2024 Tony Awards — Page 9

They really need to get rid of this above/below the title BS and just focus on the roles. Then they can replace Featured categories with “Supporting.”

Ali Bourzgui is going to fill the "promising rising star" slot in the Tony lineup. There often is one. He got incredible reviews. Tommy was deemed a featured back in 93 because back then it was much rarer for the Tonys to move someone into a category that went against their billing. Cerveris was not a star at that point, and was billed below the title. But nowadays, they tend to chuck billing all the time and just focus on if someone was a lead or supporting player in the story.

Likes and Cott will not be nominated. If you think they have a better shot than Ali...then you clearly don't understand how this all works. The Gutenberg duo has a shot. Jordan has a sizeable role and sings well, but its a role in a show that will not be nominated for Best Musical, which will hurt his chances. So Ali definitely has better odds than them.

The Tonys have become far better about aligning leading and supporting roles with the appropriate categories, particularly after such embarrassing things like putting Mary Beth Peil in featured actress for the ‘85 revival of The King and I for playing Anna. I can’t really recall a modern precedent for a clear lead being put in featured or vice versa because of billing.

The promising rising star slot could be filled with Casey Likes or Brody Grant as well. I'm not even convinced that Tommy will be nominated

If there aren't any ties for any of the slots, I strongly believe this year's best musical nominees will be Illinoise, The Outsiders, Suffs, Hell's Kitchen, and Days of Wine and Roses.

Updated On: 4/9/24 at 03:05 PM

Kad said: "The Tonys have become far better about aligning leading and supporting roles with the appropriate categories, particularly after such embarrassing things like putting Mary Beth Peil in featured actress for the ‘85 revival of The King and I for playing Anna. I can’t really recall a modern precedent for a clear lead being put in featured or vice versa because of billing."

The most egregious case of misalignment I recall was about 20 years ago with "Hollywood Arms". Michelle Pawk was nominated, and won, for Featured Actress in a Play. She was clearly the leading role. Linda Lavin was the above-the-title star, but had only a supporting role.

Im kind of thinking some winners will be:

Best Musical: The Outsiders

Best Revival: Merrily We Roll Along

Best Actor Musical: Jonathan Groff (or tie with Eddie Redmayne)

Best Feature Actor Musical: Daniel Radcliffe

Best Actress Musical: not too sure on this one would Lindsey Mendez be considered featured??

Best Featured Actress Musical: Bebe Neuwirth

Best Lighting Design: Cabaret

Best Scenic Design: Cabaret

Best Director: Merrily We Roll Along

Best Score: The Outsiders

There will be 4 nominees for Musical Revival.

There are 6 eligible shows, which yields a guaranteed 4 nominees. There would need to be at least 9 eligible productions in order to yield 5. With their new-ish rules around ties, we could technically see a 5th nominee in this category if there is a tie for 4th place.

I would personally swap out The Wiz for Gutenberg in your 4 predictions. Gutenberg was loved all around, while The Wiz will likely only be praised for its performances, but receive some harsh critiques for the "bus and truck" production values.



I continue to think there will be a tie in the Best Musical voting and we will see at least 6 nominees, instead of 5. I think Illinoise, Suffs, and The Outsiders feel like the ones with enough buzz to maybe win. Then the other two slots are near impossible to figure out. Hell's Kitchen, Here Lies Love, Water for Elephants, The Notebook, Days of Wine and Roses are all within striking distance (maybe Gatsby too? Haven't caught that one yet but heard "meh" things. And I'm not expecting great notices for Lempicka today...then again critics have gone opposite my expectations for most shows this season). And the rules state that for production categories, ties for the last place slot only need to be within 10%, not exact ties. With opinion all over the place this year, it is incredibly likely that the shows in 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, place might all be within 4 or 5 overall votes of one another.

^ I hope you are right - but never say never!



I also think that DOWAR is a shoe in. It won't win, which saddens me, as it's the musical I've thought was most outstanding of the season, without having yet seen Illinoise (I'll be at opening), but nearly everything else.

I don't think Wine and Roses is a shoe in at all. It's the type of "sophisticated" piece that critics will fawn over. But there is not a single critic in the nominating committee. And the industry had a much more polarized reaction to that show. Some folks walked away loving it, others absolutely loathed it, and it had fairly negative word of mouth. In a nominating body of 50ish people, how many are in the love it camp or the hate it camp? I think its very much a coin toss. It also doesn't help that the show is closed, and industry folks are very aware that this is the category which can actually boost sales...something every single open production will definitely need.

Kelli and Brian are in for acting. Guettel might get into score on his name alone (The "hate it" camp largely point towards the score as their biggest gripe). But that could be it for nominations.



The Notebook is the reverse case. It was bashed by critics but audiences have adored it. It's story is more appealing that Wine and Roses. I would say it has 3 competitive performances for nominations, plus will likely see a few design nominations. I think its basically on equal footing with Wine and Roses (plus Elephants, plus Hells Kitchen, plus Here Lies Love) in terms of nomination chances. That is what makes this year so hard to figure out. None of these are a slam dunk

For Revival, obviously Cabaret and Merrily are locks. I think Tommy is pretty close to a lock too. After that, it comes down to Gutenberg and The Wiz for me. I don't think Spamalot will get it. Gutenberg was better received than The Wiz probably will be but it is closed and the Tonys often like to reward diversity (moreso than other awards shows). So I maybe lean slightly towards The Wiz as the fourth nominee but Gutenberg wouldn't surprise me and I may change my mind before making my final predictions.

I think anyone who thinks Days of Wine and Roses is a shoo-in for a Best Musical nomination is going to be sorely disappointed. Brian and Kelli have a great shot to get noms and the Score of course. But the actual musical? Even with so many shows getting mixed to negative reviews, it's real hard for a closed show to get in when there are so many open. It's the same problem Here Lies Love has.

DramaTeach said: "I honestly don’t see a world where they can leave out The Wiz. It’s the only musical with a predominantly Black cast, and, whether the show deserves the nomination or not, it would be bad optics to leave it out. This is obviously between Cabaret and Merrily though."



If it isn't worthy of a nomination then it shouldn't be nominated. Optics or no optics. JMO

Mr. Wormwood said: "uncageg said: "DramaTeach said: "I honestly don’t see a world where they can leave out The Wiz. It’s the only musical with a predominantly Black cast, and, whether the show deserves the nomination or not, it would be bad optics to leave it out. This is obviously between Cabaret and Merrily though."



If it isn't worthy of a nomination then it shouldn't be nominated. Optics or no optics. JMO

"

That might be true philosophically but it's not always true in reality"



Yes, we know this. That is why I said JMO - Just My Opinion.