Posted: 3/28/26 at 6:23pm
So we’ve got CATS, Ragtime, Rocky and Chess. What gets nominated? What wins? Would love to hear the why behind your answers! Also, what’s everyone hearing from industry people and Tony voters!
Posted: 3/28/26 at 6:26pm
For this category, Tony voters favor productions that make them think differently about a title.
CATS: THE JELLICLE BALL it is.
Updated On: 3/28/26 at 06:26 PM
Posted: 3/28/26 at 6:49pm
Reviews could shift the narrative if critics disagree but I feel like Cats has the strongest wave of consensus behind it right now.
Based on first previews I get the sense Rocky will be a bit more divisive across the board, and while Ragtime was also received very well, the production’s vision is pretty uninventive compared to what Cats is accomplishing and that will have an effect on voters.
Updated On: 3/28/26 at 06:49 PM
Posted: 3/28/26 at 9:50pm
My vote is for Cats (transformational, genuinely some of the most fun I've ever had at a show, and is extremely politically apt right now) and also I honest to god was like "wait, they're reviving Rocky? The boxing musical? How did I miss this?" while reading this thread lmao
Posted: 3/29/26 at 8:16am
Since there are five eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be three nominees. A fourth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes.
I agree with the consensus that the race is likely coming down to Cats: The Jellicle Ball and Ragtime. While I can see the latter benefitting from how differently it hits now given the show’s timely nature, I'd still give the edge to the former. Especially since it does fit the mold of some of the more recent winners of this category as this big reimagining like The Color Purple, Once on This Island, Company, and Sunset Boulevard.
As for what takes the third slot, early reports for Rocky Horror suggests it at least has potential acting nominations for Luke Evans and Amber Gray. Chess does have potential acting noms for Nicholas Christopher and Lea Michele, but I’m not sure if either could make the cut.
Gold Derby currently lists only eight eligible candidates for Best Lead Actor in a Musical. Unless there ends up being more, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there’s a close race between two contenders within three votes. If that category only has four this year, I can see the lineup consisting of Evans, Henry, Tutty, and Uranowitz, but no Christopher. As for Michele, a Best Lead Actress in a Musical nomination for her is gonna have to depend on how the nominating committee feels about Chess overall. Especially since there are people out there who feel her singing in the show is great, but not so much her acting.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 8:31am
It's going to come down to Cats vs. Ragtime. I, personally, would love nothing more than to see Ragtime take home best revival. However, we've seen in the past that Tony Voters love a boldly reimagined revival that turns classic material on its head... (i.e. Pippin in 2013, The Color Purple in 2016, Oklahoma! in 2019, and Sunset Boulevard in 2025 to name a few). This new revival of Cats falls right into this pattern.
As much as I love Ragtime as show and think that this new production is very successful, there's no denying it's a safer adaptation that doesn't take bold or wide swings with the direction.
Updated On: 3/29/26 at 08:31 AM
Posted: 3/29/26 at 9:10am
Something will win because something has to, but this just hasn't been a good season for musicals, revival or new. It's a surprisingly strong year for both new and revived plays, probably in no small part because they aren't as expensive to produce, but not for musicals.
Ragtime seems like the best of them but maybe Rocky Horror will surprise us.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 9:16am
It’s going to be CATS v. RAGTIME and, unless people are going to vote for uninspired sentiment, CATS has this one absolutely in the bag. There is no denying the power of a fully reinvented revival.
The last slot being between CHESS and ROCKY HORROR is going to be a tough pill to swallow since a nomination can already do a lot. I do think it would swing toward CHESS as the underdog story and the biggest gamble that seems to pay off in dividends.
For Leading Actor, I could definitely see them trying to petition Rousouli for TITANIQUE up to Leading since it’s a less crowded field and his role is prominent enough where it could be justified, thus granting the 5th nomination. Should that not happen, RAGTIME is going to push for Henry over Uranowitz, because they don’t want to split the vote - so I’m betting on Henry, Christopher, Evans, and Tutty.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 9:34am
A significant chunk of the voters are from out-of-town, so I think that is something to keep in mind as well. I think Ragtime has it, though. Cats: The Jellicle Ball is still Cats at the end of the day, so some voters could be alienated based off that.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 9:45am
TennisFan said: "A significant chunk of the voters are from out-of-town, so I think that is something to keep in mind as well."
Wasn't it revealed about a decade ago that the out-of-town voters only make up about 10% of the voting bloc?
Posted: 3/29/26 at 10:40am
It will be CATS THE JELLICLE BALL, deservedly so.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 10:57am
quizking101 said: "It’s going to be CATS v. RAGTIME and, unless people are going to vote for uninspired sentiment, CATS has this one absolutely in the bag. There is no denying the power of a fully reinvented revival.
The last slot being between CHESS and ROCKY HORROR is going to be a tough pill to swallow since a nomination can already do a lot. I do think it would swing toward CHESS as the underdog story and the biggest gamble that seems to pay off in dividends.
For Leading Actor, I could definitely see them trying to petition Rousouli for TITANIQUE up to Leading since it’s a less crowded field and his role is prominent enough where it could be justified, thus granting the 5th nomination. Should that not happen, RAGTIME is going to push for Henry over Uranowitz, because they don’t want to split the vote - so I’m betting on Henry, Christopher, Evans, and Tutty."
