2024 Tony Awards- Page 8

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:49pm

dramamama611 said: "MayAudraBlessYou - thank you for that insight, appreciated.



I don't see a scenario that DOWAR doesn't get nominated. Win? No. Nominated? Without a doubt. (in my mind)"

I think Kelli and Brian have a much better chance than the show of a nomination. It'll probably get a Score nomination but I'd be very surprised if it gets a Best Musical nom

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 12:51pm

ElephantLoveMedley said: "I thinkthe overwhelming majority of the musical awards this season will go to eitherCabaretorMerrily. The only one I could maybe see falling to a new musical would be Lead Actress. But I see Lead Actor, Featured Actor, Featured Actress, Direction, Scenic Design, Lighting Design, Sound Design,Choreography, and Orchestrations all going toeitherCabaretorMerrily."

I think Back to the Future could snag one of the technical awards and I think Choreography could go a lot of directions besides Cabaret

[Broadway Flash]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 1:10pm

Back to the future better be nominated for lighting and choreo.  I don’t understand how people who think water for elephants is more worthy of Best Musical than Gatsby.  Jesse Green must have really influenced you all.  Let’s see what the critics say about Gatsby, but i don’t know how much weight their reviews have with the Tony committee either way. 

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 1:13pm

My prediction/feelings on Best Musical:

- Notebook

- Elephants

- Outsiders

- Illisnoise

- Hells Kitchen

Updated On: 4/4/24 at 01:13 PM

[Wick3]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 1:25pm

jkcohen626 said: "MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "As of right now I think these look likeliest for Best Musical:

Suffs

Illinoise

The Outsiders

They will be joined by 2--3 of these (probably):

Hell's Kitchen

Here Lies Love

The Notebook

Water for Elephants

Lempicka"

I think you're spot on with both your predictions and the analysis. I do think Wine and Roses could be up there for a nom too. I'm so curious how Here Lies Love does. It's still my favorite musical of the season, but IDK how the nominators received it. I think it has to get noms for direction, sets, lighting, and sound.I also have Conrad Ricamora getting a nomination in my predictions right now. But, I really don't know what to think in it's chances for Musical or Score."

I, too, loved Here Lies Love and managed to see it multiple times during its run. I wish it had opened in the spring (right now) or spring last year which seemed to be less competitive.

My understanding is each member of the Nominating committee can list 4 musicals in their ballot for Best musical? 

[CathyM3]

Posted: 4/4/24 at 6:55pm

Broadway Flash said: "Everyone seems to agree Suffs, Outsiders, and Illinoise get in. I think the rest is a toss up but I feel like people are discounting back to the future, Gatsby and wine and roses."

Frankly, I’m surprised to see Outsiders getting so much praise. I saw in La Jolla, and again in previews, and felt the storytelling was really lacking. There were definitely improvements from my first viewing but the preview performance still felt disjointed. Seems solid acting was traded for lots of song and dance, which might be fine for some shows but not an iconic, deeply moving story like this. 

[BeingAlive44Ever]

Posted: 4/5/24 at 12:59pm

I find it very interesting to consider who might win which awards. I mean, despite the mixed and even negative reception of Harmony, most people agree Chip Zien was giving a really excellent performance and basically carrying the show on his back, and if that isn't enough to win Best Featured Actor I don't know what is. He's never had a Tony nomination, not for Falsettos, not for Into the Woods, not for anything. He's in his seventies now and still so dedicated and constantly improving himself as a performer and I admire him greatly. Even though there are lots of other great featured actors in all of the shows on Broadway right now, and of course Daniel Radcliffe is almost certainly going to get his first nomination this year, I really am rooting all the way for Chip Zien for that category. He better at least get nominated. I'll be real upset if he's not. 

Leading actor is also interesting. I want Jonathan Groff to win. I know, how strange for somebody so passionate about an oldschool, semi obscure performer like Chip to also want probably the single most mainstream performer eligible for the Leading Actor award to win. But I think that he's really earned it. There are some roles in that show, such as Charlie and Beth, that I think have been played much better in the past. But Jonathan Groff is giving my personal favorite Franklin Shepard ever, and I think that, on his third nomination, he really has a good shot at winning. It wouldn't be as exciting for me as Chip winning, though. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/5/24 at 3:33pm

I believe Harmony petitioned for Chip Zien to be eligible in Lead Actor. Of course, the Tony administration makes the final call, and the can and do go against producers' wishes sometimes. Either way, I do think he will be remembered with a nomination (probably the only one for Harmony). But winning for a closed performance in a musical is extremely rare (its a little easier for actors in closed plays to win), so the nomination will probably be the reward.

