Posted: 10/29/19 at 11:11am
Posted: 10/29/19 at 11:50am
Thank you call_me_jorge! This is a way way too early predictions thread which obviously will change once every show is seen. I’m just basing these winners on glowing reviews in the west end (a Christmas carol) and if the character is an award winning role (take me out). - obviously if Jesse f#cks this up then he won’t win the Tony (although I think he will do an excellent job).
I am not saying that Moulin Rouge also is the best musical there is this season. I just can’t see (for now) that there is an underdog musical like Fun Home or Avenue Q that can beat out the juggernaut that is Moulin Rouge. Ofcourse everything would change if Flying Over Sunset would turn out to be a work of art and be completely moving like Fun Home or if Girl from the North Country and Six can give a very remarkable campaign like Avenue Q did to topple such a Wicked-like big budget production musical. And then there is Diana and Jagged that may surprise everyone and improve significantly their book and/or music to pose a threat. Or if Mrs. Doubfire turn out be be more that just another tootsie.
So yeah it’s a way way too early predictions thread. I thought it was understood that we take all of this with a grain of salt. It was meant for fun and see how very wrong we are in the end.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 12:01pm
Markie27 said: "I just can’t see (for now) that there is an underdog musical like Fun Home or Avenue Q that can beat out the juggernaut that is Moulin Rouge."
I'd hardly say that Moulin Rouge is a juggernaut, though. At the box office, perhaps, but critically it was very mixed and it seems that most of the audiences loving it aren't made up of your typical Tony voters.
Not trying to discount your prediction or anything--obviously it very well could still end up catching fire and winning it all--just I wouldn't say it's a "Book of Mormon" or "Dear Evan Hansen" or "Hamilton" that had huge box office numbers AND huge critical support, which really led those shows to becoming juggernauts.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 12:13pm
Broadway61004 said: "Markie27 said: "I just can’t see (for now) that there is an underdog musical like Fun Home or Avenue Q that can beat out the juggernaut that is Moulin Rouge."
I'd hardly say that Moulin Rouge is a juggernaut, though. At the box office, perhaps, but critically it was very mixed and it seems that most of the audiences loving it aren't made up of your typical Tony voters.
Not trying to discount your prediction or anything--obviously it very well could still end up catching fire and winning it all--just I wouldn't say it's a "Book of Mormon" or "Dear Evan Hansen" or "Hamilton" that had huge box office numbers AND huge critical support, which really led those shows to becoming juggernauts."
Juggernaut is mainly based on box office, which Moulin Rouge certainly has. Glowing review from the times, tour opening up rather early, a West End run announced, I think Moulin Rouge will end up in that category. TO hardly say one of the highest grossing shows on Broadway right now isn't a juggernaut is a bit ridiculous. However, it is within its first 6 months so if anything its premature. The trajectory towards that though is what matters, and that is where it is headed. Not even defending the show, but the writing is on the wall. This will be a massive hit. Critics I think are not going to play a role in its success as it clearly hasn't to this point. People see a sell out $ making hit, they assume its good, and grab a ticket alongside it. Moulin Rouge is certainly the closest we've gotten to a "juggernaut" since DEH.
That being said, is this isn't meant to undermine SIX in anyway as I have not seen it, would the tony committee give "Best musical" to a 1hr 20 min concert type show? The score is fabulous, but would they do that? Im leaning towards no. So scratch that. JLP I think we need to read reviews on but the marketing alone has me question its credibility into being a "best musical" contender. Flying Over Sunset we know nothing about other than its A list creative team. A Girl From The North Country to me seems like the biggest contender for Best Musical. But realistically other than that, whats stopping Moulin Rouge?
Posted: 10/29/19 at 12:18pm
Mike Barrett said: "Broadway61004 said: "Markie27 said: "I just can’t see (for now) that there is an underdog musical like Fun Home or Avenue Q that can beat out the juggernaut that is Moulin Rouge."
I'd hardly say that Moulin Rouge is a juggernaut, though. At the box office, perhaps, but critically it was very mixed and it seems that most of the audiences loving it aren't made up of your typical Tony voters.
