2022 Tony Awards Predictions- Page 8

[YvanEhtNioj]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 10:55am

I think Company is 100% winning. 

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 11:01am

Yeah there’s no way Company loses. I’d also say Elliot’s direction winning is just about as secure.

[BCfitasafiddle]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 11:04am

If all of Feldstein's co-stars get nominations and she doesn't... I will definitely feel bad for the girl. Not that she's totally deserving. It's just such a monstrous role. What a shame.

[Alex M]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 11:11am

I believe A Strange Loop will be winning all major categories with an exception for Direction going to Elliott for Company.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 11:24am

jkcohen626 said: "Would Beans be leading or featured? She definitely feels like the lead of Skin of Our Teeth, but I know that how it feels and how the committee views things don't always match up (see Uzo)."

I think it's a grey area but my interpretation of this production is that it's an ensemble piece with nobody deserving to be in the Lead category.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 11:43am

I'm pretty confident predicting the following to win:

Book – STRANGE LOOP
Score – STRANGE LOOP
Lead Actress – Clarke
Feat Actress – LuPone
Revival – COMPANY
Choreo – MJ

Here are my other predictions, which are less certain:

Musical – SIX
Lead Actor – Myles Frost or Jaquel Spivey
Feat Actor – Matt Doyle*
Orchestrations – STRANGE LOOP or COMPANY
Scenic – COMPANY or STRANGE LOOP
Costumes – SIX or FUNNY GIRL
Lighting – MJ or whatever is winning Musical
Sound –  MJ, COMPANY, or whatever is winning Musical

*NOTES ON FEATURED ACTOR: I don't feel like I can accurately predict this until knowing the nominees. I might give the award to Dad from A Strange Loop or Jefferson Mays? But nobody's nomination is guaranteed in this weird category.

I would love to see Simard and LuPone both nominated for Featured Actress. The Harry/Sarah scene is the best comedy on Broadway this year, imho.

Updated On: 4/25/22 at 11:43 AM

[YvanEhtNioj]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 12:04pm

I cant see ASL winning Scenic considering the majority of the show is just a bare stage until the end. Company or Funny Girl will take that one

[Alex M]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 12:07pm

While I enjoyed Six quite a bit (I still listen to the cast album) it really is a head scratcher to me why people think its going to win over A Strange Loop. Recent years have shown us that the Tonys are not afraid to award the show the pushes boundaries and is different. 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 12:14pm

Alex M said: "While I enjoyed Six quite a bit (I still listen to the cast album) it really is a head scratcher to me why people think its going to win over A Strange Loop. Recent years have shown us that the Tonys are not afraid to award the show the pushes boundaries and is different."

100% agree. I'm expecting 2018 all over again. I would say SIX is better than shows like Frozen and mean Girls, but I don't see the voters being afraid of going for the less commercial pick. I can still recognize that The Band's Visit was a VERY different show than A Strange Loop, but I still think its the clear frontrunner for Best Musical. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 12:28pm

I don’t think you can compare this to 2018, which was among the weakest seasons in the history of the award. Voters may still view SIX as something fresh and fun and out of the box, even tho I personally would give the award to ASL. SIX is a well-crafted hit with a great score that takes stuffy material and makes it enjoyable. ASL is going to alienate a lot more voters than Band’s Visit or Fun Home or other “challenging” musicals. 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 12:52pm

Alex M said: "While I enjoyed Six quite a bit (I still listen to the cast album) it really is a head scratcher to me why people think its going to win over A Strange Loop. Recent years have shown us that the Tonys are not afraid to award the show the pushes boundaries and is different."

 

In generally I agree with this take, but if I were to play devil's advocate:

Six originated at the Edinburgh Fringe festival - largely known hosting smaller, more off-beat, avant garde shows. While Six has become something of a minor juggernaut, you can still ascribe an "underdog," "prestige" narrative to it, by way of its humble beginnings. And it manages to have its cake and eat it to, by providing a fun, easily digestible experience, with a somewhat more intellectual, high-brow concept.

In other words, I don't think the more artistically-minded voters - those who are working to reject the IP-domination on Broadway - would be resistant to voting for it. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 1:04pm

I agree with all of what JBroadway says above. It is easy to dismiss SIX when it has been on the scene so long, but remember many of the voters will just be seeing it this spring for the first time. It still has a real chance, and an exciting new writing/directing team.

