Way Too Early 2020 Tony Predictions thread- Page 5

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 11/1/19 at 12:57am

''Bobby is not a great role, beyond Being Alive.  S/he is an observer for most of the show.''

In the right hands, it could be. Larry Kert got a Tony nomination for the 1970 original cast. And Raul Esparza received a Tony nomination and won the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk Awards for the 2006 revival. ' And, of course, Rosalie Craig got a 2019 Olivier nomination for this female version of ''Company.''

Updated On: 11/1/19 at 12:57 AM

[PianoMann]

Posted: 11/1/19 at 11:58am

jagman1062 said: "Do you think that Kalukango and Nolan might be bumped up to leads simply because they appear in the "third act" of the play, which is raw and intense giving them much more content to perform (although Nolan's performance is rather limited in the "second act" and Kalukango has few lines but speaks volumes in body language). If they are bumped up to lead recognition, I certainly see Kalukango being a contender but think Nolan would be a long shot for a nomination."

Yes, more or less. Slave Play is by and large an ensemble piece, but Kalukango and Nolan open the show and, of course, star in the third act. And while the second act is the longest and involves all of the players, I think audiences leave the theater most moved and challenged by that final scene. For that reason, I think there's merit to the idea that they could be bumped up to the lead categories. I agree with you that in either category Kalukango is the most likely to get nominated and I think Nolan would struggle in either. Of the eight cast members, Kalukango, Cusati-Moyer, and McNamara seem to me to have the best chances at nominations.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 11/1/19 at 12:36pm

BJR said: "Rumors of K-POP coming in could also add some drama to the Best Musical race."

True, but what theatre could it take? Nothing is free at the moment, although Beetlejuice and Tootsie I think would close come spring, but even then Hugh Jackman is likely taking over the Winter Garden. I just think there simply isn't space available this season unless I'm missing something. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 11/1/19 at 12:49pm

KPOP is rumored to be looking into Circle in the Square, which does not have a tenant after Oklahoma! closes in January.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 11/1/19 at 12:58pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "KPOP is rumored to be looking into Circle in the Square, which does not have a tenant after Oklahoma! closes in January."

 

That was true until quite recently. American Buffalo was announced to be going into CITS. 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 11/1/19 at 1:02pm

I believe the only free theatre is the Golden? I wonder if Slave Play will extend to the spring/summer with Tony nominations coming up. I haven't looked at grosses so I'm not too sure how realistic that is. Also doubt K-POP would play the Golden but who knows the size of this show on a proscenium stage. Musical is a pretty even category though it seems this year which is super exciting! Always a fun distraction to watch these award races. 

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 11/1/19 at 1:21pm

Barrymore, Cort, Golden, Lyceum, and Neil Simon are all free by my count. Barrymore has the inheritance right now but only until 3/1 which could allow for a quick turnaround and Neil Simon has MJ coming later but could still hold a limited run. I dont know what kind of theater KPOP would potentially be looking for but besides the Neil Simon, these are all fairly small houses I think. Blue and The Minutes are also supposed to be coming in, and it seems like Almost Famous wants to slip in as well.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 11/1/19 at 1:46pm

chrishuyen said: "Barrymore, Cort, Golden, Lyceum, and Neil Simon are all free by my count. Barrymore has the inheritance right now but only until 3/1 which could allow for a quick turnaround and Neil Simon has MJ coming later but could still hold a limited run. I dont know what kind of theater KPOP would potentially be looking for but besides the Neil Simon, these are all fairly small houses I think. Blue and The Minutes are also supposed to be coming in, and it seems like Almost Famous wants to slip in as well."

Ah, forgot Diana was playing the Longacre and not the Neil Simon. 

Based on those, I believe its heavily rumored that the Cort will receive Blue, and Lyceum The Minutes. Even if they aren't rumors, they've been announced and would make sense for those theaters. 

I expect The Inheritance to extend to July like The Ferryman did, or end of June at least. Its likely going to win Best Play, and I would they want to capitalize on the grosses from that. Of course if they do not make any $ until 3/1 it may force a close. But id expect this to be around come spring. 