Which reminds me: where on EARTH are the next round of eligibility rulings? And does anyone know why they went from 4 eligibility meetings to 3? 

[BeingAlive44Ever]

Posted: 4/5/24 at 5:23pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "I believe Harmony petitioned for Chip Zien to be eligible in Lead Actor. Of course, the Tony administration makes the final call, and the can and do go against producers' wishes sometimes. Either way, I do think he will be remembered with a nomination (probably the only one for Harmony). But winning for a closed performance in a musical is extremely rare (its a little easier for actors in closed plays to win), so the nomination will probably be the reward.

Which reminds me: where on EARTH are the next round of eligibility rulings? And does anyone know why they went from 4 eligibilitymeetings to 3?"

I don't blame you for missing this, but I'm fairly certain that the Tony committee already ruled that Chip Zien is considered a Featured Actor, I'm fairly sure. I could be wrong but I'm like 90% sure I had a discussion about it on this very Subject somewhere in here. I agree that it's unlikely he'll win, which is unfortunate but I suppose inevitable. I am almost 100% certain that, with the reviews he's gotten and the sheer importance he has to the Broadway community, he will get a nomination, but sometimes things are weird. Kristin Chenoweth not getting a nomination for The Apple Tree still baffles me. 

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 4/5/24 at 5:29pm

BeingAlive44Ever said: "I don't blame you for missing this, but I'm fairly certain that the Tony committee already ruled that Chip Zien is considered a Featured Actor, I'm fairly sure. I could be wrong but I'm like 90% sure I had a discussion about it on this very Subject somewhere in here.I agree that it's unlikely he'll win, which is unfortunate but I suppose inevitable. I am almost 100% certain that, with the reviews he's gotten and the sheer importance he has to the Broadway community, he will get a nomination, but sometimes things are weird. Kristin Chenoweth not getting a nomination for The Apple Tree still baffles me."

There's only been one eligibility ruling and Harmony was not covered.  I definitely see Chip as the lead as well (though until they rule he'll be "defaulted" to featured since he's not above the title).

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/5/24 at 6:00pm

I think they'll be successful in petitioning Chip to Lead Actor. No way he wins either category but I would be very happy for him to get his first Tony nom ever. It's so overdue. He should have gotten a nomination for The Baker in 1988.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 9:36am

BeingAlive44Ever said:

I don't blame you for missing this, but I'm fairly certain that the Tony committee already ruled that Chip Zien is considered a Featured Actor, I'm fairly sure. I could be wrong but I'm like 90% sure I had a discussion about it on this very Subject somewhere in here.I agree that it's unlikely he'll win, which is unfortunate but I suppose inevitable. I am almost 100% certain that, with the reviews he's gotten and the sheer importance he has to the Broadway community, he will get a nomination, but sometimes things are weird. Kristin Chenoweth not getting a nomination for The Apple Tree still baffles me."

I didn't miss anything. They haven't ruled on Harmony yet. Hence my comment wondering about when the next round of rulings are going to be released. They used to have 4 meetings a season to make these determinations, but the past couple years they have reduced it to 3 for some reason.

I dont think Zien can win in either category, but I do think he can manage a nomination in either.

Lead Actor has Groff, Redmayne, d'Arcy James, and Bourzgui all looking strong. The fifth slot is likely down to Chip Zien vs. Brody Grant (or if they bump Harewood or Vasquez to lead from The Notebook, they would be competitive too).

Featured Actor is very open. I think Radcliffe looks secure, but the rest could go any number of ways. Paul Alexander Nolan and Steven Skybell and probably next in line. But the rest could come from Harewood, Ricamora, Ubeda, Bart, Dixon, Slater, or maybe one of the Outsiders guys.

[Broadway Flash]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 10:34am

Wow you’re forgetting key people like Jeremy Jordan, Casey Likes, Corey Cott, Andrew Rannells, Josh Gad.  I don’t think Bourzgui is lead, is he?  
I also think that the two guys from back to the future both get in  Roger Bart, Huge Coles. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 1:50pm

Broadway Flash said: "Wow you’re forgetting key people like Jeremy Jordan, Casey Likes, Corey Cott, Andrew Rannells, Josh Gad. I don’t think Bourzgui is lead, is he?
I also think that the two guys from back to the future both get in Roger Bart, Huge Coles."

Rannells and Gad are going to cancel each other out, I'm afraid. Jordan and Cott would have to get phenomenal notices to even be in the running. I have a better chance of being nominated for sitting on my couch than Likes does for Back to the Future.

[CJRochester]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 2:57pm

Ali Bourzgui and Brody Grant play the leading roles in their respective shows, but are not above the title. They would default to being considered as Featured unless petitioned (same as for Chip in Harmony). I wonder if producers of these shows will want to consider it more strategic to keep these stars as Featured due to the stronger competition in the Leading Actor category. 

