2022 Tony Awards Predictions- Page 6

[Robbie2]

Posted: 4/2/22 at 11:40pm

ElephantLoveMedley said: "My predictions for nominations in the musical acting categories (in order of likelihood of winning, in my humble opinion):

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Sharon D. Clarke - Caroline, or Change
2. Katrina Lenk - Company
3. Joaquina Kalukango - Paradise Square
4. Sutton Foster - The Music Man
5. Beanie Feldstein - Funny Girl
DARK HORSE #1: Carmen Cusack - Flying Over Sunset
DARK HORSE #2: Mare Winningham - Girl From the North Country

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
1. Jaquel Spivey - A Strange Loop
2. Hugh Jackman - The Music Man
3. Rob McClure - Mrs. Doubtfire
4. Billy Crystal - Mr. Saturday Night
5. Myles Frost - MJ The Musical
DARK HORSE: Ramin Karimloo - Funny Girl

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Patti LuPone - Company
2. Jennifer Simard - Company
3. Caissie Levy - Caroline, or Change
4. Jane Lynch - Funny Girl
5. Samantha Williams - Caroline, or Change

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
1. Matt Doyle - Company
2. Claybourne Elder - Company
3. Christopher Sieber - Company
4. Christopher Fitzgerald - Company
5. David Paymer - Mr. Saturday Night
DARK HORSE: Marc Kudisch - Girl From the North Country

And then, just for fun, my predictions for lead categories in a play:

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
1. Mary-Louise Parker - How I Learned to Drive
2. Deidre O’Connell - Dana H.
3. LaChanze - Trouble in Mind
4. Ruth Negga - Macbeth
5. Honestly really not sure here - could go to Ebony Marshall-Oliver, SJP, maybe someone in The Skin of Our Teeth, Debra Messing?

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY (What a dense category this year!)
1. David Morse - How I Learned to Drive
2. Adam Godley - The Lehman Trilogy
3. Simon Russell Beale - The Lehman Trilogy
4. Adrian Lester - The Lehman Trilogy
5. Daniel Craig - Macbeth
DARK HORSE #1: Laurence Fishburne - American Buffalo
DARK HORSE #2: David Threlfall - Hangmen
DARK HORSE #3: Ruben Santiago-Hudson - Lackawanna Blues"

 

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Sharon D. Clarke - Caroline, or Change
2. Katrina Lenk - Company
3. Joaquina Kalukango - Paradise Square
4. Sutton Foster - The Music Man
5. Carmen Cusack - Flying Over Sunset
DARK HORSE Beanie Feldstein - Funny Girl 

***I feel Carmen Cusack has an advantage over Beanie as she was nominated for ''Bright Star'' in 2016 but we'll know in 3 weeks after FG opens on 3/24!

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/3/22 at 12:45am

I think Houdyshell gets in, and Rockwell gets before Fishburne

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 4/3/22 at 1:58am

jkcohen626 said: "I wonder if Jane Houdyshell gets nominated for Music Man and I wouldn't want to see Claybourne Elder nominated, but I think your list is pretty spot on besides that!"

I think Houdyshell would’ve needed way better notices to get nominated for a role that’s really not a showcase.

Any guesses on Featured Actress in a Play? That’s the acting category I’m currently least sure of in terms of both nominees and the winner. Featured Actor though looks like probably either Chuck Cooper (from whose been seen) or Alfie Allen (from who hasn’t been seen). That’s assuming Allen’s role is supporting, as it’s been up for both lead and supporting awards before.

[kurtal]

Posted: 4/3/22 at 10:15am

Featured Actress in a Play is a really interesting one, especially with some of the surprising inclusions in this category (e.g. Uzo Aduba and Phylicia Rashad being in featured)

If I had to guess who's going to be nominated:

Uzo Aduba - Clyde's (although I'd nominate Kara Young if I had a vote)
Jessica Frances Dukes - Trouble in Mind
Phylicia Rashad - Skeleton Crew
Amber Gray - Macbeth
Kenita Miller - for colored girls... (although we'll see how the reviews go)

And I'd probably give Jessica Frank Dukes the edge for the win.

Potential spoilers include Kara Young (as mentioned above), Blair Brown & Jessie Mueller from The Minutes, maybe someone from POTUS, Priscilla Lopez from The Skin of our Teeth.

I loved Alana Raquel Bowers from Chicken & Biscuits, but I don't think she has a shot at a nom.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/3/22 at 11:22am

It’s interesting how many people are rooting against Claybourne Elder’s nomination. I thought he was the standout among the Company men in a harder role to be a standout than, say, Matt Doyle, whose song’s staging and not the performance is the highlight. I think Elder’s visibility among Tony royalty in The Gilded Age will help him see a nomination.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/3/22 at 11:26am

I haven't seen Macbeth yet, nor have have I been following the thread very closely. Is Amber Grey giving a particularly strong performance as Banquo? It's not a very awards-friendly role. 