The Neil Simon is the oddball here though. It wouldn't shock me at all fi that MJ musical gets cancelled. It just wouldn't, and we all know the reasons why. Nearly a year until it comes in and only more horror stories about Michael could potentially come up. Then again its America, so people may just forget about it. 

Id think K-POP would have to be this fall, but would be happy to be proven wrong since I'm quite interested in the show. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 11/1/19 at 2:01pm

@JBroadway Ah! I must have totally missed the CITS announcement for American Buffalo. Thanks.

And Mike...MJ is currently in a very lengthy rehearsal process. They've invested heavily in this stage of development, so cancelling it ain't gonna happen. Part of the reason is that producers have plans for this beyond Broadway in all sorts of markets. Who knows how it long it will last on Bway, but it is most definitely coming. 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 11/4/19 at 12:48am

VotePeron said: "The idea of Moulin Rouge winning Best Musical absolutely horrified me. Y’all wanna talk about how much you hate Vegas/Theme Park shows on Broadway, but award this mediocre juggernaut because you like the movie and it’s pretty to look at it? Oof."

Yeah, people seem to forget that Moulin Rouge! got mixed reviews from critics. Plus, there’s still this whole industry bias against commodity musicals. If Tony voters have taught us anything in recent years, it is that they’re snobs. I think Moulin Rouge! will probably do about as well as An American in Paris and The Great Comet did in their respective years. Enormous shows that may have their share of champions, but still lack the gravitas of their competition.

As of now, I think the Best Musical race will come down to Girl From the North Country and Six. The former show would follow a similar trajectory to a lot of recent Tony champions from this past decade. It’s a scrappy little show that moves from Off-Broadway to Broadway. While Girl From the North Country is a jukebox musical, it at least is suppose to be doing something completely different with the genre. Though I could see Six having (slightly) more snob appeal given that it has a completely original score and doesn’t rely on any pre-existing material.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 11/4/19 at 8:49am

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "VotePeron said: "The idea of Moulin Rouge winning Best Musical absolutely horrified me. Y’all wanna talk about how much you hate Vegas/Theme Park shows on Broadway, but award this mediocre juggernaut because you like the movie and it’s pretty to look at it? Oof."

Yeah, people seem to forget that Moulin Rouge! got mixed reviews from critics. Plus, there’s still this whole industry bias against commodity musicals. If Tony voters have taught us anything in recent years, it is that they’re snobs.I thinkMoulin Rouge!will probablydo about as well asAn American in ParisandThe Great Cometdid in their respective years. Enormous shows that may have their share of champions, but still lack the gravitas of their competition.

As of now, I think the Best Musical race will come down toGirl From the North CountryandSix. The former show would follow a similar trajectory to a lot of recent Tony champions from this past decade. It’s a scrappy little show that moves from Off-Broadway to Broadway. WhileGirl From the North Countryis a jukebox musical, it at least is suppose to be doing something completely different with the genre. Though I could seeSixhaving (slightly) more snob appeal given that it has a completely original score and doesn’t rely on any pre-existing material."

I completely see your points, but I also feel they don't apply this season. Yes, Girl From The North Country is different in its presentation of their music, but couldn't you then technically say the same about Moulin Rouge? Re mixing some of the songs to fit their show, with electric choreography, having nothing to do with the oringal composers of the music, rather its just focusing on the characters themselves with songs we know thrown in. Im sure there are other jukebox esq shows in the past, but none of them have done it to the level and immersion that Moulin Rouge has. 

I really feel the best musical race is completely wide open this season. Like, completely. If GFNC, Moulin Rouge, Six, JLP, and Flying Over Sunset all do well it should be a fun competition. 

[magictodo123]

Posted: 11/4/19 at 8:56am

Mike Barrett said: "Jeffrey Karasarides said: "VotePeron said: "The idea of Moulin Rouge winning Best Musical absolutely horrified me. Y’all wanna talk about how much you hate Vegas/Theme Park shows on Broadway, but award this mediocre juggernaut because you like the movie and it’s pretty to look at it? Oof."

