Hamilton - How Many Tonys Will It Bag- Page 3

[vfd88]

Posted: 10/17/15 at 11:01am

I always see people predicting Arden to win Director while also predicting Hamilton to sweep, and I really just don't see how that's possible.  If Hamilton does win the 8-13 awards that everyone seems to be predicting it to, I don't see them passing over Thomas Kail to give it to the director of a long-closed revival.  Personally, I'd be happy to see either of them win, but I just can't foresee a situation in which Kail doesn't win.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 10/17/15 at 12:11pm

It warms my heart that someone made the Jan Maxwell reference. It was the very first thing I thought of when I saw this thread title. 

 

Re: where it came from, besides the explanation provided above, there was also a rather amusing thread years back whose title was "Does Jan Maxwell already have the Tony in her bag?" which led to some of the funniest responses I've read on this site. I'm sure if you searched you could find it. 

[ChiTheaterFan]

Posted: 10/17/15 at 1:02pm

I am just looking forward to seeing the show on Tony Tuesday, since I'm sure there will be some wins!!

Updated On: 10/17/15 at 01:02 PM

[MaddieBB12]

Posted: 10/17/15 at 1:15pm

Re: Groff and stage time: Andrea Martin in Pippin was onstage in the ensemble for Magic To Do and then the finale, and then for No Time at All. Groff has his three spotlight moments and then is in the ensemble (ish) for Reynolds Pamphlet. I'd say they are pretty equal in stage time and not only was Martin nominated but she won. (Mind you, Groff isn't 65 and doing acrobatics, but the stage time is comparable).

[dramamama611]

Posted: 10/17/15 at 1:57pm

I adore Groff in the role, but really don't see him grabbing a Tony over the other very fine performances in his own show.  Honestly, Daveed or Oak are doing much more impressive e work, IMO.

[ChiTheaterFan]

Posted: 10/17/15 at 8:30pm

I doubt Groff will win but I think he has a shot at a nomination. I mean there have been winners in the featured category who have had very small but memorable parts. I agree Diggs is more likely to get the win in this case though. (Or certainly Odom if features, but I hope he's in lead.)

 

Looks like last year the first eligibility decisions were announced in November. Should we expect the same timing this year?

[swanjewel]

Posted: 10/17/15 at 8:58pm

MaddieBB12 said: "Re: Groff and stage time: Andrea Martin in Pippin was onstage in the ensemble for Magic To Do and then the finale, and then for No Time at All. Groff has his three spotlight moments and then is in the ensemble (ish) for Reynolds Pamphlet. I'd say they are pretty equal in stage time and not only was Martin nominated but she won. (Mind you, Groff isn't 65 and doing acrobatics, but the stage time is comparable).

He's also in the ensemble for "Who Lives, Who Dies, Who Tells Your Story". I can't remember if he's in anything else between The Reynolds Pamphlet and Who Lives...

 

[funhamilton_rent]

Posted: 10/18/15 at 12:54pm

I think that it will get nominated for

Best Musical (WIN)

Best Book (WIN)

Best Score (WIN)

Best Leading Actor - Lin Manuel Miranda

Best Leading Actor - Leslie Odom, Jr. (WIN)

Best Leading Actress - Phillipa Soo (WIN)

Best Featured Actor - Daveed Diggs (WIN)

Best Featured Actor - Jonathan Groff

Best Featured Actor - Christopher Jackson

Best Featured Actress - Renée Elise Goldsberry (WIN)

Best Direction (POSSIBLE WIN)

Best Scenic Design (WIN)

Best Costume Design (WIN)

Best Lighting Design (POSSIBLE WIN)

Best Choreography (WIN)

Best Orchestrations (WIN)

It sounds crazy, but I really wouldn't be surprised with these numbers (16 noms, 11-13 wins)

[JBroadway]

Posted: 10/18/15 at 1:52pm

Phillipa Soo, if she's in leading, will be competing against Cynthia Errivo, Audra McDonald, Jessie Mueller, Laura Benanti and Lea Salonga, all of whom (most likely) will be in roles which feature their talents well. Not saying she won't get nominated, but I think it's a long shot to predict a win for her, especially this early.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 10/18/15 at 2:08pm

I think Phillipa is a lock for a leading actress nomination, but against the competition she'll be facing, I'm not 100% optimistic she can pull a win. 

 

I do think, though, that the show can win lead actor, as well as featured actor and actress.

Updated On: 10/18/15 at 02:08 PM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 10/18/15 at 3:56pm

If Leslie Odom, Jr. ends up being eligible as a Leading Actor, what could this mean for Danny Burstein, who some people are hoping he'll finally win this year?
http://www.broadway.com/buzz/182440/video-watch-as-danny-burstein-more-fiddler-on-the-roof-stars-take-on-four-classic-numbers/

@JBroadway, Let's also not forget about Ana Villafane in On Your Feet! I think Lea Salonga may be eligible as a Featured Actress as opposed to Lead. Updated On: 10/18/15 at 03:56 PM

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 10/18/15 at 3:59pm

That's a great question, Jeffrey. My prediction is that Odom will be considered for leading, and Burstein v. Odom will be the biggie for this year's ceremony. Perhaps the answer will become more apparent once Fiddler eventually opens, though.

