2022 Tony Awards Predictions

[Sophie31]

Posted: 1/20/22 at 6:37pm

There was a post made a while ago about (very) early predictions for the Tony awards back when Broadway was starting to reopen. Now that it has been open for a bit longer and people have had the chance to see some of the eligible shows, I'm curious to know others predictions for any category of the Tony awards for 2022. 

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/20/22 at 6:55pm

Not to derail the subject (since I'd love to see what everyone is guessing!), but do we even know if the Tonys are going back to their regular time of year again? Should we expect a cutoff date in April 2022 with nominations in May and a ceremony in June? Or did last year completely upend things forever? I think people are pretty in the dark about when the 2022 Tonys will even take place.

[Sophie31]

Posted: 1/20/22 at 7:41pm

While the date of the Tony awards itself are unknown to the public at the moment, I believe the cutoff date for this season is April 22nd or some time around then. This means that the Tonys should take place around the time they usually would and not in September or any other funky month.

[Theatrefanboy1]

Posted: 1/20/22 at 8:39pm

Winner predictions. 
 

Musical.  SIX

revival Musical. COMPANY

actor - Hugh Jackman

supporting actor - Matt Doyle

suppirting actress - Patti Lupone

actress - Sutton Foster

director.  Marianne Elliott 

Music - SIX

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 1/20/22 at 8:47pm

Theatrefanboy1 said: "Winner predictions.


Musical. SIX

revival Musical. COMPANY

actor - Hugh Jackman

supporting actor - Matt Doyle

suppirting actress - Patti Lupone

actress - Sutton Foster

director. Marianne Elliott

Music - SIX"

Musical and score to A Strange Loop. Lead actress to Sharon Clarke. Lead actor is a toss up between Jackman and Jaquel Spivey (maybe Crystal as well?). SIX will win costume design and nothing else. 

[Wick3]

Posted: 1/20/22 at 9:45pm

Sophie31 said: "While the date of the Tony awards itself are unknown to the public at the moment, I believe the cutoff date for this season is April 22nd or some time around then. This means that the Tonys should take place around the time they usually would and not in September or any other funky month."

From the Bway League website, the last opening night date in April is Macbeth on April 28th. Perhaps the cutoff is end of April?

[Dollypop]

Posted: 1/20/22 at 11:33pm

Theatrefanboy1 said: "Winner predictions.


Musical. SIX

revival Musical. COMPANY

actor - Hugh Jackman

supporting actor - Matt Doyle

suppirting actress - Patti Lupone

actress - Sutton Foster

director. Marianne Elliott

Music - SIX"

 

Interesting how you concern yourself only with musicals and disregard straight plays and comedies.

 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 12:17am

I don't have predictions for a lot (I'm not as confident with plays and there are some categories I need to see more for before I know), but this is what I've been thinking so far:

Musical: A Strange Loop

Revival: Company

Actor: Hugh Jackman (The Music Man)

Actress: Sharon D. Clarke (Caroline, or Change

Featured Actor: Matt Doyle (Company)

Featured Actress: Patti Lupone (Company)

Director: Marianne Elliot (Company)

Music: A Strange Loop

Sets: Bunny Christie (Company)

 

[quizking101]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 9:30am

I think “Music Man” being a lock for anything is no longer a guarantee since Rudin isn’t around to purchase his way into Tony Awards anymore.

It will get nominated for a bunch but I think it’s gonna get slapped by COMPANY and some other shows as well. 

I feel like this is the year we’re definitely going to see a spreading of the wealth - and maybe some additional nods in performance categories (more than 5). 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 9:45am

quizking101 said: "I think “Music Man” being a lock for anything is no longer a guarantee since Rudin isn’t around to purchase his way into Tony Awards anymore."

 

I'm confused by this assessment. Scott Rudin did many skeevy things, and I won't defend his actions. But as far as his work was concerned: he was known for producing high quality shows. I'm not saying he didn't campaign aggressively, but that's well within his rights. And it's hard to say that someone bought awards when the work itself was good enough to merit them. And when the productions weren't well-liked, they didn't get nominated (see Glass Menagerie, King Lear, Hillary and Clinton, etc.). And in many cases, his productions were deservedly nominated, but didn't win. 