I agree with you re Cats v Ragtime but curious, how does a show "push" one actor over another in the same category. I would think that a show's producers would be VERY happy with as many nomination$ as possible, no?
Posted: 3/29/26 at 11:14am
Usually it’s a matter of highlighting specific performances via advertising and television airtime. Joshua Henry has (deservedly) got the lion’s share of the attention out of all the performers in the show, and while Uranowitz is considered for the leading category, there isn’t a ton out there about him. Therefore, since the category as it stands will likely only have 4 nominees instead of 5, they may hedge their bets on getting the more certain performer getting a nomination.
The last time the category only had 4 nominees and two from the same show made the cut was, ironically, RAGTIME in 1998, though there were only 5 or 6 eligible nominees that year. This year, BA/M is going to be a blockbuster race where even the likeliest front runner may not be a sure thing.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 11:32am
TennisFan said: "A significant chunk of the voters are from out-of-town, so I think that is something to keep in mind as well. I think Ragtime has it, though. Cats: The Jellicle Ball is still Cats at the end of the day, so some voters could be alienated based off that."
The fact that it is Cats kind of helps it here- it's generally considered to be a take that makes people really reconsider the material. That's a feat, particularly with a show like Cats that has deeply set expectations and has become something of a punchline- even Tony Kushner dunked on it.
Updated On: 3/29/26 at 11:32 AM
Posted: 3/29/26 at 2:16pm
Obviously Cats and Ragtime are getting nominated with Cats being the likely winner.
For the last nominee, I was leaning towards Rocky Horror but the early reports from that show have me leaning back towards Chess at the moment. We'll see how Rocky Horror does through previews and with reviews. It could go either way at this point for sure.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 4:36pm
I’m kinda surprised I’m in the minority in thinking that RAGTIME has the edge over CATS.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 5:42pm
WiCkEDrOcKS said: "I’m kinda surprised I’m in the minority in thinking that RAGTIME has the edge over CATS."
Ragtime does absolutely nothing new with the material. In fact, a lot of the time it undermines it or completely misinterprets it (Wheels of a Dream with no car???) It was enjoyable because it's a good show and Ahrens and Flaherty are brilliant, but unlike with previous productions, it left me emotionally cold. And sure, Joshua Henry can SING, but his acting was pretty nonexistent, and several others are totally miscast. I've seen so many Lear DeBessonet productions in the last few years, and I can't for the life of me understand why she keeps getting hired. All of her productions are so uninventive and often fail to nail the tone - Once Upon a Mattress was slow where it should've been zany and fast. Into the Woods focused so much on the comedy that none of the heart came through. And Ragtime gets swallowed up by the massive Vivian Beaumont stage.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 6:10pm
WiCkEDrOcKS said: "I’m kinda surprised I’m in the minority in thinking that RAGTIME has the edge over CATS."
As I mentioned earlier, I can see Ragtime benefitting from how differently it hits now given the story's timely nature. I'm sure many would especially love to see the show itself finally win a Best Production award from the Tonys after losing out the previous two times it was in contention. But if it loses to Cats, it'll be another example of how voters by and large just don't think like that. They're just at the end of the day voting for what they liked most, which has proven to be key more often that not.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 6:29pm
I don't feel like Ragtime hits that different now. It was always relevant and, sadly, always will be.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 11:28pm
By my analysis it’s a battle between prestige (Ragtime) and inventiveness (Cats). Historically inventiveness has won out, but I think it’s a closer call than others seem to.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 11:35pm
Voter said: "WiCkEDrOcKS said: "I’m kinda surprised I’m in the minority in thinking that RAGTIME has the edge over CATS."
Ragtime does absolutely nothing new with the material. In fact, a lot of the time it undermines it or completely misinterprets it (Wheels of a Dream with no car???)It was enjoyable because it's a good show and Ahrens and Flaherty are brilliant, but unlike with previous productions, it left me emotionally cold. And sure, Joshua Henry can SING, but his acting was pretty nonexistent, and several others are totally miscast. I've seen so many LearDeBessonetproductions in the last few years, and I can't for the life of me understand why she keeps getting hired. All of her productions are so uninventive and often fail to nail the tone - Once Upon a Mattress was slow where it should've been zany and fast. Into the Woods focused so much on the comedy that none of the heart came through. And Ragtime gets swallowed up by the massive Vivian Beaumont stage."
The fact that Ragtime gets "swallowed up" by the massive stage indicates maybe this is not the best revival of this show. The SHOW is massive.
Posted: 3/29/26 at 11:50pm
RippedMan said: "The fact that Ragtime gets "swallowed up" by the massive stage indicates maybe this is not the best revival of this show. The SHOW is massive."
My only criticism of this production was that it needed about 3 more bodies on stage! It just felt a little small, and having a distinctive actor playing a key role also play multiple other characters within a span of minutes didn’t fit the style/tone of the show (yes, I am aware that is how Ragtime is always done; this particular instance was disconcerting).
Posted: 3/29/26 at 11:56pm
bwaylvsong1 said: "By my analysis it’s a battle between prestige (Ragtime) and inventiveness (Cats). Historically inventiveness has won out, but I think it’s a closer call than others seem to."
I would call Ragtime: The Musical and Lincoln Center prestige. This particular production of Ragtime or Debessonet's direction (on this or otherwise) is not.
It's CTJB
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