2022 Tony Awards Predictions — Page 10

Here are my final predictions:

Best Musical

Girl from the North Country
MJ
Mr. Saturday Night
Six
A Strange Loop

Play

Dana H.
Hangmen
The Lehman Trilogy
The Minutes
Skeleton Crew

Musical Revival

Caroline, or Change
Company
The Music Man

Play Revival

for colored girls...
How I Learned to Drive
The Skin of Our Teeth
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind

Book of a Musical

Girl from the North Country (Conor McPherson)
Mr. Saturday Night (Billy Crystal, Lowell Ganz & Babaloo Mandel)
Paradise Square (Christina Anderson & Marcus Gardley)
Six (Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss)
A Strange Loop (Michael R. Jackson)

Lead Actress in a Musical

Sharon D. Clarke, Caroline, or Change
Carmen Cusack, Flying Over Sunset
Sutton Foster, The Music Man
Joaquina Kalukango, Paradise Square
Katrina Lenk, Company

Lead Actor in a Musical

Billy Crystal, Mr. Saturday Night
Myles Frost, MJ
Hugh Jackman, The Music Man
Rob McClure, Mrs. Doubtfire
Jaquel Spivey, A Strange Loop

Lead Actress in a Play

Gabby Beans, The Skin of Our Teeth
LaChanze, Trouble in Mind
Ruth Negga, Macbeth
Deirdre O'Connell, Dana H.
Mary-Louise Parker, How I Learned to Drive

Lead Actor in a Play

Simon Russell Beale, The Lehman Trilogy
Adam Godley, The Lehman Trilogy
David Morse, How I Learned to Drive
Sam Rockwell, American Buffalo
David Threlfall, Hangmen

Featured Actress in a Musical

Shoshana Bean, Mr. Saturday Night
L. Morgan Lee, A Strange Loop
Patti LuPone, Company
Jane Lynch, Funny Girl
Jennifer Simard, Company

Featured Actor in a Musical

Quentin Earl Darrington, MJ
Matt Doyle, Company
Claybourne Elder, Company
Jarred Grimes, Funny Girl
John-Andrew Morrison, A Strange Loop

Featured Actress in a Play

Uzo Aduba, Clyde's
Rachel Dratch, POTUS
Jessica Francis Dukes, Trouble in Mind
Kenita R. Miller, for colored girls...
Phylicia Rashad, Skeleton Crew

Featured Actor in a Play

Chuck Cooper, Trouble in Mind
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Take Me Out
Ron Cephas Jones, Clyde's
Michael Oberholtzer, Take Me Out
Austin Pendleton, The Minutes

Director (Musical)

Caroline, or Change (Michael Longhurst)
Company (Marianne Elliott)
Girl from the North Country (Conor McPherson)
Six (Lucy Moss & Jamie Armitage)
A Strange Loop (Stephen Brackett)

Director (Play)

for colored girls... (Camille A. Brown)
Hangmen (Matthew Dunster)
The Lehman Trilogy (Sam Mendes)
The Minutes (Anna D. Shapiro)
Take Me Out (Scott Ellis)

Score

Flying Over Sunset (Tom Kitt & Michael Korie)
The Lehman Trilogy (Nick Powell)
Paradise Square (Jason Howland, Nathan Tyson & Masi Asare)
Six (Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss)
A Strange Loop (Michael R. Jackson)

Choreography

for colored girls... (Camille A. Brown)
Funny Girl (Ellenore Scott)
MJ (Christopher Wheeldon)
The Music Man (Warren Carlyle)
Paradise Square (Bill T. Jones)

Scenic Design (Play)

Hangmen (Anna Fleishle)
The Lehman Trilogy (Es Devlin)
POTUS (Beowulf Boritt)
The Skin of Our Teeth (Adam Rigg)
Take Me Out (David Rockwell)

Scenic Design (Musical)

Caroline, or Change (Fly Davis)
Company (Bunny Christie)
Girl from the North Country (Rae Smith)
The Music Man (Santo Loquasto)
A Strange Loop (Arnulfo Maldonado)

Costume Design (Play)

Chicken & Biscuits (Dede Ayite)
Plaza Suite (Jane Greenwood)
The Skin of Our Teeth (Montana Levi Blanco)
The Lehman Trilogy (Katrina Lindsay)
Trouble in Mind (Emilio Sosa)