Not trying to discount your prediction or anything--obviously it very well could still end up catching fire and winning it all--just I wouldn't say it's a "Book of Mormon" or "Dear Evan Hansen" or "Hamilton" that had huge box office numbers AND huge critical support, which really led those shows to becoming juggernauts."
Juggernaut is mainly based on box office, which Moulin Rouge certainly has. Glowing review from the times, tour opening up rather early, a West End run announced, I think Moulin Rouge will end up in that category. TO hardly say one of the highest grossing shows on Broadway right now isn't a juggernaut is a bit ridiculous. However, it is within its first 6 months so if anything its premature. The trajectory towards that though is what matters, and that is where it is headed. Not even defending the show, but the writing is on the wall. This will be a massive hit. Critics I think are not going to play a role in its success as it clearly hasn't to this point. People see a sell out $ making hit, they assume its good, and grab a ticket alongside it. Moulin Rouge is certainly the closest we've gotten to a "juggernaut" since DEH.
That being said, is this isn't meant to undermineSIX in anyway as I have not seen it, would the tony committee give "Best musical" to a 1hr 20 min concert type show? The score is fabulous, but would they do that? Im leaning towards no. So scratch that. JLP I think we need to read reviews on but the marketing alone has me question its credibility into being a "best musical" contender. Flying Over Sunset we know nothing about other than its A list creative team. A Girl From The North Country to me seems like the biggest contender for Best Musical. But realistically other than that, whats stopping Moulin Rouge?"
It's definitely a juggernaut in regards to the box office, but my point was that doesn't necessary mean it's an awards juggernaut (I guess I should specify between two types of juggernauts, if you will). Frozen was a juggernaut at the box office (at least when it first opened), but that hardly meant it was a serious contender for Best Musical.
Again, not saying Moulin Rouge isn't a contender, just that I don't think their box office receipts automatically make them the frontrunner. I agree Six is going to be too short of a concept show to really contend for awards. Personally I think it will end up going to Girl From The North Country. But it's definitely wide open and Moulin Rouge is definitely a contender--my point was just that I don't think it's entered into that "awards show juggernaut that can't be stopped" category, even though it's catching fire at the box office.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 12:19pm
Broadway61004 said: "Markie27 said: "I just can’t see (for now) that there is an underdog musical like Fun Home or Avenue Q that can beat out the juggernaut that is Moulin Rouge."
I'd hardly say that Moulin Rouge is a juggernaut, though. At the box office, perhaps, but critically it was very mixed and it seems that most of the audiences loving it aren't made up of your typical Tony voters.
Not trying to discount your prediction or anything--obviously it very well could still end up catching fire and winning it all--just I wouldn't say it's a "Book of Mormon" or "Dear Evan Hansen" or "Hamilton" that had huge box office numbers AND huge critical support, which really led those shows to becoming juggernauts."
Oh I’m sorry I used the wrong term. What I meant by jauggernaut is a big budget production like Wicked. You are very right that there is no Hamilton or Dear Evan that were almost eventually assured of a win. Sorry yes that is what juggernaut is about. And that is not definitely Moulin Rouge. I just meant the big budget grand scale musical like Wicked and An American in Paris that can be toppled by a critically acclaimed small artistic, emotionally moving musical such as Fun Home or Avenue Q.
I do think that that artistic small musical that could would be Girl from the North Country but I am hesitant to put it alongside Fun Home because even though it is critically acclaimed, there are two things going against it - it’s not an original musical - dare I say it’s a jukebox musical, and many consider it as a play with music as well.
I would also love to see Six win but like what broadway rightfully said, it’s too small of a production to beat either of the two.
Updated On: 10/29/19 at 12:19 PM
Posted: 10/29/19 at 12:28pm
Posted: 10/29/19 at 12:42pm
Markie27 said: "Broadway61004 said: "Markie27 said: "I just can’t see (for now) that there is an underdog musical like Fun Home or Avenue Q that can beat out the juggernaut that is Moulin Rouge."
I'd hardly say that Moulin Rouge is a juggernaut, though. At the box office, perhaps, but critically it was very mixed and it seems that most of the audiences loving it aren't made up of your typical Tony voters.