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/3/22 at 11:31am

HeyMrMusic said: "It’s interesting how many people are rooting against Claybourne Elder’s nomination. I thought he was the standout among the Company men in a harder role to be a standout than, say, Matt Doyle, whose song’s staging and not the performance is the highlight. I think Elder’s visibility among Tony royalty in The Gilded Age will help him see a nomination."

Completely agree. Elder doesn’t have the flashiest role but he has probably the largest supporting male role in the show. He’s hilarious, and wisely underplays a lot of it, and has wonderful chemistry with Lenk.

I’ve said since the start I believe Doyle and Elder will both be nominated, but nominations for Fitzgerald and Sieber would be icing on the cake.

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 4/3/22 at 12:19pm

JBroadway said: "I haven't seen Macbeth yet, nor have have I been following the thread very closely. Is Amber Grey giving a particularly strong performance as Banquo? It's not a very awards-friendly role."

I mean I’ve heard her singled out a few times alongside Negga, but as you said it’s not an awards friendly role, and the current very negative reactions to this production definitely won’t help her.

I got to say, if they were gonna cast Gray in a male role, they should’ve genderbent the larger, stronger and more emotional part of Macduff, she could’ve been great in that part. Putting her as Banquo feels like a waste of her talent.

[Bryce 2]

Posted: 4/3/22 at 4:20pm

As much as I love Christopher Sieber, I don't see him sneaking into the Featured Actor category. Having 4 men from Company out of the 5 nominees just sounds too good to be true. I bet the Featured Actor category will end up being Doyle, Elder, Fitzgerald, Jefferson Mays, and Jared Grimes. Quentin Earl Darrington could possibly sneak in too

[BCfitasafiddle]

Posted: 4/6/22 at 4:39pm

Will all four musical revivals be nominated? Or does one have to be left out? 

If so... curious to see which gets left out as all of them are pretty good productions overall. We'll see the reviews for Funny Girl first though.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/6/22 at 4:50pm

BCfitasafiddle said: "Will all four musical revivals be nominated? Or does one have to be left out?"

 

Tony Award Rules 2(j)(iii)(A)

"Where there are five or four eligible shows in a Best Show category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for three eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm. The three eligible shows with the highest number of votes will automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A fourth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between the third highest ranked show and the fourth highest ranked show is ten percent or less."

 

Updated On: 4/6/22 at 04:50 PM

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 4/6/22 at 4:55pm

Surely Mare Winningham is a lock to be nominated for GIRL FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY. After those reviews? After Shirley Henderson WON the Oliver for the same role? Is she definitely leading?

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/6/22 at 5:21pm

I don't think Mare Winningham is locked at all, and right now I don't think she makes it in. 

I would say the only locks are Sharon D. Clarke and Joaquina Kalukango. And then I'd say Sutton Foster, Katrina Lenk, and Carmen Cusack could fill out Lead Actress. Question mark over Beanie Feldstein, as I haven't seen her and reports have been quite mixed. But all of those women dominate their shows way more than Winningham does. I think she would have earned a spot easily in Featured, but it'll be a battle for her to get into Lead.

Plus the Olivier's are wildly different from the Tonys and have different tastes. (They were fine putting all SIX ladies together as a joint nomination in supporting actress for example. And then there was Kyle Soller who won for The Inheritance and wasn't even nominated at the Tonys. His costar Burnap won instead). So, an entirely different actress than Winningham getting an Olivier win really means nothing for the Tonys.

As for Featured Actor in a Musical, I think the two locks are Matt Doyle and John-Andrew Morrison. Then maybe some combination of Jefferson Mays, Claybourne Elder, Sidney DuPont, AJ Shively, and mayyybe Marc Kudisch or Todd Almond? (hard to discern if anyone in the GFTNC ensemble of men gets in because there's so many equally weighted options). David Paymer also got an Oscar nom for the film version of Mr. Saturday Night...but the marketing for this makes it seem like an absolute snooze, so I'll wait on predicting him until I see it for myself. 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/10/22 at 6:14pm

Funny that I got to see mostly of the Play Revivals of the Season, I believe the only ones left out are Macbeth and Trouble in Mind.

Are we getting 4 or 5 nominated plays? I think Take Me Out, American Buffalo, How I Learned to Drive and For Colored Girls seems likely to be nominated.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/10/22 at 6:21pm

I believe every category will have 5 nominees this year, with the exception of Musical Revival.