 

These kinds of speculative conversations will be so much more concrete once the Tony committee members can have their eligibility decision meetings!

[vfd88]

Posted: 10/18/15 at 5:50pm

If Burstein is nominated (I really don't see how he won't be), it'll be his 6th nomination with 0 wins so far, which is the exact same position Kelli O'Hara was in last year.  I could easily see voters rewarding him a) for what's sure to be a great performance, and b) to make up for the previous losses. In that case, I kind of hope they push Odom for featured actor just to give him a better chance.

He even has the same director that O'Hara had! 

[Theatre dweeb]

Posted: 10/18/15 at 9:08pm

All of them

 

ALL of them

 

ALL OF them

 

ALL OF THEM 

 

even best play

[miss pennywise]

Posted: 10/18/15 at 11:01pm

I predict that HAMILTON will get NO Tonys and Jan Maxwell will get ALL of them.

[rcwr]

Posted: 10/18/15 at 11:09pm

I predict that HAMILTON will get NO Tonys and Jan Maxwell will get ALL of them.

 

Her acceptance speech will include the line, "Bag, I amaze and astonish."

[ajh]

Posted: 10/19/15 at 12:36pm

Am addicted to the OBCR but won't be seeing the show itself until June 2016 (which seems a hell of long way off) so I have a question......does the double role Jasmine Cephas Jones plays make significantly less impact in the theatre than the Eliza of Soo and Angelica of Goldsberry?  I ask as she doesn't really come up in the possible Tony noms discussions. She sounds fabulous on the recording, but then again they all do.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 10/19/15 at 12:41pm

ajh said: "does the double role Jasmine Cephas Jones plays make significantly less impact in the theatre than the Eliza of Soo and Angelica of Goldsberry? "

 

Yes, Jones' role is significantly smaller. Peggy only appears in one number, as does Maria Reynolds. Correct me if I'm wrong (haven't seen the show since April - at the Public) but isn't Jones also in the ensemble when she's not playing those 2 roles? It would only make sense that she would be, given that her roles are so small. Seems to me more like a featured ensemble track (a la the Doctor or Michael in Matilda)

[ChiTheaterFan]

Posted: 10/19/15 at 12:41pm

Her role as Peggy is very small and she really just has the one song as Maria. It is a much smaller role than the others. I think she's fantastic but the size of the role doesn't give her the opportunity to make the impact of Soo and Goldsberry. And it's not like Groff where even though it's a small role it's a real focal point. 

 

I doubt we'll see a nomination for her in light of the talent coming in this season but I also expect she has a very bright future. 

Updated On: 10/19/15 at 12:41 PM

[ajh]

Posted: 10/19/15 at 2:21pm

Thanks for clarifying, guys. I love her voice.

[Robbie2]

Posted: 10/19/15 at 3:11pm

6-9 TONY Awards

At this point, most likely Winning:

-MUSICAL
-Score

-Book

-Direction

-Choreography

-Orchestrations

Strong chance of Winning:

-Lighting

-2 Acting

I predict it will receive 12-14 Nominations

 

Updated On: 10/19/15 at 03:11 PM

[little_sally]

Posted: 10/19/15 at 3:23pm

Robbie2, do you not see it winning best musical?

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 10/19/15 at 4:37pm

As much as I love this show, I still think direction and choreography will go to spring awakening. Yes spring awakening will be long by tony nominations and the awards it's self, but isn't that what live theatre is, the nominatiors and voters should always have it in their memory.

[JerseyBoy25]

Posted: 10/19/15 at 4:42pm

Honest question about Hamilton. When The Producers opened on Broadway, everyone hailed it as a major hit. But as time went on, it became more apparent that the success it had from the starting gate did have to do with the show, but even more about the quality of Matthew Broderick and Nathan Lane's performances, along with Brad Oscar, Cady Huffman, Gary Beach and Roger Bart. Simply put, they made that show what it was. As new cast members replaced each other in the show, it was nearly impossible for them to match the original actor's performances. Does anyone think this could happen here? I haven't seen the show, have tickets for July, but it seems from all I've heard that Hamilton is more of an ensemble piece, unlike the Producers, which was definitely a more lead driven show with Lane and Broderick.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 10/19/15 at 4:44pm

JerseyBoy25 said: "but it seems from all I've heard that Hamilton is more of an ensemble piece, unlike the Producers, which was definitely a more lead driven show with Lane and Broderick."
 

Exactly.