I should remember that Tony nominations really do matter. It seems like especially good news for Schmigadoon!, as the box office spike was pronounced. Good news for Rocky Horror too.
I think I can retire my unlikely theory about box office returns possibly mattering in the Best Musical race. The Lost Boys is making the most money, but unless things change in upcoming weeks, things are close enough that Tony voters will just pick the show they like most - which is almost certainly what they would have done anyway.
Wicked’s weakness is interesting to me, because it really does seem like the second film damaged it. I am sure the show will be fine once we hit the summer months, but this does seem like a musical that was hurt by its film adaptation instead of boosted by it. I think the second act of the stage musical is better than the movie, if for no other reason than it moves at a rapid clip. But I am not sure it is distaste for the film, assuming that’s even a factor, that is hurting the stage musical now. Maybe people are a little Wicked-ed out?
While I enjoyed Cats: The Jellicle Ball, I think my relative unfamiliarity with Cats (only saw it once, on Broadway HD) got in the way of my enjoyment more than my relative unfamiliarity with ballroom. The story made total sense to me, and was both moving and fun, but I know people in my party who found it exhausting by the end. One of the reasons I wanted to see the show was that I thought it would be a unique experience - unlikely to be replicated. I got my money’s worth. Will it recoup? I doubt it. Most musicals don’t anyway.
Updated On: 5/13/26 at 04:13 AM