David Paymer strikes me as a potential nominee in a fairly open category. I probably wouldn't personally nominate him over the men from North Country and Company, but if the voters are too split on those ensembles, I could see Paymer getting in. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/10/22 at 9:46pm

@MadsonMelo Best Play, Best Play Revival, and Best Musical will all have 5 nominees. Musical Revival will have 3 nominees.

I think for Play Revival, it could be the 4 you mentioned plus Trouble in Mind. Though, Skin of Our Teeth could come in at the end to steal a spot, haven't seen that one yet.

 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/18/22 at 4:49pm

Bumping this because what on EARTH is going to happen with featured actress in a play?? I've been seeing a lot of the new plays recently and I just can't make up my mind!

Kenita R. Miller definitely seems like the frontrunner at this point. I also feel like Uzo Aduba (Clyde's) and Jessica Frances Dukes (Trouble in Mind) are strong. Will Phylicia Rashad be able to get in despite her comments around the Cosby thing? I can't tell if they will dock her for that or not. 

But then there are still exceptional performances from Kara Young (Clyde's), Okwui Okpokwasili (for colored girls), Johanna Day (How I Learned to Drive), Blair Brown (The Minutes), Amber Gray (Macbeth), and Tracie Bennett (Hangmen). And I still havent seen POTUS or Skin of Our Teeth, but there are likely some potential nominees there. How are we ranking this category? I think Kenita has the edge for the win right now (POTUS and Skin unseen) but the rest seems like a total toss up.

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 4/18/22 at 11:15pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Bumping this because what on EARTH is going to happen with featured actress in a play?? I've been seeing a lot of the new plays recently and I just can't make up my mind!

Kenita R. Miller definitely seems like the frontrunner at this point. I also feel like Uzo Aduba (Clyde's) and Jessica Frances Dukes (Trouble in Mind) are strong. Will Phylicia Rashad be able to get in despite her comments around the Cosby thing? I can't tell if they will dock her for that or not.

But then there are still exceptional performances from Kara Young (Clyde's), Okwui Okpokwasili (for colored girls), Johanna Day (How I Learned to Drive), Blair Brown (The Minutes), Amber Gray (Macbeth), and Tracie Bennett (Hangmen). And I still havent seen POTUS or Skin of Our Teeth, but there are likely some potential nominees there. How are we ranking this category? I think Kenita has the edge for the win right now (POTUS and Skin unseen) but the rest seems like a total toss up."

After seeing POTUS tonight, I think Rachel Dratch has a good chance of getting in there. 

 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/20/22 at 2:38am

- Actor:

- David Threlfall, Hangmen
- David Morse, How I Learned to Drive
- Simon Russell Beale, Adam Godley, and Adrian Lester, The Lehman Trilogy
- Jon Michael Hill and Namir Smallwood, Pass Over
- Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Lackawanna Blues
- Noah Reid, The Minutes
- Laurence Fishburne and Sam Rockwell, American Buffalo
- Daniel Craig, Macbeth
- Matthew Broderick, Plaza Suite
- Patrick J. Abrams, Take Me Out

- Actress:


- Debra Messing, Birthday Candles
- Cleo King and Ebony Marshall-Oliver, Chicken and Biscuits
- Emily Davis, Is This a Room
- Deirdre O’Connell, Dana H.
- Mary-Louise Parker, How I Learned to Drive
- Ruth Negga, Macbeth
- Sarah Jessica Parker, Plaza Suite
- Gabby Beans, The Skin of Our Teeth
- LaChanze, Trouble in Mind

Are those the contenders for lead in play? I considered  that “for colored girls” and “POTUS” will be all featured (maybe Williams as lead?), and that Patrick will be the sole eligible lead for Take Me Out.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/20/22 at 8:44am

Judging by the roles alone, I’d think that Mr and Mrs. Antrobus are both leads along with Sabina in Skin of Our Teeth, but maybe they’ll try to split them up to better their chances. I’m either case, I don’t see the Antrobuses as being big contenders for nominations - I thought they were both very good, but not standouts in the same way Gabby Beans was. 

I’ve been assuming that Jesse Williams goes lead, but I think personally I’d rather see him go supporting so he has a better shot at a well-deserved nomination. Looks like the precedent is split on this. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/20/22 at 9:39am

MadsonMelo said: "
Are those the contenders for lead in play? I considered that “for colored girls” and “POTUS” will be all featured (maybe Williams as lead?), and that Patrick will be the sole eligible lead for Take Me Out."

I'm guessing all of "for colored girls" and "POTUS" will be featured, but if anyone gets left in leading for POTUS, it most likely will be Julie White, who actually has a far bigger role than Williams and mostly commands the story.

[kurtal]

Posted: 4/20/22 at 11:32pm

Updated predictions/thoughts. I've now seen every eligible production except Macbeth.  I saw The Minutes pre-pandemic and A Strange Loop off-Broadway, so my perspectives may change after I see their current iterations.

