Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 6/25/17 — Page 2

Jarethan said: "Ironic that Indecent may have been the biggest beneficiary of the Tony Awards. Groundhogs Day and War Paint were hurt by the lousy numbers they did. Disappointed that Bandstand appears to have gotten only a tiny shot in the arm; but, on the other hand...the Tonys are probably keeping that company employed for the summer, which is a plus.



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You cannot infer from this data that War Paint was hurt by their performance at the Tony Awards - for all we know their grosses could have been even lower right now if they didn't perform. The advance was already slowing before the Tonys took place. It still looks like they have some potentially challenging times ahead.

If GROUNDHOG DAY is regularly pulling in 62-ish percent of its gross, could they still close it early because the production is so expensive and they appear not to be making money?? Or should I anticipate an end-of-year closing date...?

LOL. Preach, dramamama. So right.

Furthermore, let's note that educated guesses are impossible based on the metric or the incorrect premise of "regularity." The percentage of the potential gross is an absolutely meaningless figure. The only relevant number is the net gross, which in this case is about $730k. Armed with that number, one cannot possibly make an educated guess without having a sense of what the nut is. Trying to make an educated guess about a show's viability based on % of potential is like guessing if the Yankees will will the world series based on the number of times its batters walk.

qolbinau said: "Jarethan said: "Ironic that Indecent may have been the biggest beneficiary of the Tony Awards. Groundhogs Day and War Paint were hurt by the lousy numbers they did. Disappointed that Bandstand appears to have gotten only a tiny shot in the arm; but, on the other hand...the Tonys are probably keeping that company employed for the summer, which is a plus.



"

You cannot infer from this data that War Paint was hurt by their performance at the Tony Awards - for all we know their grosses could have been even lower right now if they didn't perform. The advance was already slowing before the Tonys took place. It still looks like they have some potentially challenging times ahead.

I stand by my position...they would have benefitted positively if the TV watchers who attend the theatre liked the number they saw...which they did not. I am sure the number was chosen so they could showcase both leads in a few minutes, but it came across as awful on the home screen.

Jarethan said: "I stand by my position...they would have benefitted positively if the TV watchers who attend the theatre liked the number they saw...which they did not."

You presume to speak for quite a number of people.

re the impact or lack thereof for warpaint's Tony performance.

while it is true that we cannot presume, based on one person's take, the answer, it might surprise some of you to know that there are in fact very reliable metrics for a non-subjective assessment, based on social media data. And guess what? That data agrees with Jarethan.

HogansHero said: "re the impact or lack thereof for warpaint's Tony performance.

while it is true that we cannot presume, based on one person's take, the answer, it might surprise some of you to know that there are in fact very reliable metrics for a non-subjective assessment, based on social media data. And guess what? That data agrees with Jarethan."

I think you can decide whether the reaction to the performance on social media was positive/negative, but not extrapolating it to the subset people who regularly attend the theatre or the further subset of those who were on the fence about buying a War Paint ticket.

About 20 years ago, I moved away from NYC because of a job. Prior to that time, I saw everything and if I liked a show, I saw it more than once; if I loved it, I saw it multiple times. That appears to be true of many of the posters on this site. Living outside of NYC complicates the scenario...you only have so many slots available when you only visit 2 - 3 times a year. And you hate to waste a slot, which is 'more precious than $$' when making choices. As an out-of-towner quasi-tourist, I would say that the War Paint and Groundhog numbers greatly reduced the likelihood that I would use one of those slots for either of those shows. (And I still manage to see 40 - 50% of the productions each season, something that most tourists and I'll venture lot of fairly serious local theater-goers don't do).

I really would love for both shows to be successful because I for one don't like the increasing number of 'family' shows and jukebox musicals that to me are clogging our theaters. (Yeah, I know all about the economics, but I don't have to like those realities). Sure, 'family; shows have been around for a long time now, but the sheer number is increasing. Next season, limited theatre space is going to be taken by glorified children's shows: Lion King, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Aladdin, Anastasia (I see it in October, so I may change my assessment, but this production is ultimately based on a cartoon), Sponge Bob, and whatever I am forgetting. I want GD and WP to be monster hits, so we get more adult productions with new scores on Broadway. But, I also have to want to see them; and, the Tony numbers were buzz-kills.

(I know we have gotten CFA, Evan Hansen, Hamilton, etc., the past few years and will always get serious musicals; I'd just rather see more of those and less of Charlie and Spongebob). But, only having the opportunity to see say 17 - 20 productions a year in NYC (and less some years), I am still going to go to the shows that appeal to me; and this season was amazing, so I did not get to see some shows I wanted to see, e.g., Sweat, Present Laughter; so, the Tony Awards helped me with some decisions. Now, if they are ever sent on the road, I will see them there, not because I particularly want to, but because I love live theatre and would not be constrained by scheduling limitations, as are many occasional attendees.

Given all of the above, I believe WP and GD were hurt by their Tony performances.

War Paint might have been hurt by the Tony performance for the reasons you proposed but what I'm suggesting is it's very difficult to know from this data whether it was or not - the only thing we can be sure of is that the Tony performance didn't magically keep the show afloat last week. But this isn't the same thing as knowing whether the Tony performance helped at all or not (or hurt) - given the natural tendency for shows to decline in sales over time (as I observed War Paint's advance was doing even before the Tony awards) the drop might be better explained by this than the Tony performance - and it is impossible to know from this data whether the grosses would be even lower right now if the Tony performance never happened.

Did nobody else notice that Book of Mormon, which is usually in the Top 5, has dropped down to 10th highest gross this week?

ACL2006 said: "MORMON isn't a top ticket anymore. Tickets are easily accessible and they don't command premium prices much these days."

It had the fifth highest average ticket price last week. Not too shabby.

But, its potential gross did drop starting in June from 1,345,936 to 1,192,364.

Until you remember their capitalization was north of $16 million and their weekly nut is well over $675k