2022 Tony Awards Predictions — Page 9

Bill Snibson said: "Now that the Funny Girl reviews are in, is there still a chance that Beanie would get a nomination before Katrina Lenk? I will be very upset if that happens. "

I’d be very surprised. Katrina’s reviews although mixed were better than Beanie’s.
Katrina also greatly improved her performance since opening night, so hopefully the nominating committee was able to see her improved performance.

I don't think you can count out the Six ladies. Still not sure how you choose between them, but I feel like 1 or even 2 of them might sneak into the race. It's Clarke's to lose, but not having a winner from a closed show in over 30 years is an interesting statistic that does not work in favor. Love Lenk, but winning a second Tony award for this performance doesn't feel right. Same with Sutton for her third. This is a strange category this year.

As for best actor, Billy Crystal did himself some favors with he reviews today. I still think it'll be Spivey though.

vfd88 said: "While Clarke obviously feels like a winner, I just can't shake the fact that Tony voters hate voting for performances from closed shows - the last one to win was Martin Short for Little Me all the way back in 1999. So I think it's probably Lenk, althoughKalukango stands a good chance if voters don't mind voting for a great performance in a mediocre show."

Tracy Letts actually won for Virginia Woolf in 2013, much more recent than 1999. Don’t count anyone out in a closed show this year.

iirc...

BRIDGES had the Actress stat going against it (I believe the last person to win Lead Actress in a Musical for a not-currently-running show was Angela Lansbury in GYPSY) as well as the Score stat (JRB for Parade had been the last time a show wasn't running won Best Score).

One of those two stats broke in 2014, the other could very well break this year.

jkcohen626 said: "I think that the open show pattern is definitely a factor, but it's not an end-all-be-all. When you have a performance as INCREDIBLE and a performer as massively talented as Sharon D. Clarke in Caroline, or Change, it becomes pretty easy to see a pattern being broken."

Agreed, and I think the main difference here is that Clarke is the frontrunner. Yes, it's been all actresses from open shows that have won for the past 30 years now, but almost always, there was no performance from a closed show that was really a threat to the far and away frontrunner that season.

For instance, looking back at the past 10 years, we have 6 actresses nominated from closed shows:

Kelli O'Hara in Bridges (who, while I know lots of people on this board wanted to win, was never at all an actual threat to Jessie Mueller who basically had the Tony in the bag from the moment Beautiful opened)

Mary Bridget Davies in A Night with Janis Joplin (see above; same year as Jessie Mueller)

Carolee Carmello in Scandalous (never a threat; the nomination was basically a way to recognize that show)

Laura Osnes in Bonnie and Clyde (same as Carmello)

Stephanie J. Block in Edwin Drood (maybe the closest thing to a real contender, but Patina Miller was still the far and away favorite that year)

Jan Maxwell in Follies (again, a lot of love for her performance, but Audra had that in the bag from the moment Porgy opened)

So while the closed stat is definitely something to note, I think this is a very different scenario than we've seen recently. Clarke is still giving by far the most acclaimed performance of the season, so she certainly seems to have a great chance to break this streak.

I saw Mrs.Doubtfire last night for the first time. While I thought it was a corny, jumbled knock-off Tootsie..I think Rob will def get a Best Lead nomination.

ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure said: "Broadway61004 said: "Stephanie J. Block in Edwin Drood (maybe the closest thing to a real contender, but Patina Miller was still the far and away favorite that year)"

Someone correct me if I’m off here, but wasn’t Osnes in Cinderella considered the runner up?

Anyway thinking of Block’s nod, it’s still weird to me that both Broadway productions had an actress with a clearly smaller role nominated in lead while Jasper’s actor was in featured."

Osnes would probably have been considered the runner up. I meant of the 6 actresses from the closed shows that I listed, Block was probably the closest to actually having a shot at the award. Most of the season, it was thought to be between Miller and Osnes, but right at the end there started to be a lot of momentum building for Block. I don't know that she was ever a real threat to actually win it, but I put her chances higher than Davies, Osnes (for Bonnie and Clyde) or Carmello, for instance. Maybe O'Hara and Maxwell had similar chances to her.

BWAY Baby2 said: "Patti Lupone was fine in Company- but is her small part really worthy of a Tony? Yes, she is Broadway royalty- and deservedly so- but I did not think her performance in Company was necessarily Tony worthy- I guess I have to se the competition- but I bet there are other performances that are more worthy of this honor."

It’s not an especially competitive category this year. There are some strong performances, to be sure, but none that really scream for a Tony WIN. I mean, I’d personally love to see one of the Caroline or Change women win – Levy, Lawrence, and Williams all gave fantastic performances, and none of them have won before. Same goes for Simard in Company, whose performance IMO is even more memorable than LuPone’s. But I don’t think any of them have quite enough leverage to beat out LuPone.

I agree that LuPone probably doesn’t need another Tony for Joanne. But I do think it’s a very strong performance. We may take it for granted, because she’s played the role before, she could do it in her sleep, and she’s not straying far from her usual bag of tricks. But she’s not phoning it in; it’s clear she and Elliott worked hard to bring this character to life, not just as a caricature.

JBroadway, those are my exact thoughts re: Lead Actress in a Play. Really hoping Beans and Davis both make it in...

That's a really good question. There is a really good argument for each of them. Although Adams and Williams have the larger roles, they're not as showy as the other two. That's a really tough call. I would maybe say Williams and Ferguson???

I think if anyone from American Buffalo gets in, it will be Sam Rockwell.

ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure said: "Yeah Morse is safe, and I’d say the only way he loses is if only one of the Lehman Trilogy men makes the cut. Before I thought they’d all cancel each other out, but I’ve pulled a 180 since, I think all three make it. I’m predicting Rockwell to be the lone American Buffalo actor nominated. He’s apparently got the flashiest role and the best notices to boot.

Anyway, since I brought it up before, I’d say I’m expecting Take Me Out to get Ferguson and Williams nominated. In another year all four going featured might have screwed them out of maximizing their a turn nominations, but I think they would’ve struggled to break into this lead field."

See, out of the quartet from TAKE ME OUT, Ferguson is the safest bet, but I would sooner pick Adams as the second, followed by Oberholtzer. Williams honestly never came to cross my mind - not out of being bad, but because the others were better