2022 Tony Awards Predictions — Page 6

ElephantLoveMedley said: "My predictions for nominations in the musical acting categories (in order of likelihood of winning, in my humble opinion):

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Sharon D. Clarke - Caroline, or Change
2. Katrina Lenk - Company
3. Joaquina Kalukango - Paradise Square
4. Sutton Foster - The Music Man
5. Beanie Feldstein - Funny Girl
DARK HORSE #1: Carmen Cusack - Flying Over Sunset
DARK HORSE #2: Mare Winningham - Girl From the North Country

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
1. Jaquel Spivey - A Strange Loop
2. Hugh Jackman - The Music Man
3. Rob McClure - Mrs. Doubtfire
4. Billy Crystal - Mr. Saturday Night
5. Myles Frost - MJ The Musical
DARK HORSE: Ramin Karimloo - Funny Girl

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Patti LuPone - Company
2. Jennifer Simard - Company
3. Caissie Levy - Caroline, or Change
4. Jane Lynch - Funny Girl
5. Samantha Williams - Caroline, or Change

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
1. Matt Doyle - Company
2. Claybourne Elder - Company
3. Christopher Sieber - Company
4. Christopher Fitzgerald - Company
5. David Paymer - Mr. Saturday Night
DARK HORSE: Marc Kudisch - Girl From the North Country

And then, just for fun, my predictions for lead categories in a play:

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
1. Mary-Louise Parker - How I Learned to Drive
2. Deidre O’Connell - Dana H.
3. LaChanze - Trouble in Mind
4. Ruth Negga - Macbeth
5. Honestly really not sure here - could go to Ebony Marshall-Oliver, SJP, maybe someone in The Skin of Our Teeth, Debra Messing?

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY (What a dense category this year!)
1. David Morse - How I Learned to Drive
2. Adam Godley - The Lehman Trilogy
3. Simon Russell Beale - The Lehman Trilogy
4. Adrian Lester - The Lehman Trilogy
5. Daniel Craig - Macbeth
DARK HORSE #1: Laurence Fishburne - American Buffalo
DARK HORSE #2: David Threlfall - Hangmen
DARK HORSE #3: Ruben Santiago-Hudson - Lackawanna Blues"

 

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Sharon D. Clarke - Caroline, or Change
2. Katrina Lenk - Company
3. Joaquina Kalukango - Paradise Square
4. Sutton Foster - The Music Man
5. Carmen Cusack - Flying Over Sunset
DARK HORSE Beanie Feldstein - Funny Girl 

***I feel Carmen Cusack has an advantage over Beanie as she was nominated for ''Bright Star'' in 2016 but we'll know in 3 weeks after FG opens on 3/24!

jkcohen626 said: "I wonder if Jane Houdyshell gets nominated for Music Man and I wouldn't want to see Claybourne Elder nominated, but I think your list is pretty spot on besides that!"

I think Houdyshell would’ve needed way better notices to get nominated for a role that’s really not a showcase.

Any guesses on Featured Actress in a Play? That’s the acting category I’m currently least sure of in terms of both nominees and the winner. Featured Actor though looks like probably either Chuck Cooper (from whose been seen) or Alfie Allen (from who hasn’t been seen). That’s assuming Allen’s role is supporting, as it’s been up for both lead and supporting awards before.

It’s interesting how many people are rooting against Claybourne Elder’s nomination. I thought he was the standout among the Company men in a harder role to be a standout than, say, Matt Doyle, whose song’s staging and not the performance is the highlight. I think Elder’s visibility among Tony royalty in The Gilded Age will help him see a nomination.

HeyMrMusic said: "It’s interesting how many people are rooting against Claybourne Elder’s nomination. I thought he was the standout among the Company men in a harder role to be a standout than, say, Matt Doyle, whose song’s staging and not the performance is the highlight. I think Elder’s visibility among Tony royalty in The Gilded Age will help him see a nomination."

Completely agree. Elder doesn’t have the flashiest role but he has probably the largest supporting male role in the show. He’s hilarious, and wisely underplays a lot of it, and has wonderful chemistry with Lenk.

I’ve said since the start I believe Doyle and Elder will both be nominated, but nominations for Fitzgerald and Sieber would be icing on the cake.

As much as I love Christopher Sieber, I don't see him sneaking into the Featured Actor category. Having 4 men from Company out of the 5 nominees just sounds too good to be true. I bet the Featured Actor category will end up being Doyle, Elder, Fitzgerald, Jefferson Mays, and Jared Grimes. Quentin Earl Darrington could possibly sneak in too

BCfitasafiddle said: "Will all four musical revivals be nominated? Or does one have to be left out?"

 

Tony Award Rules 2(j)(iii)(A)

"Where there are five or four eligible shows in a Best Show category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for three eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm. The three eligible shows with the highest number of votes will automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A fourth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between the third highest ranked show and the fourth highest ranked show is ten percent or less."

 

Updated On: 4/6/22 at 04:50 PM

I don't think Mare Winningham is locked at all, and right now I don't think she makes it in. 

I would say the only locks are Sharon D. Clarke and Joaquina Kalukango. And then I'd say Sutton Foster, Katrina Lenk, and Carmen Cusack could fill out Lead Actress. Question mark over Beanie Feldstein, as I haven't seen her and reports have been quite mixed. But all of those women dominate their shows way more than Winningham does. I think she would have earned a spot easily in Featured, but it'll be a battle for her to get into Lead.

