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I think Allegiance could go the way of The Last Ship: high profile musical, opens in fall, star like Sting/Takei attached, flawed but earnest, opinions across the board. Then maybe: closes in January, gets a couple nominations but is ultimately forgotten by Tony voters. Personally I enjoyed both shows, so I'm not judging.
Based on what little I've heard about all of those musicals, I think American Psycho and Waitress seem to be strong contenders. No idea yet about Shuffle Along, since nobody has seen it. On Your Feet probably has a shot, given that the Tony voters have historically enjoyed big, fun, jukebox musicals. School of Rock is gonna be a crowd-pleaser for sure, but I think it's too early to say whether it will be of high enough quality to get a nod.
I agree that it's very early, but almost all the eligible shows have played elsewhere before Broadway. So it's not like nobody has seen them.
all of the musicals on the list are high profile. Bright Star has Steve Martin writing the book, and got nice reviews out of town. School of Rock is a big Andrew Lloyd Webber rock musical, which also got a very nice reception from the Gramercy. On Your Feet is a real crowd pleaser, and Tuck, Waitress, Amelie, and American Psycho all got nice reviews and have high profile people attached. and of course Shuffle Along which is flooded with talent. You would think in a season with Hamilton in it, new musicals would back off. I guess it just made them want to come in even more!
I agree that we should just wait for the rest of the shows this season to open first. I don't think we should really be making our predictions based on who's involved with what show.
Most of the shows have opened elsewhere. I've seen a good amount of them already. Why should we wait to predict? People predict Oscar nominees like a year in advance. Also, it doesn't really matter as we all know Hamilton already has it in the bag.
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle
There is also at least one new musical not mentioned yet in this thread that will be announcing shortly. It's hard to predict anything when there are sure to be a bunch of wrenches thrown into the works before Tony time...and before a lot of these shows have even opened.
TheGingerBreadMan said: "In the event of a fifth nominee: American Pyscho"
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I got the impression from various sources of word-of-mouth that American Psycho was very well-received in London. I wouldn't have put it as my 5th slot based on what I've heard.
JBroadway said: "TheGingerBreadMan said: "In the event of a fifth nominee: American Pyscho"
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I got the impression from various sources of word-of-mouth that American Psycho was very well-received in London. I wouldn't have put it as my 5th slot based on what I've heard.
I don't disagree, actually. The one thing holding me back is that London audiences can be fairly different from Broadway audiences sometimes, but I don't doubt that it will be well received here as well. I would actually say that Psycho and Tuck are interchangeable in my list, I could easily see Tuck taking the fifth spot. The only show that I think we can all agree on as being an absolute shoe-in is Hamilton (obviously), the rest of my list (and likely everyone else's) is just early predictions, as many of these shows haven't even opened yet.