Not trying to discount your prediction or anything--obviously it very well could still end up catching fire and winning it all--just I wouldn't say it's a "Book of Mormon" or "Dear Evan Hansen" or "Hamilton" that had huge box office numbers AND huge critical support, which really led those shows to becoming juggernauts."
Oh I’m sorry I used the wrong term. What I meant by jauggernaut is a big budget production like Wicked. You are very right that there is no Hamilton or Dear Evan that were almosteventually assured of a win. Sorry yes that is what juggernaut is about. And that is not definitely Moulin Rouge. I just meant the big budget grand scale musical like Wicked and An American in Paris that can be toppled by a critically acclaimed small artistic, emotionally movingmusical such as Fun Home or Avenue Q.
I do think that that artistic small musical that could would be Girl from the North Country but I am hesitant to put it alongside Fun Home because even though it is critically acclaimed, there are two things going against it - it’s not an original musical - dare I say it’s a jukebox musical, and many considerit as a play with music as well.
I would also love to see Six win but like what broadway rightfully said, it’s too small of a production to beat either of the two.
"
You're absolutely right about it being a box office juggernaut, though. And that very well could end up pushing it all the way to a Tony win. It really is a wide open race this year, which will keep it exciting. I actually still think Mrs. Doubtfire could potentially get in the mix (there was a ton of love within the community for Something Rotten when it opened, Jerry Zaks has a great track record with the Tonys, several performers like Brad Oscar and even Rob McClure can be looked at as somewhat overdue, etc.). I'm certainly not predicting it to win Best Musical right now, but wouldn't at all be surprised if it ends up being more of a contender than most seem to be thinking.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 12:45pm
Posted: 10/29/19 at 1:19pm
Broadway61004 said: "Mike Barrett said: "Broadway61004 said: "Markie27 said: "I just can’t see (for now) that there is an underdog musical like Fun Home or Avenue Q that can beat out the juggernaut that is Moulin Rouge."
I'd hardly say that Moulin Rouge is a juggernaut, though. At the box office, perhaps, but critically it was very mixed and it seems that most of the audiences loving it aren't made up of your typical Tony voters.
Not trying to discount your prediction or anything--obviously it very well could still end up catching fire and winning it all--just I wouldn't say it's a "Book of Mormon" or "Dear Evan Hansen" or "Hamilton" that had huge box office numbers AND huge critical support, which really led those shows to becoming juggernauts."
Juggernaut is mainly based on box office, which Moulin Rouge certainly has. Glowing review from the times, tour opening up rather early, a West End run announced, I think Moulin Rouge will end up in that category. TO hardly say one of the highest grossing shows on Broadway right now isn't a juggernaut is a bit ridiculous. However, it is within its first 6 months so if anything its premature. The trajectory towards that though is what matters, and that is where it is headed. Not even defending the show, but the writing is on the wall. This will be a massive hit. Critics I think are not going to play a role in its success as it clearly hasn't to this point. People see a sell out $ making hit, they assume its good, and grab a ticket alongside it. Moulin Rouge is certainly the closest we've gotten to a "juggernaut" since DEH.
That being said, is this isn't meant to undermineSIX in anyway as I have not seen it, would the tony committee give "Best musical" to a 1hr 20 min concert type show? The score is fabulous, but would they do that? Im leaning towards no. So scratch that. JLP I think we need to read reviews on but the marketing alone has me question its credibility into being a "best musical" contender. Flying Over Sunset we know nothing about other than its A list creative team. A Girl From The North Country to me seems like the biggest contender for Best Musical. But realistically other than that, whats stopping Moulin Rouge?"
It's definitely a juggernaut in regards to the box office, but my point was that doesn't necessary mean it's an awards juggernaut (I guess I should specify between two types of juggernauts, if you will). Frozen was a juggernaut at the box office (at least when it first opened), but that hardly meant it was a serious contender for Best Musical.