Plus the Olivier's are wildly different from the Tonys and have different tastes. (They were fine putting all SIX ladies together as a joint nomination in supporting actress for example. And then there was Kyle Soller who won for The Inheritance and wasn't even nominated at the Tonys. His costar Burnap won instead). So, an entirely different actress than Winningham getting an Olivier win really means nothing for the Tonys.

As for Featured Actor in a Musical, I think the two locks are Matt Doyle and John-Andrew Morrison. Then maybe some combination of Jefferson Mays, Claybourne Elder, Sidney DuPont, AJ Shively, and mayyybe Marc Kudisch or Todd Almond? (hard to discern if anyone in the GFTNC ensemble of men gets in because there's so many equally weighted options). David Paymer also got an Oscar nom for the film version of Mr. Saturday Night...but the marketing for this makes it seem like an absolute snooze, so I'll wait on predicting him until I see it for myself. 

I believe every category will have 5 nominees this year, with the exception of Musical Revival.

David Paymer strikes me as a potential nominee in a fairly open category. I probably wouldn't personally nominate him over the men from North Country and Company, but if the voters are too split on those ensembles, I could see Paymer getting in. 

Bumping this because what on EARTH is going to happen with featured actress in a play?? I've been seeing a lot of the new plays recently and I just can't make up my mind!

Kenita R. Miller definitely seems like the frontrunner at this point. I also feel like Uzo Aduba (Clyde's) and Jessica Frances Dukes (Trouble in Mind) are strong. Will Phylicia Rashad be able to get in despite her comments around the Cosby thing? I can't tell if they will dock her for that or not. 

But then there are still exceptional performances from Kara Young (Clyde's), Okwui Okpokwasili (for colored girls), Johanna Day (How I Learned to Drive), Blair Brown (The Minutes), Amber Gray (Macbeth), and Tracie Bennett (Hangmen). And I still havent seen POTUS or Skin of Our Teeth, but there are likely some potential nominees there. How are we ranking this category? I think Kenita has the edge for the win right now (POTUS and Skin unseen) but the rest seems like a total toss up.

- Actor:

- David Threlfall, Hangmen
- David Morse, How I Learned to Drive
- Simon Russell Beale, Adam Godley, and Adrian Lester, The Lehman Trilogy
- Jon Michael Hill and Namir Smallwood, Pass Over
- Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Lackawanna Blues
- Noah Reid, The Minutes
- Laurence Fishburne and Sam Rockwell, American Buffalo
- Daniel Craig, Macbeth
- Matthew Broderick, Plaza Suite
- Patrick J. Abrams, Take Me Out

- Actress:


- Debra Messing, Birthday Candles
- Cleo King and Ebony Marshall-Oliver, Chicken and Biscuits
- Emily Davis, Is This a Room
- Deirdre O’Connell, Dana H.
- Mary-Louise Parker, How I Learned to Drive
- Ruth Negga, Macbeth
- Sarah Jessica Parker, Plaza Suite
- Gabby Beans, The Skin of Our Teeth
- LaChanze, Trouble in Mind

Are those the contenders for lead in play? I considered  that “for colored girls” and “POTUS” will be all featured (maybe Williams as lead?), and that Patrick will be the sole eligible lead for Take Me Out.

MadsonMelo said: "
Are those the contenders for lead in play? I considered that “for colored girls” and “POTUS” will be all featured (maybe Williams as lead?), and that Patrick will be the sole eligible lead for Take Me Out."

I'm guessing all of "for colored girls" and "POTUS" will be featured, but if anyone gets left in leading for POTUS, it most likely will be Julie White, who actually has a far bigger role than Williams and mostly commands the story.

HeyMrMusic said: "It’s interesting how many people are rooting against Claybourne Elder’s nomination. I thought he was the standout among the Company men in a harder role to be a standout than, say, Matt Doyle, whose song’s staging and not the performance is the highlight. I think Elder’s visibility among Tony royalty in The Gilded Age will help him see a nomination."

I’m just catching up here, and I’m not necessarily rooting against Elder’s nomination - I just think his comic timing has been wildly overrated throughout analysis of the show on this board. Perhaps some people are confusing gym time with expert line delivery.

I almost can’t blame them. Almost.

He’s fine in the role, but I’ve merely chuckled a couple times watching him in the five times I’ve seen the show. I can see his delivery coming a page ahead. He plays to the audience, who laugh mostly because they’re being told to. Maybe he was directed that way. The character is certainly an odd man out, and certainly, it must have been tricky for it to be re-christened. I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve some credit.

In any event, I’d rather see Doyle or Terence Archie nominated. I think they ring so true emotionally and really underscore the objectives of the whole piece by doing so. I didn’t expect the actor who plays Larry to make me cry. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more praise for his performance. Of course, I know he won’t be nominated.

 

Updated On: 4/21/22 at 03:05 AM

I mean, I love Terrence Archie’s work in Company, he’s brilliant in what’s never been a standout role. However, I never even thought of him in contention for a Tony nod simply because there’s at least four other supporting actors in his show who have bigger showcases, and even then, only one of them feels like a sure thing.