JBroadway said: "GreasedLightning said: "By this measure, Frozen was also a “certifiable hit” and we all know how that ended."
I agree with your sentiment, but Frozen was a strange example to pick to make your point. By normal metrics, Frozen's grosses were pretty great throughout most of its run. It's very likely that it recouped its capitalization, and then some. Which, in standard industry terms, would indeed label it a "certified hit."
From what I understand, the only reason it was cast in a financially disappointing light was that Disney seems to use a different model for whether their shows are raking in ENOUGH profit to be deemed worth keeping open, and Frozen saw a comparative decline in demand. But the production was in a financial situation that most shows would dearly envy.
In any case, your overall point stands: Funny Girl may be doing well now, but it will have to keep it up for a good while if they want to recoup, and I agree it's unlikely.
"
The thing that was hidden in Frozen's grosses was INSANE secondary market tickets that caused advance sales to tank because following the poor reviews, you could get a prime orchestra or mezzanine seat for a fraction of what they were bought for. Once the scalpers caught wind of this, they stopped buying altogether. The same was the case for The Band's Visit. Secondary market sellers bought up TONS of seats when the show was announced and opened to those rapturous reviews. And because The Band's Visit was what it was, WOM was massively polarizing, thus the secondary market TANKED. There were often full rows empty from unsold secondary market seats. The point being, a few years post-Hamilton saw a real issue with this and it most definitely hindered some shows' ability to keep their wraps high and their pricing integrity because it was constantly undermined by cheaper, better seats on StubHub and the like.
While yes, Frozen's initial grosses were high, the show was capitalized somewhere between $25 and $30million, and lets not forget they paid to have the St. James expanded to fit the show. So, no, it's not likely it recouped its investment in the time that it ran. Not even close. That said, they're likely printing money on the road, which will help mitigate any losses attributed to Broadway specifically, and they may now be out of the red.