Again, not saying Moulin Rouge isn't a contender, just that I don't think their box office receipts automatically make them the frontrunner. I agree Six is going to be too short of a concept show to really contend for awards. Personally I think it will end up going to Girl From The North Country. But it's definitely wide open and Moulin Rouge is definitely a contender--my point was just that I don't think it's entered into that "awards show juggernaut that can't be stopped" category, even though it's catching fire at the box office."
That is fair. I think we're getting close to that though. Look I love Moulin Rouge but I can recognize its failures as well, so it most years no it wouldn't win best musical. I haven't seen Six, Flying Over Sunset, or A Girl From The North Country, so obviously this makes things harder to predict. I think unless one of these 3 shows get absolute raves across the board, we see a big night for Moulin Rouge. Touring voters have to like when a big marquee musical wins "Best Musical". Much easier to sell packages when that show is included. Who should and who will win are always different discussions. If I were a betting man (granted, in late October) my $ is on Moulin Rouge.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 2:46pm
Broadway61004 said: "Markie27 said: "Broadway61004 said: "Markie27 said: "I just can’t see (for now) that there is an underdog musical like Fun Home or Avenue Q that can beat out the juggernaut that is Moulin Rouge."
I'd hardly say that Moulin Rouge is a juggernaut, though. At the box office, perhaps, but critically it was very mixed and it seems that most of the audiences loving it aren't made up of your typical Tony voters.
Not trying to discount your prediction or anything--obviously it very well could still end up catching fire and winning it all--just I wouldn't say it's a "Book of Mormon" or "Dear Evan Hansen" or "Hamilton" that had huge box office numbers AND huge critical support, which really led those shows to becoming juggernauts."
Oh I’m sorry I used the wrong term. What I meant by jauggernaut is a big budget production like Wicked. You are very right that there is no Hamilton or Dear Evan that were almosteventually assured of a win. Sorry yes that is what juggernaut is about. And that is not definitely Moulin Rouge. I just meant the big budget grand scale musical like Wicked and An American in Paris that can be toppled by a critically acclaimed small artistic, emotionally movingmusical such as Fun Home or Avenue Q.
I do think that that artistic small musical that could would be Girl from the North Country but I am hesitant to put it alongside Fun Home because even though it is critically acclaimed, there are two things going against it - it’s not an original musical - dare I say it’s a jukebox musical, and many considerit as a play with music as well.
I would also love to see Six win but like what broadway rightfully said, it’s too small of a production to beat either of the two.
"
You're absolutely right about it being a box office juggernaut, though. And that very well could end up pushing it all the way to a Tony win. It really is a wide open race this year, which will keep it exciting. I actually still think Mrs. Doubtfire could potentially get in the mix (there was a ton of love within the community for Something Rotten when it opened, Jerry Zaks has a great track record with the Tonys, several performers like Brad Oscar and even Rob McClure can be looked at as somewhat overdue, etc.). I'm certainly not predicting it to win Best Musical right now, but wouldn't at all be surprised if it ends up being more of a contender than most seem to be thinking."
Thank you broadway61004! You are very very right about Mrs. Doubtfire being a stronger contender than Flying Or other musicals for that matter. When I heard that York was doing it it gave me pause.... that’s why I also thought given all the reasons you mentioned that it may be more possible as of this time for Mrs. Doibtfire to be nominated. That’s the fun and beauty of predicting these awards - you can give sound judgement on who may or may not get in based of what you know about the musicals even when they haven’t been previewed. It is just fun to speculate at this point based on what information we have without being bias to a particular show we would like to be nominated or win.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 3:43pm
IMO Moulin Rouge is a Juggernaut. Whether it wins best musical is another issue. If it doesn't win for Direction, Choreography, Sets, Costumes, Lighting, Supporting Actor, we are in for a treat from at least one of the incoming musicals. IMO the sound quality was excellent, but it was too damned loud.
Similarly, I do not know if The Sound Inside will win Best Play, Mary Louise Parker Best Actress, or the woman with the British husband in Slave Play (whose name I can still not remember) will win Best Supporting Actress. If they do not, there is real brilliance yet to come in those categories.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 3:51pm
Jarethan said: "I do not know if The Sound Inside will win Best Play, Mary Louise Parker Best Actress, or the woman with the British husband in Slave Play (whose name I can still not remember) will win Best Supporting Actress. If they do not, there isreal brilliance yet to come in those categories.
