I just got back from a trip to NYC, during which I saw 9 shows. All 9 got SOs, which are meaningless at this point. The thing that was interesting to me was that ADHP2 got the least applause at the end off the show by a sizable margin. Part of that was due to the absence of individual bows, but CFA did not have individual bows, nor did OSLO. Not a very scientific barometer, but from 50 years of theatergoing, that generally means something. I will be very surprised if this lasts till 2018 because I suspect that a lot of people are going to be a little disappointed.
Why disappointed? For the same reason that I was. I thought the play was entertaining, the ideas were very challenging, the acting was solid, I was never bored, but I just didn't see it as a full-blown play. It was too pat, an outline for the real thing. I would actually encourage the author to take another look at it, despite its current success, because it could be so much more than it really is.
Nevertheless, I am thinking that it IS going to win the Tony as will Laurie Metcalfe, for three reasons: (1) it is a (rare) surprise, dramatic hit opening at the very end of the season, following disastrous preview business; (2) the midnight show was brilliant marketing; and, (3) for some reason, people seem to think that Metcalf is more overdue for a Tony than Laura Linney, who has the same number of nominations (and whose performance I thought was possibly her best work to date).