Yeah, people seem to forget that Moulin Rouge! got mixed reviews from critics. Plus, there’s still this whole industry bias against commodity musicals. If Tony voters have taught us anything in recent years, it is that they’re snobs.I thinkMoulin Rouge!will probablydo about as well asAn American in ParisandThe Great Cometdid in their respective years. Enormous shows that may have their share of champions, but still lack the gravitas of their competition.

As of now, I think the Best Musical race will come down toGirl From the North CountryandSix. The former show would follow a similar trajectory to a lot of recent Tony champions from this past decade. It’s a scrappy little show that moves from Off-Broadway to Broadway. WhileGirl From the North Countryis a jukebox musical, it at least is suppose to be doing something completely different with the genre. Though I could seeSixhaving (slightly) more snob appeal given that it has a completely original score and doesn’t rely on any pre-existing material."

I completely see your points, but I also feel they don't apply this season. Yes, Girl From The North Country is different in its presentation of their music, but couldn't you then technically say the same about Moulin Rouge? Re mixing some of the songs to fit their show, with electric choreography, having nothing to do with the oringal composers of the music, rather its just focusing on the characters themselves with songs we know thrown in. Im sure there are other jukebox esq shows in the past, but none of them have done it to the level and immersion that Moulin Rouge has.

I really feel the best musical race is completely wide open this season. Like, completely. If GFNC, Moulin Rouge, Six, JLP, and Flying Over Sunset all do well it should be a fun competition."

Mike Barrett, I completely agree. I don't think I've heard of Moulin Rouge! having original songs in it, does it? If so, they're few and far between....yeah, I really do think the Best Musical race could be wide open, unpredictable. To me, right now? it doesn't seem like there's a clear-cut frontrunner. 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 11/4/19 at 10:46am

magictodo123 said: "Mike Barrett said: "Jeffrey Karasarides said: "VotePeron said: "The idea of Moulin Rouge winning Best Musical absolutely horrified me. Y’all wanna talk about how much you hate Vegas/Theme Park shows on Broadway, but award this mediocre juggernaut because you like the movie and it’s pretty to look at it? Oof."

Yeah, people seem to forget that Moulin Rouge! got mixed reviews from critics. Plus, there’s still this whole industry bias against commodity musicals. If Tony voters have taught us anything in recent years, it is that they’re snobs.I thinkMoulin Rouge!will probablydo about as well asAn American in ParisandThe Great Cometdid in their respective years. Enormous shows that may have their share of champions, but still lack the gravitas of their competition.

As of now, I think the Best Musical race will come down toGirl From the North CountryandSix. The former show would follow a similar trajectory to a lot of recent Tony champions from this past decade. It’s a scrappy little show that moves from Off-Broadway to Broadway. WhileGirl From the North Countryis a jukebox musical, it at least is suppose to be doing something completely different with the genre. Though I could seeSixhaving (slightly) more snob appeal given that it has a completely original score and doesn’t rely on any pre-existing material."

I completely see your points, but I also feel they don't apply this season. Yes, Girl From The North Country is different in its presentation of their music, but couldn't you then technically say the same about Moulin Rouge? Re mixing some of the songs to fit their show, with electric choreography, having nothing to do with the oringal composers of the music, rather its just focusing on the characters themselves with songs we know thrown in. Im sure there are other jukebox esq shows in the past, but none of them have done it to the level and immersion that Moulin Rouge has.

I really feel the best musical race is completely wide open this season. Like, completely. If GFNC, Moulin Rouge, Six, JLP, and Flying Over Sunset all do well it should be a fun competition."

Mike Barrett, I completely agree. I don't think I've heard of Moulin Rouge! having original songs in it, does it? If so, they're few and far between....yeah, I really do think the Best Musical race could be wide open, unpredictable. To me, right now? it doesn't seem like there's a clear-cut frontrunner."