Costume Design (Musical)

Funny Girl (Susan Hilferty)
Girl from the North Country (Rae Smith)
Mrs. Doubtfire (Catherine Zuber)
The Music Man (Santo Loquasto)
Paradise Square (Toni-Leslie James)

Lighting Design (Play)

Dana H. (Paul Toben)
for colored girls... (Jiyoun Chang)
Hangmen (Joshua Carr)
The Lehman Trilogy (Jon Clark)
The MInutes (Brian MacDevitt)

Lighting Design (Musical)

Company (Neil Austin)
Girl from the North Country (Mark Henderson)
The Music Man (Brian MacDevitt)
Six (Tim Deiling)
A Strange Loop (Jen Schriever)

Sound Design (Play)

Dana H. (Mikhail Fiksel)
Hangmen (Ian Dickinson & For Autograph)
The Lehman Trilogy (Nick Powell & Dominic Bilkey)
The Minutes (André Pluess)
Take Me Out (Bray Poor)

Sound Design (Musical)

Caroline, or Change (Paul Arditti)
Company (Ian Dickinson)
Flying Over Sunset (Dan Moses Schreier)
Girl from the North Country (Simon Baker)
Six (Paul Gatehouse)

Orchestrations

Company (David Cullen)
Flying Over Sunset (Michael Starobin)
Girl from the North Country (Simon Hale)
Six (Tom Curran)
A Strange Loop (Charlie Rosen)

Shows by Noms:
11: Company
10: A Strange Loop
9: The Lehman Trilogy
8: Girl from the North Country
7: The Music Man, Six
6: Hangmen, Take Me Out
5: Caroline, or Change, for colored girls..., The Minutes, Paradise Square, Trouble in Mind
4: Dana H., Flying Over Sunset, Funny Girl, MJ, Mr. Saturday Night, The Skin of Our Teeth
3: How I Learned to Drive
2: Clyde's, Mrs. Doubtfire, POTUS, Skeleton Crew
1: American Buffalo, Chicken & Biscuits, Macbeth, Plaza Suite

I'm trying to finalize my predictions on Gold Derby ahead of the announcement tomorrow, and for some reason Jesse Williams isn't even listed as an option in Best Actor in a Play anymore.. was there some kind of eligibility thing that I missed, or is Gold Derby just being weird again?

At any rate, my predictions are, I think, bit riskier... mostly because I have no idea what I'm talking about. Some of the long shots I'm still married to are Flying Over Sunset in Best Musical & maybe Best Actress in a Musical, Pass Over in Best Play, and Jesse Williams & Ruben Santiago-Hudson in Best Actor

JMO:

I think The Lehman Trilogy will nab a Score nomination and bump Paradise Square out of the category.

I believe Samantha Williams gets a Featured Actress in a Musical nod - this is the same role that won Anika Noni Rose a Tony in 2004.


Count me in the camp that thinks Morrison and Lee will each get Featured Actor / Actress noms for A Strange Loop because the show will be getting so much Tony love.

Same with Company, as I believe Sieber gets nominated for Featured Actor along with Doyle and Elder.

If SIX does not get nominated for Costume Design of a Musical, it is most likely getting shut out of any awards… though that could easily be the case even with a nomination in this category.

Like I said before, Company will lead the musical pack in nominations, and eventually, wins. For plays, Lehman is the clear front runner for top honors, but do they lead in nominations? And who will take revival: Take Me Out or How I Learned to Drive?

Updated On: 5/8/22 at 01:18 PM

GoldDerby pundits post their final predictions for Tony nominations.

Sam Eckmann, David Buchanan (GoldDerby), Brian Scott Lipton (Cititour) and Michael Musto (Queerty, Village Voice) debate who'll make (or miss) the cut.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnPpGxbDpAQ

My final predictions:

https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/jkcohen626/tony-awards-nominations-2022-predictions/

This is my first time doing this, so I have no idea how it might shape out! I'm excited to finally know though! Looking forward to 9:00 am!!!

I would love to see Caissie Levy get in Featured Actress over Shoshana Bean.

The role Bean has does not match her talents and shouldn’t be the reason she finally gets her first Tony nod.

I also expect FOR COLORED GIRLS to be a big nominations darling - including a double nod for Camille Brown for directing and choreography