"
This is a really rich Broadway season for plays, but at this moment in the race Parker and Joaquina Kalukango are my personal favorites for Actress and Featured Actress, too.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 4:06pm
Is Kalukango Featured? I would've assumed she was Leading. Based on that thinking, I would've had Annie McNamara as a front runner in the Featured Actress category.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 4:18pm
givesmevoice said: "Is Kalukango Featured? I would've assumed she was Leading. Based on that thinking, I would've had Annie McNamara as a front runner in the Featured Actress category."
She will be in the Featured category unless the Tony nominating committee decides to bump her up to Actress (which I assume would go for Paul Alexander Nolan, too). I think it's entirely possible that Kalukango's category placement changes, but for now she's Featured until / unless we hear otherwise. Strategically, it might be harder for Kalukango to get into Actress, but it would solve the challenge of having so many contenders from one play vying for slots in Featured.
Posted: 10/29/19 at 8:10pm
Markie27 said: "Thank you call_me_jorge! This is a way way too early predictions thread which obviously will change once every show is seen. I’m just basing these winners on glowing reviews in the west end (a Christmas carol) and if the character is an award winning role (take me out). - obviously if Jesse f#cks this up then he won’t win the Tony (although I think he will do an excellent job).
I am not saying that Moulin Rouge also is the best musical there is this season. I just can’t see (for now) that there isan underdog musical likeFun Home or Avenue Q that can beat out the juggernaut that is Moulin Rouge. Ofcourse everything would change if Flying Over Sunset would turn out to be a work of art and be completely moving like Fun Home or if Girl from the North Country and Six can give a very remarkable campaign like Avenue Q did to topple such a Wicked-like big budget production musical. And then there is Diana and Jagged that maysurprise everyone and improve significantly their book and/or music to pose a threat. Or if Mrs. Doubfire turn out be be more that just anothertootsie.
So yeah it’s a way way too early predictions thread. I thoughtit wasunderstood that we take all of this with a grain of salt. It was meant for fun and seehow very wrong we are in the end."
So much fun to predict early in the game for Musical ~
Girl from the North Country
Jagged Litle Pill
Flying Over Sunset
Mrs. Doubtfire
Posted: 10/29/19 at 9:25pm
Posted: 10/30/19 at 1:05am
''IMO Moulin Rouge is a Juggernaut. Whether it wins best musical is another issue. If it doesn't win for Direction, Choreography, Sets, Costumes, Lighting, Supporting Actor, we are in for a treat from at least one of the incoming musicals.''
I'd also consider ''Moulin Rouge!'' a strong contender for Sound, Orchestrations and Actor in a Musical. To me, Aaron Tveit is far more overdue than Rob McClure. I haven't heard McClure sing in ''Mrs. Doubtfire,'' but ''Moulin'' really showcases Tveit's vocals.
''Katrina Lenk better win or else I’m going to be very upset.''
Why be upset about that? Lenk just won for ''The Band's Visit.'' Actress in a Musical sounds like it's gonna be one of the toughest races: Sharon D. Clarke (''Caroline, or Change'' ); Adrienne Warren (''Tina'' ); Karen Olivo (''Moulin Rouge!'' ); Carmen Cusack (''Flying Over Sunset'' ); Celia Gooding (''Jagged Little Pill'' ); Jeanna de Waal (''Diana'' ); Shereen Pimentel (''West Side Story'' ). And Lenk, too!.
That said, it is SO early, and there are still SO many question marks. Will ''Sing Street'' move to Broadway? Or ''Scotland, Pa.''? Or ''Almost Famous''? If so, will Tom Kitt will have TWO Tony-nominated scores? And he orchestrated ''Jagged Little Pill''!
Updated On: 10/30/19 at 01:05 AM
Posted: 10/30/19 at 3:33am
I was surprised at how much I loved Moulin Rouge- it was one of the most entertaining shows I have ever seen- and I mean EVER. It was not deep or thought provoking- but it was entertainment in its purest form- and I totally loved it- and would give it Best Musical in a second- a once in several years sensation.