The only "original" is still from the movie, so there technically isn't an original. I think my main point is that how Girl From North Country expands/pushes the Jukebox genre, I think Moulin Rouge does as well. Just in a completely, 360 degrees difference. 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 11/4/19 at 11:34am

Mike Barrett said: "Yes, Girl From The North Country is different in its presentation of their music, but couldn't you then technically say the same about Moulin Rouge? Re mixing some of the songs to fit their show, with electric choreography, having nothing to do with the oringal composers of the music, rather its just focusing on the characters themselves with songs we know thrown in. Im sure there are other jukebox esq shows in the past, but none of them have done it to the level and immersion that Moulin Rouge has." 

 

This is a tough question, and impossible to answer without getting into the subjective opinions of each of these shows. But as someone who disliked Moulin Rouge, I would NOT place it in the "new and different" category of Jukebox musical along with North Country.

First of all, there have been tons of other jukebox musicals that weren't about the composers (Mamma Mia!, Priscilla, Rock of Ages, Disaster, Bullets Over Broadway, Head Over Heels, Bat Out of Hell - just to name a few off the top of my head). So there's nothing new on that ground. And as for none of them being done at this level of immersion? I guess that's true, and I will grant you that Moulin Rouge's immersion factor is probably the best thing about it, and does put it at a slightly higher level of artistry than some of these other jukebox shows. But for me, the immersion factor is pretty separate from its identity as a jukebox musical. Same goes for "electric choreography" - these things might make Moulin Rouge a better show, but IMO they don't impact what "kind" of jukebox musical it is. I still think the show faces many of the same issues that most jukebox musicals face: having familiar songs shoe-horned in as a gimmick, instead of serving the storytelling.

North Country also finds itself with some degree of disconnect between the songs and the story, which is why many people dislike it. But in my opinion, the show succeeds because it isn't designed to be plot-driven - it's more mood-driven, and theme-driven. So the songs function to express more raw emotion, and aren't given the burden of trying to move the story forward in a traditional way - which is where many jukebox musicals fail in my book, including the stage version of Moulin Rouge. 

Now, if we were talking about the MOVIE Moulin Rouge, I might agree with you. But I think the use of music in the stage version is significantly less imaginative, less interesting, less seamless, and less successful than in the movie. 

Also, I think the Tony voters are more likely to see North Country as being a "new and different" kind of jukebox musical, if only because it's a serious show, and not a "crowd-pleaser." That alone doesn't necessarily make the show better or worse, but the Tonys have been favoring "serious" musicals for most of this decade. 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 11/4/19 at 1:27pm

JBroadway said: "Mike Barrett said: "Yes, Girl From The North Country is different in its presentation of their music, but couldn't you then technically say the same about Moulin Rouge? Re mixing some of the songs to fit their show, with electric choreography, having nothing to do with the oringal composers of the music, rather its just focusing on the characters themselves with songs we know thrown in. Im sure there are other jukebox esq shows in the past, but none of them have done it to the level and immersion that Moulin Rouge has."



This is a tough question, and impossible to answer without getting into the subjective opinions of each of these shows. But as someone who disliked Moulin Rouge, I would NOT place it in the "new and different" category of Jukebox musical along with North Country.

First of all, there have beentons of other jukebox musicalsthat weren't about the composers (Mamma Mia!, Priscilla, Rock of Ages, Disaster, Bullets Over Broadway, Head Over Heels, Bat Out of Hell - just to name a few off the top of my head). So there's nothing new on that ground. And as for none of them being done at this level of immersion? I guess that's true, andI will grant you that Moulin Rouge's immersion factor is probably the best thing about it, and does put it at a slightly higher level of artistry than some of these other jukebox shows. But for me, the immersion factor is pretty separate from its identity as a jukebox musical. Same goes for "electric choreography" - these things might make Moulin Rouge a better show, but IMO they don't impact what "kind" of jukebox musical it is.I still think the show faces many of the same issues that most jukebox musicals face: having familiar songs shoe-horned in as a gimmick, instead of serving the storytelling.

North Country also finds itself with some degree of disconnect between the songs and the story, which is why many people dislike it. But in my opinion, the show succeeds because it isn't designed to be plot-driven - it's more mood-driven, and theme-driven. So the songs function to express more raw emotion, and aren't given the burden of trying to move the story forward in a traditional way - which is where many jukebox musicals fail in my book, including the stage version of Moulin Rouge.

