Posted: 10/26/15 at 7:50pm
3 or possibly 4 if there is a tie
School of Rock
On Your Feet
Waitress
Tuck Everlasting
Bright Star
Amelie
American Psycho
Shuffle Along (unless its a revival)
Possibly Gotta Dance and/or The Bandstand
It seems pretty clear Amazing Grace and Allegiance are out of the race.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 7:53pm
On Your Feet, American Psycho, Waitress
Posted: 10/26/15 at 7:53pm
Why is Allegiance out? Sorry, but I haven't been keeping up to date with this season yet...
Posted: 10/26/15 at 7:56pm
I think School of Rock and American Psycho will get in. The others will have to battle it to the death.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:15pm
Or just work towards their potential.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:22pm
On Your Feet, American Psycho, Waitress
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:26pm
Yes, why are your ruling out allegiance?
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:32pm
because it hasn't gotten the best reception.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:34pm
I reckon AMERICAN PSYCHO, TUCK EVERLASTING and ON YOUR FEET
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:35pm
its a very competitive category. I think Shuffle Along is going to be quite an event as well.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:41pm
Shuffle Along unless it goes to the revival category if so then
Tuck Everlasting
Waitress
School of Rock
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:45pm
Yes by all means, before half these shows play their first performances, please go right ahead and give them Tony nominations.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:49pm
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:51pm
I think Allegiance could go the way of The Last Ship: high profile musical, opens in fall, star like Sting/Takei attached, flawed but earnest, opinions across the board. Then maybe: closes in January, gets a couple nominations but is ultimately forgotten by Tony voters. Personally I enjoyed both shows, so I'm not judging.
Based on what little I've heard about all of those musicals, I think American Psycho and Waitress seem to be strong contenders. No idea yet about Shuffle Along, since nobody has seen it. On Your Feet probably has a shot, given that the Tony voters have historically enjoyed big, fun, jukebox musicals. School of Rock is gonna be a crowd-pleaser for sure, but I think it's too early to say whether it will be of high enough quality to get a nod.
I agree that it's very early, but almost all the eligible shows have played elsewhere before Broadway. So it's not like nobody has seen them.
Updated On: 10/26/15 at 08:51 PM
Posted: 10/26/15 at 8:57pm
all of the musicals on the list are high profile. Bright Star has Steve Martin writing the book, and got nice reviews out of town. School of Rock is a big Andrew Lloyd Webber rock musical, which also got a very nice reception from the Gramercy. On Your Feet is a real crowd pleaser, and Tuck, Waitress, Amelie, and American Psycho all got nice reviews and have high profile people attached. and of course Shuffle Along which is flooded with talent. You would think in a season with Hamilton in it, new musicals would back off. I guess it just made them want to come in even more!
Updated On: 10/26/15 at 08:57 PM
Posted: 10/26/15 at 9:24pm
I agree that we should just wait for the rest of the shows this season to open first. I don't think we should really be making our predictions based on who's involved with what show.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 10:13pm
Most of the shows have opened elsewhere. I've seen a good amount of them already. Why should we wait to predict? People predict Oscar nominees like a year in advance. Also, it doesn't really matter as we all know Hamilton already has it in the bag.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 10:43pm
^We also don't even know what kind of modifications will be made to them yet.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 10:59pm
Hamilton
School of Rock
On Your Feet
and 1 or 2 more
Posted: 10/26/15 at 11:05pm
Waitress is in for sure
caught it at the ART over the summer and it's a wonderful, smart, crowd pleaser with a gorgeous score.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 11:23pm
Im totally fine with an early prediction game and agree most have had out of town tryouts and been seen by many,,,its fun to crystal ball!!!
Hamilton
Waitress
On Your Feet
bright star
maybe Shuffle if in new musical category
Personally excited to also see allegience, and school of rock
Posted: 10/26/15 at 11:35pm
There is also at least one new musical not mentioned yet in this thread that will be announcing shortly. It's hard to predict anything when there are sure to be a bunch of wrenches thrown into the works before Tony time...and before a lot of these shows have even opened.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 11:36pm
Hamilton
School of Rock
Tuck Everlasting
Waitress
In the event of a fifth nominee: American Pyscho
Posted: 10/26/15 at 11:38pm
TheGingerBreadMan said: "In the event of a fifth nominee: American Pyscho"
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I got the impression from various sources of word-of-mouth that American Psycho was very well-received in London. I wouldn't have put it as my 5th slot based on what I've heard.
Posted: 10/26/15 at 11:45pm
JBroadway said: "TheGingerBreadMan said: "In the event of a fifth nominee: American Pyscho"
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I got the impression from various sources of word-of-mouth that American Psycho was very well-received in London. I wouldn't have put it as my 5th slot based on what I've heard.
I don't disagree, actually. The one thing holding me back is that London audiences can be fairly different from Broadway audiences sometimes, but I don't doubt that it will be well received here as well. I would actually say that Psycho and Tuck are interchangeable in my list, I could easily see Tuck taking the fifth spot. The only show that I think we can all agree on as being an absolute shoe-in is Hamilton (obviously), the rest of my list (and likely everyone else's) is just early predictions, as many of these shows haven't even opened yet.