Girl From The North Country is a dreary piece of theater if I ever saw one- I did not care for it at all in London- and high doubt it will win Best Musical- it also was not particularly thought provoking though it did show a slice of life during the depression- sad yes- but very one-note- and the characters in it did not move me at all- I guess that is why I did not care for it. Just my two cents- many people do like it though- not me.
Posted: 10/31/19 at 2:53am
''['Moulin Rouge!'] will be a massive hit. Critics I think are not going to play a role in its success. … People see a sell out $ making hit, they assume its good, and grab a ticket alongside it. Moulin Rouge is certainly the closest we've gotten to a "juggernaut" since DEH.''
''Moulin Rouge!'' IS a massive hit. It's the highest-grossing new show of this season (so far), raking in over $2 million a week. It's doing 120% of its gross potential, and the average ticket price is $209. As for critics, the most high-profile one, Ben Brantley, gave it a rave review and made it a New York Times pick.
But let's give credit where credit is due. A stage version of ''Moulin Rouge!'' wasn't a slam dunk; in the wrong hands, it could've bombed. Alex Timbers and his creative team and the cast put on a loving and lavish show that succeeds for many people. It's not a carbon copy of Baz Luhrmann's movie; it amps up its music and turns it into a crowd-pleasing, stage spectacle that combines heart and art. That's why ''Moulin Rouge!'' is a box-office juggernaut. Frankly, I don't believe people blindly pay these kind of prices for any musical ''they assume is good.'' ''Moulin Rouge!'' has generated great word of mouth, and that's why it's such a smash..
Updated On: 10/31/19 at 02:53 AM
Posted: 10/31/19 at 9:03am
stoptheworld38 said: "Katrina Lenk better win or else I’m going to be very upset. "
Bobby is not a great role, beyond Being Alive. S/he is an observer for most of the show.
I have no doubt she will be excellent in the role but...and since you haven’t even seen her...seems like a little premature perspective. At least wait til you have seen her.
Posted: 10/31/19 at 9:09am
Jarethan said: "stoptheworld38 said: "Katrina Lenk better win or else I’m going to be very upset. "
Bobby is not a great role, beyond Being Alive. S/he is an observer for most of the show.
I have no doubt she will be excellent in the role but...and since you haven’t even seen her...seems like a little premature perspective. At least wait til you have seen her."
The thread is titled "Way too early 2020 Tony Predictions" so of course all of this is premature. Thats, like, the point of this thread. I don't disagree about the role of Bobby not being insanely special for a tony, but this is the kind of speculation this thread is for lol.
Also, lets just appreciate right now that the competition come tony night may be HIGHLY competitive this year. Best revival of a play is pretty stacked, as well as Revival of a musical (Caroline/Company), and new musical (Potentially all 4 nominees being contenders with Moulin Rouge, Six, A Girl From North Country, and Flying Over Sunset, maybe JLP too). Should be a fun season!
Posted: 10/31/19 at 2:07pm
Posted: 10/31/19 at 11:52pm
PianoMann said: "givesmevoice said: "Is Kalukango Featured? I would've assumed she was Leading. Based on that thinking, I would've had Annie McNamara as a front runner in the Featured Actress category."
She will bein the Featured category unless the Tony nominating committee decides to bump her up to Actress (which I assume would go for Paul Alexander Nolan, too). I think it'sentirely possible that Kalukango's category placement changes, but for now she's Featured until / unlesswe hear otherwise. Strategically, it might be harder for Kalukango to get into Actress, but it would solve the challenge of having so many contenders from one play vying for slots in Featured.
"
Do you think that Kalukango and Nolan might be bumped up to leads simply because they appear in the "third act" of the play, which is raw and intense giving them much more content to perform (although Nolan's performance is rather limited in the "second act" and Kalukango has few lines but speaks volumes in body language). If they are bumped up to lead recognition, I certainly see Kalukango being a contender but think Nolan would be a long shot for a nomination.
Posted: 11/1/19 at 12:03am
