2022 Tony Awards Predictions- Page 9

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 10:52pm

Bill Snibson said: "Now that the Funny Girl reviews are in, is there still a chance that Beanie would get a nomination before Katrina Lenk? I will be very upset if that happens. "

I’d be very surprised. Katrina’s reviews although mixed were better than Beanie’s. 
Katrina also greatly improved her performance since opening night, so hopefully the nominating committee was able to see her improved performance. 

[jo]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 10:57pm

TotallyEffed said: "blaxx said: "CityLights3 said: "Don’t anyone count out Sutton Foster. Her best? No. But bad? Not at all. A beloved vet with 2 Tonys in the bag. Patti might not be the only one winning their 3rd come Tony night. "

Foster winning would be a slap in the face to any other nominee. She's bottom of the barrel."

If Sutton Foster is bottom of the barrel, I wanna be at the bottom of the barrel. This is perhaps her best acting she’s ever done on stage. I do think her voice is not the ideal fit for the role, but she is a delight and fantastic as always."

 

And audiences are on her side ( and Hugh, too) --

https://playbill.com/production/gross?production=00000169-776c-df39-a3e9-777df8fe0000

Look at that trend since it was reviewed! Could even be better after the current cancellation policy lapses.

 

Updated On: 4/27/22 at 10:57 PM

[HenryTDobson]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 11:17pm

I don't think you can count out the Six ladies. Still not sure how you choose between them, but I feel like 1 or even 2 of them might sneak into the race. It's Clarke's to lose, but not having a winner from a closed show in over 30 years is an interesting statistic that does not work in favor. Love Lenk, but winning a second Tony award for this performance doesn't feel right. Same with Sutton for her third. This is a strange category this year. 

As for best actor, Billy Crystal did himself some favors with he reviews today. I still think it'll be Spivey though. 

[Bill Snibson]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 11:19pm

ljay889 said: "Bill Snibson said: "Now that the Funny Girl reviews are in, is there still a chance that Beanie would get a nomination before Katrina Lenk? I will be very upset if that happens. "

I’d be very surprised. Katrina’s reviews although mixed were better than Beanie’s.
Katrina also greatly improved her performance since opening night, so hopefully the nominating committee was able to see her improved performance."

That’s my hope. I know Katrina has been polarizing but where she is now in the role is Tony worthy. 

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 11:21pm

vfd88 said: "While Clarke obviously feels like a winner, I just can't shake the fact that Tony voters hate voting for performances from closed shows - the last one to win was Martin Short for Little Me all the way back in 1999. So I think it's probably Lenk, althoughKalukango stands a good chance if voters don't mind voting for a great performance in a mediocre show."

Tracy Letts actually won for Virginia Woolf in 2013, much more recent than 1999. Don’t count anyone out in a closed show this year.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 11:26pm

Falsettolands said: "vfd88 said: "While Clarke obviously feels like a winner, I just can't shake the fact that Tony voters hate voting for performances from closed shows - the last one to win was Martin Short for Little Me all the way back in 1999. So I think it's probably Lenk, althoughKalukango stands a good chance if voters don't mind voting for a great performance in a mediocre show."

Tracy Letts actually won for Virginia Woolf in 2013, much more recent than 1999. Don’t count anyone out in a closed show this year."

My statistic was only based on the Best Leading  Actress in a Musical category. The furthest I looked back was Tyne Daly in Gypsy. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 11:37pm

iirc...

BRIDGES had the Actress stat going against it (I believe the last person to win Lead Actress in a Musical for a not-currently-running show was Angela Lansbury in GYPSY) as well as the Score stat (JRB for Parade had been the last time a show wasn't running won Best Score).

One of those two stats broke in 2014, the other could very well break this year.

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 4/27/22 at 11:42pm

I think that the open show pattern is definitely a factor, but it's not an end-all-be-all. When you have a performance as INCREDIBLE and a performer as massively talented as Sharon D. Clarke in Caroline, or Change, it becomes pretty easy to see a pattern being broken. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/28/22 at 11:16am

jkcohen626 said: "I think that the open show pattern is definitely a factor, but it's not an end-all-be-all. When you have a performance as INCREDIBLE and a performer as massively talented as Sharon D. Clarke in Caroline, or Change, it becomes pretty easy to see a pattern being broken."