Musical

Lock: A Strange Loop, Six
Probable: Girl from the North Country
Maybe (my guesses in bold): Flying over Sunset, MJ, Mr Saturday Night, Paradise Square
No Chance: Diana, Mrs Doubtfire

Musical Revival

Lock: Company
Probable: Caroline, or Change
Maybe: Funny Girl, The Music Man

Musical Actress

Lock: Sharon D. Clarke, Joaquina Kalukango
Probable: Katrina Lenk
Maybe: Beanie Feldstein, Carmen Cusack, Mare Winningham, Sutton Foster

Musical Actor

Lock: Jaquel Spivey, Myles Frost
Probable: Hugh Jackman
Maybe: Tony Yazbeck, Ramin Karimloo, Rob McClure, Billy Crystal

Featured Actress Musical

Lock: Patti LuPone
Probable: Jennifer Simard, Jane Lynch
Maybe: Samantha Williams, Caissie Levy, Jayne Houdyshell, Chilina Kennedy, Randy Graff, L Morgan Lee, Jeannette Bayardelle

Featured Actor Musical

Lock: Matt Doyle
Probable: ​​​​​​​John-Andrew Morrison
Maybe: Robert Sella, Jared Grimes, Claybourne Elder, Christopher Fitzgerald, Quentin Earl Darrington, Jefferson Mays, David Paymer, AJ Shively

Play

Lock: The Lehman Trilogy
Probable: The Minutes, Hangmen, Skeleton Crew
Maybes: Clyde's, Dana H, Is This a Room?, Thoughts of a Colored Man, POTUS
No Chance: Birthday Candles, Chicken & Biscuits, Pass Over

Play Revival

Lock: Take Me Out, How I Learned to Drive, for colored girls...
Probable: Trouble in Mind
Maybe: American Buffalo, Lackawanna Blues, The Skin of our Teeth
No Chance: Macbeth, Plaza Suite

Play Actor

Lock: David Morse
Probable: David Threlfall, Jesse Williams
Maybe: Adrian Lester, Daniel Craig, Ian Barford, Laurence Fishburne, Adam Godley, Sam Rockwell, Simon Russell Beale

Play Actress

Lock: Deirdre O'Connell, Mary-Louise Parker
Probable: LaChanze
Maybe: Debra Messing, Emily Davis, Ruth Negga, Sarah Jessica Parker, Gabby Beans

Featured Actor Play

Lock: Jesse Tyler Ferguson
Probable: Chuck Cooper
Maybe: Michael Urie, Ron Cephas Jones, Darren Criss, Tracy Letts, Austin Pendleton, Alfie Allen, Joshua Boone, Noah Reid, Michael Oberholtzer

Featured Actress Play

Lock: N/A
Probable: Kenita R. Miller, Uzo Aduba, Rachel Dratch
Maybe: Amber Gray, Phylicia Rashad, Jessica Frances Dukes, Jessie Mueller, Julie White

[Rudy2]

Posted: 4/21/22 at 3:05am

HeyMrMusic said: "It’s interesting how many people are rooting against Claybourne Elder’s nomination. I thought he was the standout among the Company men in a harder role to be a standout than, say, Matt Doyle, whose song’s staging and not the performance is the highlight. I think Elder’s visibility among Tony royalty in The Gilded Age will help him see a nomination."

I’m just catching up here, and I’m not necessarily rooting against Elder’s nomination - I just think his comic timing has been wildly overrated throughout analysis of the show on this board. Perhaps some people are confusing gym time with expert line delivery.

I almost can’t blame them. Almost.

He’s fine in the role, but I’ve merely chuckled a couple times watching him in the five times I’ve seen the show. I can see his delivery coming a page ahead. He plays to the audience, who laugh mostly because they’re being told to. Maybe he was directed that way. The character is certainly an odd man out, and certainly, it must have been tricky for it to be re-christened. I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve some credit.

In any event, I’d rather see Doyle or Terence Archie nominated. I think they ring so true emotionally and really underscore the objectives of the whole piece by doing so. I didn’t expect the actor who plays Larry to make me cry. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more praise for his performance. Of course, I know he won’t be nominated.

 

Updated On: 4/21/22 at 03:05 AM

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 4/21/22 at 7:05am

Wait, how are people not talking about Emily Davis in IS THIS A ROOM for Best Actress? To me she, Deidre O’Connell, and Mary Louise Parker would be front runners for this. 

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 4/21/22 at 10:19am

I mean, I love Terrence Archie’s work in Company, he’s brilliant in what’s never been a standout role. However, I never even thought of him in contention for a Tony nod simply because there’s at least four other supporting actors in his show who have bigger showcases, and even then, only one of them feels like a sure thing.