If anything, he had a lot of tension with the Tonys for his many attempts at bizarre, unreasonable power-plays, which the Tonys would refuse to concede. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 11:15am

Tony cutoff date is the last Thursday of April IF they stick with the old calendar.

I wouldn't be surprised if they extend the season by a couple weeks if Covid is still raging on, to make sure that shows that would like to open in 21-22 can open in time with the intended casts.

Hard to make predix at this early stage, but we should see wins for Sharon D. Clarke (Actress), A Strange Loop (Book/Score), and Six (Musical).

[Theatrefanboy1]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 11:24am

Dollypop said: "Theatrefanboy1 said: "Winner predictions.


Musical. SIX

revival Musical. COMPANY

actor - Hugh Jackman

supporting actor - Matt Doyle

suppirting actress - Patti Lupone

actress - Sutton Foster

director. Marianne Elliott

Music - SIX"



Interesting how you concern yourself only with musicals and disregard straight plays and comedies.

"

Sorry. Not total disregard. But I’ll be honest my line and experience and knowledge is far more focused on the musical aspects of theatre. Partially because of my work. When I have gone to New York about 95% of my theatre consist of musicals I’ve only seen: It’s Only A Play, The River, Delicate Balance, The Inheritance, The Best Man, Curious Incident, Harry Potter, Sleep No More.   The rest have all been musicals.  
 

When I’m London I tend to see more plays or comedies. I don’t know why. I just prefer British actors for plays. And American for musical theatre.  So my thoughts are often limited on plays on Broadway. 

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 11:32am

Best Actress in a Musical certainly seems like it's Sharon D. Clarke's to lose at the moment, but I'm eager to see if Beanie Feldstein blows us all away in Funny Girl this spring. It seems like people are discounting that production right now just because no one really knows what it will look like.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 11:34am

I’ve mentioned this in another thread, but I don’t believe people should be discounting Joaquina Kalukango in Paradise Square. Best actress in a musical will definitely be a tough race.

 

Updated On: 1/21/22 at 11:34 AM

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 11:41am

Right now, I think the only performance award that we can solidly "lock" is Featured Actress in a Musical in favor of Patti LuPone in Company. I can't think of any other musical production this season that has or will have a performance that can take her over in that race.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 11:44am

Dollypop said: "Theatrefanboy1 said: "Winner predictions.


Musical. SIX

revival Musical. COMPANY

actor - Hugh Jackman

supporting actor - Matt Doyle

suppirting actress - Patti Lupone

actress - Sutton Foster

director. Marianne Elliott

Music - SIX"



Interesting how you concern yourself only with musicals and disregard straight plays and comedies.

"

It's not that we can't concern ourselves with straight plays, it's just that at this point it's tough to know how they're going to be received.  For the musicals, only Funny Girl and Mr. Saturday Night have not either begun performances yet or been seen regionally, so it's much easier to start making predictions about the musicals as we know how 80% or so of them are going to turn out.  With the plays, we have no idea how Birthday Candles, American Buffalo, Plaza Suite, How I Learned to Drive, Take Me Out, Macbeth, Skin of Our Teeth and others are going to be received.  So way too early to predict anything regarding them.

Regarding musicals, I agree A Strange Loop is going to come in and win Musical, Book, Score and likely others.  I think Caroline, or Change, regardless of how well it was received, is going to struggle to win much of anything as it will have closed 5 months ago by Tony time, while presumably three other hit revivals will still be running and still be in the news (and remember, no already closed show has ever won Best Revival of a Musical in the history of the Tonys).  Sharon D. Clarke is certainly their best chance, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if Sutton Foster, Beanie Feldstein or Joaquina Kalukango, who will have been seen much more recently, end up taking it.