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 3:36pm

Broadway Flash said: "Wow you’re forgetting key people like Jeremy Jordan, Casey Likes, Corey Cott, Andrew Rannells, Josh Gad. I don’t think Bourzgui is lead, is he?
I also think that the two guys from back to the future both get in Roger Bart, Huge Coles."

neither Coles or Bart will be getting in. B2TF will be nominated for the few standard technical categories and that's it.

With Skybell and Radcliffe sure locks, (and honestly, at this point Paul Alexander Nolan) there aren't nominations to throw around for performances in a musical like that constantly burning dumpster fire sitting in the Winter Garden.

 

Updated On: 4/6/24 at 03:36 PM

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 10:38pm

For what it's worth, the Outer Critics Circle and the Drama Desk each nominated Chip Zien (''Harmony'' ) for Outstanding Actor in a Musical in 2022.

Not that the Tonys necessarily follow other precursors ... 

Updated On: 4/6/24 at 10:38 PM

[chewy5000]

Posted: 4/6/24 at 11:20pm

In regards to clearly leading actors who are not above the title, if the producers of a show choose not to petition, can the nominating committee make the change anyway? Surely they wouldn’t reward sneaky attempts at ‘category fraud’

[BentleyB]

Posted: 4/7/24 at 3:37am

Broadway Flash said: "Wow you’re forgetting key people like Jeremy Jordan, Casey Likes, Corey Cott, Andrew Rannells, Josh Gad. I don’t think Bourzgui is lead, is he?
I also think that the two guys from back to the future both get in Roger Bart, Huge Coles."

Casey Likes????  Will it be for Best Actor in a Musical imitating Michael J. Fox?  Does BTTF pay you in t-shirts?

[Broadway Flash]

Posted: 4/7/24 at 3:47am

He gave a great performance.  As did the featured men in the show as well

[CJRochester]

Posted: 4/7/24 at 9:40am

chewy5000 said: "In regards to clearly leading actors who are not above the title, ifthe producers of a show choose not to petition, can the nominating committee make the change anyway? Surely they wouldn’t reward sneaky attempts at ‘category fraud’" 

I'm not sure who you are referring to. I think most of the names mentioned are clearly leading actors who are not big enough stars to warrant being above the title. 

 

[LuckyDipster]

Posted: 4/7/24 at 1:29pm

Falsettolands said: "that constantly burning dumpster fire sitting in the Winter Garden."

The longer BTTF runs, the happier I am that it is peeing off all the snooty gits who don't like it. 

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 4/7/24 at 4:22pm

LuckyDipster said: "Falsettolands said: "that constantly burning dumpster fire sitting in the Winter Garden."

The longer BTTF runs, the happier I am that it is peeing off all the snooty gits who don't like it."

May it run for years and years. Just don't give it a Tony Award :)

[LuckyDipster]

Posted: 4/7/24 at 5:18pm

Falsettolands said: "May it run for years and years. Just don't give it a Tony Award :)"

😄

That's ok.  It wasn't designed for that.

 

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 4/7/24 at 9:05pm

The Tonys have the discretion to do whatever they want. Just as they can bump up below-the-title performers to the leading category, they can bump down above-the-title performers to the featured category - whether or not the shows petition or not. Example: ''Sondheim on Sondheim'' had Barbara Cook above the title, so she was submitted for Best Actress in a Musical, but the Tonys disagreed and bumped her down to Featured. Conversely, the 2012 revival of ''Evita'' starred Ricky Martin above the title, but petitioned to have him compete in Featured (the same category in which Mandy Patinkin won), and the Tonys agreed to make Martin eligible there (but he didn't get nominated). 

Of course, Tony rulings are far from infallible. One of the most puzzling (to me) involved ''Newsies.'' They ruled Jeremy Jordan, Kara Lindsay and Ben Fankhauser were all eligible for Leading. Of course, Jordan was a slam-dunk choice as Jack Kelly, but I'd argue the size of Lindsay's role as Katherine is more Featured, especially when compared to the leading ladies who WERE nominated (i.e., Audra McDonald in ''Porgy & Bess,'' Jan Maxwell in ''Follies,'' Laura Osnes in ''Bonnie & Clyde,'' Kelli O'Hara in ''Nice Work If You Can Get It'' and Cristin Milioti in ''Once'' ). And in what universe could Fankhauser's role as Davey, Jack's sidekick and pal, be considered Leading? He sings the beginning of ''Seize the Day'' and has no solo songs. Fankhauser, who was wonderful, should've been in Featured and nominated.

Updated On: 4/7/24 at 09:05 PM