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 1:08pm

I know this is an unorthodox year, but I keep thinking about Laura Benanti and Nikki M. James' award seasons for Women/Verge and Mormon, respectively. I think as much as Clarke deserves Best Actress, I could see it going to Joaquina as a way to honor Paradise Square... plus because the show is currently running.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 1:08pm

I feel “Company” will be the most nom show, I have in 11 categories and I believe it can - and will - win Revival, Featured Actor, Featured Actress, Direction, Scenic Design and Orchestrations.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 1:23pm

jacobsnchz14 said: "I know this is an unorthodox year, but I keep thinking about Laura Benanti and Nikki M. James' award seasons for Women/Verge and Mormon, respectively. I think as much as Clarke deserves Best Actress, I could see it going to Joaquina as a way to honor Paradise Square... plus because the show is currently running."

Nikki got swept up in the love for MORMON, which has happened for other shows too when there's not a solid frontrunner (Shalhoub in Band's Visit, Michael Aronov in Oslo, Ruthie Ann in King and I). Joaquina is in a megaflop that a lot of voters probably aren't going to see, and is likely to close before the ceremony, and the material she has to work with is not good. I don't see another true contender in the Actress race. MAYBE Lenk could spoil if they really adore COMPANY, but I think most people view the show as working in spite of Lenk, not because of her –– and she's such a recent winner.

Or to put it another way: If Kelli O'Hara couldn't win for BRIDGES, there's no chance in hell Joaquina will win for PARADISE.

Updated On: 4/25/22 at 01:23 PM

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 1:34pm

jacobsnchz14 said: "I know this is an unorthodox year, but I keep thinking about Laura Benanti and Nikki M. James' award seasons for Women/Verge and Mormon, respectively. I think as much as Clarke deserves Best Actress, I could see it going to Joaquina as a way to honor Paradise Square... plus because the show is currently running."

If Joaquina wins it’ll be for her performance, not her divisive show. I don’t really get the comparison here outside of both shows being closed. James was in far and away the biggest show of the season, and despite Benanti being praised, her show was negatively received. Meanwhile Caroline or Change was clearly more liked than Paradise Square.

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 4/25/22 at 2:18pm

Am I crazy for thinking that Sharon and Joaquina could split the vote between each other and pave the way to a Katrina win?

[vfd88]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 8:48pm

While Clarke obviously feels like a winner, I just can't shake the fact that Tony voters hate voting for performances from closed shows - the last one to win was Martin Short for Little Me all the way back in 1999. So I think it's probably Lenk, although Kalukango stands a good chance if voters don't mind voting for a great performance in a mediocre show.

[forfivemoreminutes]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 9:15pm

Katrina Lenk does a good job acting a poorly-written role, and a fairly good job singing it (personally I thought she did well with most of the score, but some of the critics clearly disagreed). Sharon D. Clarke, on the other hand, gives an absolutely transcendental performance of a deep, complex, and incredibly well-written role. I'd be shocked if Katrina (who does a good job with the material she's given) won over Sharon.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 9:23pm

Like another poster mentioned, I looked at the last 30 years of Best Actress in a Musical winners and I can’t find one who won for a closed show. 

[CityLights3]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 9:44pm

Don’t anyone count out Sutton Foster. Her best? No.  But bad? Not at all.  A beloved vet with 2 Tonys in the bag.  Patti might not be the only one winning their 3rd come Tony night.  

[forfivemoreminutes]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 10:06pm

ljay889 said: "Like another poster mentioned, I looked at the last 30 years of Best Actress in a Musical winners and I can’t find one who won for a closed show."

That may be because limited-run shows that closed well before the Tony cutoff date in previous years may not have been particularly well-done/critically acclaimed the way Caroline, or Change is? Caroline, or Change to me is a pretty unique show - one without much of a "commercial" audience (and therefore unlikely to have a long run), but a brilliantly complex show with incredible characters both in their writing and in their acting. 

[blaxx]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 10:09pm

CityLights3 said: "Don’t anyone count out Sutton Foster. Her best? No. But bad? Not at all. A beloved vet with 2 Tonys in the bag. Patti might not be the only one winning their 3rd come Tony night. "

Foster winning would be a slap in the face to any other nominee. She's bottom of the barrel.

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 10:16pm

blaxx said: "CityLights3 said: "Don’t anyone count out Sutton Foster. Her best? No. But bad? Not at all. A beloved vet with 2 Tonys in the bag. Patti might not be the only one winning their 3rd come Tony night. "

Foster winning would be a slap in the face to any other nominee. She's bottom of the barrel."

If Sutton Foster is bottom of the barrel, I wanna be at the bottom of the barrel. This is perhaps her best acting she’s ever done on stage. I do think her voice is not the ideal fit for the role, but she is a delight and fantastic as always.

[Bill Snibson]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 10:43pm

Now that the Funny Girl reviews are in, is there still a chance that Beanie would get a nomination before Katrina Lenk? I will be very upset if that happens.