[BroadwayNYC2]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 12:30pm

I don’t think A Strange Loop is a shoe-in for score. I saw the show twice and can barely remember a song from it. This will probably be a category in which it falters. 

[Sophie31]

Posted: 1/21/22 at 10:33pm

Wick3 said: "Sophie31 said: "While the date of the Tony awards itself are unknown to the public at the moment, I believe the cutoff date for this season is April 22nd or some time around then. This means that the Tonys should take place around the time they usually would and not in September or any other funky month."

From the Bway League website, the last opening night date in April is Macbeth on April 28th. Perhaps the cutoff is end of April?"

I forgot to add in that post in brackets that I wasn't 100% sure if that was the correct date. I wrote it down a while ago and now I can't remember where I sourced it from. You are most likely correct. My apologies.

[SmoothLover]

Posted: 1/22/22 at 6:32am

Do not count out Randy Graff.

[kurtal]

Posted: 1/22/22 at 9:25am

These are who I think will win, not who I think should win.

Play: The Lehman Trilogy

Musical: A Strange Loop

Play Revival: Take Me Out

Musical Revival: Company

Leading Actor Play: David Morse (How I Learned to Drive)

Leading Actress Play: Deirdre O'Connell - (Dana H.)

Leading Actor Musical: Myles Frost - (MJ)

Leading Actress Musical: Sharon D Clarke (Caroline, or Change)

Featured Actor Play - Jesse Williams (Take Me Out)

Featured Actress Play - Kara Young (Clyde's)

Featured Actor Musical - Matt Doyle (Company)

Featured Actress Musical - Patti LuPone (Company)

Book of a Musical - A Strange Loop

Director Play - Sam Mendes (Lehman)

Director Musical - Marianne Elliott (Company)

Score - Flying Over Sunset

Choreography - MJ

 

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 1/22/22 at 10:47am

I never thought about Flying Over Sunset as an option for Score, but it’s actually a viable option, considering the “slight” scores of the frontrunners. If a cast album comes out soon, it could be a contender for Score and Orchestrations.

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 1/22/22 at 12:20pm

HeyMrMusic said: "I never thought aboutFlying Over Sunsetas an option for Score, but it’s actually a viable option, considering the “slight” scores of the frontrunners. If a cast album comes out soon, it could be a contender for Score and Orchestrations."

And it will - this Friday!

[Dailybriefing]

Posted: 3/10/22 at 12:22pm

kurtal said: "These are who I think will win, not who Ithink should win.

Play: The Lehman Trilogy

Musical: A Strange Loop

Play Revival: Take Me Out

Musical Revival: Company

Leading Actor Play: David Morse (How I Learned to Drive)

Leading Actress Play: Deirdre O'Connell - (Dana H.)

Leading Actor Musical: Myles Frost - (MJ)

Leading Actress Musical: Sharon D Clarke (Caroline, or Change)

Featured Actor Play - Jesse Williams (Take Me Out)

Featured Actress Play - Kara Young (Clyde's)

Featured Actor Musical - Matt Doyle (Company)

Featured Actress Musical - Patti LuPone (Company)

Book of a Musical - A Strange Loop

Director Play - Sam Mendes (Lehman)

Director Musical - Marianne Elliott (Company)

Score - Flying Over Sunset

Choreography - MJ

"Will Patti Lupone be considered eligible for best supporting actress? Her name is above the title with Katrina Lenk's on the playbill.

 

[dramamama611]

Posted: 3/10/22 at 12:26pm

The production will likely petition for her to be placed in Featured - which will be approved (in my mind, at least)

(I don't THINK that Company has been discussed by the committee yet - but things are pretty disjointed now)

[BWAY Baby2]

Posted: 3/10/22 at 1:02pm

Patti Lupone was fine in Company- but is her small part really worthy of a Tony? Yes, she is Broadway royalty- and deservedly so- but I did not think her performance in Company was necessarily Tony worthy- I guess I have to se the competition- but I bet there are other performances that are more worthy of this honor.