeleton in the closet. It's advertised as romcom, but if you dig a little deeper into those two characters, the whole story is pretty dark and divisive."

The problem is that the details of these backstories are so convoluted and full of holes that none of it rings true.

"

Not really convoluted. Although I agree that not all songs served their purpose to convey characters' motivations, emotions etc. My vote for best musical goes to The Lost Boys, but Two Strangers definitely has much stronger book. The Lost Boys should be grateful for the Lucy Emerson character (and Shoshana's work), she's holding the whole musical together like a glue.

kidmanboy said: "gibsons2 said: "theatrekid3302 said: "To say this has the best book is utterly ridiculous the storyline is ridiculously simple and lacks any real plot.This would have been a good Lifetime or Hallmark movie."

I think it's difficult to write a musical with perfectly developed characters. Most musicals, even very good ones, lack in that department. But minimizing Two Strangers to a surface level, primitive Hallmark movie is ridiculous and short minded. Both characters are deeply flawed, one with severe abandonment trauma, another one is a impulsive cynic with a huge skeleton in the closet. It's advertised as romcom, but if you dig a little deeper into those two characters, the whole story is pretty dark and divisive."

The problem is that the details of these backstories are so convoluted and full of holes that none of it rings true."

Not really, but the number of people on multiple boards who've asked questions about basic things that are explained in the show (like the person in the Previews thread who asked, "Why didn't she want to see her grandmother anyway?" and "Why didn't she take the cake upstairs?" make me question if Two Strangers is actually a test of media literacy. Somehow it's a show that is both "too simple" and "too convoluted" and things the characters say and explicitly sing about are unknowable mysteries.