I wouldn't be so sure about BBM winning Best Picture at the Oscars...the potential for backlash is enormous, and we haven't really seen what the film's reaction is going to be in middle America. The good news is that its the front runner to win - the bad news is that it's a small film, it's a gay film - and its dangerous to have such a risky movie as your front runner.
Anything can happen this year, which is very exciting indeed!
I agree, btw, that MUNICH received the biggest blow in losing out on a BP nod. KONG is a surprise darkhorse -- no one really saw it coming as a BP threat until about a week ago.
Wickedrocks,
I hate to correct you.. but "Million Dollar baby" had huge buzz from day one.
I totally agree with everything you said, Michael besides the fact that BBM is the front runner for Best Picture. As of now (for me) its a strong possibility but not a clear frontrunner. I would love to see Kong win it. It's incredible.
DAME: True in some aspects but it didn't have the awesomely strong buzz like films like THE AVIATOR or RAY. It was a quieter movie that most definitely would have flopped if not for the raves and Oscar buzz.
The first hour of King Kong dragged. And I like the way they are selling Brokeback. This will be interesting.
From what I've read, the first hour of KONG is the reason why the rest of the film is so emotionally engaging.
My heart goes out to BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN: the worldwide impact of having a gay love story win the Oscar would be enormous. Besides, Peter Jackson already has a fair number of gold statuettes on his mantle.
I concede that my prediction is perhaps overly optimistic, though. America's religious right is waiting to pounce. This is "the deep breath before the plunge."
Broadway Legend Joined: 9/3/04
Frankly, the Academy isn't made up of members of the religious right, and the Academy has never felt under their thumb. I don't think that will play into the decision. I do think that hype has everything to do with it -- Brokeback has a possibility of being over-hyped.
Munich is my dark horse. I still doubt the Academy will give more than a nod to King Kong.
These nominations are terrible. I'm very disappointed with the HFP!!!! Usually I agree with the GG noms. Yuck.
The only omission I am upset about is Joan Allen in "Upside Of Anger." I think it is the best performance of the year. Why the studio is not campaigning on her behalf is beyond me.
DAME, you and I are in total agreement.
I liked her performance, but I wouldn't say it was better than the people they nominated.
I'm very upset that Claire Danes wasn't nominated at all.
Dame -- did you ever catch MUNICH? Thoughts?
Statistically, you have to be nominated for a GG Best Picture to win the Oscar for Best Picture. This is what bluey is trying to say. Technically, Munich and KK are out of the race. HOWEVER, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Academy shoot the finger at precedent and give the Oscar to KK anyway. They have been a rowdy bunch lately, so it's still POSSIBLE for KK to win.
The nominations were quite shocking. Oscarwatch.com has had to scurry in reordering their lists as even suspected frontrunners were knocked out of the game by these nominations. Some of the notable losers in Oscar buzz (though any of these especially ones that I am *ing could make a come back):
King Kong*
Munich
Crash*
Jake G - Brokeback*
Frank Langella - Good Night...*
Diane Keaton - Family Stone
Catherine Keener - Capote*
Joan Allen - Upside...*
I'm ecstatic for:
Brokeback Mountain, esp that Michelle Williams was remembered
Good Night, and Good Luck
Felicity Huffman - 2 noms!
George Clooney - 3 noms! (plus producing?)
Terrence Howard--should have had 2 noms, but tough year
Lackawanna Blues
Desperate Housewives
WEEDS!!!!
And notice that so many shows did not get nominated--Six Feet Under is the biggest shock. Will & Grace is not shocking though they always seemed to love Megan and Sean regardless.
Didn't Clooney get a third nom for the screenplay for Good Night, and Good Luck? Or am I having a stroke?
What the HELL is "THE MATADOR?"
oh sh!t. i was having a blonde moment. i know what MUNICH is about now.
you guys have to understand that in miami there are practically no flyers or billboards for upcoming films like there are in New York.
i have to either get on the 'net or turn on E!, access hollywood or entertainment tonight to keep up with what is what...
okay i'm up to speed, sorry for the threadjack
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/5/04
I've been seeing that damn unfunny Matador preview before movies for weeks now. Something about Brosnan being an ex-hit man and Greg Kinnear as ...... I don't know, it looks stupid and unfunny.
JRB -- people on Oscarwatch are always great about pulling out statistics -- and though they are always interesting (the relevent one here is that there hasnt been a BP winner that wasn't nominated for a GG since 1973's THE STING) the fabulous reality is that a statstic gets broken every year (last year M$B won BP without taking a single guild award).
So anything can really happen. Box office and audience support are going to counter or affirm what the critics have already said. AMPAS is more swayed by that then by the critics awards.
Isn't that what I have been saying Michael B??
Thank you for mentioning THE STING. Looks like we just may have that happen again--22 years later!
I'm very disappointed by the following snubs:
Claire Danes, SHOPGIRL
Ralph Fiennes, THE CONSTANT GARDENER
Robert Downey Jr., KISS KISS BANG BANG
Julianne Moore, THE PRIZE WINNER OF DEFIANCE OHIO
Clifton Collins Jf., CAPOTE
Jason Schwartzmann, SHOPGIRL
Hope Davis, PROOF
Brenda Blethyn, PRIDE AND PREJUDICE
Sandra Bullock, CRASH
Thandie Newton, CRASH
Li Gong, MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
Suzuka Ohgo, MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
And Claire Danes' performance was vastly superior to that of Keira Knightley...
I liked SHOPGIRL a lot, but I disagree about Danes being superior to Knightly, who is superb in P&P. Danes perhaps deserved a nod, but I'd have bumped Parker before Knightly.
I'm glad that Rachel Weisz was finally in something deserving of acclaim, since she is better than the material in 90% of the things I've seen her in.
Are you surprised as well as disappointed, Munk?
And Clooney is indeed a triple nominee.
Possibly a quadruple nominee--is he a producer on Good Night, and Good Luck?
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