Agreed, and I think the main difference here is that Clarke is the frontrunner.  Yes, it's been all actresses from open shows that have won for the past 30 years now, but almost always, there was no performance from a closed show that was really a threat to the far and away frontrunner that season.

For instance, looking back at the past 10 years, we have 6 actresses nominated from closed shows:

Kelli O'Hara in Bridges (who, while I know lots of people on this board wanted to win, was never at all an actual threat to Jessie Mueller who basically had the Tony in the bag from the moment Beautiful opened)

Mary Bridget Davies in A Night with Janis Joplin (see above; same year as Jessie Mueller)

Carolee Carmello in Scandalous (never a threat; the nomination was basically a way to recognize that show)

Laura Osnes in Bonnie and Clyde (same as Carmello)

Stephanie J. Block in Edwin Drood (maybe the closest thing to a real contender, but Patina Miller was still the far and away favorite that year)

Jan Maxwell in Follies (again, a lot of love for her performance, but Audra had that in the bag from the moment Porgy opened)

So while the closed stat is definitely something to note, I think this is a very different scenario than we've seen recently.  Clarke is still giving by far the most acclaimed performance of the season, so she certainly seems to have a great chance to break this streak.

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 4/28/22 at 11:43am

Normally I’d agree that the show being closed for so long could be an issue, but if not Sharon…who?!

[YvanEhtNioj]

Posted: 4/28/22 at 11:54am

I saw Mrs.Doubtfire last night for the first time. While I thought it was a corny, jumbled knock-off Tootsie..I think Rob will def get a Best Lead nomination. 

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 4/28/22 at 12:00pm

Broadway61004 said: "Stephanie J. Block in Edwin Drood (maybe the closest thing to a real contender, but Patina Miller was still the far and away favorite that year)"

Someone correct me if I’m off here, but wasn’t Osnes in Cinderella considered the runner up?

Anyway thinking of Block’s nod, it’s still weird to me that both Broadway productions had an actress with a clearly smaller role nominated in lead while Jasper’s actor was in featured.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/28/22 at 12:26pm

ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure said: "Broadway61004 said: "Stephanie J. Block in Edwin Drood (maybe the closest thing to a real contender, but Patina Miller was still the far and away favorite that year)"

Someone correct me if I’m off here, but wasn’t Osnes in Cinderella considered the runner up?

Anyway thinking of Block’s nod, it’s still weird to me that both Broadway productions had an actress with a clearly smaller role nominated in lead while Jasper’s actor was in featured."

Osnes would probably have been considered the runner up.  I meant of the 6 actresses from the closed shows that I listed, Block was probably the closest to actually having a shot at the award.  Most of the season, it was thought to be between Miller and Osnes, but right at the end there started to be a lot of momentum building for Block.  I don't know that she was ever a real threat to actually win it, but I put her chances higher than Davies, Osnes (for Bonnie and Clyde) or Carmello, for instance.  Maybe O'Hara and Maxwell had similar chances to her.

[fashionguru_23]

Posted: 4/28/22 at 1:11pm

I'm going to say it again, seeing as the award recipient has been announced (Robert E. Wankel), but I still think that Seth Rudetsky should  win the Isabelle Stevenson Tony Award for the Stars in the House project throughout the pandemic.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 5/4/22 at 10:58am

BWAY Baby2 said: "Patti Lupone was fine in Company- but is her small part really worthy of a Tony? Yes, she is Broadway royalty- and deservedly so- but I did not think her performance in Company was necessarily Tony worthy- I guess I have to se the competition- but I bet there are other performances that are more worthy of this honor."

It’s not an especially competitive category this year. There are some strong performances, to be sure, but none that really scream for a Tony WIN. I mean, I’d personally love to see one of the Caroline or Change women win – Levy, Lawrence, and Williams all gave fantastic performances, and none of them have won before. Same goes for Simard in Company, whose performance IMO is even more memorable than LuPone’s. But I don’t think any of them have quite enough leverage to beat out LuPone.