Now, if we were talking about the MOVIE Moulin Rouge, I might agree with you. But I think the use of music in the stage version is significantly less imaginative, less interesting, less seamless, and less successful than in the movie.

Also, I think the Tony voters are more likely to see North Country as being a "new and different" kind of jukebox musical, if only because it's a serious show, and nota "crowd-pleaser." That alone doesn't necessarily make the show better or worse, but the Tonys have been favoring "serious" musicals for most of this decade."

These are completely fair arguments. I guess in terms of the choreography, immersion, design, etc, that speaks to the show itself and the not the jukebox version of it all, I completely agree with that. 

I guess the shows originality in terms of Jukebox is in its performance of it, which as you explained well, doesn't speak to the jukebox portion of the show, but the show itself. I am admittedly someone who has seen Moulin Rouge twice and love it but have zero connection to the movie, so I can't make the comparison there nor do I really have a bias. I love the show, and love speculating about its awards, Im rooting for it, but I have no personal investment really nor will it affect me if it wins zero tony's.  Well made argument for why A Girl From The North Country is more innovating, as I do agree the tony voters likely feel the same way. 

My only argument I guess between these 2 shows now, as a race for "Best Musical", if the music in A Girl From The North Country doesn't progress the story, and its non original music, do we think that will hurt their chances to win? I do not believe it should, as this is how the show has chosen to present its story, but I have seen this argued here before. Not arguing whether its A musical or NOT a musical, but whether if their presentation should make them a "Best Musical" winner. Obviously a tad early to tell here but its a discussion worth having. Did the other shows succeed in telling their story through music, and should that ultimately be the deciding factor when awarding "Best musical"? Might be the bigger question at play here. 

[Little Songbird]

Posted: 12/3/19 at 8:24pm

Why is JLP getting no love on this thread? I have seen Moulin Rouge! and JLP so far this season and I found JLP to be wildly thought provoking and emotional. I think JLP is a contender for best actress (Elizabeth Stanley, although Celia Gooding is also amazing), best book (Diablo Cody), and best supporting actress (Lauren Patten with You Outta Know has been getting standing Os every night), will get a choreo nomination (though MR will prob take it), and may even get best musical depending on reviews. My only worry with JLP is that it may appeal to a younger audience, but I would argue Six does as well. Moulin Rouge! was incredible and will sweep set, choreo, costumes, lighting, and I found Karen Olivo's role to be more challenging than Aaron's, although both were SPECTACULAR performances. This is gonna be a super competitive year... Any word on Tina? 

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 12/3/19 at 9:52pm

''People seem to forget that Moulin Rouge! got mixed reviews''

I don't think people are forgetting, but it seems a non-factor, thanks to its word of mouth. It's the biggest box-office hit new musical of this season (so far), grossing over $2 million a week, doing 125% of its gross potential. Call it a juggernaut or a crowdpleaser, but it's doing something right. And Ben Brantley just put ''Moulin Rouge!'' on his ''Best Theater of 2019'' list at the Times.. 

That said, there are still so many questions that hang over the Best Musical race. How will ''Flying Over Sunset'' do? Or ''Mrs. Doubtfire''? Or ''Sing Street'' (which rumors say is going into the Lyceum)? Will ''Almost Famous'' make it this season? Is ''Mr. Saturday Night'' still coming? Anything can still happen!

Updated On: 12/3/19 at 09:52 PM

[Hamilfan2]

Posted: 12/12/19 at 11:18am

For Musicals:
Best Musical- Moulin Rouge
Best Revival- Company
Best Actor- Isaac Powell
Best Actress- Katrina Lenk
Best Supporting Actor- Danny Burstein
Best Supporting Actress- Patti LuPone
Best Score- Six
Best Direction- Alex Timbers
Best Choreo- Moulin Rouge
Best Set- Moulin Rouge
Best Costumes- Moulin Rouge
Best Orchestrations- GFTNC

Edited for Best Score as I was informed below that Sing Street is ineligible.
 

Updated On: 12/12/19 at 11:18 AM

[MollyJeanneMusic]

Posted: 12/12/19 at 11:37am

Hamilfan2 said: "For Musicals:
Best Musical- Moulin Rouge
Best Revival- Company
Best Actor- Isaac Powell
Best Actress- Katrina Lenk
Best Supporting Actor- Danny Burstein
Best Supporting Actress- Patti LuPone
Best Score- Sing Street
Best Direction- Alex Timbers
Best Choreo- Moulin Rouge
Best Set- Moulin Rouge
Best Costumes- Moulin Rouge
Best Orchestrations- GFTNC


"

Interesting point raised by this prediction - could this be the second year in a row in which neither of the leads of a Best Musical winner win an award for their performance? (Also a funny coincidence that Moulin Rouge is also based on the Orpheus myth.)

[Andres_Zayas]

Posted: 12/12/19 at 11:49am

Could Jay O. Sanders be a contender for Best Actor in a Musical for Girl From the North Country? Ciaran Hinds received an Olivier nomination for Best Actor for the same role, though some see Sanders as more likely to be nominated for Featured Actor.

[Ledaero]

Posted: 12/12/19 at 12:04pm

Hamilfan2 said: "For Musicals:
Best Musical- Moulin Rouge
Best Revival- Company
Best Actor- Isaac Powell
Best Actress- Katrina Lenk
Best Supporting Actor- Danny Burstein
Best Supporting Actress- Patti LuPone
Best Score- Sing Street
Best Direction- Alex Timbers
Best Choreo- Moulin Rouge
Best Set- Moulin Rouge
Best Costumes- Moulin Rouge
Best Orchestrations- GFTNC

I don't think Sing Street will be eligible for Best Score. Sam situation as Once, right? Too many songs pulled from the film that it wouldn't constitute original music? Not to mention all of their music pulled from 80s hits.

 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 12/12/19 at 4:08pm

These lists are always fun, but we are so early in the season.  Somewhere earlier in this subject, I believe, I predicted -- in response to a MR-hater, so it might have been in a MR thread -- that MR was a shoo-in for director and choreographer.  Based on the first two previews of WSS, I am now thinking that if Van Hoe (sic) can pull it off, then director AND choreographer may be more up for grabs, although I do feel that Tony voters are more biased toward new musicals than revivals overall, assuming both are high-quality.  

The good ness IMO is that, come Tony time, I think we are looking to having multiple strong nominees in all four categories already, which is not always the case.

 

 

 

Updated On: 12/12/19 at 04:08 PM

[Hamilfan2]

Posted: 12/12/19 at 4:38pm

Ledaero said: "I don't think Sing Street will be eligible for Best Score. Sam situation as Once, right? Too many songs pulled from the film that it wouldn't constitute original music? Not to mention all of their music pulled from 80s hits.

"

Good point!  I hadn’t considered since the songs were from the movie it wouldn’t be eligible.  Who is even eligible then?  Is it just Mrs Doutfire and Six?  Could we potentially see a play swoop in for the win?

Updated On: 12/12/19 at 04:38 PM

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 12/12/19 at 4:49pm

Hamilfan2 said: "Good point! I hadn’t considered since the songs were from the movie it wouldn’t be eligible. Who is even eligible then? Is it just Mrs Doutfire and Six? Could we potentially see a play swoop in for the win?"

Six, Mrs. Doubtfire, Lightning Thief, Flying Over Sunset, and Diana are our original scores of the season. It's of course possible that a play gets nominated but I doubt it'll win, partially because I'm not even sure which play would be most likely to get that nomination (the ones I've seen so far haven't really had original scores)

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 12/12/19 at 5:02pm

JBroadway posted this in the Sing Street @ NYTW thread:

''If this show were to transfer, it would almost certainly NOT be eligible for best score. Most of the songs are from the film, and several of the additional songs were written for the film but cut. I’m not sure how those are counted with regards to Tony eligibility, but either way I don’t think they reach 50% new material. This isn’t a criticism of the show - I thought the songs were utilized really well (mostly). I’m just saying I don’t think it will be Tony-eligible.''

Updated On: 12/12/19 at 05:02 PM