I agree that LuPone probably doesn’t need another Tony for Joanne. But I do think it’s a very strong performance. We may take it for granted, because she’s played the role before, she could do it in her sleep, and she’s not straying far from her usual bag of tricks. But she’s not phoning it in; it’s clear she and Elliott worked hard to bring this character to life, not just as a caricature.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 2:55pm

I feel like Lead Actress in a Play has been kind of nebulous so far, but I'm starting to feel good about this potential lineup: 

-Marylouise Parker
-Gabby Beans
-LaChanze
-Deirdre O'Connell 
-Emily Davis

With maybe Sarah Jessica Parker kicking out Davis? (I hope not, but I wonder how much voters will remember Is This a Room). 

I predict that (1) Ruth Negga won't manage to overcome the show she's in, (2) Rosalyn Ruff will get outshone by her co-star (despite being very good in the role) (3) Chicken and Biscuits will be forgotten, and (4) Debra Messing will get some well-deserved votes, but simply won't make the cut, unless she's the one to kick out Emily Davis, instead of SJP. 

[MrJNLong]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 3:31pm

JBroadway, those are my exact thoughts re: Lead Actress in a Play.  Really hoping Beans and Davis both make it in...

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 3:46pm

So we officially have four actors with buzz from Take Me Out competing in supporting. I could see any combination of them making it, who are we thinking is most likely?

[MrJNLong]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 4:21pm

That's a really good question.  There is a really good argument for each of them. Although Adams and Williams have the larger roles, they're not as showy as the other two. That's a really tough call.  I would maybe say Williams and Ferguson???

[JBroadway]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 4:30pm

Lead Actor in a Play is a tough one to call too. 

I haven't seen American Buffalo yet - are either/both of them likely to break in? 

Otherwise, it feels like David Morse is currently in the strongest lock to get nominated. It feels like he's the only one with the combination of buzz + not having to compete with his co-stars. Except maybe Ruben Santiago-Hudson? 

 

[kwoc91]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 4:53pm

I think if anyone from American Buffalo gets in, it will be Sam Rockwell.

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 5:06pm

Yeah Morse is safe, and I’d say the only way he loses is if only one of the Lehman Trilogy men makes the cut. Before I thought they’d all cancel each other out, but I’ve pulled a 180 since, I think all three make it. I’m predicting Rockwell to be the lone American Buffalo actor nominated. He’s apparently got the flashiest role and the best notices to boot.

Anyway, since I brought it up before, I’d say I’m expecting Take Me Out to get Ferguson and Williams nominated. In another year all four going featured might have screwed them out of maximizing their a turn nominations, but I think they would’ve struggled to break into this lead field.

[quizking101]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 5:33pm

ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure said: "Yeah Morse is safe, and I’d say the only way he loses is if only one of the Lehman Trilogy men makes the cut. Before I thought they’d all cancel each other out, but I’ve pulled a 180 since, I think all three make it. I’m predicting Rockwell to be the lone American Buffalo actor nominated. He’s apparently got the flashiest role and the best notices to boot.

Anyway, since I brought it up before, I’d say I’m expecting Take Me Out to get Ferguson and Williams nominated. In another year all four going featured might have screwed them out of maximizing their a turn nominations, but I think they would’ve struggled to break into this lead field."

See, out of the quartet from TAKE ME OUT, Ferguson is the safest bet, but I would sooner pick Adams as the second, followed by Oberholtzer. Williams honestly never came to cross my mind - not out of being bad, but because the others were better

 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 6:01pm

I'm tempted to predict Morse, Hudson, and Lehmenx3 but something about that combo feels too clean.

Adrian Lester had the least to do of the LEHMAN trio, imho, though I still don't think he misses. Godley was my personal MVP from the show.

I haven't seen this revival of AMERICAN BUFFALO, but it's still weird to me that they're considering Donny a lead and that Fishburne is first-billed.

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 5/5/22 at 7:05pm

Yeah I think Ferguson is the most likely, it could be any of the other three joining him, but I'm guessing Williams benefits from being the largest role and the next biggest name. What makes it tricky is that there doesn't seem to be a set consensus on the show's MVP.

As for Fishburne in American Buffalo, I can't speak as to the size of his role, but I get him being billed first. Rockwell and Criss may have had more success recently, but Fishburne's still the most recognizable name of the three.